Cheltenham Festival
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ted walsh says the 3 wont be beaten at cheltenham...thoughts please.
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Could be the only time I've ever agreed with him.
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I am amazed he said that and did not include Sizing.
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only talking about ruperts rides id think
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hes correct - a nice 6_1 treble
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fly 5/6 , big bucks 4/7, quevega 1/1 treble comes to 5.6 to 1 which includes your own stake Zealot, if you can get 6/1 on the treble let us know and i will bring the wheelbarrow with me.
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i dont think ted walsh has ever been rite about anything so that aint gonna happen, ive only known **** to come out of his mouth and not much else
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These 3 to me look bombproof, but experience tells me it just ain't that simple.
We can quibble with eg the well being of hardly raced Quevega (will she have any opposition with VLV and Unaccompanied likely to go elsewhere??) Can Oscar Whisky possibly trouble the machine? Have to go with a 'NO'. At this stage I would see the Fly being the 'most' dodgy of the 3 and I don't see that as very dodgy at all. |
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In the past three years there have been 38 Favourites that have started 3-1 or under at the Festival, you would have lost over 20% of your bank following them
11 wins including 5 from just Big Bucks and Quevega Not really the place to be hammering short priced ones, the danger being that you cant see a course of events possibly happening and bet accordingly |
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So zilzal, you are saying steam into Quevega and Bucksy
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LOL, if a certain runner turns up i'll be having a bet against the latter for the 1st time in the World Hurdle.
I dont think ive backed anything under 3/1 for god knows how many years |
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I can't remember the last time I backed at under 3/1 either Zilzal. II honestly think it might have been Wayward Lad in the Gold Cup! I've take prices about horses that started at less than that but that has been my threshold for many years.
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I wonder how many of those 38 favourites were in novice events. We see it time and time again where the next "machine" is hyped up after it destroys a small, inexperienced field while running over heavy ground on a flat track during the winter.
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You don't have to back under 3/1 lads, just fire these in a treble!
Chaaaaaaaaaaaaarge then boooooom, booooooooOOOOM, and BBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM! The game is easy. |
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In answer Shannon only three novices in that period won, Bobsworth, MDH and Cooldine, 5 were BB and Quevega and Hurricane Fly, Kauto Star and Master Minded were other winners
Theres a fair spread and a good few experienced horses get turned over, Master Minded twice, Poquelin Three times, Vor por, L Ami, Garde Champetre, Binocular, Kasbah Bliss, Kauto Star |
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am i correct in saying the mares hurdle has been switched from
the last day of the festival to the first day . because if it is it could make a big difference to the result . anyone. |
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Interesting addendum to zilzal's post, I know for a fact that both MDH and Cooldine were available at 9/2 on the morning of their races, so that is even more worrying for shor priced novice backers. Cannot remember if Bobs Worth was backed down late, know he was short at 15/8, RP says opened 5/2 on course?
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longchamps, the mares hurdle has been on the Tuesday for years, since at least 2008.
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bobsworth was availaable t 5/2 generally in the morning but 10/3 or 7/2 with baldfred.
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^*short, typo not ignorance, onest guv!
Thanks SoLW, hopefully ragfred took a hammering  |
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Zilzal, so the rule of thumb is that we do not look at a horse which priced at under 3/1 at the festival unless it is trained by Mullins or Nicholls. The only exception over the past 3 years was Bobs Worth which is trained by Henderson. All other horses priced below that level over the past 3 years were beaten (though a few of those were probably trained by this pair) .
Therefore the treble of HF, Quevega and Big Bucks should be considered. Alternatively, lay all horses at 3/1 or under not trained by Mullins or Nicholls. |
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Shannon however Master Minded twice, Poquelin three times and Master Minded were all trained by PN so that is six losers. Not certain re WMs but Cousin Vinny was a loser when starting at 9/4.
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So 38 runners, less 10 winners trained by Nicolls or Mullins, less the 7 identified by you to which you can add Kauto = 21 possible horses trained by others, out of which only one (Bobs Worth) appears to have won.
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I have a feeling this is being overcomplicated!
Not sure the trainer angle is worth getting too invested in - seems to make sense to steer clear of short-priced novices, but otherwise it's just a class thing. The best horses usually win, and right now Hurricane Fly, Quevega (  ) and Big Buck's look like the best in their races by some way.Buck's is, oddly, for me, the one I would be less confident about purely because we never know how much in hand he actually has over his rivals, and there is still (ridiculous probably, given his unreal record) this nagging doubt of mine that he could be done for toe by a really good horse that stays well too. That could be Oscar Whisky, who knows? |
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2003-2011 under 3/1 all trainers 94 runners 29 winners level £1 stake -17.76
Top trainers; Nicholls 23 runners 9 winners -£2.32 Mullins 9 runners 6 winners +8.83 Henderson 6 runners 1 winner -3.2 M or D Pipe 6 runners 1 winner -3 jonjo 6 runners 2 winners -1.62 everyone else 44 runners 10 winners -16.52 everyone except Mullins and Nicholls 62 runners 14 winners -24.27 everyone except Mullins 85 runenrs 23 winners -26.59 11/03/2003;IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Azertyuiop;Paul Nicholls;5/4;1 11/03/2003;SMURFIT CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY SHOWCASE RACE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Rhinestone Cowboy;Jonjo O'Neill;5/2;3 12/03/2003;ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE NOVICES' HURDLE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Pizarro;E J O'Grady;2/1;2 12/03/2003;ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE CHASE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Keen Leader;Jonjo O'Neill;9/4;5 12/03/2003;QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Moscow Flyer;Mrs John Harrington;7/4;1 12/03/2003;133RD YEAR OF THE NATIONAL HUNT CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (AMATEUR RIDERS' NOVICES' CHASE) CLASS B (2);Stormez;M C Pipe;7/4;2 12/03/2003;WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Liberman;M C Pipe;2/1;1 13/03/2003;BONUSPRINT STAYERS' HURDLE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Limestone Lad;James Bowe;9/4;3 13/03/2003;BONUSPRINT STAYERS' HURDLE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Baracouda;F Doumen;9/4;1 13/03/2003;TOTE CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE SHOWCASE RACE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Best Mate;Henrietta Knight;13/8;1 13/03/2003;CHRISTIE'S FOXHUNTER CHASE CHALLENGE CUP CLASS B (2);Kingscliff;Mrs S Alner;11/4;1 13/03/2003;CATHCART CHALLENGE CUP CHASE CLASS A GRADE 2 (1);La Landiere;Richard Phillips;5/4;1 16/03/2004;IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Thisthatandtother;Paul Nicholls;5/2;F 16/03/2004;SMURFIT CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Rooster Booster;Philip Hobbs;11/8;2 17/03/2004;ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE NOVICES' HURDLE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Inglis Drever;Howard Johnson;7/4;2 17/03/2004;ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE CHASE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Our Vic;M C Pipe;11/8;3 17/03/2004;QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Azertyuiop;Paul Nicholls;15/8;1 17/03/2004;QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Moscow Flyer;Mrs John Harrington;5/6;U 18/03/2004;BONUSPRINT.COM STAYERS' HURDLE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Baracouda;F Doumen;8/11;2;4423 18/03/2004;TOTESPORT CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Best Mate;Henrietta Knight;8/11;1 18/03/2004;CATHCART CHALLENGE CUP CHASE CLASS A GRADE 2 (1);Iris Royal;Nicky Henderson;11/4;2 18/03/2004;CATHCART CHALLENGE CUP CHASE CLASS A GRADE 2 (1);La Landiere;Richard Phillips;5/2;6 15/03/2005;IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);War Of Attrition;M F Morris;11/4;7 16/03/2005;QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Azertyuiop;Paul Nicholls;2/1;3 16/03/2005;QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Moscow Flyer;Mrs John Harrington;6/4;1 17/03/2005;DAILY TELEGRAPH FESTIVAL TROPHY CHASE CLASS A GRADE 2 (1);Our Vic;M C Pipe;7/4;P 17/03/2005;LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE CLASS A GRADE 1 (1);Baracouda;F Doumen;6/5;2 18/03/2005;BRIT INSURANCE NOVICES' HURDLE CLASS A (REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES' HURDLE) GRADE 2 (1);Brewster;Ian Williams;9/4;3 14/03/2006;ANGLO IRISH BANK SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Sweet Wake;Noel Meade;5/2;5 14/03/2006;SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (1);Brave Inca;C A Murphy;7/4;1 15/03/2006;ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Denman;Paul Nicholls;11/10;2 15/03/2006;QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Kauto Star;Paul Nicholls;2/1;F 15/03/2006;WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (A STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE) GRADE 1 (1);Equus Maximus;W P Mullins;5/2;12 17/03/2006;BRIT INSURANCE NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 2 (1);Black Jack Ketchum;Jonjo O'Neill;Evens;1 17/03/2006;CHRISTIE'S FOXHUNTER CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (2);Harbour Pilot;Noel Meade;11/4;P 13/03/2007;ANGLO IRISH BANK SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Amaretto Rose;Nicky Henderson;2/1;3 13/03/2007;SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (1);Detroit City;Philip Hobbs;6/4;6 13/03/2007;SPORTING INDEX HANDICAP CHASE (CROSS COUNTRY) (2);Heads Onthe Ground;E Bolger;5/2;1 14/03/2007;BALLYMORE PROPERTIES NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Aran Concerto;Noel Meade;5/2;5 14/03/2007;ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Denman;Paul Nicholls;6/5;1 14/03/2007;SEASONS HOLIDAYS QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Well Chief;David Pipe;Evens;F 15/03/2007;RYANAIR CHASE GRADE 2 (1);Monet's Garden;Nicky Richards;7/4;4 15/03/2007;LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Black Jack Ketchum;Jonjo O'Neill;2/1;F 15/03/2007;137TH YEAR OF THE NATIONAL HUNT CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (AMATEUR RIDERS' NOVICES' CHASE) (2);Gungadu;Paul Nicholls;2/1;F 16/03/2007;BRIT INSURANCE NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 2 (1);Wichita Lineman;Jonjo O'Neill;11/8;1 16/03/2007;TOTESPORT CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Kauto Star;Paul Nicholls;5/4;1 16/03/2007;CHRISTIE'S FOXHUNTER CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (2);Whyso Mayo;Raymond Hurley;2/1;2 16/03/2007;JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHASE CHALLENGE CUP (HANDICAP) GRADE 3 (1);Saintsaire;Paul Nicholls;5/2;6 11/03/2008;IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Noland;Paul Nicholls;7/4;3 11/03/2008;SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (1);Sizing Europe;Henry De Bromhead;2/1;14 11/03/2008;BGC HANDICAP CHASE (CROSS COUNTRY CHASE) (2);Wonderkid;A J Martin;5/2;6 11/03/2008;FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (1);Ashkazar;David Pipe;15/8;2 11/03/2008;FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (1);River Liane;Thomas Cooper;11/4;12 13/03/2008;SEASONS HOLIDAYS QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Voy Por Ustedes;Alan King;5/2;2 13/03/2008;LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Inglis Drever;Howard Johnson;11/8;1 13/03/2008;RACING POST PLATE (HANDICAP CHASE) GRADE 3 (1);Don't Push It;Jonjo O'Neill;5/2;F 14/03/2008;JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Franchoek;Alan King;Evens;2 14/03/2008;TOTESPORT CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Kauto Star;Paul Nicholls;10/11;2 14/03/2008;TOTESPORT CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Denman;Paul Nicholls;9/4;1 10/03/2009;WILLIAMHILL.COM SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Cousin Vinny;W P Mullins;9/4;5 10/03/2009;SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (1);Binocular;Nicky Henderson;6/4;3 10/03/2009;GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE CROSS COUNTRY CHASE (2);L'Ami;E Bolger;7/4;2 10/03/2009;DAVID NICHOLSON MARES' HURDLE GRADE 2 (1);Quevega;W P Mullins;2/1;1 11/03/2009;BALLYMORE NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Mikael D'Haguenet;W P Mullins;5/2;1 11/03/2009;RSA CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Cooldine;W P Mullins;9/4;1 11/03/2009;SEASONS HOLIDAYS QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Master Minded;Paul Nicholls;4/11;1 11/03/2009;FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES' HANDICAP HURDLE GRADE 3 (1);Alexander Severus;E J O'Grady;5/2;4 11/03/2009;WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER (STANDARD OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE) GRADE 1 (1);Rite Of Passage;D K Weld;5/2;3 12/03/2009;RYANAIR CHASE (REGISTERED AS THE FESTIVAL TROPHY CHASE) GRADE 1 (1);Voy Por Ustedes;Alan King;4/5;2 12/03/2009;LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Kasbah Bliss;F Doumen;10/11;4 13/03/2009;TOTESPORT CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Kauto Star;Paul Nicholls;7/4;1 16/03/2010;SPINAL RESEARCH SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Dunguib;Philip Fenton;4/5;3 16/03/2010;IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Captain Cee Bee;Edward P Harty;5/2;8 16/03/2010;SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (1);Go Native;Noel Meade;11/4;10 16/03/2010;GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE (A CROSS COUNTRY CHASE) (2);Garde Champetre;E Bolger;7/4;5 16/03/2010;DAVID NICHOLSON MARES' HURDLE GRADE 2 (1);Voler La Vedette;C A Murphy;9/4;3 16/03/2010;DAVID NICHOLSON MARES' HURDLE GRADE 2 (1);Quevega;W P Mullins;6/4;1 17/03/2010;RSA CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Long Run;Nicky Henderson;11/4;3 17/03/2010;RSA CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Punchestowns;Nicky Henderson;2/1;5 17/03/2010;SEASONS HOLIDAYS QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Master Minded;Paul Nicholls;4/5;4 18/03/2010;PERTEMPS FINAL (HANDICAP HURDLE) (LISTED RACE) (1);Alfie Sherrin;Paul Nicholls;11/4;12 18/03/2010;RYANAIR CHASE (REGISTERED AS THE FESTIVAL TROPHY STEEPLE CHASE) GRADE 1 (1);Poquelin;Paul Nicholls;11/4;2 18/03/2010;LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Big Buck's;Paul Nicholls;5/6;1 19/03/2010;TOTESPORT CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Kauto Star;Paul Nicholls;8/11;F 15/03/2011;STAN JAMES SUPREME NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Cue Card;Colin Tizzard;7/4;4 15/03/2011;IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Medermit;Alan King;11/4;4 15/03/2011;STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (1);Hurricane Fly;W P Mullins;11/4;1 15/03/2011;DAVID NICHOLSON MARES' HURDLE GRADE 2 (1);Quevega;W P Mullins;5/6;1 16/03/2011;NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES' HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);So Young;W P Mullins;2/1;3 16/03/2011;RSA CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Time For Rupert;Paul Webber;7/4;5 16/03/2011;SPORTINGBET.COM QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE GRADE 1 (1);Master Minded;Paul Nicholls;2/1;8 17/03/2011;RYANAIR CHASE (REGISTERED AS THE FESTIVAL TROPHY STEEPLE CHASE) GRADE 1 (1);Poquelin;Paul Nicholls;2/1;4 17/03/2011;LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE GRADE 1 (1);Big Buck's;Paul Nicholls;10/11;1 18/03/2011;ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES' HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES' HURDLE RACE) GRADE 1 (1);Bobs Worth;Nicky Henderson;15/8;1 |
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Tom I agree with you re Big Bucks. Three months ago I considered him a total cert but would now rate The Fly and Sizing more bomb-proof than him. However after 3 miles no animal comes up that hill better. In addition I assume Celestial Halo will be there to ensure there is no hanging around. There has to be some doubt, however slight, re Quevega's participation but I cant forget how she scuttled away from the field last year. In addition she beat the boys over 3m the last 2 years at Punchestown. Before that in 09 she was beaten only 3L by by Solwhit and Punjabi in the Irish Champion Hurdle (Punjabi had just won the Champ Hurdle) and if Ruby had made more use of her it would have been closer. We are probably over complicating things re the trainers. Neither PN or WM trained horses like Best Mate, Moscow Flyer and Istabraq. What I like about this years apparent good things is they have all done it before at this level over course and distance and that is good enough for me.
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How on earth did Liberman of all horses go off at 2/1 in the Bumper... and win?
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Thieves thanks for the list.
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Thats a fascinating list. The more you study it, the more it keeps giving. I took a look at handicaps, ignoring the cross country race, in which I don't think weight plays as significant a role as it does in normal races. Not one short priced favourite won a race.
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My pleasure, found the ideas being discussed interesting. Apologies for leaving a Raceform number in next to Baracouda, it didn't really finish 4423rd, I must have got overexcited.
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"The best horses usually win, and right now Hurricane Fly, Quevega (Love) and Big Buck's look like the best in their races by some way."
Interesting thread, but I think that this makes the most sense in terms of backing these horses. They're simply fantastic horses who have spanked everyone on the scene time and time again. Obviously, nothing is a certainty in this game, but I can think of much worse places to divert a little bit of money to at 5.6 to 1. |
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Good stuff Thieves, but just reminded me quite how much I lost on Brewster....!
Back to the original thread, what does everyone think of p poors 'Ruby' special - these 3 plus Kauto at 25s? |
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Sounds like a super bet. As the worst chance is last it has potential to be layed off and/or if the first three come in you have a very nice bet on the Gold Cup 2nd favourite.
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Exactly my thinking. Personally I would much rather have this than the 'reigning champs' special at the current 20s
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already done that champs bet,but see no reason not to do the Ruby bet as well.
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plus it gives me a nice interest in the mares race.dont normally bother too much with that race.
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If you do it with Lads with Fly and BB NRNB, with Quevega not, and she comes out, what happens regarding the treble? Just it simply go on to be a double?
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Nope, if Quevega is a n/r you lose, if any of the other two come out then its a double
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I had a fear that may be the case which is why i'll wait before placing this bet.
I know about the pitfalls of going in on short priced favs (having naively lumped on Dunguib when starting to fall in love with racing, I avoided Cue Card and Time For Rupert like the plague last year and actually backed Al Ferof and Bostons Angel due to stats)there must be a very very good chance these three all win. Fly only having one run all season would normally give me a great deal of concern as stats wise you are looking for a minimum of 3 races pre festival, but all of the main rivals fall down on the stats in more than one way i.e. Grandeout 5, Zarkandar 5 and not raced etc etc. If VLV and Unaccompanied dont turn up it will be cartwheels time again for Quevega and BB is, well, BB!! |
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