Cheltenham Festival
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Rock on Ruby looks overpriced @ 9/1 (wh) to me. For me his newbury victory was the best piece of form shown by any UK hurdler this season . He didn't look in great nick prior to his Kempton loss and I think the Newbury victory left its mark. Nicholls said
afterwards he would go straight for the CH and should go there a fresh horse. His form last year was of a high standard and I think
he's strengthed up a lot since. The key is the Newbury form, it's possible I'm overrating Empire Levant whose due to run on friday.
If both he and Raya star blow out on Friday then the form could be overrated. There's ample compensation for this possiblity and
I'm on @ 9/1. Other best prices I've seen - Grandouet & Zarkandar 4/1 (WH), Binocular 11/2 (WH), Oscars well (7/1) (wh),
Oscar whisky 10/1 (wh) -likely nr, 1,000 stars 14/1 (wh) -poss nr, Overturn & Brampour 20/1 (WH)
afterwards he would go straight for the CH and should go there a fresh horse. His form last year was of a high standard and I think
he's strengthed up a lot since. The key is the Newbury form, it's possible I'm overrating Empire Levant whose due to run on friday.
If both he and Raya star blow out on Friday then the form could be overrated. There's ample compensation for this possiblity and
I'm on @ 9/1. Other best prices I've seen - Grandouet & Zarkandar 4/1 (WH), Binocular 11/2 (WH), Oscars well (7/1) (wh),
Oscar whisky 10/1 (wh) -likely nr, 1,000 stars 14/1 (wh) -poss nr, Overturn & Brampour 20/1 (WH)
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I liked the look of Rock on Ruby, think he is great place value. I am on HF place but ROR has done nothing wrong, loves cheltenham and looks to have a decent engine. Thought a decent jump t the last and he beats Binocular at Cheltenham. Think they way he stayed on up the hill last year was very pleasing and the form of that race is working out really well.
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* change Cheltenham for Kempton its on the brain now
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Definitely looks overpriced. Never even looked in that market until I seen this thread. I think I'll join you in having a few quid on.
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With ye on rock on ruby...great price w/o huricane fly..if the fly wins i cannot see ror finishing out of the top 4..fantastic bet imo..any thoughts on who will ride him come the day??
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Sam Thomas i'd say
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Daryl Jacob
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Wont Daryl Jacob be on Zarkander?
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Got it in a e/w Yankie at 16/1 {smug} but Rubi Light already looks a non-runner in the Gold Cup {not so smug}
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Ooops, you're probably right marychain.
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I agree with the OP on this, I think its a superb bet. You'd generally prefer Neptune horses to Triumph horses for the following years' Champion, and looking at the form I'd much rather be on Rock on Ruby than Grandouet or Zarkander at twice the price. On a line through Overturn Rock on Ruby shouldnt be twice the price of Grandouet, although its possible Overturn was a little overcooekd by that stage.
I think 9/1 w/o The Fly is a shoe-in. Wouldnt put anyone off taking the 14s outright either. |
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Took 16/1 ew about ROR prior to his Kempton run. Cheltenham definitley going to suit him more than the Xmas hurdle given he went so close in the Neptune last season, but like everyone else think we're playing for 2nd spot, although this thread is about the market with Hurricane so a big player.
After the Irish Champion I took 9/1 Oscars Well, reasons posted on the other thread. Just think he will run a peak effort in March. Not sure why NJH did not run Bino in one of those JumpersBumpers. He said Bino was the one horse who needed a race more than any others yet he runs Tetlami and Oscar Whisky! |
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*without
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Dont know about shoe-in,but hes certainly one of a few that could get 2nd,or maybe win.
Think this race is more competitive than a lot are saying to be honest. |
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Cracking price Ruby had some at 9s as cover for Fly bet at 9/4 and Oscars Well 33/1 ew, but playing for places imo.
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Zarkandar probably deserves to be clear fav after todays performance. Giving weight to all the field bar
one in a race were weight counts a lot he showed a decent mixture of pace and stamina plus an excellent attitude. He looked very fit pre-race and maybe a touch on the light side. It is possible he might not have enough time to fully recover before Chelt as he had a hard race today. Empire levant boiled over pre-race and his run can prob be ignored, Raya star ran a sound enough race to suggest ROR's newbury win was not overrated. He looks closely matched with Zarkandar, though I prefer Zarkandars attitude. Still reasonably happy with the ROR bet but Zarkandars performance today was bad news. |
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Has anything been said about why Brampour ran so badly?
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I think PFN said something along the lines of sometimes the horse is really enthusiastic and other days he isn't.
Noel Fehily rides ROR. |
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Obviously Grandouet has a minor leg infection and has been given ''some medication''.
Still cant have any of the 5yos, Zark,Grand. Much prefer the improving OW. |
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"Medication" eh? Where have I heard that before
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As long as it wasn't out the test tube marked "Bino potion - Feb/Mar 2011" it will be fine. Don't you just love Chemical Nicky !
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The performance of Champion Hurdle contender Binocular when winning the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton also delighted Henderson, which the trainer partly attributed to a wind operation the horse had between Kempton on December 26 and Wincanton.
"Binocular looks in great shape and everyone is really happy with him. AP [McCoy] had mentioned his wind after the Christmas Hurdle and it's probably no coincidence that Wincanton was his first run back from a soft palate procedure to correct that," the trainer added. |
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I'm struggling to work out why Overturn is 40/1 in this race with HF (has comfortably beaten Binocular already this season when fresh
but 20/1 w/o HF e/w looks like a cracker to me! Had a busy Nov and December, had a hard race a chelt and did very well against a top granduoet which is now withdrawn. Kempton run came too soon and will come out nicely for the break. |
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Otis, I agree, a cracking bet.
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I dont think Overturn is anywhere near good enough to challenge the top two in this race, and I would be surprised if at least one of ROR, OW and maybe Zark are good enough to finish clear of it.
Even if Overturn goes well fresh I wouldn't think it would reverse the form with ROR |
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Aren't good enough I should say
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Otis, the stats are very encouraging for Overturn. As I've said elsewhere (mostly in the Zarkandar for CH thread) it is more than 2 decades since a horse won the CH with less than 15 starts under rules or less than 6 wins. Most Champs also had a career hurdles win record of at least 37.5% of starts. This season the horses with enough starts, wins and strike rate are HF, Bino and Overturn (MDH would have too if he started but seems unlikely now). He isn't far off the others on ratings and I have to say he has a chance! He also meets the other general stats in terms of age ranges, days since ran. Did a superb time figure at Newcastle too that puts him up there and his recent RPR of 164 is just above the threshold that history tells us CH winners need to have achieved before if they are to have a serious winning chance.
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Second rated on Topspeed, 5th rated on RPR, only has to finish in the first 4 (if HF wins/places) for this bet, will give his running, will stay, is consistent, has course form. What's not to like? I think the horse is seriously underrated in this race - he reminds me a lot of Pujabi (a G1 winner that season who slipped completely under the radar).
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What happened to him last year iyo?
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He was used as a pacemaker for Peddlars Cross.
I should add this is a question of price - I expect Bino & HF will beat him. RoR and Zark are probably close to him and may well beat him. But 20/1 in the w/o HF market seems like a good price when there isn't a great deal between any of the top horses (except HF) on any major ratings. |
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My view of Overturn is that over hurdles, 2 1/2m on good or faster ground is ideal form him and the
Aintree hurdle would be his best target. From what connections have said they have no intention of going down this route. When he beat Binocular at Newcastle it turned into real stamina test with the runners facing a very strong headwind up the home straight and Binocular didn't look keen (or maybe his breathing was playing up in the wind) He set a moderate pace last year which resulted in a relatively slow time for the race and don't see any real excuse for his effort. I don't think the undulating track is ideal for him and though he'll probably get an uncontested lead I'd be surprised if he finished in the first 4. |