Cheltenham Festival
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I honestly think this could be this years gold cup winner. Every race he has run he has been outpaced his last race at cheltenham he was staying on the whole way up the hill which indicates that he is crying out for the gold cup distance.He also is a very good jumper. Has won a Grade 1 at an inadequate distance so that proves he is quite talented. At 80/1 WH you could do a lot better than backing this fella E-WAY. Am i totally insane or have i a point.?
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Replies: 34
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shhhhhh keep it quiet
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Probably more sensible to take the 50/1 NRNB and 33/1 W/O big 2 with 365 for my money. Only way he goes is if he gives Long Run a race on Friday IMO.
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yes mate he has to run a big one in the Denman - I'm on for everything so fingers firmly crossed from me
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I'd much prefer to see him run in the Ryanair (as I dont get my money back on that one and I have 20s) but I had to take these prices NRNB. Since he clearly has a good shout in the Ryanair, if he does enough to turn up for the Gold Cup 33/1 EW without front 2 will look very big.
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yes mate
I got the 89 w/o and 180 in the win markets for the GC and 16s for the Ryanair and 14s for the Denman so hoping to be able to trade out on all or most of those |
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I found this quote by the trainer interesting yesterday, first time he has mentioned the Gold Cup as a realistic target. Big ponderable is the trip, but he would be a fascinating runner if he shows up, and given the Ryan Air arguably looks more competative it wouldn't be a huge surprise.
Alan King said of [b]Medermit: "He´s run a marvellous race and has just been beaten by a better horse. He keeps battling and I think he´ll stay all day. He´ll go for the Ryanair or the Gold Cup, I´ve not decided which, but he´ll run in one".[/b] |
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The Ryanair is more competetive in that many more horses have a realistic chance of winning, but the best Gold Cup horses are still much better than the top Ryanair horses.
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Indeed,you only have to see how Albertas Run has struggled against Kauto Star in the past to see that.
And hes probably the best 21f horse weve had the last few seasons. |
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He has shown good form this season and deserves to line up for one of the championship races. I'm not totally convinced by his jumping. He seems to get from one side to the other all right but at times, lands in a bit of a heap.
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Can't say I've been concerned about his jumping, but your right he's been in good form this season. I thought his run yesterday was excellent against a very good horse who had his ideal C&D.
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the horse continues to improve with every run
in 4 races this season his RPR has been in order: 158, 162, 168 (was originally given 166 but been upgraded because of the exploits of other horses in the Spinal Research) and now 170 that is a genuine sequence of improvement and I think there is still more to come when they finally step him up to 3 miles which might be at Aintree I don't think the pace profile suited him ideally at Ascot as they went fairly steadily for a few jumps then wound it up. He will be best served in a race where there are very fast early fractions and where the front runners come back to the field in between the last two fences. He might get that in the Ryan Air and he does 16/1 will look big |
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Judo, do you know if that RPR includes any allowance for Thornton nearly being knocked off the horse down the back? If not it's an impressive number.
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Interesting point, they may well have upgraded him slightly because Riverside Theatre got 172 but won by 3 lengths meaning Medermit should have got less than 170
so some caution required I still rate Great Endeavour superior to Medermit, I have him as 174 already and I can see both being involved in the finish of the Ryan Air |
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I have great respect for Alan King but if he runs this one in The Gold Cup rather than the Ryanair that will evaporate instantly.
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Reading his web site he doesn't seem to be to sure to be honest...maybe they will let him take his chance in the gold cup...will be a shock to me to be fair but he is improving and the step up in trip may help but it is an unknown...
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For me he would have to jump better than he did yesterday to figure in a Gold Cup - also would have made more sense to test his stamina earlier in the season that start now
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Yes, it would seem odd to step him up now though I think he might benefit from it eventually. I'd also suggest he's not up to winning a Gold Cup yet but is a player for the Ryanair. They should follow the Imperial Commander model.
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well I have laid off all my bits and pieces for the Gold Cup including in the w/o Big Two market so it's a free bet in there if he runs
but in all reality to go in the Gold Cup without even trying 3 miles first would be surprising.... No, I have mapped out this for him as a sequence from now: Ryan Air Betfair Bowl Punchestown Gold Cup (unless put away for the summer by then) Charlie Hall or Betfair Chase King George 2012 Aon (Denman) Chase Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013 7 races over the next 12 months culminating in the Gold Cup when he should be fully mature, conditioned to running 3 mile races with plenty of experience and the perfect age at 9 years old |
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I should forward them to alan judo...brilliant
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I'm sure he does not need my advice
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Betfair Bowl is a good shout - 4 weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree this year so will be less keen to oppose those who have hard races at Festival than usual.
Having said that, if he goes there would prefer it off the back of the Ryanair rather than first tilt at extended Gold Cup trip. |
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yes that was my thinking
use the Ryan Air as a really good prep in a fierce race to then try 3 miles for the first time at Aintree on likely good ground which he really wants... then if he performs well you can go down the Grade 1 staying chase route to the CGC next year |
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If they think he is a gold cup horse for next year I think they should be putting him away after the Ryanair or (dare I say it) going straight to Aintree
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nah he is going to run and no doubt they will form a new plan after the Festival depending on what happens
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I have backed this one e/w at 20s for the Ryanair so am talking through my pocket to an extent, but I would be amazed if they use the Gold Cup as the race to find out if Medermit stays. Surely if the Gold Cup was the plan they would have run him in a more ordinary 3 mile + chase first.
If I were forced to back him for the Gold Cup I would definitely go the 50/1 NRNB route with 365, as suggested by thedemps above. |
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According to PP on twitter ,been backed to 9to1 from 11to1 for ryanair today.
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kingy nt guna make the same mistake he made last year by running in the gold cup. the ryaniar the race.
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Same mistake as last year?
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running in the wrong race he means
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I think he very much ran in the right race last year - hence the question. He was favourite for the Arkle. Are you suggesting he should have run in the Jewson or the RSA?
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no Alan King himself said and I misquote a bit " I messed up slightly last year and ran him in the wrong race, he should have gone in the 2 and a half miler - they were just too quick for him in the Arkle"
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I seem to remember him being very bullish about the horse's Arkle chance as I was. Captain Chris won the race FFS. A fair bit of hindsight involved if that is what King says now.
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no he said it soon after, was in two minds before the meeting and realised he made the wrong call in choosing the Arkle coz he was taken off his feet
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While a fan of this horse, I can't help but think that he will find at least one too good in what looks like being a very competitive Ryanair. In his four runs this year he has run well but has managed only one fortunate victory (Captain Chris would surely have beaten him at Exeter had he not unseated at the last). Just can't see him being good enough.... and he is prone to a few jumping errors too...
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