Cheltenham Festival
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02 Feb 12
17:29
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20 Nov 11
Firstly, what an ugly name for a really decent horse! 
He's become exasperating over the last couple of seasons and even though he's a professional loser, I don't see too much wrong with his attitude.
I think he could do with a go at three miles though obviously the Ryanair is a better compromise at the moment - the QM entry is just a waste of time!
He is quite clearly not up to beating Sizing Europe & Big Zeb over two miles and it seems to be a case of 'where do we go from here' for his connections.
He needs a confidence booster or two (like Twice Over had before winning his first Champion Stakes) and then possibly wait for the big 3m chase at Aintree, where he could provide a shock against more fancied, battle-weary Cheltenham chasers.
In his two runs over longer trips, he ran a shocker when pulled up behind Long Run in the King George, and when beaten at odds of 4/11, he was found to be clinically abnormal after the race.
What would you guys do with him?
I think he's been running his heart out, but just can't cut it in the top grade any more at the minimum trip.
He's become exasperating over the last couple of seasons and even though he's a professional loser, I don't see too much wrong with his attitude.
I think he could do with a go at three miles though obviously the Ryanair is a better compromise at the moment - the QM entry is just a waste of time!
He is quite clearly not up to beating Sizing Europe & Big Zeb over two miles and it seems to be a case of 'where do we go from here' for his connections.
He needs a confidence booster or two (like Twice Over had before winning his first Champion Stakes) and then possibly wait for the big 3m chase at Aintree, where he could provide a shock against more fancied, battle-weary Cheltenham chasers.
In his two runs over longer trips, he ran a shocker when pulled up behind Long Run in the King George, and when beaten at odds of 4/11, he was found to be clinically abnormal after the race.
What would you guys do with him?
I think he's been running his heart out, but just can't cut it in the top grade any more at the minimum trip.
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I think he's crying out for 2 1/2 miles on a galloping track, like the Melling at Aintree. I entriely agree he's no longer quick enough for 2 m. Like you, I think his attitude is fine and he has the great strength of jumping well. He was looking somewhere back to his best in his last two races in ireland but disappointed at Ascot. He just seems to lack the speed for 2 m and the stamina for 3 m+. Personally, I'd run him in the Ryanair because his Festival record is so good - 412.
Incidentally, I think he's been found to be unwell after both his runs in excess of 2 1/2 miles (the Jan 2010 King George and his seaosnal debut this year). I also don't believe in "cofidence boosters" for horses. Confidence is a human emotion. The exception I make is to help a horse practice jumping by giving it an easier/slower race, but jumping isn't Pady's problem. |
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Isn't travelling his problem these days ? He got very sick after Kempton and disappointed at Ascot.
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I haven't heard that Sint, so I can't really comment.
Strontium - I have to disagree with you about confidence boosters, as a win against mediocre opposition when starting about 1/5 Fav could well be what this horse needs, though as you stated, his jumping isn't a problem at all. I might be persuaded to go along with you about the Ryanair, as he's proven at Cheltenham, but I've wanted to see him over further for so long, that Aintree (where he's ran well before) over an easier three miles, might suit even more. I think he's a smashing chaser and he deserves a change of fortune, which could well happen over further. PS - I can't remember the last horse I saw with a string of second places to its name that WASN'T a rogue! |
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Sint - good point, you could be right.
Hugh - you could be right that the Aintree Bowl would suit him and at this stage something like has to be worth a try - he's probably only got 1.5 seasons left. I still don't agree about confidence boosters though. Winning a small race might give confidence to the jockey and the trainer, which are important and could have an effect in terms of things likle tactics and routine. But the horse doesn't know it's won. They run because they are pack animals that instinctively run away from hunters. I rather think the subtleties of horse racing escape most of them... |
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I think you might be doing the 'Giant's Causeways' of this world a great dis-service!
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Leaders of the pack don't like to be headed for sure! That's why I like horses that stay on once they are in the lead, especially if they repel challengers. Horses that get up near the finish may be visually more impressive but they are often flattered.
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It's actually a great name imo Hugh.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCHDaSbqNss Nobody does it Fasterer.  |
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TF - I tink it must be an Oirish ting mate
Shirley, Paddytheplasterer would have been a much better name than the mouthful that the poor animal's been burdened with? Over the years, I've always been keen to forgive the recent form of Irish horses (coming to Cheltenham in March) that have ran well at previous Festivals, because invariably, those races they've been bladdered in, are run at a crawl and in bottomless ground. As you're well aware, Cheltenham Festival races are nearly always run on much better ground and at a strong gallop. Paddy's 75 on B/F for the Ryanair, and if I could be sure of his participation, I'd have a score at that price because it can't last, and he's got a real chance of providing an upset. Paddy ticks all the boxes and his Spring record in the UK is more than impressive. PS - at the risk of being a massive after-timer, I backed Bertie's Dream a couple of years ago, and backed him again at 190 I/R!  |
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That I do agree with Hugh - the price is an insult to the beast.
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Strontium - where do you think he'll line up?
Have you heard any whispers? I said it earlier that the QM is a waste of time as he just can't beat the big two in the betting. |
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Whisper I've heard, which I have good reason to believe, is the Ryanair - but with that trainer/syndicate I couldn't swear it'll happen.
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75 on here is huge, and 50/1 with the bookies (SJ) is generous enough.
It has to be a big concern when a horse is 3 (possibly 4) times the odds it really should be, and I get paranoid that they just want to steal my stake! |
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Be hilarious if Paddy won the Queen Mother
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It would be great got him in ew doubles and trebles. Not booking hols just yet though
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i can't for one minute think that if the connections were really planning on the ryanair ...his price would still be 75's
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People easily forget that he was 2nd in the race 2 years ago and that Big Zeb had such an awful jumping record before that day...
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Al Ferof benefitted from a couple of penalty kicks prior to glory last season. Confidence might be the wrong word, getting in the winning groove maybe ! The point is creating positive habits like winning can only be beneficial, after all behaviour breeds behaviour.
As for Paddy Hugh, i think he's still capable of cutting it at the top table granted a fastish surface. Maybe a trip to America or what was that race Venetias The Outback way ran well in a few years back. Mega prize money for framing, shud be right up Paddys street !! |
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The Nakayama Grand Jump over 2m 4.5f in mid April, is it still going ?
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TLU - I'm all for overlooking a few dodgy runs if the conditions come right for a horse with proven Festival form, but Big Zeb seems to jump fine nowadays, as does Sizing Europe, and he's got a lot to find with that pair.
I really do believe he's got little chance, and he'll struggle to make the frame over 2M, so The Ryanair is by far a better target against arguably weaker opposition. Ally that to my suspicion that he NEEDS a trip nowadays, I think it just has to be The Ryanair. |
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I was just commenting on the idea that it would be "funny" if he won. As I said 2 years ago as the Arkle winner he looked a pretty decent bet and ran really well. He is not in the same form now for sure.
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Quitely fancied for the Ryanair by some,Cant see it myself,But would be nice to see him back to form
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He was put up as a good thing for the Ryanair last year (McCoy) and he could well be placed if back to his near best.... that said this is a good renewal.
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On at 40/1 ew and think it is a fantastic value bet tbh. Lot's of Solid Grade 1 & 2 form which is more than good enough to hit the frame in this contest. A fast-run 2.5m on good ground round Chelt is exactly what the doctor ordered for this fellow and I think he can run a big race. Gl everyone
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