Cheltenham Festival
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Hi
I have to admit this year value at Cheltenham has been totally sucked out of most of the markets imo; but I think I may be onto to corker. Depending on one very key point will he run.
So the County Hurdle and Celestial Halo. Currently a 25/1 shot.
He has a 100% strike rate in Handicaps.
Goes well in the conditions.
Can carry the big weights.
Very classy animal on his day.
Right the issue is will Paul Nicholls run him in the race off 165? Top weight has been rated in the last 5 seasons (2011 1st); 153, 152, 147, 141, 161.
Now importantly for my thought process, the last horse to carry in the 160's was trained by Nicholls.
Surely it makes sence to run him here, he CAN'T win a Champion Hurdle, but he could win this. I think if he turns up 25/1 is a great bet. Or will he just make the pace for Big Bucks perhaps?
Thoughts?
I have to admit this year value at Cheltenham has been totally sucked out of most of the markets imo; but I think I may be onto to corker. Depending on one very key point will he run.
So the County Hurdle and Celestial Halo. Currently a 25/1 shot.
He has a 100% strike rate in Handicaps.
Goes well in the conditions.
Can carry the big weights.
Very classy animal on his day.
Right the issue is will Paul Nicholls run him in the race off 165? Top weight has been rated in the last 5 seasons (2011 1st); 153, 152, 147, 141, 161.
Now importantly for my thought process, the last horse to carry in the 160's was trained by Nicholls.
Surely it makes sence to run him here, he CAN'T win a Champion Hurdle, but he could win this. I think if he turns up 25/1 is a great bet. Or will he just make the pace for Big Bucks perhaps?
Thoughts?
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from Nicholls blog I reckon they will go Champion Hurdle
and if they go in the hcp they are bound to run into some plotted up thing that has run with the handbrake on all it's life and has 20lb in hand |
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Think maybe the latter, Nicholls has good few in County Hurdle but may run to keep weights down for likes of Empire Levant?
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Didn't Nicholls put on twitter a couple of weeks ago the Empire in the County is his bet of the week? And if so, do you believe him?
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Celestial will go CH I reckon
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I don't think he's been ruled out of the World Hurdle yet either (might they want a pacemaker for Big buck's to ensure a proper stamina test?).
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I'd imagine he'll run in one of the Grade 1s as that what connections seem to like to do at the festival. The same comments apply to Poquelin. I think he, much like Celestial Halo, is far better at giving away weight to inferior horses, and if they had any sense they would run him in the Plate on the Thursday with Derham on.
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Tbh I would see the value in him being in the World Hurdle just to ensure the pace. Would be quite stupid to run him in the Champion Hurdle imo.
Extreme I meant to say that with regards to Halo, stick Harry on board so he only carries 11-5 (or is he only a 5lb claim now)? |