OSCAR WHISKY

yep,
He knows the task ahead and whats required to achieve that

Fair point regarding the French bred Cadoudal stats, I will consider Bucksy innocent until proven guilty tho

BB's three WorldHurdle wins have been at 6/1, Evens and Evens. This year he will be a 1/2 shot as the market has finally caught up with how good he is. This is the time to take him on.

so u'r plan is to take him on when he's MORE of a cert? good luck.

If OW, Thousand Stars and Mikael D'Haguenet all take part then I think it'll be BB's toughest test so far. Thousand Stars would have beaten OW in another few strides at Aintree last year, and I think he's still an underrated horse. Now that HF has proved his wellbeing, surely they'll let him take his chance in the WH, where I'd have him as a more likely winner than OW.

I thought Bucksy 10/11 last year went on cheltenham .co.uk says he 4/6 now I am more confused

6/1 5/6 and 4/6 it says any advance on this as i am not having it...?

10/11 last yr according to RP.

Indeed strontium. Calling themselves cheltenham.co.uk and can't get it right

yep 10/11 last year.  4/6 at Aintree.

The World hurdle for me is usually the weakest of the championship races , basically because any horse
with ability to stay 3m hurdles is highly likely to be running in 3m chases. So the race is left with
horses that are either in their first year out of novice company(these tend to run in the race for 1 year before going chasing, see Punchestowns, Grand crus ,time for rupert) , failed chasers (big Bucks) or horses
that are obviously a bit on the thin or small side for chasing (baracouda).
It's interesting to note that when Punchestowns and TFR went chasing they were highly thought of but have
proved to be overated ,some of the overating coming from their 2nd's to Big Bucks in the world hurdle.
Big bucks is running in these 3m hurdles by default, if he'd jumped fences better he would have continued
chasing.  Others are possibly going to run in it also by default, Oscar whisky( due to henderson having other topend 2m hurdlers and the prersence of HF) and 1,000 stars ( trainer has HF).These top end 2m hurdlers are a rare occurence in the race.
All in all this could lead to one of the most competitive world hurdles  there has been for a number of years.

The last top quality 2m hurdler to run in it won the race was 3 time winner Inglis Drever who burst the Barracouda bubble having
previously won the 2m Kingwell hurdle at wincanton.
With Hurricane fly it's pretty easy to see that he's a significantly better horse than anything else at
2m but with Big Bucks you cannot say that at 3m, Oscar whisky and 1,000 stars are a lot better quality horses
than the ones he's faced over hurdlers and both are unexposed over 3m and bring in totally different form lines.  If the ground rides very much on the soft side I'd expect BB to win but if it dries out to near
good as the week progress's then Oscar whisky could burst the Big Bucks bubble.

tinkler be best if u keep ur stupid opinions to ur selve do us all a favour!

giggsy3444 Date Joined: 17 Aug 05
Add contact | Send message When: 12 Feb 12 16:30 Joined: Date Joined: 17 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 27 | Blogger: giggsy3444's blog
so u'r plan is to take him on when he's MORE of a cert? good luck.


Er no. I am saying if you have not backd him previously at better prices then why back him now ? Also, the short the price no way means the stronger chance of winning. These odds are implied by everyone else and like I said, the market has finally caught with how good this horse is.

Even money was widely available on day of race last year.

I am in no doubt and under no illusion that BB will be available at a bigger price on the morning of the 15th March as to that he is now currently trading at antepost! This is almost set in stone if OW and TS run, poss if OW runs, almost defo is both go! He has been every year he has run in it!

I agree also with tinkler, me thinks most people are under the illusion BB is unbeatable, of course he is beatable, he is not a machine and he will lose one day!

I am (as stated on here and other threads) well and truly in the OW e/way camp! But fully expect BB to win, but maybe, just maybe OW would have the class to scare him, and then who knows, but what is there in the field, if he stays that would be good enough to keep OW out of the frame? 5/4 a place, is a cracking bet!

as i said on a previous thread connections will do all they can to make sure BB wins. celestial halo will be used as a pacemaker and he will keep up the gallop for at least the first 2m. then dynaste etc will take over. OW will have 2 stay every inch of 3m and then some to have even a slight chance of beating BB. when the others are under pressure BB is only getting going. he put 7 lengths between himself and dynaste from the last to the line the last time and was very strong at the line.

ow wont even be placed will be out stayed by a few

ow wont even be placed will be out stayed by a few

clueless.

seathestars- hows OW a great e.w bet? i take it ur completly guessing he'll get 3 mile as hes never ran over further 2m4 1/2f, so its guess e.w bet at best?

i agree. the pressure will be on early. if OW doesnt stay then its going to be a long way home.

sintonian if ow trys to beat bb he will use to much energy up and will be passed by a few if ow goes for second he may get it

sint has it spot on, use are all clueless!!!


OW is a great bet because on the day he will be the dirtiest filthiest e/way cert there is all of that week! Get on at the 5/1 now imo, cos he wont be bigger than 7/2 ish on the day, with BB trading around the 8/11 mark that makes TS (if he runs) about an 11/2 chance! On a book of that nature, OW will not be bigger than 1.5 to place in the place market on betfair, thus allowing those who want to to lay off their entire stake in the place market thus assuring a bet to nothing! Profit if he is placed, stake back if he dont stay and is unplaced, jackpot if he wins!


I am pretty sure i said this same thing on this thread a page or two back! Mark my words, the above will likely happen!

The problem is, everyone is assuming OW wont get the trip just because he has not tried. I dont get that at all.

He is 3/3 over 21f around Cheltenham. Why would anyone be so confident of the extra 3 furlongs being his undoing ?

Have to agree with that point also sint! Which is why if i do lay off in the place market, it will only be approx half my stake.

There are a few real doubts about OW but they are factored into his price. For me, having seen him over 2 1/2 miles at Chelts it's hard to believe he won't get the WH trip.

tinkler, I think you seriously underestimate Big Buck's. He is well ahead of anything he has faced over 3m hurdles. People often describe him as gthe best staying hurdler there has ever been and that could well be true. Until recently he never won his races by much whoever her faced so we have no real quantitative measure of how good he is. Oscar Whisky  and 1000 Stars might be better than anything BB has faced so far, they might not. We hear that every year and it's what then races are for. Personally I think BB is the best horse in training and he is wonderfully tactically versitile.

this is what makes horse racing great so many diff views let the horses do the talking at chelts ow 5th bad luck bb all the way

I remember when Jamie Spencer rode Delegator to finish 2nd to the mighty Sea The Stars in the 2K Guineas. Afterwards, when John Oxx had said the Derby was STS next race, Spencer said STS showed so much speed that day that he thought STS could not win the Derby.

What other doubts do you have Stront other than the trip ?

what did he beat in those races. if memory serves me right the horses that were 2nd in those races were cape tribulation (failed chaser and OW was heavy odds on), get me out of here (who didnt stay OW again heavy odds on) and pungotch (under pressure a long way out again OW way odds on). dont think any of those races put pressure on his stamina to even atay 2.5m never mind 3m at a strong pace.

Why do you make relation to his odds. Black Caviar has been hacking up at 1/25. Does this mean she is no good ? Odds are irrelevant.

* odds are irrelevant to a horses performance.

If we are going through the formbook this season .. BB has two beatings of Five Dream who was rated 137 prior.

Giggsy, when he beat Poungach he was hard on the steel. It was rather impressive.

Sint - my only doubt is that I think BB is a (much) better horse than OW. As said above, I think OW will get the trip.

sin odds r an indication of the horses chance so r not irrelevant and must be taken into consideration

I can see them jumping the last together. Oscar will have had Big Bucks at it for a while.  Big Bucks jumps the last better and powers up the hill and sees off Oscar by a cozy length. They are about 6 or 7 ahead of the rest.  Simple as.....

They are not a reliable indicator though Shando.

Post hoc ergo proter hoc.

his odds mean that he was expected to win these races easily due to the lack of decent opposition.

sin i agree but they r something u must consider when u bet if they thought ow had a real chance he would be shorter the stable whould be upbeat and word get out the price would come down

Let me put it this way


At the start of an 8 runner horse race, any of the 8 runners has an equal chance of winning, the odds however, are a reflection of every ones opinion and nothing more!

the market is a very good indication of a horses chance sometimes i only look at the betting and not the form to inform me and i have done alright

?????? seathestars i dont get that at all. so your saying that in an 8 runner race a 50/1 shot has the same chance of winning as a 1/2 shot?

Exactly right shando, i do this too, as the more people think one particular horse will win, the more chance it has imo, of course this also means the price of that horse will be shorter. This, in essence, is exactly what betfair is all about!

No, because the 1/2 shot of course would have more than a 50% chance of winning and the 50/1 shot a 2% lets say. C above comment about betfair. It is all a game of opinions!

Why worry STS? The more people bet like that the happier I am !

FWIW, the odds on here are a very accurate reflection of a horses chances of winning in general.
Studies have shown that horses priced at 2 win very close to 50% of the time, horses priced 20 win close to 5% of the time etc.

Then every horse doesn't have the same chance of winning.

You are backing your judgement against the crowd.  How can you do that if you just follow the crowd by blindly following the odds?

For me much depends on how the race will be run. Last yr's renewal was unsatisfactory and would play to Oscar's evident speed strength. A searching test of stamina would take Oscar into the unknown but I am guessing he will stay. One thing you should not give BB is a target IMO. I can see the jockey waiting as long as possible.

What do people think about whether Celestial Halo will be used to ensure a true test of stamina this year?

He will be. He'll be able to keep up a strong pace for at least the 1st 2m.

Good point by Sintonian on BB's form this year.  We don't actually know yet if he is as good as previous seasons as he has been beating some very suspect horses classwise.  Two wins over failed chaser Five Dream who was beaten off 131 in an Exeter handicap previously and a win over Dynaste who's form over regular hurdles prior to that was very ordinary and who is rated on a win in a fixed brush event.  Strongest field he will have faced, shortest price he will have been.  I will be taking him on.

A very interesting possibility yes, BB can prevail in virtually any circumstances but his superiority IMO is more likely to emerge in a truly run race.

OW may be the first horse he has faced for a long while that would give him a serious race over 2 miles, and may even be better over that trip. Don't think this should be overlooked. Up until now, Ruby has just had to make sure that he is within half a dozen lengths of the winner with half a mile to go and he's confident that he is on the fastest horse.

If they use their heads they will ensure a fast pace for BB and hope to stretch OW's stamina. If OW stays a truly run 3m then it will be pretty damn close between them.

Big Bucks can travel fast for a very long way (like a hurlding Denman). Can OW?

If they are thinking genuinely about using CHalo,then that shows they are taking OW seriously,and so they should.
As i have said a few times now,its all about OW staying well enough to show his speed at the end of the race,that is the unknown and the intriguing bit.
I can understand people saying why he may or may not stay,but none of us know and wont know till the day.

Stront,exactly mate,we dont know.He travels great at a few furlongs less,at 2m and 2 m4,if he does it at 3,we are in for a great race.

Just think at Ascot, and also his recent Cheltenham run, he hit a flat spot with 3 furlongs to run and needed every yard of the 3 miles. Last season he never did that and we all thought he was over hitting his customary flat spot (which he showed in his first season over hurdles). I think the fact the owner will use Celestial Halo as a pacemaker and forego a run in the Champion Hurdle despite his impressive form over 2 miles this season suggests they know BB is becoming a stayer more and more as the seasons go on, where as before you'd have no worries dropping him back in trip.

I am not for one minute saying he will be beat, and he is a remarkable horse, one of a lifetime, but the market has finally caught up with how good he is now. The Bank of Bucks is offering no value this March.

Buddelia. Frankel used a pacemaker in his last run at Ascot. It didn't mean that connections thought he'd get beat if they didn't. They just wanted to make sure they gave their horse the best chance of winning as possible. Same if Nicolls uses CH to make sure it's a strong pace. If he does then that will give BB a better chance of winning.

yeh i see that giggsy,but its something they dont normally do.
By using CH it could be seen as a sign they are concerned about this opposition.

Different day different situation. Last year they were against Grand crus who would have loved a fast pace because he was very keen so it was to BB advantage that the pace was not overly strong. This year he's up against a horse who may not stay so a strong pace will put OW stamina under pressure.

Taking on a horse that has been 3rd in a Champion Hurdle and won the race I still want to call the Templegate Hurdle is indeed a very different situation from running against a handicapper that has managed to win a weak grade 2 race beating Knockara Beau!

The person who was disgracefully abused for pointing out that this is by far the weakest "championship" race is quite right.  All the efforts to upgrade this race to somehow be the equal of the CH, GC and CC have been predictably futile.  It's still just the same as the old stayers hurdle, no more no less.

yes giggsy,we are agreeing mate.It all about the opposition.

Thieves - won the race I still want to call the Templegate Hurdle

We'll be discussing Night Nurse and Monksfield next! Happy memories!

LOL R Carver, I barely remember them as I was just a kid trying to pick winners from the paper but I grew up with it as the Templegate, same as the whitbread will always be the whitbread and the schweppes the schweppes

It is true!

It takes an effort to not still refer to the Sun Alliance and the Sun Alliance as opposed to the RSA and Neptune - whenever people talked about the Sun Alliance in the old days, you seemed to instinctively know which race they were referring to without distinguishing between the hurdle and chase! (Q: Who do you fancy for the Sun Alliance?' A: 'Rolling Ball', 'nah I cannot have it on my mind, I fancy Esha Ness strongly' etc).

I actually prefer it like this, cos i always did get confused when people talked about a horse for the sun alliance i used to always have to ask, the chase or the hurdles especially if it was a relatively unknown novice for me. I suppose it all boils down to how good with names you are, personally for me i have to write them all down before i bet them, cos as sure as eggs are eggs, i will have forgotten their names before i got to the shop to bet them. By shop i mean cos 99% of my antepost bets are cash in shop, not online. Prefer it that way, then try and keep all the winning and placed slips till after the last race of the festival, when the shops have got relatively quiet then go and collect them all at the same time! Gives me a false sense of achievement for a few minutes picking up a nice big wad of cash even if it has been a losing antepost portfolio, and i aint had too many of them this last few years, Royal Ascot last year being only one in around 4 years of trying!

The owner of BB was interviewed on ATR yesterday about this race. I couldn't hear what he said clearly but thought he said Celestial Halo WOULD NOT run in the world hurdle ?? Did I hear that wrong ..

Nope, you heard correctly, CH does NOT run in the world hurdle!

Get the wheel barrow out for OW each way, lay off in place market on the day imo! Wont be a better bet all week!

Well,thinking about it they probably think CH deserves a crack at winning a race,given his form this season.

Barry will have to play Oscar after last behind Bucks, if still within range otherwise no chance of winning should be a great tactical race,with Oscar bet to nothing at 5/1 e/w imo.

Did Andy Stewart suggest where CH will run?

Presumably the Champion Hurdle ..

You'd expect so Sint, but someone on here suggested the County which is an intriguing suggestion.

LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE
Class 1, Grade 1, £260,000 Total Prize Fund, three miles. Cheltenham, 3.20pm, Thursday, March 15, three miles.
Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
2206-33 BARWELL BRIDGE 6 Tracy Brown Warren Greatrex
1111-11 BIG BUCK'S (FR) 9 The Stewart Family Paul Nicholls
0214-35 CARLITO BRIGANTE (IRE) 6 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott IRE
124/0P-5 CRACK AWAY JACK 8 GDM Partnership Paul Nicholls
214-545 CROSS KENNON (IRE) 8 P & Mrs G A Clarke Jennie Candlish
3216-14 DYNASTE (FR) 6 John White David Pipe
13U-112 FEATHERBED LANE (IRE) 7 Terry Warner Philip Hobbs
11-6541 FINAL APPROACH 6 Douglas Taylor Willie Mullins IRE
36-0222 FIVE DREAM (FR) 8 Scott-MacDonald, Kilduff, Donlon & Doyle Paul Nicholls
1F0-114 KING OF THE NIGHT (GER) 8 Mr & Mrs G Calder Paul Nicholls
F-40311 MIKAEL D'HAGUENET (FR) 8 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
13-2422 MOURAD (IRE) 7 Teahon Consulting Limited Willie Mullins IRE
131-F11 OSCAR WHISKY (IRE) 7 Walters Plant Hire Ltd Nicky Henderson
122-1 OUR FATHER (IRE) 6 The Ives & Johnson Families David Pipe
3011/1-1 QUEVEGA (FR) 8 Hammer & Trowel Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
121(1)15- RECESSION PROOF (FR) 6 P Taylor & J Stone John Quinn
3-20232 SAPHIR RIVER (FR) 6 Fat Gary Sports Michael Scudamore
621310- SMAD PLACE (FR) 5 Mrs Peter Andrews Alan King
13-6111 SO YOUNG (FR) 6 Mrs M McMahon Willie Mullins IRE
UF-4U02 THE GIANT BOLSTER 7 Simon Hunt David Bridgwater
2-22112 THOUSAND STARS (FR) 8 Hammer & Trowel Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
1-14111 VOLER LA VEDETTE (IRE) 8 Mrs M Brophy Colm Murphy IRE
1220-11 ZAIDPOUR (FR) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
23 entries remain after February 14 scratchings deadline
9 Irish-trained
THE FOLLOWING 11 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: BOBBY EWING (IRE), BOBS WORTH (IRE), CANTLOW (IRE), CELESTIAL HALO (IRE), EL DANCER (GER), FLAT OUT (FR), PETTIFOUR (IRE), POUNGACH (FR), PRIMA VISTA, RESTLESS HARRY, TIDAL BAY (IRE)

Can't really see any good front runners in there. Think that will suit OW?

OW out of CH so def running in World Hurdle now. I think he will def do well he's a high class horse. Hopefully his stamina will last out.

hes such a good traveller,he will be ok whatever.

Racing post still have Oscar whisky as an entry for the Champion Hurdle. I'm not prepared to back him for
the world hurdle until he's pulled out of the Champion hurdle which will probably be at the 5 day stage.

The YTSer that does the RP database hasn't updated it yet tinkler, OW was scratched from the CH today.  He'd have to be supplemented to run in it now.

Just noticed on the Champion hurdle thread that he's been scratched , thanks BJG.

Cann't see them supplementing him so have backed him at 5/1. Don't usually back e/w and have decided not
to on this mainly due to the possiblity of a lot of decent quality Irish horses running and you'd
be getting evens that he finishes in one of the 2 avaiable places as Big bucks is probably 1/10 to finish
in the first 3.

big bucks will get beat one day and considering (to my eyes at least) his 'flat spot' is becoming more pronounced (dynaste is at least 15-20 lbs behind Oscar), then i think it'll be by oscar whisky..i'm not at all worried he hasn't run over 3m...the way he's been on bridle at 2m5f and the uncertain pace in the race (and I can't see big bucks making it) then i don't see the extra 3f as a problem...

big bucks will get beat one day and considering (to my eyes at least) his 'flat spot' is becoming more pronounced (dynaste is at least 15-20 lbs behind Oscar), then i think it'll be by oscar whisky..i'm not at all worried he hasn't run over 3m...the way he's been on bridle at 2m5f and the uncertain pace in the race (and I can't see big bucks making it) then i don't see the extra 3f as a problem...

Not sure how you work out Dynaste being 20lb behind Oscars and I think you can expect the race to be run at a faster pace that the 4 and 5 runner races he has run in over 2m5.  From the little I know of such things it seems he is bred to stay but hard to get excited about 5/1 IMO

guess that all depends on what you think of Dynastes rating.Before he got thrashed by BB he was on 141.Oscar is on 165.Since hes been up against BB his rating has risen to 158.
I suspect hes roughly a stone inferior to OW over 2m5 possibly more.
Over 3m?,depends on how well OW stays,which is all the race hinges on as far as Oscar is concerned.

A nice run from GMOOH in the Betfair Hurdle.

Henderson also expressed his belief that Oscar Whisky, second-favourite for the Ladbrokes World Hurdle behind Big Buck's despite never racing beyond 2m4½f, will have no problems with the 3m trip.



"He has looked seriously good in his three runs over 2m4½f at Cheltenham and I can't believe the extra three and a half furlongs is going to makea difference," Henderson said.

"We appreciate Big Buck's is close on unbeatable, but it might happen one day. Oscar will be ridden as if he has that 'gear' and you can take it that we'll not be making the running! He's bred to stay."

OSCAR WHISKY HAS ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE!!!!!!

erm,actually he does,bit silly saying a horse has no chance when hes completely unexposed.

Must admit im a tad nervous this morning.
In fact more accurate would be shaking like a leaf!!
God knows what i will be like at 3.20

Come on Oscar!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Didn't stay, simple as.

yep

See opening post. On a line through Overturn I think he would have gone very close but what do I know..

oh dear buddeliea,you really are clueless beyond belief,it really is incredible.
Who's next on the list of Big Bucks Victims?
This was according to you the toughest opposition he's ever come up against,
Dont worry though,The next Novice who win's impressively will no doubt have you jizzing all over your pants in your quest to back a horse capable of beating the best staying hurdler of all time,i hope you done you're conkers,people like you deserve to be potless.
This game doesn't appear to be a strong point of yours

Hi Eric.

^ Damn - you beat me too it Sint

well thats told me

Oscar Whiskey will beat Big Bucks
Has Oscar Whisker finished yet?
and now all you morons are claiming he didn't stay,No doubt thats another excuse that will be flung around to try tarnish Big Bucks' Legacy,Try get this into your thick skulls,Big Bucks is the best staying hurdler there ever has or will be,
Hope this goes some way to helping

it has,thanks clever