Bog Warrior - Arkle

Thats if he turns up


"Davy said he jumped well from halfway. He's a horse I wouldn't want to run with good in the ground but once its yielding or soft side of yielding then I'm happy to take my chance," the trainer told At The Races.

"Where we go I don't know, but it's great to get today out of the way, to get him back started again after the hiccup over Christmas.

"I wouldn't be averse to missing Cheltenham with him. Hopefully next year you'd hope he'd be a Lexus and Hennessy horse at Leopardstown on soft ground. He's a winter horse and he handles soft ground well."

Only conceivable race for him is the Arkle, give in ground on first day as matter of policy.  What we really need is the usual watering then a surprise downpour the day before :)

Like any antepost bets need the horse to turn up but if he does it will be the Arkle and will go off around 8-1 with plenty of question marks against horses shorter in the betting.

it will never jump round cheltenham

i was just quoting the trainer
but I hope your right guys
i took 20s on him here last week

wont run. trainer said "i wouldn't like to subject him to good ground."

Won't be good ground on first day, watering policy will make sure of that.

It's always good ground the first day. They will say it's good to soft but it never is it's for PR reasons..

Should take his chance in the Arkle, hopefully will be good to soft properly this time. Last 2 years has been good ground.

Im on ew at 16/1

Cant back him on the trainers comments

dunno trainers comments budd but imo hes too heavy topped to be a player in an arkle,wants soft ground and will head to fairyhouse.
but ive been wrong b4

I wouldn't be averse to missing Cheltenham with him. Hopefully next year you'd hope he'd be a Lexus and Hennessy horse at Leopardstown on soft ground. He's a winter horse and he handles soft ground well."

Reading that i would not be rushing to the bookies without NRNB.

it's not impossible it might be soft if there's a bit of rain in early March. Fair enough not to back him at this stage, but you can only write him off if you've got a weather crysal ball.

Thats fair comment,hes a big player imo if he turns up on favourable ground.

Aside from the trainer comments about marked preference for soft ground, I have strong doubts that his hurdles form is good enough to suggest he'd have a chance of winning this.

I'd say his hurdle rating is a moot point, he never really got a chance to see what he could do over hurdles. The horse doesn't really have a typical profile considering he only started racing last year.

Fair enough, but others have definitely shown good hurdles form, esp Peddlers, Menorah, Al Ferof & Sprinter Sacre, and it's something of a leap of faith to suggest / hope Bog Warrior would have been at that level or similar, which is usually required to be a winner here.

Strictly speaking, Sprinter Sacre's hurdles form isn't good enough to win an Arkle!  Just saying...

I have him rated 149 over hurdles, which would put him up there.

JOCI, he had only two runs over hurdles He hacked up in one while he fell in the other, why should they keep him over hurdles to achieve something more when the horse is clearly a chaser.

I haven't claimed they should keep him over hurdles, merely stated that he didn't reach a level over hurdles that needs to be reached in order to be considered a likely winner of the Arkle. He might have been capable of it, but he hasn't shown it yet. That's a negative for me.

Worried that he came out of yesterday stiff and sore. Love the horse but just get the feeling he won't be turning up at Cheltenham.

Arkle winners need a good engine and jumping ability.  It goes without saying that such horses will have rated reasonably highly over hurdles if they have had chance to do so.  Not having had such chance does not mean you have not got the engine and jumping ability.  You only need to use your eyes and look at the clock to see BW has both!

Stiff and sore Tom? Where did that come from?

Sporting Life site

"He knows he's had a race. He's a bit stiff and sore but hopefully he'll be all right in a week or so," said Martin.

"He pulled out a little stiff, but he should be grand in a few days.

"I've no thoughts about Cheltenham yet. We'll see how he is in a week or so and let him get over Saturday's race before we think about that."

Not ruled Cheltenham out then

Missed that one cheers.
That must make them extra cautious about Cheltenham.
It doesn't help that it's called BOG Warrior does it? If it was called Good Warrior perhaps they'd be a little less paranoid :)

LOL. I keep thinking that, everyone keeps saying it needs soft ground with no evidence for that whatsoever, if anything his form is better on yielding than heavy...

I think the way he runs out in front...he would IMO like a test of stamina IE softer ground so he could but more of a test on the other horses ability to jump and stay.

He IMO simply has to front run, now whether you would like to race him on Good Ground after a heavy fall last 2 starts back with him doing all the donkey work out in front and then expected to preserve him for the future.

Personally If I owned him I would run him only if he was 100% right coming up to the race and on softish ground, does not have to be a BOG but ground where he can really attack at his fences. I not sure what they will do but I have the feeling the Arkle could cut up badly. He stuffed Flemenstar and clearly is the best 2 Mile Chaser in Ireland even tho Flemenstar has improved considerably since his run against him them.

As good as he is I hate him to have a tired fall at the last at the Festival and just hurt himself. I guess tho if he is right and conditions are not really fast let him take his chance.

Martin Seems cautious but MOL will more than likely have the final say.

Agree with all that, except the Arkle cutting up badly !!