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06 Feb 12
13:44
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Date Joined:
28 Jun 10
For me there are three likely possibilities in this seasons Gold Cup. The first is that last season took a great toll on the horse and that with plenty of racing already under his belt he is now regressing. This may seem stupid to say about a 7 year old but he is a french bred and they don't always stay sweet for that long. The second possibility is that he may find this the one day when he belts a fence and doesn't stay up. He hit plenty last year and one day could be the day. The third is that he hasn't regressed and that he jumps roughly the same as he did last year or better and depending on your viewpoint he runs to a mark somewhere between 175-182.
I'd like to look at the first scenario. Has he regressed because barring a fall or several bad mistakes I think it unlikely that any other horse in the race can run to a mark in the high 170's on the day.
Some are suggesting that this is his achilles heel. I don't think that on the limited evidence we have seen that you could legitimately conclude that he has regressed and that this is a case of people clutching at straws.
To this point last season he had run two races. Arguably he ran to a mark in the low 150's on his first appearance last year and then according to the handicapper he ran to a mark of 179 in the King George. Whether that was actually the case I don't know but he won reasonably comfortably from the 160 rated Riverside Theatre and a clearly out of sorts Kauto. In the Gold Cup itself you wouldn't have backed him to get up nearing the 3 mile mark as he seemed to have run his race and was being slightly left by Denman and Kauto. It was only when he hit the rising ground that he ran on and outstayed the other two.
This year I would argue he ran to a mark in the mid to high 160's when beaten in the Betfair. A far better performance than in his reappearance last year. Then he was narrowly beaten by a rejuvenated Kauto in the King George. They two keys are what level did he perform to in this race and what does this suggest regarding his Gold Cup chances? One way of looking at it is that he was closer at the 3 mile point in the King George than he was in the Gold Cup. Another is that the horses around him in this years race whilst easily beaten off had excuses. The key horse for me is Somersby.
Many people say he didn't stay and that this detracts from the form. I take a slightly different view. His next race showed he is in fine fettle and is legitimately a high 160's horse on his day. He clearly didn't stay in my view in the King George. The crucial point is that Long Run was going away from a hard ridden Somersby at the half mile point. I see no reason to think that Somersby didn't give his running to that point and yet he wasn't good enough to go with Long Run even at that early point.
Any other evidence is scant but on the basis that Long Run will be better suited by the tougher course and longer distance of the Gold Cup and that Henderson's main aim for the horse will be that one day in March I see no evidence to suggest that he has regressed.
I am fully confident that if he jumps reasonably that any other horse will have to be able to run to a mark in excess of 180 to beat him.
I'd like to look at the first scenario. Has he regressed because barring a fall or several bad mistakes I think it unlikely that any other horse in the race can run to a mark in the high 170's on the day.
Some are suggesting that this is his achilles heel. I don't think that on the limited evidence we have seen that you could legitimately conclude that he has regressed and that this is a case of people clutching at straws.
To this point last season he had run two races. Arguably he ran to a mark in the low 150's on his first appearance last year and then according to the handicapper he ran to a mark of 179 in the King George. Whether that was actually the case I don't know but he won reasonably comfortably from the 160 rated Riverside Theatre and a clearly out of sorts Kauto. In the Gold Cup itself you wouldn't have backed him to get up nearing the 3 mile mark as he seemed to have run his race and was being slightly left by Denman and Kauto. It was only when he hit the rising ground that he ran on and outstayed the other two.
This year I would argue he ran to a mark in the mid to high 160's when beaten in the Betfair. A far better performance than in his reappearance last year. Then he was narrowly beaten by a rejuvenated Kauto in the King George. They two keys are what level did he perform to in this race and what does this suggest regarding his Gold Cup chances? One way of looking at it is that he was closer at the 3 mile point in the King George than he was in the Gold Cup. Another is that the horses around him in this years race whilst easily beaten off had excuses. The key horse for me is Somersby.
Many people say he didn't stay and that this detracts from the form. I take a slightly different view. His next race showed he is in fine fettle and is legitimately a high 160's horse on his day. He clearly didn't stay in my view in the King George. The crucial point is that Long Run was going away from a hard ridden Somersby at the half mile point. I see no reason to think that Somersby didn't give his running to that point and yet he wasn't good enough to go with Long Run even at that early point.
Any other evidence is scant but on the basis that Long Run will be better suited by the tougher course and longer distance of the Gold Cup and that Henderson's main aim for the horse will be that one day in March I see no evidence to suggest that he has regressed.
I am fully confident that if he jumps reasonably that any other horse will have to be able to run to a mark in excess of 180 to beat him.
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Agreed on all points, the most likely winner. But I do think that sooner or later SWC will unseat, even if the horse stays upright. For that reason, I'm not sure I'll ever be able to back him again at what will always be a fairly shortish price.
Unfortunately, assessing horse racing usually depends on rationalising (very) small amounts of data with many variable (unless you're an all weather fan). That's why people can draw radically different conclusions, often equally valid at first sight, from the same form.
It's difficult to say Long Run has regressed. It simpler to say he has not improved. His King George run, in what people formerly described as his perfect conditions (3 m at Kempton), looked broadly similar to what he put up last season. He also looks like he might be a touch slower than last season as he's been readily outpaced by Kauto Star twice, but LR now looks even more of a stayer - he was off the bridle a mile or so out in both his races this season and stayed on very, very well in both.
Condisering your other options, he might fall, but he hasn't fallen or unseated so far in any of his 20 jumps races, despite his jumping problems. He might also decline early. I've commented on this at length in another thread and won't do so again here, except to add he's by Cadoudal, and his progeny do not age well. (I believe Big Buck's is the only one to win a major race aged older than 8).
In truth, we aren't going to know if Long Run's regressed until March 16th - 3 races per season just isn't enough to make a sound judgement.
It's difficult to say Long Run has regressed. It simpler to say he has not improved. His King George run, in what people formerly described as his perfect conditions (3 m at Kempton), looked broadly similar to what he put up last season. He also looks like he might be a touch slower than last season as he's been readily outpaced by Kauto Star twice, but LR now looks even more of a stayer - he was off the bridle a mile or so out in both his races this season and stayed on very, very well in both.
Condisering your other options, he might fall, but he hasn't fallen or unseated so far in any of his 20 jumps races, despite his jumping problems. He might also decline early. I've commented on this at length in another thread and won't do so again here, except to add he's by Cadoudal, and his progeny do not age well. (I believe Big Buck's is the only one to win a major race aged older than 8).
In truth, we aren't going to know if Long Run's regressed until March 16th - 3 races per season just isn't enough to make a sound judgement.
Agree with that Stront, too soon to say regressed, but definitely not improved! To the OP, yes most French horses start racing earlier, mature more quickly and peak at younger ages. Many just stop improving though rather than regressing. Don't think The Fellow was any better or worse when he finally won the CGC at 9 than he was when beaten a sh hd at 6?
Yep I agree with that.... he has run similar to last season for me. The big difference is that KS was not right last season and is now back to his best this.
The GC is going to play to LR's strengths more than the KG did, and I expect the two of them to be very, very close! All about LR@s jumping for me. If he jumps well, he will win.
The GC is going to play to LR's strengths more than the KG did, and I expect the two of them to be very, very close! All about LR@s jumping for me. If he jumps well, he will win.
Don't agree KS is back to his best, think he is running better but not to 180+, more like 175.
Not a big one for numbers but KS has had Ruby up for both races this season and is clearly being raced far more prominently, putting pressure on Long Run earlier in a race, usetting his rhythm and generally getting to the horse and his amateur jockey.
I think Long Run is probably about the same as last year but connections have to work out how to deal with KS and the new tactics employed when it comes to the GC.
Also, slight digression but KS jumping has been far from bombproof over the years too!
I think Long Run is probably about the same as last year but connections have to work out how to deal with KS and the new tactics employed when it comes to the GC.
Also, slight digression but KS jumping has been far from bombproof over the years too!
Incidentally, I’ve now seen a few people suggest or hint that the gold Cup is Long Run’s "target" and the King George somehow doesn’t matter. The GC will play to Lon Run’s strengths more than the KG does. But the KG is the second most prestigious steeplechase on the entire racing calendar. The horse will have been prepared, to his peak, to the best of Nicky Henderson’s ability.
Agree with that stront. I know for a fact NJH felt he had LR as well as he had ever had him prior to the GC, so that cant be used as an excuse. But as you say, the GC will undoubtedly suit him better.
Thieves. Sorry I didnt mean back to the best he has ever been. Obviously age will have taken its toll, but I mean he is back to his best in terms of the best he can be at this stage of his career. He was clearly not himself last season.
Thieves. Sorry I didnt mean back to the best he has ever been. Obviously age will have taken its toll, but I mean he is back to his best in terms of the best he can be at this stage of his career. He was clearly not himself last season.
I think Long Run with a bit further and at 100% will beat Kauto and I would say he's at the same level ability wise despite probably running a bit below his best. The simple explanation is Ruby Walsh. Both times they have met so far Ruby & Kauto have dictated how the race has been run & put Long Run under pressure. I'm pretty certain if you put Ruby on Long Run he would be riding him like the best horse in the race & I'm not sure Sam does that. I don't think he's improved from last season but I think tactics have had a lot to do with the results this season. Kauto has been brilliant but a lot of credit goes to Ruby.
Re the Op, I would not say his engine has regressed in any way, but mistakes at crucial moments mean he has not run as well as he might have done.
I have never been of the opinion that Long Run is a truly special horse, and still aren't, but i've been impressed with him in defeat both times this season. He's chased home an absolute legend of a horse who continues to defy his age
Even if Long Run has declined from his best, he still looks some way clear from the rest of the chasing pack
Even if Long Run has declined from his best, he still looks some way clear from the rest of the chasing pack
No disrespect but I don't think I follow your logic. He isn't special but even some way below his best he would still be some way clear of the others? Wouldn't that be the definition of special?
I think the rest are a poor/average bunch. No doubting Long Run is very good
Kauto Star is special
Kauto Star is special
No arguments there. Kauto is indeed special. And about 10 lengths inferior at Cheltenham. 
Probably, Gold Cup trip stretched him last year 
Wish the tank was still around, would be all in e/w
Wish the tank was still around, would be all in e/w
inferior at Cheltenham is not how i would describe a horse thats won the Gold Cup twice,and also finished 2nd and 3rd when not at his best.
at anyone who does
at anyone who does
Hmmm, that's not evidence Budd. Desert Orchid won a Gold Cup, placed in how many others I can't remember, including when not at his best, placed in Champion Chase and Arkle as well. He was a lot more than 10L worse at Cheltenham than at Kempton, Ascot, Sandown or Fairyhouse! More like 20L!
abt 12L rather than 10L btw the difference on the clock (126 at Haydock and Kempton, 122 at Chelt). Just for info.
Dessie, great as he was, beat Yahoo.
Kauto beat Denman and Exotic Dancer.
Anyway, "inferior" is a relative term. I assume eternal means Kauto is 10 lbs inferior to Long Run over the Gold Cup C&D. Which is fine on the evidence so far, though that's hardly conclusive.
Kauto beat Denman and Exotic Dancer.
Anyway, "inferior" is a relative term. I assume eternal means Kauto is 10 lbs inferior to Long Run over the Gold Cup C&D. Which is fine on the evidence so far, though that's hardly conclusive.
Indeed Kauto Star was never as good as Denman around Cheltenham as their records show. He is a horse with speed over stamina which is best for Kempton whereas Denman was the opposite which is best for cheltenham. Kauto Star loses when there is a strong pace on as when behind Denman in no way was he below form he was beaten fair and square as his subsequent runs there have shown when there is a strong pace on and the mistakes come in behind. He is possibly going to be ridden differently there this season which is interesting. I would agree Kauto is around 10lb worse at Prestbury even less if a strong pace is on up front. Best Mate was 10lb better aroumd Cheltenham on good ground as he could jump, cruise and kick. Shame I cant get the time machine out and have that bet on Matey against Kauto around there off levels, max bet for me with a strong pace on good ground.
I thought he meant 10L inferior to himself elsewhere?
I can't see how Kauto(Best Horse I have seen)Star has improved for turning 12. Therefore simply speaking Long Run looks to have regressed about 10 to 12LBs IMO. Might still be good enough to win it, but regressed definitely.
Shockster, that's only true if he was that good in the first place, if Denman had regressed already, as his other runs last season indicated, then Long Run was being overrated.
TLU - Denman is irrelevant to my argument as I am going only on performance against Kauto in the Betfair and King George.
thieves - not sure. That's why if you're going to use a comparative term you make clear what you're comparing
Shockster - why do you find it so hard to believe Kauto might have been out of form last season and in form this season? He's had good years (2009) and bad (2008) in the past.
Shockster - why do you find it so hard to believe Kauto might have been out of form last season and in form this season? He's had good years (2009) and bad (2008) in the past.
Stront as we all know Kauto is an exception not the rule. However, I can't believe a horse turning 12 is open to improvement. If he is running to last years mark, then to me that is improvement as I would expect him to regress. That is the only basis of my argument, not very scientific I'm afraid.
well no doubt he is better this season,just look at the way he was performing last season.
Long Run imo is rated too high.Although hes still a lot higher than all but one.
Denman was clearly past his best last season.
Anyone who thinks that any horse that competed in last years Gold Cup will be a threat this year aside from KS and LR,should rethink imo.
If nothing comes out of the Hennessey next Sunday,then we have a 2 horse race imo,im convinced of it.
Long Run imo is rated too high.Although hes still a lot higher than all but one.
Denman was clearly past his best last season.
Anyone who thinks that any horse that competed in last years Gold Cup will be a threat this year aside from KS and LR,should rethink imo.
If nothing comes out of the Hennessey next Sunday,then we have a 2 horse race imo,im convinced of it.
OK Shockster. You might be right, though I don't think you are. Kauto was found sick in the King George last season. He looks a lot fitter/better/happier this season than last. That might of course be an illusion. It might be due to his new tactics. It might be (as Nicholls has suggested) that it took him a long time to get over his awful 2010 Gold Cup fall.
I agree he can't be improving overall at 12, but seasonal form is noise on a longer curve of a horse's improvement/regression. Kauto was outstanding in 2007, OK in 2008, oustanding in 2009, poor in 2010, so there is precedent for what appears to be happening now.
As far as I'm concerned it's not impposible he was out of form last year and is in form this year. And as I've posted elsewhere, if you don't believe that then you have to believe he declined 20-30 lbs from December 2009 to January 2011, which I don't.
I agree he can't be improving overall at 12, but seasonal form is noise on a longer curve of a horse's improvement/regression. Kauto was outstanding in 2007, OK in 2008, oustanding in 2009, poor in 2010, so there is precedent for what appears to be happening now.
As far as I'm concerned it's not impposible he was out of form last year and is in form this year. And as I've posted elsewhere, if you don't believe that then you have to believe he declined 20-30 lbs from December 2009 to January 2011, which I don't.
I usually agree with you budd but there is one from last year who I think might be a threat - his name is Weird Al and he was never right last year after that slugfest at Carlisle with Little Josh when he finished distressed.
Good at Wetherby, decent in the Betfair and will be seen to better effect over extended Gold Cup trip. Acts on track too.
Not saying he'll win but will perform much better than last year.
Good at Wetherby, decent in the Betfair and will be seen to better effect over extended Gold Cup trip. Acts on track too.
Not saying he'll win but will perform much better than last year.
shock - as stront kindly pointed out I wasn't very clear in what I was saying. If Denman was regressing last season - the clock says he was and he is a horse you should be able to rely on timewise with his powerful running style - then Long Run's CGC might have been a weak one as the regressed Denman was still able to finish 2nd in it, ahead of the out of form KS and some handicappers. If Denman only ran to about 167 then Long Run only ran to around 174 when winning the CGC. Perfectly reasonable for winning a Gold Cup but low compared to the 4 previous runnings. If he ran to 174 in the KG too then that would make KS a 175 now which is sensible for a remarkable 12yo.
We'll have to wait and see Stront and until 16/3 we can argue. You know your stuff that's for sure. Unless Kauto comes over the last with mine I will be shouting him home.
Shock - it's exciting isn't it. Great to have the discussion as well. Though I can't wait for the actual racing to start!
Thieves - apologies, it was eternal who confused me, not you. My comment was clumsily worded and I'm sorry.
Thieves - apologies, it was eternal who confused me, not you. My comment was clumsily worded and I'm sorry.
Rease,understand what you say mate,and yes i agree he will run better this year,hes certainly been running well this season.
Can he trouble the front 2 though mate??
Not for me,but maybe without the 2 favs?? Now that could be an interesting bet.
Can he trouble the front 2 though mate??
Not for me,but maybe without the 2 favs?? Now that could be an interesting bet.
TLU - those ratings make more sense, however more achievable for a few horses. I though cannot have KS 10/12LB better than last season, so stick to my point about LR regressing, maybe not 10/12 lbs though.
Rease - Weird Al only has about 10lb to find from the Betfair, he has only had 8 chases so further progression is very plausible. 5 wins in 8 chases is a nice profile too. Are they looking to get another run into him do we know? Hard race to win off such a long break.
On a different note, Nicky Henderson at the start of the season was saying how much Long Run had grown and how he barely recognised him. He said he looked a nicer horse and should have improved. Personally I do not trust the man as far I can throw him, but they seemed rather bullish at the start of the season.
thieves - think he's going straight there 'cos he's a bit fragile - staggered and needed oxygen twice after races.
Feel a bit sorry for Ian Williams who did n't do anything wrong and was a bit unlucky with the horse.
Budd - yep, bit of a leap of faith to see him troubling big two but I think he's very talented.
Feel a bit sorry for Ian Williams who did n't do anything wrong and was a bit unlucky with the horse.
Budd - yep, bit of a leap of faith to see him troubling big two but I think he's very talented.
shock - KS had a horrible season last season, 7L behind Riverside Theatre at Kempton for example and a 20L turnaround at Kempton with LR! The clock confirms that as well. He is undoubtedly a lot better this. Interesting that the official handicapper had KS at 174 after the Betfair and only put him back in the 180s after the King George. A race where the 3rd and 4th weren't right and/or didn't stay? He is rating the KG on LR and rating LR through Denman. All the same problem.
TLU - Is Kauto Better this season or is Long Run well below last season. I'm not sure at all. We all have our theories and only time will tell. 
Rease - sounds like he has the talent but maybe lacks the constitution?
Viking - Henderson is a very good trainer but a bit of prat. One thing that does cross my mind though is whether he has now had enough time to train the stamina out of the horse!
Viking - Henderson is a very good trainer but a bit of prat. One thing that does cross my mind though is whether he has now had enough time to train the stamina out of the horse!
The clock also says Kauto is better Shock. Not at his previous best but a lot better than his dismal showing last season.
thieveslikeus, that is very true. I was just making the point that at the start of the season they all seemed rather confident
Get your money on now for the 2013 Ryanair and 2014 Champion Chase :)
I get the impression connections have been surprised. But then Hendo isn't exactly Mr Staying Chasers is he
Just a thought - which could be way off. I believe Tom Syminds rode Long Run for most of his work last season but he's not with the yard anymore. I wonder of the change of regular rider could have affected the horse (they are very sensitive to their environment), or the way the yard are assessing the horse, his work, fitness, etc?
Whether he means to or not, Henderson trains for speed stront. Fastest way to the poor house I know is backing his horses when they go up in trip. You could actually have made a profit backing blind when they drop in trip historically (not that I am claiming to have done so myself!)
That's why he has such an outstanding record in hurdles and bumpers thieves, where I look at his runners very closely.
has long run regressed this season - put the rod away please.
I think he may have a real struggle on Saturday if it is a small field and What A Friend is sat on his heels in a slowly run race getting 10lbs.
i hope long run gets beat on saturday.
better price for gold cup.
better price for gold cup.
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