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Impressed with Sprinter Sacre.Very good beating average novices at Donny and following that up by slamming an underperforming Peddlers Cross.Looking at his novice hurdle days he beat very little and was outstayed by a grinder in Frascati Park at Ascot
Surely at the prices Al Ferof is a cracking price considering his performance last week(racing with top-class horses) was top draw for a novice.Ruby gave him an education in fencing and with his proven Cheltenham form he will do for me!
Surely at the prices Al Ferof is a cracking price considering his performance last week(racing with top-class horses) was top draw for a novice.Ruby gave him an education in fencing and with his proven Cheltenham form he will do for me!
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At the prices he looks an ew bet to nothing. Cue Card and Menorah don't jump well enough for me and there must be a big question mark over Peddlers Cross.
Sprinter Sacre will take the beating but is already a very skinny price.
Sprinter Sacre will take the beating but is already a very skinny price.
Yes your right..It didnt help when BG had a big smile on his face after the race and thinks he could be one of the best!.He jumps great its whether he can do it without bossing the field like his done in his previous attempts
Al Ferof is the one I keep changing my mind about. Cue Card wins though imo.
just looks slow on his chase form, on my ratings he is 4th best and has to find an enormous amount to trouble the favourite
I have heard this "value" argument plenty this week and it is quite convenient to call it value because after it gets beat you can console yourself with the phrase "at least I had the value"
I know there are plenty who think Cheltenham and all that will make an enormous difference and so on. There is of course a finite chance that this becomes the case and fair enough if it does happen
But I don't believe there is anyway you can say the current odds are value for that to happen. I am 100% certain that Sprinter Sacre would p1ss all over both Sommersby and Finians Rainbow (and the Official Handicapper does too) and Al Ferof couldn't get near them. And this does not take into account either of PC or CC who also have to be beaten.
Anyway, we are not far away now so we will soon find out. It's just that the whole concept of value is very interesting and trying to understand how and why one person thinks a price is good value and another thinks it stinks is a useful exercise which often comes down to the attachment of "significance" to various factors that you will consider in order to form your price.
Once we know the result we will be able to form a much better understanding of which were the significant factors.
I have heard this "value" argument plenty this week and it is quite convenient to call it value because after it gets beat you can console yourself with the phrase "at least I had the value"
I know there are plenty who think Cheltenham and all that will make an enormous difference and so on. There is of course a finite chance that this becomes the case and fair enough if it does happen
But I don't believe there is anyway you can say the current odds are value for that to happen. I am 100% certain that Sprinter Sacre would p1ss all over both Sommersby and Finians Rainbow (and the Official Handicapper does too) and Al Ferof couldn't get near them. And this does not take into account either of PC or CC who also have to be beaten.
Anyway, we are not far away now so we will soon find out. It's just that the whole concept of value is very interesting and trying to understand how and why one person thinks a price is good value and another thinks it stinks is a useful exercise which often comes down to the attachment of "significance" to various factors that you will consider in order to form your price.
Once we know the result we will be able to form a much better understanding of which were the significant factors.
Al Ferof the value.....a valid question Blueboy,after all it is a forum for discussion,and this race bar none has had every piece of form analysed to death on some threads,time maybe to look at it slightly differently.
Listening to Paul Nicholls straight after the supreme he looked genuinely surprised AF had landed the prize,however he also said that the horse had only come to himself the saturday before cheltenham,and really pleased him in his work.He drifted on the day of race and his Sp, bearing in mind connections, reflected his weakness on the day.
Stable tour 2010/2011 he says the horse will want a trip in time,2 1/2 miles maybe more,and he does win over further in a novice race at taunton.However come festival time he goes for the opener and the rest is history,recording a time quicker than the champion hurdle,a rare feat in itself.
This season again stepping up in trip has been mentioned, and yet he has been campaigned exclusively at shorter distances,not even been tried in a weak novice over the longer trip/s.His novice chasing form has been stisfactory,jumping well in the main, and he has jumped cleanly around cheltenham,which for a novice can only be beneficial.
There is no need to try and guess what mark/or/topspeed etc....will be required,or indeed to devalue any of his rivals.Whichever horse can put it together on the day,and that day alone,will rightfully be crowned the champion novice,last years arkle was no different.
Can horses fool trainers?can trainers get them wrong? Looks to me that this horse has genuinely surprised connections throughout his career,he looks the stable number 1 over 2 miles in the novice division,no mean feat in itself.Does he have the firepower??? well we shall find out on the 13th....a race where financial interests are purely a distraction....This race alone is worthy of the entrance fee.....can,t wait.
Listening to Paul Nicholls straight after the supreme he looked genuinely surprised AF had landed the prize,however he also said that the horse had only come to himself the saturday before cheltenham,and really pleased him in his work.He drifted on the day of race and his Sp, bearing in mind connections, reflected his weakness on the day.
Stable tour 2010/2011 he says the horse will want a trip in time,2 1/2 miles maybe more,and he does win over further in a novice race at taunton.However come festival time he goes for the opener and the rest is history,recording a time quicker than the champion hurdle,a rare feat in itself.
This season again stepping up in trip has been mentioned, and yet he has been campaigned exclusively at shorter distances,not even been tried in a weak novice over the longer trip/s.His novice chasing form has been stisfactory,jumping well in the main, and he has jumped cleanly around cheltenham,which for a novice can only be beneficial.
There is no need to try and guess what mark/or/topspeed etc....will be required,or indeed to devalue any of his rivals.Whichever horse can put it together on the day,and that day alone,will rightfully be crowned the champion novice,last years arkle was no different.
Can horses fool trainers?can trainers get them wrong? Looks to me that this horse has genuinely surprised connections throughout his career,he looks the stable number 1 over 2 miles in the novice division,no mean feat in itself.Does he have the firepower??? well we shall find out on the 13th....a race where financial interests are purely a distraction....This race alone is worthy of the entrance fee.....can,t wait.
I like the horse. I think he is a real tryer. I may be proven wrong but I wonder if he has the speed for the race. I think it is informative that the supreme was so fast last year because I think he may have outstayed what may have been better horses in Cue Card and especially Sprinter Sacre. I can't remember whether it was going to two out or just after but they were both travelling powerfully with Al Ferof being quite vigorously ridden and not really going anywhere. Whilst he ran on really well I think the fact that the Arkle is half a furlong shorter, Sprinter Sacre is a year older and Geraghty will hold onto him for longer means that whilst the value has gone he is the most likely winner. If anything can beat him I could make a case for a rejuvenated Peddlers but I slightly question whether he jumps fast enough to do so.
Well reasoned Eternal.....tactics will play a large part,and how they handle the parade ring etc.....
As for speed,think thats my point,if he can translate his hurdle speed to his fencing,he will be a tough nut to crack.Exactly same comments apply to PC, his strength in the market can only mean people think he will be back to his best.
As for speed,think thats my point,if he can translate his hurdle speed to his fencing,he will be a tough nut to crack.Exactly same comments apply to PC, his strength in the market can only mean people think he will be back to his best.
Found this interesting when talking about this fascinating race and where value may lay:
There are so many punters out there that are not able to process both the fact based and intuitive elements that need to factored in to make effective and well rounded gambling choices at Cheltenham that open up the opportunity for the rest of us.
The races that most require punters to read between the lines as well as take a literal interpretation of the facts are the novice races and the bumper. Because I recognize the opportunity for value is greatest in these races, I have always focused more of my time and attention on these. Had it not been for my return on these races then my festivals would be financially unsuccessful.
The most important ingredient of all for winning novice races at Cheltenham is the one ingredient that punters have to be intuitive about. In other words they will not find the answer in time figures or literal interpretation of facts. They will not find the answer in collateral form. The ingredient is one you are very aware of and ironically most punters are. The mistake that is made is that punters underweight this ingredient in their selection process.
The ingredient of course is the ability to show the necessary stamina and heart to ‘put it down’ when it most matters i.e. the final 2 furlongs in a race run significantly faster than anything they have ever experienced before. For a horse to not tick this box and still win one of these races I believe it would have to be in a different parish class wise. While this is not impossible I am prepared to take a financial loss when this happens as I haven’t seen it happen yet despite there being many rumours suggesting ;this is the year’
So lets take Sprinter Sacre. Could he be a wonder horse – yes he could. Do we have any evidence to suggest he gets a tick in the most important box (no we don’t – I appreciate how good his time was the other day, but then we saw the time of a laboring long run which put it bang into perspective again). Do we have any evidence that SS does not tick this box – IMO yes we do i.e. last years supreme where I would be amazed if betfair did not have him shortest in running with 2 furlongs to go and he simply got out stamina’d and out fought.
Now lets take Cue Card – I have some sympathy with the view he may be the value in the race – I don’t actually disagree . However he does not tick this box. All things being equal, i.e. both CC and AF turn up in similar shape and jump with similar alacrity then there is only one possible winner because of the last 2 furlong factor.
PC is easy – he ticks every box, no doubt about it, but he is to short to back simply because the possibility exists that SS could be a wonder horse.
And no Sint,it aint from me.
There are so many punters out there that are not able to process both the fact based and intuitive elements that need to factored in to make effective and well rounded gambling choices at Cheltenham that open up the opportunity for the rest of us.
The races that most require punters to read between the lines as well as take a literal interpretation of the facts are the novice races and the bumper. Because I recognize the opportunity for value is greatest in these races, I have always focused more of my time and attention on these. Had it not been for my return on these races then my festivals would be financially unsuccessful.
The most important ingredient of all for winning novice races at Cheltenham is the one ingredient that punters have to be intuitive about. In other words they will not find the answer in time figures or literal interpretation of facts. They will not find the answer in collateral form. The ingredient is one you are very aware of and ironically most punters are. The mistake that is made is that punters underweight this ingredient in their selection process.
The ingredient of course is the ability to show the necessary stamina and heart to ‘put it down’ when it most matters i.e. the final 2 furlongs in a race run significantly faster than anything they have ever experienced before. For a horse to not tick this box and still win one of these races I believe it would have to be in a different parish class wise. While this is not impossible I am prepared to take a financial loss when this happens as I haven’t seen it happen yet despite there being many rumours suggesting ;this is the year’
So lets take Sprinter Sacre. Could he be a wonder horse – yes he could. Do we have any evidence to suggest he gets a tick in the most important box (no we don’t – I appreciate how good his time was the other day, but then we saw the time of a laboring long run which put it bang into perspective again). Do we have any evidence that SS does not tick this box – IMO yes we do i.e. last years supreme where I would be amazed if betfair did not have him shortest in running with 2 furlongs to go and he simply got out stamina’d and out fought.
Now lets take Cue Card – I have some sympathy with the view he may be the value in the race – I don’t actually disagree . However he does not tick this box. All things being equal, i.e. both CC and AF turn up in similar shape and jump with similar alacrity then there is only one possible winner because of the last 2 furlong factor.
PC is easy – he ticks every box, no doubt about it, but he is to short to back simply because the possibility exists that SS could be a wonder horse.
And no Sint,it aint from me.
he is surely the value, nearly didnt make his debut at chelts as trainer said he wasnt fit enough, yet won on the bridal against horses with previous runs/wins over arkle c&d, then out stayed a stayer up the hill at sandown gd 1 (runner up won grade 1 since)then used a gd 1 against older experienced rivals as a prep for the arkle, could there be better form??????
Intrigued as to where you got that from budd. A lot of truth in it. Historically, I would say it is very accurate for me, Arkle, RSA, Supreme, Neptune all been excellent for me. Cathcart used to be good too so expect I will do ok over time in the new Jewson and in the Albert. Not so good in the Triumph or the NH Chase and don't have any interest in the bumper. CGC is an exception, done very well there. Stayers Hurdle, and Ryanair to date, have also been profitable. CH not so good until recent years. Champion Chase appalling for me. Not done well at all in the handicaps, the JLT/Spinal Research/WH/Ritz Club race and the Grand Annual by far the best for me.
Hi thieves,
I asked a chap i have a lot of respect for on his opinion on the value in the Arkle and what he thought of the main players.
No pro punter or expert pundit,but a guy thats been playing Cheltenham for a good few years.
I asked a chap i have a lot of respect for on his opinion on the value in the Arkle and what he thought of the main players.
No pro punter or expert pundit,but a guy thats been playing Cheltenham for a good few years.
Sounds like a real shrewdie budd. Certainly a timely reminder for me as to where to concentrate the higher stakes and where just to have "an interest"
Yeh,the PP offer is a good un,just done Cue Card and Menorah with them.
If SS is Pegasus i get my money back,if he aint i have AF at 14,good position i feel.
Also done my cover Acca which has SSacre,so hopefully the race works out for me!!
Shame about PCross,takes something away from the race for sure,but its still a good race.
If SS is Pegasus i get my money back,if he aint i have AF at 14,good position i feel.
Also done my cover Acca which has SSacre,so hopefully the race works out for me!!
Shame about PCross,takes something away from the race for sure,but its still a good race.
Obviously disappointing for the race, but good news for us who have lumped on AF. Each way in my case. Just can't him out of the top three now.
I think I'd rather back AF to place than SS to win. Not too much difference between the prices.
Just said the exact same thing gcw.... You'd have to be the biggest SS fan ever to think otherwise IMO.
fair points,i do think AF is more likely to place than SS is to win,although i guess i would do, as i think AF is more likely to win than SS is!!
Al Ferof, proven up the hill last year. Form against Somersby and Finians. Looks to stay further.
I think especially with Peddlers withdrawal he is overpriced, especially with bells on with the Paddy Power offer.
That said...Sprinter could be an absolute beast....but they are closer than the odds in my head anyway!
I think especially with Peddlers withdrawal he is overpriced, especially with bells on with the Paddy Power offer.
That said...Sprinter could be an absolute beast....but they are closer than the odds in my head anyway!
completley different view here. Whilst AF looks more certain to place now PC is absent, I still think there is a possibility he will finish unplaced, provided every horse stands up and there are no fallers. The likes of CC and Menorah have decent engines and are running over there correct trip.
Always a possibilty of course,but i feel its fair to say his jumping is superior to that of CC and Menorah,and that along with his strenght in the finish should get him finishing in front of those 2 i reckon.
Not a given though,and why should it be,this is Cheltenham after all.
Not a given though,and why should it be,this is Cheltenham after all.
Agree BSM is another that can figure particularly as you say if the ground suits,hes a nice price as well.
20 nrnb last night.
20 nrnb last night.
I'm on Al Ferof, Tizzard said he's going to make it a true test, SS might just be the real deal but until I see him come up the hill I wont be backing him at skinny odds.
dont forget to lay him at very short odds tho!
buses theres a difference isn't there, I'm not knocking him in the slightest, he could win 20 lengths, but as someone who'll be there on the day I'm happy to back the horse that beat him last year.
re Al Ferof, anyone else think there could be a parallel in last year's Arkle - Captain Chris under pressure from the top of the hill but kept in touch then all change up to and after the last as stamina became the key. Certainly hope so as just taken Messrs Powers up on their kind offer. As long as Alf is still on his feet I reckon his backers will get a great run for their money from two out.
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