JLT Handicap chase 3m 1f

Early doors l know guys and as yet obviously no Irish horses in the betting until their marks are revealed but l have gone through the British runners priced up on oddscheckers using the usual trends that this race throws up and l didn't get as a shortlist as l thought l would.

The trends that race usually throws up are as follows;

rated no higher than 143
good performance last time out
novices have gone from having a poor record to having a great record since Wichita Lineman won
previous festival form is a bonus
horses aged 11 or older struggle to get placed never mind win 0/35 since '97
Paul Nicholls is 0/15 as his horses are constantly badly handicapped

Using the horses priced up on oddschecker and using the above trends as a guide the following horses l thought are worth noting (1st 2 are no secrets to anyone)

Hold On Julio - rated 144 but given he's lightly raced and progressive l am not going to hold that 1lb against him. Being so lightly raced he's effectively a novice and is 3/3 over fences and co-incidently also 3/3 over this trip, 25f. The one worry l would have with him is that he didn't jump with too much fluency down the back at Sandown on both circuits and it was just the fact that he was so well handicapped off that mark that allowed to him to continually come back on the bridle. He's obviously off a much higher here and they are likely to go a strong gallop so if he where to make those mistakes again he could get too far back. The upside is that the fences at Cheltenham on the Old course are spaced out alot more than those at Sandown which should allow him to get back into a rythmn should he hit one. lt's also a slight niggle that King didn't run him in the Sky Bet as Battonier had worked all over him at home, this obviously looks alot better now since Battonier won at the weekend but l find it hard to think that he's upto a mark of 144 already as a novice even when working at home. Julio may have had an off day and l don't usually pay attention to gallop reports but it was obviously enough to worry his trainer so it's food for thought, especially at his current price.

Sunnyhill Boy - rated 142 and was a well backed favourite last year for this race when off 139 and fell for the only time in his career. He has now been well backed for his last 3 chase starts, one of which was the Irish national when he finished 3rd. His powerful connections obviously still feel he is well capable of winning off this mark and he did look a big danger turning in at Fairyhouse when just getting stopped slightly and then maybe stamina ran out close home. He was disappointing last time out when again well backed but he ran no sort of race and was pulled up, found to have an irregualr heart beat, so he does need to prove his well being but l have a feeling we won't see him out on the track until this race as connections used the race he was pulled up in last time the previous year to ready him for his assault on this race. The one thing we can rely on is that if JP wants to gets his money on, then Jonjo, who is very good at getting them ready for the big day, will have him 100% fit.

Galaxy Rock - rated 144 and only had 9 starts over fences and has been very progressive this year. He ran in last years Kim Muir as a novice, they have a dreadful record in that race, and although he was beaten 28l into 4th if we take out Junior, who was a handicap good thing, he was actually only beaten 4l. That came off a mark of 131 and l like the fact that was his only defeat over fences at the course. He easily won a race at the course earlier in the season over 27f  and that form has worked out extremely well with Carruthers, won Hennessey, 14l back in 3rd and Hey Big Spender, won twice since, a further 4l back in 4th. He ran aswell as could be expected in my eyes in the Sky Bet as the fast, flat nature of that track was never going to play to his strengths and it was encouraging to see him keeping on at the end. A couple negatives to note with regards to this race, if we accept that this is the race for Sunnyhill Boy then AP will not be able to ride and you would imagine connections would want him on board in an open handicap. The other negative is that now the Kim Muir is a 0-145 he can run in that and is favourite with a lot of books for that race so he could end up there again. Either way he has an appealing profile for a festival handicap.

Cappa Bleu - rated 147 so the stats suggest he is just too high but the fact that he has only ran 11 times over fences (5 under rules, 6 p2p) and he has won 6 of them and been placed when completing in the others. The course holds no fears for him as he won the Foxhunters in 2009 and it was encouraging that was able to produce a career best performance first time out this season after a big lay off. He beat Tamrinbleu that day, who is best when fresh (was that day), who has since gone onto win himself to give the form some substance. He also ran a really big race in the Welsh national, only horse to complete the course carrying more than 11st, looking a danger turning for home before the lighter weighted "plot horses" got away from him up the home straight on bottomless ground but he still managed to hold on for 3rd place. Connections haven't suggested that this is the way they'll go, Grand National is his target, but trainers have used this race as a stepping stone for national runners in the past and there is 4 weeks between the festival and the national this year giving horses more time to recover. All in all he's one from left field but could be finally delivering on the promise he showed when winning the Foxhunters.

Pearlysteps - rated 143 and his last 2 runs have been career bests altough they have come on flat tracks. He's only had 7 chase starts and, won 1 placed in 4, and it's his placed form as a novice that suggests he may be well handicapped, especially when we consider that Henry Daly's horses were badly out of form all last year. He finished mid div in the NH chase last year, maybe didn't get the trip though form of the yard could also have been big factor and he had finished 3rd in a novice handicap chase at the track over 21f behind The Giant Bolster suggesting he does handle the undulations. His jumping has been alot better this year, did fall 2 outings ago but jumped well in the main, and if he continues on his steady progression he could find a fast run race with a stiff finish right up his street.

Any thoughts would be gratefully received and if anyone thinks l have missed another runner out then maybe they want to make a case for their choice.