Cheltenham Festival
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Considering that this year's Ryanair looks like it has much more strength in depth than either the Gold Cup or the Champion Chase, do you guys think that we could see defections from the Ryanair to both of those races? If so there could be some good value to be had either backing definite runners in the Ryanair in the hope that some of the competition will defect, or backing horses at big prices that might go for the GC or CC.
I think Alberta's Run is one who could well go for the Gold Cup, and Medermit's entry in the Denman suggests that connections are considering stepping him up. If I owned Rubi Light, I'd be sending him for the Gold Cup, I don't think the Lexus was proof he didn't stay, I think he might have just been feeling the effects of the John Durkan in that race. I can't trust Somersby's connections that he'll go for the Ryanair after getting my fingers badly burnt last year (my biggest bet of the festival was him for the Ryanair).
Unless Hold Fast runs really well in the Game Spirit, Nicholls probably won't have a runner, and Kauto Stone would have finished significantly closer to Sizing Europe in the Tingle Creek if he hadn't made that mistake three out, and you'd have to think that Nicholls must be really tempted to run him in the Champion if he doesn't have a runner.
I think Medermit at 50/1 NRNB for the Gold Cup is interesting, as he probably won't run unless he runs well in the rearranged Denman next week, and if he does run well then he won't be a 50/1 shot on the day, as he would have had to improve significantly to take his chance.
I also think that Noble Prince is value for the Ryanair at 6/1, but I'm kicking myself for not taking the 15/2 or 7/1 immediately after he lost to Blazing Tempo. He's had an almost identical Festival Prep to last year, and, unlike many others prominent in the betting, he must be a definite runner. I think Riverside Theatre could be a huge danger, but I can't back with any conviction after a year long absence, but at least we know he's a definite intended runner. The other one I like is Great Endeavour, who is another one representing the red hot Spinal Research Form. He might have handicap alternatives though, and I'd prefer to wait for NRNB, as I can't see his price shortening too much before then, with others helping prop up the market.
I think Alberta's Run is one who could well go for the Gold Cup, and Medermit's entry in the Denman suggests that connections are considering stepping him up. If I owned Rubi Light, I'd be sending him for the Gold Cup, I don't think the Lexus was proof he didn't stay, I think he might have just been feeling the effects of the John Durkan in that race. I can't trust Somersby's connections that he'll go for the Ryanair after getting my fingers badly burnt last year (my biggest bet of the festival was him for the Ryanair).
Unless Hold Fast runs really well in the Game Spirit, Nicholls probably won't have a runner, and Kauto Stone would have finished significantly closer to Sizing Europe in the Tingle Creek if he hadn't made that mistake three out, and you'd have to think that Nicholls must be really tempted to run him in the Champion if he doesn't have a runner.
I think Medermit at 50/1 NRNB for the Gold Cup is interesting, as he probably won't run unless he runs well in the rearranged Denman next week, and if he does run well then he won't be a 50/1 shot on the day, as he would have had to improve significantly to take his chance.
I also think that Noble Prince is value for the Ryanair at 6/1, but I'm kicking myself for not taking the 15/2 or 7/1 immediately after he lost to Blazing Tempo. He's had an almost identical Festival Prep to last year, and, unlike many others prominent in the betting, he must be a definite runner. I think Riverside Theatre could be a huge danger, but I can't back with any conviction after a year long absence, but at least we know he's a definite intended runner. The other one I like is Great Endeavour, who is another one representing the red hot Spinal Research Form. He might have handicap alternatives though, and I'd prefer to wait for NRNB, as I can't see his price shortening too much before then, with others helping prop up the market.
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dta, as well as defections i think you could see a few horses being supplemented as well.
If you did want to back Somersby for Ryanair I wouldn't be put off from last year. He only missed it because his owner was in hospital on the Thursday. |
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I know I was unlucky not to get a run for my money last year, but he ran creditably in the race last year, and I just think that the connections might want to give it another go, seeing as he just one one of the major trials, and because the Champion is looking a much weaker race this year.
Who do you think might be supplemented? |
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Be absolutely amazed if Albertas goes Gold Cup,tried it once and got well stuffed.Hes much more comfortable at the Ryanair distance round Cheltenham,as has been proved twice.
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I disagree tbh, last seasons novices have been seriously disapointing. Would be more than happy to swerve Noble Prince, I think the only threats to Albertus Run are Somersby and Kauto Stone... Outside of that I really can't see Berty getting beat. Last year Rubi Light was beat fair and square and for me won't reverse form...
14/1 is the EW bet of the festival (assuming the ground is around the good or good to soft bracket) |
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Agree re Albertas Run, if ready will go the Ryanair route - as much as anything looks like JJ will have Synchronised in GC and will definitely want AP aboard.
As far as the other races whilst there may not be strength in depth, there is significant strength at the very top of the market in both races imo and none of the horses you mention have a chance of winning with the possible exception of Somersby. He is the only horse that can beat Sizing Europe, not that I think he will |
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^ Agree with this (although I think Finians Rainbow is a serious danger to Sizing Europe).
I think the Ryanair is a very competitive race, but I don't think it is as good as the other championship events, as you'd expect. The reason it's such a tough one to call is that there is no outstanding contender in my opinion - not that there are stacks of great horses running in it. |
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dta, sorry for late reply. As far as supplements go, I'd consider Blazing Tempo for Gold Cup if she was mine. That is pocket talking though to be fair, but don't think she would be a forlorn hope.
Apart from her, I think there may be connections of a few decent h'cappers watching the Gold Cup situation closely. You could take your pick with them though. |
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Is it an entry stage again today?
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Forfreit stage. Should be out soon I'd have thought.
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