Cheltenham Festival
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On a line through What A Friend who appeared to run his race and The Giant Bolster he has run to his rating of 182, in giving them 10 pounds.
The second has clearly improved since last season and has run to around 170 and will have an each way chance if progressing from that run.
The second has clearly improved since last season and has run to around 170 and will have an each way chance if progressing from that run.
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Plus Long Run found more when the second came near him and was idling.
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Except, he's run close to form with exactly the same horses that have been overrated by the mistake people are making overrating the 11yo Denman... What A Friend 163 makes Burton 166+ Long Run 177 (Bolster 162, 2lb below his 2m5f Cheltenham form but 9lb above his rating v Rupert over this c and d)- could just as easily be 3lb lower and LR still 174 but I'd accept 177 on basis he traveled more smoothly and jumped better on this flat galloping track.
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A good enough run with being thoroughly convincing imo. A couple of bookies knocked him out to 5/2.
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*without
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Maybe worth noting the poor form of odds on favourites in this race as well, a fair few been gubbed over the last decade
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Just done a trends and stats for the gold cup and yes as Long Run has now got a win under his belt for the season he is 10 from 10. roll on a few weeks and he will win no doubt in my mind.
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statsboyz
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I believe that was the best gold cup form we'll see this year. I expect the Gold Cup to finish Long Run, Burton Port and Kauto Star in that order. Although if they considering Burton as a GN horse how much improvement will he find for the extra distance?
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well you should know
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I got the impression Burton Port would improve plenty for the run and for the extra distance/stamina test of the Gold Cup. He was doing all his best work at the end (just as in the Hennessey 2 years ago). Keep in mind Long Run should have been much more race fit than BP was today.
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He probably will improve plenty,and he needs to.
Be interesting to know how fit he was today,i mean 10lb more on GC day in relation to Long Run,but then again a first run for a long time. Anyway makes the race more interesting. |
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Burton Port goes very well fresh, so I wouldn't necessarily expect lots of (fitness) improvement. He's clearly progressive though, the time off might even have done him good.
If he was mine, I'd probably give Cheltenham a miss and concentrate on Aintree, he's virtually a handicap good thing because he'll stay forever. But of course he's not without a chance in the GC so it's a dilemma. He does prefer decent ground, which he'll probably get in either race, but that might be another thing that swayed them to run (or not) at Cheltenham. Hell of an effort on first run in 14 months whatever. Showed more speed than I thought he had. |
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Budd - i thought he looked pretty fit pre-race, but that can be misleading!
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Wouldn't be the first horse to scramble home in this race, giving weight away, that went on to win the Gold Cup
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Nicky Henderson thinks Burton port is to small for the national, gold cup the plan.
interesting quote from hemmings after race: "Barry said that´s me booked for the Gold Cup. He said the horse took a big blow twice in the race, the last time going to the last! It´s got to be the Gold Cup after that if he is all right. He wasn´t match fit today." |
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Burton Port has been working really well fwiw and was expected to go v well today hence the plunge on him. I think Long Runs performance today has been underestimated and it will be those 2 again fighting out the Gold Cup. If it was Kauto or Denman everyone would say fantastic but the racing world hasn't really taken to Long Run and try to play him down. He truly is an exceptional horse.
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Maybe you're right MM. I'm sure you're right the racing world hasn't really taken to Long Run.
He has some way to go to be "exceptional" IMO, at least in the sense I think you mean it. All Gold Cup winners are exceptional. But he has a way to go to be exceptional among Gold Cup winners. Another CGC or two and/or another King George or two would help. Dessie was exceptional, so was Kauto. Denman might be. Long Run isn't, yet. |
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I believe he is. To win a King George/Gold Cup at the age he did with an amateur sat on his back is an exceptional feat. Even if he never won another race I would put him down as an exceptional horse. He would look different gravy with a pro on board. SWC does well to say it's not his job etc. but he makes Long Run look so much more untidy than he actually is. He's a bit of a freak.
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MM - I'm with you on that entirely, and if he fencing gets sorted, we'll see something even better!
I'm surprised at the amount of people that doubt his star quality and don't believe he's even a 180 chaser...if that jumping improves, he could even be pushing 190 come Kempton! When he bolts home next month, he'll be a dual Gold Cup winner at seven...has that been done before? |
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Don't even believe he's a 180 chaser? Give it a rest. You usually get about one, or at best two, 180 chasers a decade, the fact we've just had 3 at once is suspicious enough. Make it 4 and you'll have me convinced we need a global 10lb downgrade!
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Hugh - He is a star. I also believe he's a 180 chaser. But words like "great", "exceptional" and "legend" are thrown around like sweets nowadays, in all sports. I think Long Run has some way to go to be in that category. At the moment he's just an above average Gold Cup winner (like Imperial Commander - was he great?).
I'm not sure why being a dual Gold Cup winner at 7 is any better than being it at 8 or 9? If he goes on to win 3 or 4 then sure.... All that said, I realise this is even more subjective than most discussions we have on here and utterly unprovable one way or the other. |
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TLU - without a doubt for me...it's the Neptune Collonges & Mr.Mulligan of the game that need to be downgraded!
PS - there were FOUR in last year's Gold Cup that are definitely in the best dozen 3M chasers of the last 30 odd years! I WANT Kauto Star to win next month but I firmly believe Long Run will really put them to the sword in style! |
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Strontium - regarding Imperial Commander...his Gold Cup victory was a GREAT performance and arguably the best Cheltenham stayers performance I've seen!
I do baulk at calling him in the same breath as Kauto Star & Desert Orchid, but how can you not be convinced after THAT ONE performance? As for Long Run...he's achieved nothing compared to Kauto Star yet, but he's undoubtedly a class act to me, and I don't even like him that much! |
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evening hugh lad
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Howdi Howdi - you missed a good picture quiz a couple of nights ago from Shay666
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I don't do mucky pictures Hugh
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You going all four days of the festival? ( i went to newbury today christ the traffic!!)
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Yes Hugh, IC put in a great performance but my view is that one great performance does not make a horse (or any sporstman) great.
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nor in music look at Chesney Hawkes one minute name in stars the next playing the arse of a donkey in a panto
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Howdi - I'm almost embarrassed to tell you that I've only been to the Festival ONCE!
I just didn't like it with crowds of pissheads everywhere you looked! Tuesday 1985, but I backed See You Then at 16/1 though that was seriously tempered by the stewards decision not to disqualify Rose Ravine...absolutely gutted |
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ive lost my racing mate this year he seems to have lost interest if you fancy a day there this year i'm your man so to speak
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been racing three times this year by myself first time in 10 years not quite the same
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Howdi - I live a five minute journey from Aintree and I've NEVER been the National
 Much prefer being a home-bird with the DVD recorder at the ready PS - I often went racing by myself when I was 14! I've done all that and the course just isn't the same place it used to be  |
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out of interest how old are you hugh ?
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46, and I've been obsessed with racing since I was 14!
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i lost my spread bet of 77
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Spread bet on my age?
You're not that far out...I was thinking like a pensioner when I was in my 20's |
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lol Hugh
You know only to well that you're one of my favourites  |
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shame we cant get you to the races
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