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Ok given the game spirit will be contested by two novices I'll give my Champ Chase preview now and do a revised piece closer to the festival.
The Champion Chase
Sizing Europe - Very strong fav now having beaten Zeb in this last year and demolishing that rival recently in the Tied Cottage. Deserved short priced fav whith the extra confidence in that he can be relied on making the running himself if the early race pace is too slow. On every bit of form we have he is the winner, on a line through Somersby he has all the Victor Chandler field well beaten, while the form of the Tied Cottage has him clear of the Irish. His record over 2m is excellent, forgiving last years Tied Cottage where he had missed the King George and not raced since 2nd to Kauto in early Nov over 3m. Very strong fav and it's no surprise he is trading around evens fav now. But I just don't feel he is a certainty, he's beaten nothing to win the Tingle Creek and imv had conditions in his favour in the Tied Cottage. While short priced favs are most dangerous in this race, 2m chases, look at Moscow, Azertioup, Kauto Star and Well Chief, 4 years in a row that was and all had their races ended by a fence and all were exceptional horses. I can't go steaming in here.
Big Zeb - Excellent and consistent pure 2m Chaser. His record shows how consistent he is, only once outside the first 2 when completing since 2008, the 09 Tingle Creek. He's an 11yo now and I've had my inklings that age might catch up with him this season. But with 3 wins in a row last year (one over Sizing Europe) he seemed to be as good as ever going into the Tied Cottage where he was soundly thumped by Sizing Europe. If we read the form lines literally the proximity of Forpady to him on his last two runs last year and how far that horse was beaten in the Victor Chandler Zeb would be behind Finians Rainbow and Somersby in March. But I am of the opinion there is still hope for Zeb.
He is a good ground horse, he is thought of an all ground horse because of his victories on soft in Ireland. He wins those because the gap in class to his rivals is so big. Sizing Europe has run well over 3m on soft twice, so the tactics of making the running in the tied cottage were sound. Zeb couldn't go that fast on that ground and Sizing won well. It's a myth that Sizing Europe doesn't like soft ground, he has won on it many times. So where does that leave Zeb come March, it's hard to know. He could be past it, look at Master Minded, a horse who fooled everyone last season into thinking he was a top 2miler based on wins over poor opposition. Zeb could be the same, two wins over poor opposition keeping the belief he was still as good as ever alive. He may well suffer the same fate as Master Minded.
But it could be just that the conditions in the Tied Cottage were against him (he was never going from the start) and a return to better ground will see a better performance. If so, the distance he beat Somersby last year would have him clear 2nd fav for this and still represents a solid ew option (especiall at the 7/1 available). His odds to simply place are the same as Sizing Europe is to win. One thing I've noted was that both times he has been well beaten have been from front running tactics right handed on soft ground (09 Tingle Creek and recent Tied Cottage) while he was also beaten in last years Tied Cottage. I strongly believe Zeb is a very solid place option in this field but is more than likely not good enough to beat Sizing Europe at his best. The 11/4 w/o sizing is rather interesting given the likely small field and poor quality field.
Finians Rainbow - 2nd last year in the Arkle and was a decent winner of the Desert Orchid at Kempton having made a bad mistake at the 4th last, was 2nd to Somersby over 2m1f at Asot lto whih was another ok performance, the feeling I am getting is last years novice chasers were an average bunh, aptain hris, wishfull thinking, Noble Prine all winless, Medermit a handiapper, Loosen My Load too, Realt Dubh off trak while I won't even mention the RSA field, I think we an say the novies are an verage bunh at best
So what does that mean for Finians? His win at Kempton was over a 2nd season chaser in Wishfull (who's only decent run has been that race) and a total handiapper in 3rd, then nto he was beaten by Somersby a horse who run to the same mark as last year in the race and who was beaten out of sight by Sizing and Big Zeb in the Champ Chase. Finians is entitled to improve from those runs and will probably get a nice early pace in the Champion Chase which will suit. But I can't get away from the fact he'd be a very poor winner of the race should he win. How Al Ferof runs in the Arkle would also be a pointer and he'd want to be going very close if Finians wants to be Chamoion Chaser. But is not appealing at current odds and waiting till post Arkle is best if you want to back him imv.
Somersby simply can't turn up if it's good going, 2m on good ground with that much pace is too much for him. 2m1f with some cut around Ascot is a different race entirely. He'll end up in the Ryanair.
Wishfull Thinking will probably go for this unless they're tempted by a handicap as Captain Chris will not be Gold Cup bound. But he's been outclassed too many times to be a real threat. Place hopes at best given the small and weak field.
Forpady and Guavain will probably be Ryanair bound as they aren't up to it over 2m in this company.
The Champion Chase
Sizing Europe - Very strong fav now having beaten Zeb in this last year and demolishing that rival recently in the Tied Cottage. Deserved short priced fav whith the extra confidence in that he can be relied on making the running himself if the early race pace is too slow. On every bit of form we have he is the winner, on a line through Somersby he has all the Victor Chandler field well beaten, while the form of the Tied Cottage has him clear of the Irish. His record over 2m is excellent, forgiving last years Tied Cottage where he had missed the King George and not raced since 2nd to Kauto in early Nov over 3m. Very strong fav and it's no surprise he is trading around evens fav now. But I just don't feel he is a certainty, he's beaten nothing to win the Tingle Creek and imv had conditions in his favour in the Tied Cottage. While short priced favs are most dangerous in this race, 2m chases, look at Moscow, Azertioup, Kauto Star and Well Chief, 4 years in a row that was and all had their races ended by a fence and all were exceptional horses. I can't go steaming in here.
Big Zeb - Excellent and consistent pure 2m Chaser. His record shows how consistent he is, only once outside the first 2 when completing since 2008, the 09 Tingle Creek. He's an 11yo now and I've had my inklings that age might catch up with him this season. But with 3 wins in a row last year (one over Sizing Europe) he seemed to be as good as ever going into the Tied Cottage where he was soundly thumped by Sizing Europe. If we read the form lines literally the proximity of Forpady to him on his last two runs last year and how far that horse was beaten in the Victor Chandler Zeb would be behind Finians Rainbow and Somersby in March. But I am of the opinion there is still hope for Zeb.
He is a good ground horse, he is thought of an all ground horse because of his victories on soft in Ireland. He wins those because the gap in class to his rivals is so big. Sizing Europe has run well over 3m on soft twice, so the tactics of making the running in the tied cottage were sound. Zeb couldn't go that fast on that ground and Sizing won well. It's a myth that Sizing Europe doesn't like soft ground, he has won on it many times. So where does that leave Zeb come March, it's hard to know. He could be past it, look at Master Minded, a horse who fooled everyone last season into thinking he was a top 2miler based on wins over poor opposition. Zeb could be the same, two wins over poor opposition keeping the belief he was still as good as ever alive. He may well suffer the same fate as Master Minded.
But it could be just that the conditions in the Tied Cottage were against him (he was never going from the start) and a return to better ground will see a better performance. If so, the distance he beat Somersby last year would have him clear 2nd fav for this and still represents a solid ew option (especiall at the 7/1 available). His odds to simply place are the same as Sizing Europe is to win. One thing I've noted was that both times he has been well beaten have been from front running tactics right handed on soft ground (09 Tingle Creek and recent Tied Cottage) while he was also beaten in last years Tied Cottage. I strongly believe Zeb is a very solid place option in this field but is more than likely not good enough to beat Sizing Europe at his best. The 11/4 w/o sizing is rather interesting given the likely small field and poor quality field.
Finians Rainbow - 2nd last year in the Arkle and was a decent winner of the Desert Orchid at Kempton having made a bad mistake at the 4th last, was 2nd to Somersby over 2m1f at Asot lto whih was another ok performance, the feeling I am getting is last years novice chasers were an average bunh, aptain hris, wishfull thinking, Noble Prine all winless, Medermit a handiapper, Loosen My Load too, Realt Dubh off trak while I won't even mention the RSA field, I think we an say the novies are an verage bunh at best
So what does that mean for Finians? His win at Kempton was over a 2nd season chaser in Wishfull (who's only decent run has been that race) and a total handiapper in 3rd, then nto he was beaten by Somersby a horse who run to the same mark as last year in the race and who was beaten out of sight by Sizing and Big Zeb in the Champ Chase. Finians is entitled to improve from those runs and will probably get a nice early pace in the Champion Chase which will suit. But I can't get away from the fact he'd be a very poor winner of the race should he win. How Al Ferof runs in the Arkle would also be a pointer and he'd want to be going very close if Finians wants to be Chamoion Chaser. But is not appealing at current odds and waiting till post Arkle is best if you want to back him imv.
Somersby simply can't turn up if it's good going, 2m on good ground with that much pace is too much for him. 2m1f with some cut around Ascot is a different race entirely. He'll end up in the Ryanair.
Wishfull Thinking will probably go for this unless they're tempted by a handicap as Captain Chris will not be Gold Cup bound. But he's been outclassed too many times to be a real threat. Place hopes at best given the small and weak field.
Forpady and Guavain will probably be Ryanair bound as they aren't up to it over 2m in this company.
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I agree that conditions probably suited SE better than BZ in the Tied Cottage, and at the age of 11 it would be reasonable to suspect Zeb has regressed. I'm really struggling with this race. Sizing looks a worthy short priced favourite, but I don't think I'll be backing him given his record of chucking in a bad run from time to time (and the fact that he isn't getting any younger). However, what is there to challenge him? Last years novices look about the worst bunch I can remember recently (excluding Tidal Bay's Arkle). We seem to have quite a good set of middle distance horses, with what is looking like about the hottest Ryanair since its inception (Rubi Light would have beat SE, Somersby beat Finians), but its taken away from this race, which is looking very weak.
Yeah I'm struggling to see anything worth a big bet here. It's not a very good gambling race now.
Good write up CV.
Agree with pretty much most of that. If you've missed the price on Sizing then I wouldn't be going it around evens.
Its basically a race containing a lot of exposed horses (with the exception of Finians and if Kauto Stone runs). I said on a different thread that the alarm bells were ringing for me when Noble Prince and Forpady let the form down for Big Zeb.
Disappointed Flat Out won't be running - would have gone really close in last year's Arkle.
I'm more looking forward to next year's than this years. This division needs some new blood.
Agree with pretty much most of that. If you've missed the price on Sizing then I wouldn't be going it around evens.
Its basically a race containing a lot of exposed horses (with the exception of Finians and if Kauto Stone runs). I said on a different thread that the alarm bells were ringing for me when Noble Prince and Forpady let the form down for Big Zeb.
Disappointed Flat Out won't be running - would have gone really close in last year's Arkle.
I'm more looking forward to next year's than this years. This division needs some new blood.
CV - Remember well your backing of the Fly last year, I agreed with all you said and got a nice family holiday out of it ! Wonder if it will be Dundee or Disneyland this year ?
Poor renewal this year; Sizing or Finnians look to be the only winners
Hope so Bluebird on Sizing nr no bet 5/2 & Finians at 9s not nr no bet.
Really interesting post CV.
Sizing Europe looks a worthy favourite but he's no all time great 2m chaser and it wouldn't take a monster
performance to beat him( unlike Big bucks and Hurr Fly where it would take a monster performance to beat them). The opposition looks reatively thin on the ground , but come the better weather in spring something
could come through a show improved form.
If I had to estimate what Sizing Europes true price is at this stage I'd say 2/1 ;if he goes odds on I'd have to oppose him, leaving plenty of margin for error.
Sizing Europe looks a worthy favourite but he's no all time great 2m chaser and it wouldn't take a monster
performance to beat him( unlike Big bucks and Hurr Fly where it would take a monster performance to beat them). The opposition looks reatively thin on the ground , but come the better weather in spring something
could come through a show improved form.
If I had to estimate what Sizing Europes true price is at this stage I'd say 2/1 ;if he goes odds on I'd have to oppose him, leaving plenty of margin for error.
personally think you underestimate SE.
looked as good a QM winner that ive seen last season,and looks no worse this.
looked as good a QM winner that ive seen last season,and looks no worse this.
I basically agree Budd. If he hadn't broken down in the Champion Hurlde and had gone on to win the race people would be talking about him as an all time great.
I've 5 bet in this, was a play made based on the belief there would be a small field and all horses would trade shorter leaving a trade on them all near the day
Sizing, Zeb, Finians, Wishfull, Forpady all bet on
Also have Zeb ew and Sizing 10/1 Tingle hamp double
No huge play at all and not going to, would rather be using funds on Fly and Big B
Will be green if any of my 5 win so am very happy with that atm
Though agree Sizings rep is a little underrated due to his injury problems when a 2m hurdler and his runs at 3m, he's top quality, but so were the 4 I mentioned in my post
Sizing, Zeb, Finians, Wishfull, Forpady all bet on
Also have Zeb ew and Sizing 10/1 Tingle hamp double
No huge play at all and not going to, would rather be using funds on Fly and Big B
Will be green if any of my 5 win so am very happy with that atm
Though agree Sizings rep is a little underrated due to his injury problems when a 2m hurdler and his runs at 3m, he's top quality, but so were the 4 I mentioned in my post
I've 5 bet in this, was a play made based on the belief there would be a small field and all horses would trade shorter leaving a trade on them all near the day
Sizing, Zeb, Finians, Wishfull, Forpady all bet on
Also have Zeb ew and Sizing 10/1 Tingle hamp double
No huge play at all and not going to, would rather be using funds on Fly and Big B
Will be green if any of my 5 win so am very happy with that atm
Though agree Sizings rep is a little underrated due to his injury problems when a 2m hurdler and his runs at 3m, he's top quality, but so were the 4 I mentioned in my post
Sizing, Zeb, Finians, Wishfull, Forpady all bet on
Also have Zeb ew and Sizing 10/1 Tingle hamp double
No huge play at all and not going to, would rather be using funds on Fly and Big B
Will be green if any of my 5 win so am very happy with that atm
Though agree Sizings rep is a little underrated due to his injury problems when a 2m hurdler and his runs at 3m, he's top quality, but so were the 4 I mentioned in my post
CV aren't you already on FPDP for this race ? Will he be running in March ?
I'd imagine pady will go for the Ryanair having been beaten by Zeb twice, and Finians once and he's clearly behind Sizing Europe.
But I'm hoping that the small field and lack of strength in depth compared to Ryanair might swing then to this race.
But I'm hoping that the small field and lack of strength in depth compared to Ryanair might swing then to this race.
Philip Hopps is happy to run Wishfull Thinking in the sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham next month.
A winner at Aintree and Punchestown last spring, he looked to be back on track when chasing home Finian's Rainbow at Kempton over Christmas but could finish only sixth in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot last time.
"Realistically three of his four runs this season have been disastrous and the run at Kempton when he was second was very good indeed. He's more confusing than Captain Chris," the trainer told At The Races.
"The only thing we can put it down to is his breathing. We've done what we can with that so I think he's going to go straight for the Champion Chase due to lack of options.
"Like Captain Chris the trip he needs is debatable. He ran well over two miles at Kempton so I think we'll stick to that trip."
A winner at Aintree and Punchestown last spring, he looked to be back on track when chasing home Finian's Rainbow at Kempton over Christmas but could finish only sixth in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot last time.
"Realistically three of his four runs this season have been disastrous and the run at Kempton when he was second was very good indeed. He's more confusing than Captain Chris," the trainer told At The Races.
"The only thing we can put it down to is his breathing. We've done what we can with that so I think he's going to go straight for the Champion Chase due to lack of options.
"Like Captain Chris the trip he needs is debatable. He ran well over two miles at Kempton so I think we'll stick to that trip."
THE sportingbet.com QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
Class 1, Grade 1, 2m, £320,000 Total Prize Fund. 3.20pm, Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 14, 2012.
Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
122-1112 BIG ZEB (IRE) 11 Pat Redmond Colm Murphy IRE
2143111 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 8 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
11121-12 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 9 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
520-1F1F GAUVAIN (GER) 10 Jared Sullivan & Simon Brown Nick Williams
1/41U-41 HOLD FAST (IRE) 8 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls
21/460-05 I'M SO LUCKY 10 Sheila Brookhouse David Pipe
5331442 I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (IRE) 10 Jo Tracey David Pipe
1103-12 KAUTO STONE (FR) 6 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls
31-4435 NACARAT (FR) 11 Simon Clarke Tom George
120-112 PEDDLERS CROSS (IRE) 7 Tim Leslie Donald McCain
2113-12 REALT DUBH (IRE) 8 Derek Sharkey Noel Meade IRE
31-21211 SIZING EUROPE (IRE) 10 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE
53-12241 SOMERSBY (IRE) 8 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight
21-16526 WISHFULL THINKING 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
14 entries remain after February 14 scratchings deadline
4 Irish-trained
THE FOLLOWING 5 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: AL FEROF (FR), DAN BREEN (IRE), FORPADYDEPLASTERER (IRE), GHIZAO (GER), OISEAU DE NUIT (FR)
Class 1, Grade 1, 2m, £320,000 Total Prize Fund. 3.20pm, Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 14, 2012.
Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
122-1112 BIG ZEB (IRE) 11 Pat Redmond Colm Murphy IRE
2143111 BLAZING TEMPO (IRE) 8 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
11121-12 FINIAN'S RAINBOW (IRE) 9 Michael Buckley Nicky Henderson
520-1F1F GAUVAIN (GER) 10 Jared Sullivan & Simon Brown Nick Williams
1/41U-41 HOLD FAST (IRE) 8 Andrea & Graham Wylie Paul Nicholls
21/460-05 I'M SO LUCKY 10 Sheila Brookhouse David Pipe
5331442 I'MSINGINGTHEBLUES (IRE) 10 Jo Tracey David Pipe
1103-12 KAUTO STONE (FR) 6 Robin Geffen Paul Nicholls
31-4435 NACARAT (FR) 11 Simon Clarke Tom George
120-112 PEDDLERS CROSS (IRE) 7 Tim Leslie Donald McCain
2113-12 REALT DUBH (IRE) 8 Derek Sharkey Noel Meade IRE
31-21211 SIZING EUROPE (IRE) 10 Ann & Alan Potts Partnership Henry de Bromhead IRE
53-12241 SOMERSBY (IRE) 8 Camilla Radford Henrietta Knight
21-16526 WISHFULL THINKING 9 Diana Whateley Philip Hobbs
14 entries remain after February 14 scratchings deadline
4 Irish-trained
THE FOLLOWING 5 ENTRIES HAVE BEEN SCRATCHED: AL FEROF (FR), DAN BREEN (IRE), FORPADYDEPLASTERER (IRE), GHIZAO (GER), OISEAU DE NUIT (FR)
I've probably wasted my money, but just had a few quid win 36 and place 16 on here on Peddlars Cross. I believe SE is bombproof against the established 2 milers, but who knows re PC. After another awsome performance today from Sprinter Sacre, connections may decide that this easier? I think it probably is IMO as appears less depth.
10/1 NRNB EW B365 & Ladbrokes for Peddlers Cross. You know it makes sense.
An old stat but a good one.
Record of the returning Arkle winner at the Festival is very strong.
Looking at the last 20 Cheltenham Festivals, here's where the returning Arkle winner ran & finished:
2009 - Forpadydeplasterer: 2nd in 2010 Queen Mother
2008 - Tidal Bay 4th in 2009 Ryanair (runs a strange race, fast finishing)
2007 - My Way de Solzen: 5th 2008 World Hurdle
2006 - Voy Por Ustedes Won - 2007 Queen Mother
2005 - Contraband: Did not run
2004 - Well Chief: 2nd in 2005 Queen Mother
2003 - Azertyuiop: Won 2004 Queen Mother
2002 - Moscow Flyer: Won 2003 Queen Mother
2000 - Tiutchev: No Festival (Foot & Mouth)
1999 - Flagship Uberalles: 3rd in 2000 Queen Mother
1998 - Champleve: Did not run
1997 - Or Royal: 2nd in 1998 Queen Mother
1996 - Ventana Canyon: Did not run
1995 - Klairon Davis: Won 1996 Queen Mother
1994 - Nakir: 3rd 1995 Queen Mother
1993 - Travado: 2nd 1994 Queen Mother
1992 - Young Pokey: 4th 1993 Grand Annual
1991 - Remittance Man:Won 1992 Queen Mother
1990 - Comandante: Did not Run
1989 - Waterloo Boy: 2nd in 1990 Queen Mother
Of the 20:
5 won a race the Queen Mothers at next yea'rs Festival
7 others were placed in the Queen Mother
3 others just missed out on the places, 4th in the Grand Annual, 4th in Ryanair and 5th in World Hurdle.
In the last 20 years, 12 Arkle winners ran in the Queen Mother and every single one made the places.
Record of the returning Arkle winner at the Festival is very strong.
Looking at the last 20 Cheltenham Festivals, here's where the returning Arkle winner ran & finished:
2009 - Forpadydeplasterer: 2nd in 2010 Queen Mother
2008 - Tidal Bay 4th in 2009 Ryanair (runs a strange race, fast finishing)
2007 - My Way de Solzen: 5th 2008 World Hurdle
2006 - Voy Por Ustedes Won - 2007 Queen Mother
2005 - Contraband: Did not run
2004 - Well Chief: 2nd in 2005 Queen Mother
2003 - Azertyuiop: Won 2004 Queen Mother
2002 - Moscow Flyer: Won 2003 Queen Mother
2000 - Tiutchev: No Festival (Foot & Mouth)
1999 - Flagship Uberalles: 3rd in 2000 Queen Mother
1998 - Champleve: Did not run
1997 - Or Royal: 2nd in 1998 Queen Mother
1996 - Ventana Canyon: Did not run
1995 - Klairon Davis: Won 1996 Queen Mother
1994 - Nakir: 3rd 1995 Queen Mother
1993 - Travado: 2nd 1994 Queen Mother
1992 - Young Pokey: 4th 1993 Grand Annual
1991 - Remittance Man:Won 1992 Queen Mother
1990 - Comandante: Did not Run
1989 - Waterloo Boy: 2nd in 1990 Queen Mother
Of the 20:
5 won a race the Queen Mothers at next yea'rs Festival
7 others were placed in the Queen Mother
3 others just missed out on the places, 4th in the Grand Annual, 4th in Ryanair and 5th in World Hurdle.
In the last 20 years, 12 Arkle winners ran in the Queen Mother and every single one made the places.
Arkle winners have an amazing record in the race, but Captain Chris isn't entered and Wishfull Thinking is running instead.
I have nailed my colours to the mast for some time as a massive Finian's fan, and I am very confident that he will at least outrun his price and put up a serious challenge to Sizing Europe.
I could be completely wrong, of course (
), but I have always been impressed by Finian's' ability, and have for a long time thought he is capable of running to a mark in the mid 170s. Granted, this is not easy to argue on the bare form, but I do have a slightly convoluted pathway to that figure. Here goes:
Firstly, I thought he was the best horse in last year's Arkle and would have won with a more positive ride. I am of the opinion that he stays just fine (backed up by Henderson and Geraghty's consideration of stepping up in trip), but he looks a short runner because he only has the one pace and is, regrettably, not much of a battler. What he has in his favour is a seriously impressive cruising speed and a superb fencing style.
I think the way to ride him to win the Queen Mother is to be much more aggressive than might seem intuitive based on his finishing efforts of late, and hope that he can jump and gallop at a pace that has them at it in behind making mistakes. It should be a small field so the possibility is there, and while many will be thinking there is no chance he can get Sizing off the bit, I just wonder if we have crowned him a little too soon.
I totally appreciate what people are saying about him being under-rated and that it is a monstrous effort for a horse to have won an Arkle and a Queen Mother (and to have had a chance of winning a Champion Hurdle too). But, in just the same way that people have crabbed Best Mate, I don't think he has ever been a real superstar. Am sounding like I am crabbing him, and really not meaning to, as he is a super horse, but I really don't believe many people would fancy him to have beaten the likes of Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiop in this race.
Another minor doubt I have about him is that his price is based on beating the same old tried and tested (but again unspectacular) opposition since last year's Festival highlight, and as an aging horse, there is every reason to suspect he might not be as fast as he used to be. Of course he could be, but nothing we have seen can really confirm that. Kauto Stone clearly ran massively below-par yesterday but we still don't really know what he is worth, which makes you at least question whether he did anything we didn't already know him to be capable of in the Tingle Creek, and when you pick apart the bones of last year's QM it is possible to at least rate the race as fair to middling (and not any higher) for all that he was a very good winner.
Now in terms of getting Finian's to that magic 173-174 mark that I think he needs to hit to win the race, I feel he has only ever had one real race over fences and outside of novice company, and that was at Ascot last time where he ran a career best. There must be a possibility that he can find 5-6lb on that (maybe more) and I think Cheltenham would be more his track as he can use his high cruising speed coming down the hill and then kick around the bend before facing the hill, whereas at Ascot he was effectively coasting on his one finishing pace from a long way out and providing a target for Somersby.
Somersby is a genuine 166-167 horse at his very best and he loves Ascot, so I am perfectly satisfied that Finian's ran to 165-166ish the last day. We must not forget that Master Minded was twice almost beaten by Somersby at the track and he was a genuine 171-173 horse under conditions that suited him (Cheltenham's two miles patently didn't as he grew older but he was dynamite at Ascot). So, I guess you have to ask what the prices would have been if Master Minded had met Sizing Europe over 2m at Ascot this term with both in good nick. In my opinion they would have been very close, and I think the race would have been a close one too.
All these points combine to make me think Finian's has a real chance of pushing Sizing Europe hard, and it would not surprise me at all to see him prove himself good enough to win. He has always looked like he could be Grade One class and he is being trained to improve to a best ever figure in March. Henderson horses running a bit better than they were a month ago too.
Suppose another way of looking at it is that Big Zeb aside, who has a lot to prove anyway after that last no-show, there is nothing in the race to worry about apart from the favourite. If something happened to Sizing, or if he simply ran a few pounds below his best, that sees Finian's home in front, which must make 6-1 too big.
Come on the Rainbow!
I could be completely wrong, of course (
), but I have always been impressed by Finian's' ability, and have for a long time thought he is capable of running to a mark in the mid 170s. Granted, this is not easy to argue on the bare form, but I do have a slightly convoluted pathway to that figure. Here goes:Firstly, I thought he was the best horse in last year's Arkle and would have won with a more positive ride. I am of the opinion that he stays just fine (backed up by Henderson and Geraghty's consideration of stepping up in trip), but he looks a short runner because he only has the one pace and is, regrettably, not much of a battler. What he has in his favour is a seriously impressive cruising speed and a superb fencing style.
I think the way to ride him to win the Queen Mother is to be much more aggressive than might seem intuitive based on his finishing efforts of late, and hope that he can jump and gallop at a pace that has them at it in behind making mistakes. It should be a small field so the possibility is there, and while many will be thinking there is no chance he can get Sizing off the bit, I just wonder if we have crowned him a little too soon.
I totally appreciate what people are saying about him being under-rated and that it is a monstrous effort for a horse to have won an Arkle and a Queen Mother (and to have had a chance of winning a Champion Hurdle too). But, in just the same way that people have crabbed Best Mate, I don't think he has ever been a real superstar. Am sounding like I am crabbing him, and really not meaning to, as he is a super horse, but I really don't believe many people would fancy him to have beaten the likes of Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiop in this race.
Another minor doubt I have about him is that his price is based on beating the same old tried and tested (but again unspectacular) opposition since last year's Festival highlight, and as an aging horse, there is every reason to suspect he might not be as fast as he used to be. Of course he could be, but nothing we have seen can really confirm that. Kauto Stone clearly ran massively below-par yesterday but we still don't really know what he is worth, which makes you at least question whether he did anything we didn't already know him to be capable of in the Tingle Creek, and when you pick apart the bones of last year's QM it is possible to at least rate the race as fair to middling (and not any higher) for all that he was a very good winner.
Now in terms of getting Finian's to that magic 173-174 mark that I think he needs to hit to win the race, I feel he has only ever had one real race over fences and outside of novice company, and that was at Ascot last time where he ran a career best. There must be a possibility that he can find 5-6lb on that (maybe more) and I think Cheltenham would be more his track as he can use his high cruising speed coming down the hill and then kick around the bend before facing the hill, whereas at Ascot he was effectively coasting on his one finishing pace from a long way out and providing a target for Somersby.
Somersby is a genuine 166-167 horse at his very best and he loves Ascot, so I am perfectly satisfied that Finian's ran to 165-166ish the last day. We must not forget that Master Minded was twice almost beaten by Somersby at the track and he was a genuine 171-173 horse under conditions that suited him (Cheltenham's two miles patently didn't as he grew older but he was dynamite at Ascot). So, I guess you have to ask what the prices would have been if Master Minded had met Sizing Europe over 2m at Ascot this term with both in good nick. In my opinion they would have been very close, and I think the race would have been a close one too.
All these points combine to make me think Finian's has a real chance of pushing Sizing Europe hard, and it would not surprise me at all to see him prove himself good enough to win. He has always looked like he could be Grade One class and he is being trained to improve to a best ever figure in March. Henderson horses running a bit better than they were a month ago too.
Suppose another way of looking at it is that Big Zeb aside, who has a lot to prove anyway after that last no-show, there is nothing in the race to worry about apart from the favourite. If something happened to Sizing, or if he simply ran a few pounds below his best, that sees Finian's home in front, which must make 6-1 too big.
Come on the Rainbow!
I just think his running style is just gonna set it up perfetly for Sizing, tough to bet big now, all the odds look right
I just think his running style is just gonna set it up perfetly for Sizing, tough to bet big now, all the odds look right
The race has no depth to it whatsoever and that gives Finians his best chance. He does not strike me as a champion chaser though, and I'd say he wants at least another half mile. The fact he held a Gold Cup entry says it all imo. As for last year's Arkle, name a decent 2 miler that he beat?? Captain Chris won largely by default, but the other prominent horses were Medermit and Realt Dubh and neither of those are 2 milers either.
Not saying he can't win (clearly there is very little in the race), but he's a big horse that looks like he lacks speed and wants a trip to me.
Not saying he can't win (clearly there is very little in the race), but he's a big horse that looks like he lacks speed and wants a trip to me.
Interesting write up CV, this race looked likely to cut really badly. I can't see Somersby being entered, wishful thinking has been very poor compared to last season and beyond the top 4/5 in the betting the rest are either not going to run, running in the Arkle or injured. I can definitely see this race having the smallest field of all the major races, my view would be max of 8/9 runners and Sizing Europe going off a shade of odds on.
I think his price might more significantly impacted by accumulators running on if the Fly and / or Quevega wins on the Tuesday.
It's a shame Sprinter Sacre is unlikely to run as he would have a real chance, I was at Newbury on Friday and it was astonishing.
Anyway back to likely runners and the champion chase has a good history of repeat winners, Sizing Europe has run well at Cheltenham and looking at the likely runners you could make a case for him to be shorter. I really don't think the prices have caught up yet to how limited the field is. He has the 2 best mile 2m performances of the season by quite a distance of the certain runners.
I think his price might more significantly impacted by accumulators running on if the Fly and / or Quevega wins on the Tuesday.
It's a shame Sprinter Sacre is unlikely to run as he would have a real chance, I was at Newbury on Friday and it was astonishing.
Anyway back to likely runners and the champion chase has a good history of repeat winners, Sizing Europe has run well at Cheltenham and looking at the likely runners you could make a case for him to be shorter. I really don't think the prices have caught up yet to how limited the field is. He has the 2 best mile 2m performances of the season by quite a distance of the certain runners.
Sizing Europe (11/10) , Finians Rainbow (11/2) , Big Zeb (13/2) , Somersby (12) , Peddlers Cross (20) , Wishfull Thinking (20) , Realt Dubh (25) , Blazing Tempo (33) , Kauto Stone (33) , Gauvain (40) , Hold Fast (66) , Im So Lucky (66) , Imsingingtheblues (80) , Nacarat (80) - Others 0 or more
Good write up Tom, you definitely make a good point re Finians getting placed.
I think that he was the best 2 mile chaser last season and he does have a bit of class about him. I remember Geraghty saying last year (even before he jumped a fence in public) how he devours fences and thinks he has a bit of class.
The evidence suggests that he might not be the best battler, but the way he flew home in his first race this season showed a horse with the will to win imo. Fair do's, the form hasn't stood up to much, but you had to be impressed with how he finished his race.
At the moment he is an ew bet to nothing imo. Whether he is good enough to win is one thing, but you know he'll still be travelling well two out. I think the money will come massively for Sizing as we get nearer and nearer, so I can see Finians maybe being a point or two bigger on the day or in the build up.
Also, you'll be able to see how Al Ferof runs in the Arkle on day one, which could be a good pointer for Finians. Al Ferof could easily put up a massive performance in the Arkle, which will then make the Ascot form look really good.
I think that he was the best 2 mile chaser last season and he does have a bit of class about him. I remember Geraghty saying last year (even before he jumped a fence in public) how he devours fences and thinks he has a bit of class.
The evidence suggests that he might not be the best battler, but the way he flew home in his first race this season showed a horse with the will to win imo. Fair do's, the form hasn't stood up to much, but you had to be impressed with how he finished his race.
At the moment he is an ew bet to nothing imo. Whether he is good enough to win is one thing, but you know he'll still be travelling well two out. I think the money will come massively for Sizing as we get nearer and nearer, so I can see Finians maybe being a point or two bigger on the day or in the build up.
Also, you'll be able to see how Al Ferof runs in the Arkle on day one, which could be a good pointer for Finians. Al Ferof could easily put up a massive performance in the Arkle, which will then make the Ascot form look really good.
Another interesting little marker to the relative merits of the two big guns as I see them is the consistent I'm So Lucky.
That one was 18l behind Finian's at Ascot last time whereas he was 25l behind Sizing in the Queen Mother last year (both times off level weights). To me it is much more likely that Finian's can improve 7l or more given his history of being lightly raced, especially at the highest level.
Really think he has a rattling good chance. Let's all not forget that Master Minded was considered a banker by almost everyone in a small field Champion Chase when going for his hat-trick, only for Big Zeb to slam him and the rest.
Very often in these championship races - the Queen Mother especially - a new star emerges on the day and puts in a career best. Finian's must be the only one in the field capable of doing that, and, just in the same way that Master Minded and Big Zeb did when they won the race for the first time, the clues were there beforehand that they were really classy horses with the potential to be top-class two milers.
I am sure Finian's is loaded with class and he'll love bowling along and jumping from fence to fence on decent ground. Come on the rainbow!
That one was 18l behind Finian's at Ascot last time whereas he was 25l behind Sizing in the Queen Mother last year (both times off level weights). To me it is much more likely that Finian's can improve 7l or more given his history of being lightly raced, especially at the highest level.
Really think he has a rattling good chance. Let's all not forget that Master Minded was considered a banker by almost everyone in a small field Champion Chase when going for his hat-trick, only for Big Zeb to slam him and the rest.
Very often in these championship races - the Queen Mother especially - a new star emerges on the day and puts in a career best. Finian's must be the only one in the field capable of doing that, and, just in the same way that Master Minded and Big Zeb did when they won the race for the first time, the clues were there beforehand that they were really classy horses with the potential to be top-class two milers.
I am sure Finian's is loaded with class and he'll love bowling along and jumping from fence to fence on decent ground. Come on the rainbow!
Sizing Europe is the best since Moscow imo, a proper class act
Will take the world of beating
Will take the world of beating
Finnians is a great e/w bet, surely won't be out of the first 3 if he stays on his feet
Apologies, I've just reread my last post on here, and obviously meant I think Finians was the best 2 mile novice chaser, not the best 2 mile chaser, that would be ridiculous!
Sizing Europe (1) , Finians Rainbow (5) , Big Zeb (11/2) , Somersby (10) , Hold Fast (14) , Peddlers Cross (16) , Wishfull Thinking (16) , Kauto Stone (20) , Realt Dubh (25) , Blazing Tempo (33) , Gauvain (40) , Im So Lucky (66) , Imsingingtheblues (66) , Nacarat (66) - Others 0 or more
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE comments..........
Philip Hobbs - The problem with Wishfull Thinking has been his breathing. He has 2 wind ops already and it is still not sorted. He has one decent runs this season and three moderate runs. His best trip is somewhere between 2m-3m. I don’t know! It’s hard to tell when he can’t get the air.
Paul Jones - Sizing Europe for me is not just the best two-miler chaser in training but the best chaser in training full stop and is a bet at odds-against.
Andrew King - Wishfull Thinking has lost the plot. Finians Rainbow is very beatable. Sizing Europe should win but it’s not a race I want to get involved in. Andrew King thought Wishfull Thinking at his best would be interesting
Charlie Longsdon - Sizing Europe should retain his crown. There is not much more to say really, he bolts up over 2m and doesn’t stay 3m. If healthy, he’ll win.
Andrew Tinkler - Finian’s Rainbow schooled well this morning. I can’t see him beating Sizing Europe though. Whoever wins this year won’t win it again next year though as Sprinter Sacre will.
Paul Binfield thought Big Zeb was the better bet at the prices
Tom Segal rates Sizing Europe as a 1/3 shot. Thinks Sizing Europe will win. Bookies may go out to get him on the day. Master Minded only recent QM Champ to retain crown.
Henry de Bromhead reported all is well with horse
Joe Tizzard - Sizing Europe fan. Not the strongest Champ chase. Thought he was a spring horse but done well this season.
David Pipe - Im So Lucky & Imsingingtheblues may run for some gd prizemoney. The fav looks a gd thing.
Paul Nicholls - Thinks fav will be hard to beat. Will probs run Kauto Stone doesn't think he stayed at Ascot.
Paddy Power - Feels Big Zeb & Sizing Europe beat each other value with Big Zeb.
Colm Murphy - Big Zeb will find it difficult to beat Sizing Europe, but has a chance.
Barry Geraghty - Finnians Rainbow is 90% of the horse he should be, he was a better horse last year. He may come good in this race. Big Zeb will be close to Sizing Europe.
Donn McClean - Either of the top two.
Ruby Walsh - Sizing Europe.
Davy Russell - Better ground will suit Big Zeb.
Jessica Harrington - Sizing Europe, but Big Zeb will get close.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE comments..........
Philip Hobbs - The problem with Wishfull Thinking has been his breathing. He has 2 wind ops already and it is still not sorted. He has one decent runs this season and three moderate runs. His best trip is somewhere between 2m-3m. I don’t know! It’s hard to tell when he can’t get the air.
Paul Jones - Sizing Europe for me is not just the best two-miler chaser in training but the best chaser in training full stop and is a bet at odds-against.
Andrew King - Wishfull Thinking has lost the plot. Finians Rainbow is very beatable. Sizing Europe should win but it’s not a race I want to get involved in. Andrew King thought Wishfull Thinking at his best would be interesting
Charlie Longsdon - Sizing Europe should retain his crown. There is not much more to say really, he bolts up over 2m and doesn’t stay 3m. If healthy, he’ll win.
Andrew Tinkler - Finian’s Rainbow schooled well this morning. I can’t see him beating Sizing Europe though. Whoever wins this year won’t win it again next year though as Sprinter Sacre will.
Paul Binfield thought Big Zeb was the better bet at the prices
Tom Segal rates Sizing Europe as a 1/3 shot. Thinks Sizing Europe will win. Bookies may go out to get him on the day. Master Minded only recent QM Champ to retain crown.
Henry de Bromhead reported all is well with horse
Joe Tizzard - Sizing Europe fan. Not the strongest Champ chase. Thought he was a spring horse but done well this season.
David Pipe - Im So Lucky & Imsingingtheblues may run for some gd prizemoney. The fav looks a gd thing.
Paul Nicholls - Thinks fav will be hard to beat. Will probs run Kauto Stone doesn't think he stayed at Ascot.
Paddy Power - Feels Big Zeb & Sizing Europe beat each other value with Big Zeb.
Colm Murphy - Big Zeb will find it difficult to beat Sizing Europe, but has a chance.
Barry Geraghty - Finnians Rainbow is 90% of the horse he should be, he was a better horse last year. He may come good in this race. Big Zeb will be close to Sizing Europe.
Donn McClean - Either of the top two.
Ruby Walsh - Sizing Europe.
Davy Russell - Better ground will suit Big Zeb.
Jessica Harrington - Sizing Europe, but Big Zeb will get close.
3:20 QUEEN MOTHER CSE 2m ONLY 10 runners entered
Sizing Europe (10/11) , Big Zeb (9/2) , Finians Rainbow (5) , Somersby (8) , Kauto Stone (16) , Wishfull Thinking (16) , Realt Dubh (25) , Blazing Tempo (28) , Gauvain (33) , Im So Lucky (66)
Plot
A lovable rogue named Finian McLonergan absconds from his native Ireland with a pot of gold secreted in a carpetbag, plus his daughter Sharon in tow. His destination is Rainbow Valley in the mythical state of Missitucky, where he plans to bury his treasure in the mistaken belief that, given its close proximity to Fort Knox, it will multiply.
Hot on his heels is the leprechaun Og, desperate to recover his stolen crock before he turns human. Among those involved in the ensuing shenanigans are Woody Mahoney, a ne'er-do-well dreamer who woos Sharon; his mute sister Susan, who expresses herself in dance; Woody's good friend and business partner Howard, an African American botanist determined to grow mentholated tobacco, and bombastic Senator Billboard Rawkins, who wears his bigotry as if it were a badge of honor.
Complications arise when Rawkins, believing there is gold in Rainbow Valley, attempts to seize the land from the people who live there and makes some racial slurs while doing so. Sharon furiously wishes he'd turn black himself—and, because she is in close proximity to the magical pot of gold, which is capable of granting three wishes, Rawkins does exactly that. Sharon is accused of witchcraft and sentenced to be burned at the stake unless she can make him white again.
To save his daughter, Finian tries to find the pot of gold, unaware Susan has discovered it and hidden it under a bridge. Rawkins eventually meets Og, who quickly realizes what caused the Senator's change in race. Seeing that the change of skin color did nothing to alter his hateful racism, Og casts a spell to make Rawkins more open-minded.
Sharon and Woody gather in the barn to be married, but the Sheriff, his deputies and the local District Attorney barricade the doors and promise to burn the building down if Rawkins isn't white by sunrise. Og meets with Susan on the bridge under which the gold is hidden and, after passionately kissing her, wishes she could talk. When she begins to speak, Og realizes they're standing above the gold.
For a brief moment he considers using the final wish to retain his leprechaun status and return to the fairy world. Instead he decides he would rather remain human with Susan and wishes for Rawkins to be white once more. Thanks to the now-empty crock helping to put out an accidental fire that was about to consume the barn, Howard's mentholated tobacco experiments become successful, ensuring financial success for all the poor people of Rainbow Valley, both white and black. Sharon and Woody are wed, and bid a fond farewell to Finian, who leaves Rainbow Valley in search of his own rainbow.
A lovable rogue named Finian McLonergan absconds from his native Ireland with a pot of gold secreted in a carpetbag, plus his daughter Sharon in tow. His destination is Rainbow Valley in the mythical state of Missitucky, where he plans to bury his treasure in the mistaken belief that, given its close proximity to Fort Knox, it will multiply.
Hot on his heels is the leprechaun Og, desperate to recover his stolen crock before he turns human. Among those involved in the ensuing shenanigans are Woody Mahoney, a ne'er-do-well dreamer who woos Sharon; his mute sister Susan, who expresses herself in dance; Woody's good friend and business partner Howard, an African American botanist determined to grow mentholated tobacco, and bombastic Senator Billboard Rawkins, who wears his bigotry as if it were a badge of honor.
Complications arise when Rawkins, believing there is gold in Rainbow Valley, attempts to seize the land from the people who live there and makes some racial slurs while doing so. Sharon furiously wishes he'd turn black himself—and, because she is in close proximity to the magical pot of gold, which is capable of granting three wishes, Rawkins does exactly that. Sharon is accused of witchcraft and sentenced to be burned at the stake unless she can make him white again.
To save his daughter, Finian tries to find the pot of gold, unaware Susan has discovered it and hidden it under a bridge. Rawkins eventually meets Og, who quickly realizes what caused the Senator's change in race. Seeing that the change of skin color did nothing to alter his hateful racism, Og casts a spell to make Rawkins more open-minded.
Sharon and Woody gather in the barn to be married, but the Sheriff, his deputies and the local District Attorney barricade the doors and promise to burn the building down if Rawkins isn't white by sunrise. Og meets with Susan on the bridge under which the gold is hidden and, after passionately kissing her, wishes she could talk. When she begins to speak, Og realizes they're standing above the gold.
For a brief moment he considers using the final wish to retain his leprechaun status and return to the fairy world. Instead he decides he would rather remain human with Susan and wishes for Rawkins to be white once more. Thanks to the now-empty crock helping to put out an accidental fire that was about to consume the barn, Howard's mentholated tobacco experiments become successful, ensuring financial success for all the poor people of Rainbow Valley, both white and black. Sharon and Woody are wed, and bid a fond farewell to Finian, who leaves Rainbow Valley in search of his own rainbow.
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