Cheltenham Festival
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Cracking run today. With the gold cup looking fairly weak i wonder if trainer would be tempted to run him in that instead of hcap chase (which he looks fairly treated). I could easily see him powering up the hill to grab a place when others have cried enough. Just once I would love to see another jockey on him over fences as i dont think Jan really presents him correctly to a fence especially in the later stages of a race
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Replies: 31
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I've been hoping to see Mr Faltjesek replaced for the last 2-3 yrs on this horse with little success!
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I know its so frustrating. When he's booted into one he's usually okay but it near the end of a race when Jan looks to be tiring and trys to let the horse fiddle, this is when he takes them by the roots. Horse has a huge engine, would love to see a strong jock make the horse's mind up for him from start to finish. i reckon theres 15 to 25 lbs of untapped potential granted a really clear round. Would love to see what Nicholls or Mullins would do with him
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He runs Cheltenham particularly well, but he's got absolutely loads to find with even the second teir of horses in the Gold Cup whereas he's be quite nicely weighted for the Will Hill Hcap.
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loads to find is an understatement, more chance of it getting lapped than finishing placed
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i think hes set to go well in a handicap, forget the gc though
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I disagree. I think the smaller field of the gold cup may take pressure off his jumping. He flew home in the RSA in 2010 after an awful round of jumping. He clearly relishes the hill and i dont think his rating reflects his potential given stronger handling. Anyway i suppose its all academic as no doubt Jan will be on board whichever race he contests.
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he has at least 2 stone to find and he wont pluck it out of the sky or lick it off the ground. he was no match for midnight chase and midnight hase has proven even he falls quite a distance short of gold cup winning standard
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He probably has a stone and a haldf to find to place (to catch up with the likes of Weird Al or What a Friend). It's likley he'll be doing his best work at the end of the race - he usually is at Cheltenham. This sort of thing has happened, - e.g. Turnip Green, Mon Mome. And horses who've been ridden to win will be falling apart by the end. But I accept it's unlikley.
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revedesivola 15 Feb 12 21:20
he has at least 2 stone to find and he wont pluck it out of the sky or lick it off the ground. Unless he spends a week at Chemichal Nickys and eats out of the medical cabinet  |
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I dont think the official ratings tell the full story here. Midnight chase hammered knockara last time but pace wasnt strong and midnight chase had things more or less his own way. Knockara did his customary trick of being fairly prominent, jumping causing him to drop back in middle part of race before staying on powerfully when race effectively over. Fast forward to gold cup, midnight chase will have to go alot harder to dominate through the early stages and as previous poster said most of those ridden to try and win will be in a heap coming up the hill. Knockara will be flying up the hill in any race at festival but as ive said before would love to see a different pilot on board.
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is everything else going to fall in a hole too? in all honesty theres about 50 horses i could name who would finish ahead of him in a gold cup, but their trainers arent deluded enough to run the majority of them. i think hes potentially well handicapped, but im not talking 2 stone + thats required to trouble the judge in a gc
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It would certainly seem a better idea to me to run him in one of the handicaps - the Will Hill, the Plate or even the Pertempos if he's qualified.
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The 3 mile chase on Tuesday was reported as the aim before today
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His trainer hasn't had a winner this season I notice!
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Of the current "2nd tier horses", in a stongly run gold cup and with a stronger pilot I would fancy him to finish ahead of Captain Chris, Quel Esprit, Carruthers, The Giant Bolster, Midnight Chase, and to a lesser extent Diamond Harry and Burton Port.
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Rod Tidwell, do you have a link to that 3 mile hcap chase link. Trainer mentioned gold cup as possible aim after midnight chase race
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meant to say do you have a link to knockara being aimed at 3mile hcap
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I always thought he'd be a great horse at extreme staying distances. Probably not a good enough jumper for the National but could do well in Welsh National etc. Always seems to get outpaced before staying on again.
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I got a report through on twitter after the Chelt race but jist of it seems to be on here yort - http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/news/festival-handicap-chase-010212.html
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Having a laugh surely yort. All of those named beat KB on the bridle.
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Cheers for that Rod Tidwell. Not havin a laugh at all Glossy. Dont think Capatin Chris will complete, Quel Esprit doubtful stayer for me along with jumping frailties at this level, Carruthers, Midnight Chase and The Giant Bolster may cut each others throats and have little to offer over the last half mile, Burton Port has to prove he'll retain his ability and his hurdles form ties in closely with Knockara, and off a slow pace Knockara still caught Diamond Harry on the run in last time
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at the the of the day yort its all about opinions,thats what makes this game so interesting,
you could well be right about the horse finding a few pounds with a differant jockey & trainer,(stable changes can often freshen horses up)The problem is this animal is the stables flag bearer,so will be staying put, anyway,fairplay to you for sticking your neck on the line,hope it runs in the GC,and gets placed, i just cannot see it though (IMO  )GL with it anyway  |
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cheers conditor
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yort..I've already been backing it for the hcap but if they do swap and go for the big one I'll be looking for an each way market without the front two to back it in for similar reasons you have outlined
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Well theyve left him in at this stage anyway so hope springs eternal
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It's funny I was thinking he ran every bit as promising Chelt trial as Simonsig yesterday, watching the replay I love the way he's staying on. Wherever he ends up running I think he's a knocking ew bet
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could be more Cheltenham clues from that race...I thought Local hero and Orsippus both ran really nicely also with hcaps in mind at the big one (both not too harshly treated at present if not reassessed)
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This horse badly needs a change of jockey. Until that happens I could never back him over fences. With a good pilot he would be maximum bet material in the Scottish National.
Of course if ran 3rd or 4th in the Gold Cup his handicap mark would be buggered. Realistically I can't see Jan ever being jocked off. |
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Agree with original poster and Flying Bolt. If the jockey was changed this horse could easily find at least a stone and would be a big place contender for the gold cup. He'd also be a strong favourite for the 3m h'cap. however, unfortunately it won't happen.
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add me to his list of fans
 ive long had a soft spot for this fellow,but as pointed out,his jockey is useless,so much untapped potential there if ridden in a proper manner by a top jock,shame we may never see it though, Cracking e/w bet if he lines up in the GC imo,half the field be pulled up,but ye can rest assure this fellow wont be,as he's as tough and genuine as they come,could easily see him flying from the clouds for a place,its not as if he has useless form in the book, if you look back through his form,its actually quite decent,whatever race he turns up in he'll be value anyway,as the market always underestimates him |