Cheltenham Festival
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Looks like he is back on target for the Gold Cup after some intensive from Yogi Breisner (as is Menorah).
He has a real engine and went past Finians Rainbow as if he was standing still up the hill over the shorter trip showing he has stamina and pace there.
The King George he wasnt quite ready and stayed on well into 3rd.
Spring ground is the key to this horse as shown last season. I had my doubts about him having to have use made of him to jump well enough and have enough at the close to take a part in the finish at a staying trip but the King George his proximity to the big 2 off an interrupted prep augurs well come March.
Dickie has to judge it to perfection to make sure he keeps him up to his work into his fences while not taking too much out of him ... not easy. However with old-timer Kauto Star on an undulating staying track he is never best on and Long Run jumping poorly, a horse who is rated a world beater (by 'ratings experts' who said he would apparently go undefeated this season, well at least until he was beaten in his first 2 runs) based on beating 2 old timers at ages that horses rarely win Gold Cups historically, he has a chance.
He has a real engine and went past Finians Rainbow as if he was standing still up the hill over the shorter trip showing he has stamina and pace there.
The King George he wasnt quite ready and stayed on well into 3rd.
Spring ground is the key to this horse as shown last season. I had my doubts about him having to have use made of him to jump well enough and have enough at the close to take a part in the finish at a staying trip but the King George his proximity to the big 2 off an interrupted prep augurs well come March.
Dickie has to judge it to perfection to make sure he keeps him up to his work into his fences while not taking too much out of him ... not easy. However with old-timer Kauto Star on an undulating staying track he is never best on and Long Run jumping poorly, a horse who is rated a world beater (by 'ratings experts' who said he would apparently go undefeated this season, well at least until he was beaten in his first 2 runs) based on beating 2 old timers at ages that horses rarely win Gold Cups historically, he has a chance.
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I think the engine exists but he reminds me of Racing Demon, his jumping left handed is an issue. He hung left in his novice hurdle at Cheltenham in April a few yrs ago, jumped slighlt left for me at Kempton in his novice chase last yr, got away with it in the Arkle and dived left LTO. Maybe Yogi will perform a miracle but I honestly think it is a massive leap of faith to back him for March going left handed.
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He is different class to Racing Demon without doubt. He won the Arkle left handed going at Arkle pace you cant do much better than that as a novice. The key to him is giving him a clear view of his fences and being really positive into them which the jockey knows fine well. The massive bonus is the spring ground, rarely will you see it make such a difference to a horse as it does this one.
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I agree about the Spring ground, no question and I do believe he has a Rolls Royce engine. I do not anticpate the trip proving an issue but the jumping is an issue for me.
I swore blind before last yr's Arkle that he could not win that race because of his preference for jumping right handed and hanging right but obviously he did win it. I thought he got away with it that day and did go right all the way down the back and indeed up the straight first time, though not damagingly, and this with a clear sight of the fences. He jumped right to some degree at well over half the fences. I believe is half te reaosn why he was being scrubbed along before 4 out. The Argento confirmed my suspicion. GL though Eric, I am a big fan of the connections, so would love him to run a screamer, and if he did jump straight all the way I could see him being a player. Although there is no evidence, I think he would eat the hill much like Imperial did (though we had evidence that he woudl stay). |
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I cannot find my posts from prior to last yr's Arkle, but hdid say on 17.09.2011 (regarding the typical Arkle winner and CC) - I agree that you need to stay to win te Arkle and the QMCC, but the way this horse won his Arkle suggests to me a step up will suit. He never to me looked like the winner of the race at all until the bottom of the hill. I think a really, really smart 2 miler would have beaten him. It still lurks in my mind as well that he wants to go right handed.
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To be fair to him if you examine Kauto Star's jumping history he has hit fence(s) in every other race his mistakes costing him the race in around 1 out of 4.
Long Run is a poor jumper, his youthful exuberance against pensioners got him there last year after mistakes which have plagued his career over English fences especially in the RSA. He doesnt seem as good this season though he or Kauto should be good enough if jumping well unless Captain Chris gets to the bottom of the hill in touch. He eats the hill, loves it. |
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got to agree with eric on this one the spring does seem to wake this horse up ! if briesner has sorted his jumping and he has got his confidence back then he is a major player ! i backed him for the gold cup just after the king george ,but i must admit to beign dissapointed (wasnt everyone ?) with his argento run but he has drifted to a very generous price now so it may be time to get on again as a lot of contenders seem to falling by the wayside .
he did stay on well in the arkle and looked to me as though the gold cup trip would suit, if they have sorted him out and he turns up 100% he could suprise the principles . |
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Big price for a horse with that engine but really its clutching at straws hoping this one comes back to his Arkle form plus stay the Gold Cup trip and get his jumping together.
Eating up the hill when your a 2m 6f horse against 2 milers is one thing but over 3m2f is another. Further he's inherently a bad jumper (and getting worse). Big mistake IMO for Hobbs to be be putting him in the Gold Cup this year. It could ruin the horse. Better to have had him get some confidence back over hurdles and come back next year. Punchestown is another possibility but really too soon IMO when he's lost the plot like he has. |
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He could well improve for the time of year,but he would have to a lot.
His jumping this season has not been good at all,and lto would put me right off backing him for the Gold Cup.His run at Kempton for whatever reason was shabby at best,he never travelled or jumped and did not stay.Yes he passed Somersby,but he was running on empty,he was still a long way behind the 2 horses he has to beat in March. His form going into the Gold Cup is bl00dy awful,and to back him imo is a huge leap of faith. Anyway,i wish you luck if you back him,and it would be nice to see him run well,i just cannot see it happening. |
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I'd much rather take a shorter price IR after a few fences if it seems his jumping has been sorted than take the current price on the back of that last woeful display
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Agree on that duncan that is the way I'll be going...
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We dont even know what the ground will be yet either ..
Segal has tipped this so that is something in his favour I suppose. |
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Given the ante-post rubbish Segal has tipped definitely not a point in his favour.
Crazy decision to run - you would almost think Segal has been at the door of the Whateleys begging them to run. The only people who would want to ignore his last run are those who have backed him and are now effectively clutching at straws. Even if by some miracle he actually jumped relatively straight there is nothing to suggest he has a prayer of staying or is good enough. Took advantage of a dire renewal of the Arkle and would have been much better off having a crack at looks to an ordinary Champion Chase. |
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Brilliant
 at last an opinion that isn't pocket talking... |
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hey chaps i would not rule out captain chris or for that matter menorah ! captain chris has not looked great this season addmittedly but the gold cup field looks to be falling apart and apart from long run and (dodgy jumper and short in the betting ) and an ageing kauto star (kempton suits much better than chelt) there is not a lot of strength in depth .
if captain chris improves his jumping and comes on for the spring ground he can well be a player as he is lot better than he has shown so far and at 33s on here he has drifted to a very big price . if long run and kauto for one reason or another dont perform to thier best it is up for grabs and the 33s /25s could look huge ,i for one have not written him off and the 33s is too big and i have taken the hint as for menorah and the arkle i have already backed al ferof but i have been thinking about menorah and on his hurdles form he also has a first rate chance if he jumps well and a very fast run arkle could be what he needs, remember this horse started a shortish price for the champion hurdle last year, and also beat cue card and silvinaco conti at cheltenham also won a supreme so he is no mug , you take a chance on his jumping but the odds factor that in and yogi bear has been helping him gain confidence and he may be a force to be reckoned with in the arkle . i remember tuichev winning an arkle and many said he couldnt jump ! 16s is a fair price imo., |
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I've got him at 33/1 NRNB and was gutted when i saw it was all systems go for the Gold Cup.
Was praying he wouldn't run so i'd get my money back. Can't see him winning at all |
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I'd be utterly astonished if he wins after his last two races. Should be more like a 100/1 shot. There may not be much strength in depth, but there are plenty of horses who can jump and will stay the trip.
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well chief and stront ,i too have backed him early ante post nrnb 25s and after his last run i was dissapointed and thinking well they wont run him in the gold cup after that so get my money back ,but he must have shown them something for them to say its all systems go for the gold cup ! they have always thought a tremendous amount of this horse and as i said before we have a dodgy jumper with an iffy jockey (no wins under rules this season)and a 12 y old (albeit a rejuvenated former champion )at the head of the betting.
one of them may well win but for me they are not value ( what are the combined odds the 2 ?)and we have an arkle and punchestown winner who if you can ignore his last run and they have ironed out his problems is a progressive horse on the up .well thats how i read it anyway . |
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you need to ignore his last 3 runs though Foyles,he aint jumped well in all of them,in one of them he did,nt travel or stay,and the other aint worth talking about.
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It's a massive ask to sort out his extraordinarily bad jumping (from his last race) without even another racecourse run. He was so bad he might never come back from it (certainly on a left handed track). In the past he hasn't jumped brilliantly at Cheltenham. If he gets round I'd say it's an excellent training performance.
I also don't think he stayed 3 m at Kempton in the King George (when he jumped ok iirc) so I'd be doubtful he'll stay an extra 2 1/2 f at Cheltenham. You're right that Long Run and Kauto Star have question marks. However, I'd say Weird Al, What A Friend, Burton Port, Synchronised and Midnight Chase all have stronger chances than Chris. He's not a no hoper. he is a Festival Grade 1 winner - albeit in a year with the worst novices in living memory - but I couldn't back him with your money. |
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When was the last time a horse you had to "ignore the last three runs" of won the CGC?
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I agree with Strontium.Every word of it.
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Simply running in the Gold Cup so the owners have a runner. Only hope mine are on the inside of him. Bet R.Johnson can't wait!
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thieves what was wrong with 3rd in a king george when imo ridden to see if he got the trip. and he would almost certainly beaten medemit giving him weight at exeter if dickie hadnt fallen off .............terrible runs !
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I agree Strontium and Thieves. I think they should wait for Punchestown, though clearly that race lacks the kudos in comparison.
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all about opinions lads but im keeping the faith ..............never done that badly swimming against the tide ,good luck with yours .
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Btw, I do think staying will be ok for the horse, but that is a guess obviously. I suspct what will damage him making it harder to get home is the amount of stamina he uses up jumping constantly to the right as is his tendency. I think I may have also read PJH saying he was undercooked (rare for one of his!) for the King George - I could be wrong about this, i will try to find the quote, but that would to some extent explain the lacklustre show.
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What's wrong FW is that the KG puts him at about a 157. Diamond Harry territory! The ignore the last three runs comment was made by budd, I was merely saying you cannot do that in a CGC!
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r carver hobbs roughly said he missed some work and if the king george was a week earlier he would have missed it, he was in need of the race in his opinion or words to that effect. he landed on a fence early in his last race and jumped right markedly but they have had briesner doing his stuff and at 33s i think its worth the risk .
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o.k thieves but the top 2 make no appeal to me value wise ! on capt chris last run he has no chance but do you belive thats all he is capable of, at 33s and as a progrssive young horse he appeals to me ! not everyones cup of tea but thats the way i see it .he may well jump right and have no chance but hobbs is a first class trainer who must have seen something to still aim for the gold cup we will see !
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I'm definitely looking to take on the top 2 but need to find a horse that is actually progressing enough that a 175 might be possible. Struggling to see it with CC, much as I would like to.
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know what you mean thievs a lot are falling by the wayside .
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theives- y u looking to take on the top 2? i wudnt be, for months people have been putting arguements on here together for captain chris, quel esprit etc, but they have proven they ain gonna worry the top 2, the only way long run / kauto finish out of top 2 is if they fall, the fact of the matter is that you can make arguemnts for some of the horses but they aint newere near the top 2, also anything out of the top 3/4 betting dont win the gold cup anymore , 25/1, 16/1 dont win the gold cup them days are well and truely over.
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TLU - There is always the market w/o Kauto and Long Run on here. It appears B365 have closed their market as hasn't been available since Saturday. I believe the top 2 can be beat but have played both markets, just in case.
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shockster - the top two can only be beat if they fall
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Lets not go over old ground.
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oh yeh i 4got wasnt 2 weeks ago quel esprit was a 175 horse say no more
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Start of season we had last years RSA horses,hobbs 2 from the Arkle and Jewson,DHarry,and uncle Tom Cobbly and all!!
One by one they have fallen by the wayside and we are now left with last years field minus Denman and IC. Absolutely nothing has come through as a realistic threat to challenge Long Run and Kauto Star,and we are fast running out of time,in fact it aint going to happen imo.I was hoping the Irish race at the weekend would give us a good candidate,but Quel Esprit showed that nothing over there is up to it,although hes a chance in the without favs market,and thats probably the market with the value now. I honestly think its time for us to realise that this is a 2 horse race barring accidents. |
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bud i remember the 2 horse race a few years back kauto v denman crowd wearing denman and kauto scarves thommo saying to the crowd who wins kauto or denman .............something spoiled the party ......dangerous to say its a 2 horse race despite that on paper it looks that way .
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That was the media mate,their were a fair few on here knew differently.
Foyles,up to you if you want to try and find one or two to trouble the favs,and i wish you luck,but im sticking on that now. |