Cheltenham Festival
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Very excited to see that we are now just five weeks away so I thought I'd ask five pertinent questions for ante-post players at this point in time. Here goes:
A) What is the best trading option available at present (i.e. which horse is available at a price that will definitely contract by the day of race)?
I think Mount Benbulben is hugely overpriced at 12s for the Albert Bartlett. His form stands up to the closest scrutiny, and he was not right after being beaten by the uber-talented Boston Bob last time. Confirmed as going straight for this race and with plenty of the opposition looking to be heading elsewhere, there is no way this one starts bigger than 6s or 7s.
B) How many of the following will win (Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's)?
I think three. The first two and one of the latter pair. It's a question worth asking because if you think at least three will win then 4 trebles and a four-timer should see you in front.
C) Which is the better value - Long Run at 3.30 or Kauto Star at 5.30?
Kauto Star for me. For all that Long Run should be better suited by the Gold Cup trip and track, the King has been imperious this season and people are forgetting that he stayed more than well enough to win the race twice before. The key to him, as it is with most chasers, is getting into a rhythm. When he does that he conserves stamina much more effectively, and as his jumping has been mustard and there is no Denman to hassle him this time, there is every reason to expect Ruby can outride Sam when it matters and get Kauto home in front, for what would surely be the greatest reception in living memory.
D) Which races will the following horses contest (Bog Warrior, Sir Des Champs, Somersby, Boston Bob)?
BW - Arkle (but should be in the Jewson)
SDC - Jewson (but should be in the RSA)
Somersby - Queen Mother (connections will be swayed by beating Finian's last time and seeing Big Zeb run so flat since)
Boston Bob - Neptune (Mullins usually goes here with his best horse and I think this is it in 2012)
E) What is the worst value bet on offer at the moment?
Grandouet at around the 7-1 mark. Improving and very smart but simply not as good as Hurricane Fly, Binocular and one or two of the others. Has the profile of a 2011 Menorah for me - very smart, likeable horse, but the merit of his form does not quite stack up to making him a second-favourite for this one.
A) What is the best trading option available at present (i.e. which horse is available at a price that will definitely contract by the day of race)?
I think Mount Benbulben is hugely overpriced at 12s for the Albert Bartlett. His form stands up to the closest scrutiny, and he was not right after being beaten by the uber-talented Boston Bob last time. Confirmed as going straight for this race and with plenty of the opposition looking to be heading elsewhere, there is no way this one starts bigger than 6s or 7s.
B) How many of the following will win (Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's)?
I think three. The first two and one of the latter pair. It's a question worth asking because if you think at least three will win then 4 trebles and a four-timer should see you in front.
C) Which is the better value - Long Run at 3.30 or Kauto Star at 5.30?
Kauto Star for me. For all that Long Run should be better suited by the Gold Cup trip and track, the King has been imperious this season and people are forgetting that he stayed more than well enough to win the race twice before. The key to him, as it is with most chasers, is getting into a rhythm. When he does that he conserves stamina much more effectively, and as his jumping has been mustard and there is no Denman to hassle him this time, there is every reason to expect Ruby can outride Sam when it matters and get Kauto home in front, for what would surely be the greatest reception in living memory.
D) Which races will the following horses contest (Bog Warrior, Sir Des Champs, Somersby, Boston Bob)?
BW - Arkle (but should be in the Jewson)
SDC - Jewson (but should be in the RSA)
Somersby - Queen Mother (connections will be swayed by beating Finian's last time and seeing Big Zeb run so flat since)
Boston Bob - Neptune (Mullins usually goes here with his best horse and I think this is it in 2012)
E) What is the worst value bet on offer at the moment?
Grandouet at around the 7-1 mark. Improving and very smart but simply not as good as Hurricane Fly, Binocular and one or two of the others. Has the profile of a 2011 Menorah for me - very smart, likeable horse, but the merit of his form does not quite stack up to making him a second-favourite for this one.
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a) simonsig(supreme)
b) no idea as the ground may play a part c) long run d) no idea e) saddlers risk (triumph 8.40) too many outsiders yet to play their hands in that race, and the frozen tracks wont help either! |
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A. Kauto Stone Ryanair
B. 3 C.LR D. BW won't run, SDS Jewson, Somersby Queen Mother, Boston Bob Neptune E. Tough one here I would say Peddlers Cross at 4/1 just because of his run lto. That doesn't mean I don't think he has a gd chance but he should be about 7's minimum based on his chase form. Of course he was superb in last years Champion Hurdle & that form would see him go very close but we have not seen him run to that level since. Found that quite a tough one to pick though really think a lot of the markets are spot on. |
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a) Rocky Creek 14/1 Albert Bartlett
b) I'd have to say the lot - Quevega and Big Bucks are penalty kicks, the other two are less certainties for me but should still win c) Long Run - don't get me started on a 12yo chances in the Gold Cup e) Voler La Vadette - 4/1 for a horse who probably won't make the race and even if she does line up she'll be outclassed by Quevega just as she has been the two times they've previously met |
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A. High risk; but if he turns up in the Festival Chase (William Hill Chase) Bensalem at the 50's on here is simply huge. Would be a 10/1 shot if he lines up imo. Your effectivley backing a 2 time champion in the race.
B. Reckon all 4. C. Long Run D. Bog Worrior will run in the Arkle (if he comes over), will have a big more dig in the ground. Sir Des Champs I think would run in the RSA, looks an out an out stayer. Somersby; Ryanair Chase. Boston Bob; I reckon he will go for the Neptune. Interesting that Ruby said he "hated" the heavy ground. He could be a monster. 5. Fingal Bay in the Neptune, looks a stayer so should run in the Albert Bartlett. Also haven't been impressed by him that much at all to be honest, saw him the day he won at Cheltenham and wasn't that impressed with him physically either. |
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1. Sea of Thunder - Albert Bartlett
2. 4 3. Long Run 4. BW wont run, SDS Jewson, somersby Ryanair, BB Neptune 5. Grands Crus RSA - will need oxygen up the hill imo |
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1- somersby if runs in the champion chase,14/1 just now will start 6/1 if runs.
2-hurricane fly and big bucks. 3-none cos neither will win. 4-hell knows 5-grand crus in rsa chase cos he wont run in it. |
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A:Divers Byrne plate
B:Until we have a better idea of the final fields that's difficult.Quevega the strongest of the quartet at the moment C:Kauto Star D:Bog Warrior would be fascinating if allowed to take his chance in the Arkle,Sir Des Champs Jewson,Somersby champion chase,Boston Bob Neptune E:Sprinter Sacre |
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A) Poquelin at 20-1 in the Ryanair. It went off at 2-1 fav after clocking an rpr of 172 on it's preceding run. This year it has just banged in a 171 which is higher than all the likely runners have ever achieved with the exception of Riverside Theatre (172). Definite runner and loves the new course as shown so many times. Should be half the current price.
B)All of them except Quevega if Voler runs. C)Prices are spot on. D)Bog Warrior - No show SDC - Jewson, no question whatsoever in my mind - they already have FL and LI in the RSA, and it's been campaigned at the Jewson distance Somersby - Ryanair as she has already said. Sizing will have made her doubly sure ! Boston Bob - Neptune hopefully ! E) Grands Crus in the Gold Cup - Trainer has alluded to the entry being made "in case anything happens to the favourites". It's already been mooted as a runner for the Betfair Chase (bottled) and the Argento Chase (bottled) and common sense will surely prevail again. Even if it does run then it's going to get mashed up by the big two up the hill. There's talk every year of the top novice taking on the big boys but it hardly ever happens and quite right too. |
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Howya Tom, here goes
Best trading option available at present? A: Quel Esprit. Still available @ 33s for the GC now, will be single digits after he trots up at Leop on Sunday. B:Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Sizing Europe, Big Buck's? Hf and SE are bankers imho. Between them,Volor da Vadette and Oscar Whiskey can make life difficult respectively for Quevega and BB. Also keep a close eye on So Young if he's confirmed for the stayers, a serious racehorse. C:Long Run at 3.30 or Kauto Star at 5.30? Long Run D) Which races will the following horses contest? Bog Warrior, RSA Sir Des Champs, Jewson Somersby,Ryanair Boston Bob, Neptune E) What is the worst value bet on offer at the moment? Noble Prince, not in the same league as many who follow him in the Ryanair market |
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A) Difficult question with the markets getting sucked to death by tipsters...
But think Grumeti can only shorten 10-1 now but think he will be 5/6 joint favorite come the day... Think Weird Al also could be a springer in the gold cup 20's now but think he could end up around 12-14... B) I think 3 but will have Quevega, Big Bucks and Sizing Europe which is Nap of the meeting for me at the stand out price... should be 2-5 on the form book... C) Neither are value - with the jockey on board Long Run and Kauto 12 and looking faster by the year... D) Bog Warrior - not sure he should go as think he is a soft ground horse sunday will tell us more...but he is a rapid improver and deserves respect...maybe Arkle just to answer question... Sir Des Champs - not sure as think he wants 3 miles but not good enough for RSA so Jewson just on the class factor... Somersby - Charity race maybe his best option but all seriousness think maybe the Ryannair as think he will travel and I will be the first on the pink button 3 out  rechid creature Boston Bob - think he may go neptune but think he is a penalty kick in the Albert Bartlett...mullins runners sunday will answer this question in full... E) Well think Scotsirish is a horrible price in the cross country at around 3-1...he is getting better over the banks but always said he was not a horse to take a price about and at around 3-1 does not appeal at all...was going to say Noble Prince but think he is about the price he should be... |
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a) Laying the top ten in the betting in the Triumph represents the best trading opportunity. The market will get a real shake up this weekend, we're bound to have a couple of new favourites, and something that hasnt even run yet will probably win it. Other than that I reckon Simonsig will almost definitely go off at less than half its current price in the Supreme.
b) Quevega will probably dash up, Sizing Europe should win comfortably, Big Buck's seems to be up against a decent field but should still win so that's three. Hurricane Fly is the one that feels like a shock in waiting, but I cant make a logical case for it not winning. I'll say 3. But I'm not doing a multi, rock solid favourites get turned over year in, year out. c) I think Long Run will beat Kauto. The value is probably picking the handicapper that runs into a place. I'll go Boston's Angel. d) If they were mine; Bog Warrior - Arkle Sir Des Champs - RSA Somersby - hold him back for the 2013 2m2f Thursday night Championship Race (or the QMCC) Boston Bob - Albert Bartlett, but my book is praying for them to choose the Neptune. e) I think laying Sprinter Sacre, Quevega, Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Grand Crus, Big Buck's and Long Run in singles to level stakes would probably be profitable. I'll be taking on most of them. Maybe not Sizing Europe. |
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A) boston bob (neptune)
B) all except for sizing cant see what beats him yet though C) On the book long run exceptional value,still dont like him D) bw - wont go , sdc - jewson , somersby - ryanair , bb - ,neptune E) Every horse in the triump - minefield !!  |