Cheltenham Festival
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Early doors l know guys and as yet obviously no Irish horses in the betting until their marks are revealed but l have gone through the British runners priced up on oddscheckers using the usual trends that this race throws up and l didn't get as a shortlist as l thought l would.
The trends that race usually throws up are as follows;
rated no higher than 143
good performance last time out
novices have gone from having a poor record to having a great record since Wichita Lineman won
previous festival form is a bonus
horses aged 11 or older struggle to get placed never mind win 0/35 since '97
Paul Nicholls is 0/15 as his horses are constantly badly handicapped
Using the horses priced up on oddschecker and using the above trends as a guide the following horses l thought are worth noting (1st 2 are no secrets to anyone)
Hold On Julio - rated 144 but given he's lightly raced and progressive l am not going to hold that 1lb against him. Being so lightly raced he's effectively a novice and is 3/3 over fences and co-incidently also 3/3 over this trip, 25f. The one worry l would have with him is that he didn't jump with too much fluency down the back at Sandown on both circuits and it was just the fact that he was so well handicapped off that mark that allowed to him to continually come back on the bridle. He's obviously off a much higher here and they are likely to go a strong gallop so if he where to make those mistakes again he could get too far back. The upside is that the fences at Cheltenham on the Old course are spaced out alot more than those at Sandown which should allow him to get back into a rythmn should he hit one. lt's also a slight niggle that King didn't run him in the Sky Bet as Battonier had worked all over him at home, this obviously looks alot better now since Battonier won at the weekend but l find it hard to think that he's upto a mark of 144 already as a novice even when working at home. Julio may have had an off day and l don't usually pay attention to gallop reports but it was obviously enough to worry his trainer so it's food for thought, especially at his current price.
Sunnyhill Boy - rated 142 and was a well backed favourite last year for this race when off 139 and fell for the only time in his career. He has now been well backed for his last 3 chase starts, one of which was the Irish national when he finished 3rd. His powerful connections obviously still feel he is well capable of winning off this mark and he did look a big danger turning in at Fairyhouse when just getting stopped slightly and then maybe stamina ran out close home. He was disappointing last time out when again well backed but he ran no sort of race and was pulled up, found to have an irregualr heart beat, so he does need to prove his well being but l have a feeling we won't see him out on the track until this race as connections used the race he was pulled up in last time the previous year to ready him for his assault on this race. The one thing we can rely on is that if JP wants to gets his money on, then Jonjo, who is very good at getting them ready for the big day, will have him 100% fit.
Galaxy Rock - rated 144 and only had 9 starts over fences and has been very progressive this year. He ran in last years Kim Muir as a novice, they have a dreadful record in that race, and although he was beaten 28l into 4th if we take out Junior, who was a handicap good thing, he was actually only beaten 4l. That came off a mark of 131 and l like the fact that was his only defeat over fences at the course. He easily won a race at the course earlier in the season over 27f and that form has worked out extremely well with Carruthers, won Hennessey, 14l back in 3rd and Hey Big Spender, won twice since, a further 4l back in 4th. He ran aswell as could be expected in my eyes in the Sky Bet as the fast, flat nature of that track was never going to play to his strengths and it was encouraging to see him keeping on at the end. A couple negatives to note with regards to this race, if we accept that this is the race for Sunnyhill Boy then AP will not be able to ride and you would imagine connections would want him on board in an open handicap. The other negative is that now the Kim Muir is a 0-145 he can run in that and is favourite with a lot of books for that race so he could end up there again. Either way he has an appealing profile for a festival handicap.
Cappa Bleu - rated 147 so the stats suggest he is just too high but the fact that he has only ran 11 times over fences (5 under rules, 6 p2p) and he has won 6 of them and been placed when completing in the others. The course holds no fears for him as he won the Foxhunters in 2009 and it was encouraging that was able to produce a career best performance first time out this season after a big lay off. He beat Tamrinbleu that day, who is best when fresh (was that day), who has since gone onto win himself to give the form some substance. He also ran a really big race in the Welsh national, only horse to complete the course carrying more than 11st, looking a danger turning for home before the lighter weighted "plot horses" got away from him up the home straight on bottomless ground but he still managed to hold on for 3rd place. Connections haven't suggested that this is the way they'll go, Grand National is his target, but trainers have used this race as a stepping stone for national runners in the past and there is 4 weeks between the festival and the national this year giving horses more time to recover. All in all he's one from left field but could be finally delivering on the promise he showed when winning the Foxhunters.
Pearlysteps - rated 143 and his last 2 runs have been career bests altough they have come on flat tracks. He's only had 7 chase starts and, won 1 placed in 4, and it's his placed form as a novice that suggests he may be well handicapped, especially when we consider that Henry Daly's horses were badly out of form all last year. He finished mid div in the NH chase last year, maybe didn't get the trip though form of the yard could also have been big factor and he had finished 3rd in a novice handicap chase at the track over 21f behind The Giant Bolster suggesting he does handle the undulations. His jumping has been alot better this year, did fall 2 outings ago but jumped well in the main, and if he continues on his steady progression he could find a fast run race with a stiff finish right up his street.
Any thoughts would be gratefully received and if anyone thinks l have missed another runner out then maybe they want to make a case for their choice.
The trends that race usually throws up are as follows;
rated no higher than 143
good performance last time out
novices have gone from having a poor record to having a great record since Wichita Lineman won
previous festival form is a bonus
horses aged 11 or older struggle to get placed never mind win 0/35 since '97
Paul Nicholls is 0/15 as his horses are constantly badly handicapped
Using the horses priced up on oddschecker and using the above trends as a guide the following horses l thought are worth noting (1st 2 are no secrets to anyone)
Hold On Julio - rated 144 but given he's lightly raced and progressive l am not going to hold that 1lb against him. Being so lightly raced he's effectively a novice and is 3/3 over fences and co-incidently also 3/3 over this trip, 25f. The one worry l would have with him is that he didn't jump with too much fluency down the back at Sandown on both circuits and it was just the fact that he was so well handicapped off that mark that allowed to him to continually come back on the bridle. He's obviously off a much higher here and they are likely to go a strong gallop so if he where to make those mistakes again he could get too far back. The upside is that the fences at Cheltenham on the Old course are spaced out alot more than those at Sandown which should allow him to get back into a rythmn should he hit one. lt's also a slight niggle that King didn't run him in the Sky Bet as Battonier had worked all over him at home, this obviously looks alot better now since Battonier won at the weekend but l find it hard to think that he's upto a mark of 144 already as a novice even when working at home. Julio may have had an off day and l don't usually pay attention to gallop reports but it was obviously enough to worry his trainer so it's food for thought, especially at his current price.
Sunnyhill Boy - rated 142 and was a well backed favourite last year for this race when off 139 and fell for the only time in his career. He has now been well backed for his last 3 chase starts, one of which was the Irish national when he finished 3rd. His powerful connections obviously still feel he is well capable of winning off this mark and he did look a big danger turning in at Fairyhouse when just getting stopped slightly and then maybe stamina ran out close home. He was disappointing last time out when again well backed but he ran no sort of race and was pulled up, found to have an irregualr heart beat, so he does need to prove his well being but l have a feeling we won't see him out on the track until this race as connections used the race he was pulled up in last time the previous year to ready him for his assault on this race. The one thing we can rely on is that if JP wants to gets his money on, then Jonjo, who is very good at getting them ready for the big day, will have him 100% fit.
Galaxy Rock - rated 144 and only had 9 starts over fences and has been very progressive this year. He ran in last years Kim Muir as a novice, they have a dreadful record in that race, and although he was beaten 28l into 4th if we take out Junior, who was a handicap good thing, he was actually only beaten 4l. That came off a mark of 131 and l like the fact that was his only defeat over fences at the course. He easily won a race at the course earlier in the season over 27f and that form has worked out extremely well with Carruthers, won Hennessey, 14l back in 3rd and Hey Big Spender, won twice since, a further 4l back in 4th. He ran aswell as could be expected in my eyes in the Sky Bet as the fast, flat nature of that track was never going to play to his strengths and it was encouraging to see him keeping on at the end. A couple negatives to note with regards to this race, if we accept that this is the race for Sunnyhill Boy then AP will not be able to ride and you would imagine connections would want him on board in an open handicap. The other negative is that now the Kim Muir is a 0-145 he can run in that and is favourite with a lot of books for that race so he could end up there again. Either way he has an appealing profile for a festival handicap.
Cappa Bleu - rated 147 so the stats suggest he is just too high but the fact that he has only ran 11 times over fences (5 under rules, 6 p2p) and he has won 6 of them and been placed when completing in the others. The course holds no fears for him as he won the Foxhunters in 2009 and it was encouraging that was able to produce a career best performance first time out this season after a big lay off. He beat Tamrinbleu that day, who is best when fresh (was that day), who has since gone onto win himself to give the form some substance. He also ran a really big race in the Welsh national, only horse to complete the course carrying more than 11st, looking a danger turning for home before the lighter weighted "plot horses" got away from him up the home straight on bottomless ground but he still managed to hold on for 3rd place. Connections haven't suggested that this is the way they'll go, Grand National is his target, but trainers have used this race as a stepping stone for national runners in the past and there is 4 weeks between the festival and the national this year giving horses more time to recover. All in all he's one from left field but could be finally delivering on the promise he showed when winning the Foxhunters.
Pearlysteps - rated 143 and his last 2 runs have been career bests altough they have come on flat tracks. He's only had 7 chase starts and, won 1 placed in 4, and it's his placed form as a novice that suggests he may be well handicapped, especially when we consider that Henry Daly's horses were badly out of form all last year. He finished mid div in the NH chase last year, maybe didn't get the trip though form of the yard could also have been big factor and he had finished 3rd in a novice handicap chase at the track over 21f behind The Giant Bolster suggesting he does handle the undulations. His jumping has been alot better this year, did fall 2 outings ago but jumped well in the main, and if he continues on his steady progression he could find a fast run race with a stiff finish right up his street.
Any thoughts would be gratefully received and if anyone thinks l have missed another runner out then maybe they want to make a case for their choice.
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The race I still call the "Ritz Club National Hunt Handicap Chase"
Second season chasers best but novices sometimes win - Fork Lightning 2004 as well as Witchita Lineman show it can be done.
Second season chasers best but novices sometimes win - Fork Lightning 2004 as well as Witchita Lineman show it can be done.
Just remembered Dun Doire was a novice as well. So 3 of last 8 were novices. Best wait to see the entries to finalise but Quantitativeeasing is an obvious one for shortlist. Second season chaser, still improving, looked like he might get further when winning valuable and fast run Cheltenham handicap last time. Trainer is do a bit better with stayers these days, used to be fastest way to the poor house I knew of to back Henderson horses when they step up in trip but this horse did run in the Irish National so they clearly believe he stays.
Current rating is outside the range above at 153 but I don't use Official Rating trends when profiling horses, ratings tend to drift upwards over time and that makes hard and fast rules based on small samples a mistake IMO. Actual weight carried is more of a factor in certain races but I can remember good horses winning this with quite big weights and there is no real reason for high weights to do badly over this C&D. Progressive 2nd season horse or good winning novice the most important thing.
Current rating is outside the range above at 153 but I don't use Official Rating trends when profiling horses, ratings tend to drift upwards over time and that makes hard and fast rules based on small samples a mistake IMO. Actual weight carried is more of a factor in certain races but I can remember good horses winning this with quite big weights and there is no real reason for high weights to do badly over this C&D. Progressive 2nd season horse or good winning novice the most important thing.
The form of his festival race is holding up well too thieves, and JP absolutley loves winners at Cheltenham and targets them well.
I've had Knockara Beau in mind for this race for some time and judging from quotes this week it is the likely aim. Connections unhappy that it's been raised 7lbs to 147 since last Saturday's run and so am I! - really don't know what they thought they would gain by running it there. 147 still gives capability of a good run as most course form would suggest he can be 150+ here but 140 would have been oh so nice 
That's the one I had in mind also Rod, although to be fair to connections he picked up nearly 11k for the 3rd at the weekend. He'd need to be 1st or 2nd in this race to earn more than that.
would love to see Quantitativeeasing (sic) run in this - the form of the Spinal Research race is very strong and he may well appreciate the extra distance
Knockara is good and consistent around Cheltenham, but he doesn't look to have anything in hand on a mark of 147. In fact I'd say it is almost exactly right so not good for his chances.
thieves
I agree in essence with your point about not using official ratings as a strong indicator in cutting potential winners down to size, but the Festival handicap stat does stand up to pretty close scrutiny (that one being that lighter weights tend to come to the fore).
Seems to me that these races are simply run harder and faster than any others all year, and that is when the weight difference can become an issue, especially when those at the foot of the handicap are improving. I like Quantitativeasing but think he'll do well not to bump into a few better handicapped runners.
At what I hope might be a big price, I think Wayward Prince could go well if he has dropped to the mid-low 140s. He's certainly disappointed this season but he must have a squeak in a race that will be run to suit. The RSA bunch were no great shakes but he was staying on dourly in that and was beaten such a small distance he must be capable of winning off 144ish. This race often turns into a gruelling stamina fest, so if he is in the mood I would be taking him very seriously.
I agree in essence with your point about not using official ratings as a strong indicator in cutting potential winners down to size, but the Festival handicap stat does stand up to pretty close scrutiny (that one being that lighter weights tend to come to the fore).
Seems to me that these races are simply run harder and faster than any others all year, and that is when the weight difference can become an issue, especially when those at the foot of the handicap are improving. I like Quantitativeasing but think he'll do well not to bump into a few better handicapped runners.
At what I hope might be a big price, I think Wayward Prince could go well if he has dropped to the mid-low 140s. He's certainly disappointed this season but he must have a squeak in a race that will be run to suit. The RSA bunch were no great shakes but he was staying on dourly in that and was beaten such a small distance he must be capable of winning off 144ish. This race often turns into a gruelling stamina fest, so if he is in the mood I would be taking him very seriously.
Strontium, Barnsey re Knockara Beau. He would of been on my shortlist before his run at the weekend put him up 7lb. l still think he is a player for the race but thought the others had a more progressive profile. His Cheltenham record is very good though when running over 3m or more, he's yet to be out of the first 4.
Thieves, Judorik re Quantitativeeasing no horse rated more than 150 has won this race for 29 years so that would put me off this horse. Also l note he is one of the favourites for the Byrne Plate race which is over the C&D he won at earlier in the season. lf he where to run in this race though l think it would be to keep the weights down for Sunnyhill Boy, especailly when you consider that horse was well backed to win the race that Quantitativeeasing won so they must still think he's well handicapped.
Tomdene re Wayward Prince, although you would think the Hennessey, being the strongest 3m handicap of the season, would be a strong pointer to this race it actually has a terrible record for its runners in this race. l don't have the stats to hand but off the top of my head l don't think a Hennessey runner has been placed in this race for the last 15 years let alone won this race. Like l said l don't have the figures to hand so if anyone does maybe they can post them.
Thieves re weights carried to victory in this race. Since 1997 there have been 3 horses carry more than 11st to win this race. Bensalem last year and Flyer's Nap in 1997 carried just 11-2 and the other was Unguided Missile who carried 11-10 the following year in 1998. All other winners have carried less than 11st, so personally l wouldn't be looking too far up the handicap.
Bland82, I can recall almost being put off Tipping Tim in this race some years back because he only had 10-0 and no light weighted horse had won for ages! I decided at the time that the stat made no real sense as I would be backing the horse if it had more weight. If you cannot find a rationale for a stat based on such small samples then it is probably meaningless. Fact is, most horses above 11st are older and more exposed. If a horse is progressive then any racing weight is ok for me. As for using OR's I just cannot have it, they drift too much over time and races such as this one differ quite a bit in class from year to year, this one in particular as it is an alternative to the Gold Cup if the GC looks too strong in certain years.
Quant is one of the favs for the Byrne Plate but he is also one of the favs for this! There is reason to believe that the trip might bring out further progression, which actually makes him a stronger contender for this than for the Byrne where he might look a bit exposed.
Quant is one of the favs for the Byrne Plate but he is also one of the favs for this! There is reason to believe that the trip might bring out further progression, which actually makes him a stronger contender for this than for the Byrne where he might look a bit exposed.
Also re Hennessey just gone shocking renewal re horses running since.
Bland - re Knocakara - point taken and he might be an unfashionable e/w bet as the type to stay on for a place. But it's hard to believe there won't be something better handicapped lurking down the bottom of the weights that will beat him. As you already seem to know, this is a very strong trends race.
Strontium l can certainly see him staying on strongly, probably after getting outpaced as he generally does, it just depends on how many are in front of him at the bottom of the hill as to whether he runs into a place or not. lt will be interesting to see how many Irish runners are entered and what marks they get as the handicapper seems to have been giving them a chance in the last few years.
Re Knockara, have to say I thought 7LB rise was harsh compared to the 5LB Midnight Chase got. 2or3 would have been fair in my book and it could cost him in this race.
He's just gone back to where he was a year ago, before which he had been very consistent.
I appreciate that Stront, however he was a long way behind Midnight Chase in a Hcp at Wetherby over Xmas and if he meets him again he will be worse off. Seems illogical to me.
I agree it is hard to rationalise. I'd say KB is half a stone better at Cheltenham than elsewhere though and he does much of his racing there so that's where he ends up being rated effectively.
Stront, the same can be said of MC though. Anyway it's not our decision is it.
Just seen that Quantitativeeasing has been entered for the National, maybe a pointer towards what his Cheltenham target will be as he still needs a top 4 finish in a 3 mile+ chase to qualify?
Hold on Julio, ante-post favourite for the Haydock Grand National trial on Saturday, will miss the race.
Alan King said: “Haydock was never really amongst the plans – Hold on Julio will either run in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton on Saturday week or wait for the Spinal Injuries Chase at Cheltenham that we won with Bensalem last year.
“We have entered Julio for the National, and the weights for Aintree are released tomorrow, so we will wait and see how he has been assessed before making firm plans.
“If we do decide to aim him at the National it might be worth heading for Kempton as that would give him a bit more time to prepare for Aintree than if we went to the Festival.
“Julio has stopped coughing – that prevented him from running in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster – and is working well again.”
Alan King said: “Haydock was never really amongst the plans – Hold on Julio will either run in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton on Saturday week or wait for the Spinal Injuries Chase at Cheltenham that we won with Bensalem last year.
“We have entered Julio for the National, and the weights for Aintree are released tomorrow, so we will wait and see how he has been assessed before making firm plans.
“If we do decide to aim him at the National it might be worth heading for Kempton as that would give him a bit more time to prepare for Aintree than if we went to the Festival.
“Julio has stopped coughing – that prevented him from running in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster – and is working well again.”
Dont' think Cappa Bleu did his chances any harm although he could be set for a rise in the weights and may of handicapped himself out of this race. He could also bypass it completely and head straight to Aintree. We now know that Hold On Julio is being targeted at this race after been withdrawn from the Racing+ chase at the weekend.
Dont' think Cappa Bleu did his chances any harm although he could be set for a rise in the weights and may of handicapped himself out of this race. He could also bypass it completely and head straight to Aintree. We now know that Hold On Julio is being targeted at this race after been withdrawn from the Racing+ chase at the weekend.
is Quantitativeeasing running in this?
I won't be opposing him wherever he runs and he needs at least 3 miles now. The run in the Spinal research is absolutely top class form and he is going to be hard to beat. I think he can go right to the top, still only had a handful of chases and only just getting his act together - be 170+ at 3 miles plus within 12 months
I won't be opposing him wherever he runs and he needs at least 3 miles now. The run in the Spinal research is absolutely top class form and he is going to be hard to beat. I think he can go right to the top, still only had a handful of chases and only just getting his act together - be 170+ at 3 miles plus within 12 months
Reve De Sivola at a huge price would interest me (48 on here now but not sure if he's running).
I'd also like Quant'easing, more so if McCoy is riding Sunnyhillboy.
I'd also like Quant'easing, more so if McCoy is riding Sunnyhillboy.
Sunnyhillboy laid out for the National, Reve de Sivola needs much further than 3 mile 1 furlong these days
As pointed out above will be running off above 150, so if you think he will be 170+ within 12 months think you better get on! Agree was top form, race fell for him with 2nd and 3rd both making mistakes at crucial time.
Roudoudou Ville the one for Byrne Plate on at 14s, good luck whichever race he runs it.
Roudoudou Ville the one for Byrne Plate on at 14s, good luck whichever race he runs it.
Quantitiveeasing has to finish in the 1st 4 of a 3m chase to qualify for the National so has to go for this
Reve de S is out injured for at least 12 months (according to the OFTS thread).
Stormey if they serious re National dont think it wants a hard race with big weight, before Aintree tbh.
surely they won't go for the National with QE? Pfft, nowhere near enough experience, was a novice last season, doesn't jump well enough... I love the horse but don't see him as a National candidate. Betfair Bowl Grade 2 miles if he wins the William Hill or Punchestown Gold Cup?
JP loves the Festival more than anything though. He won't leave a horse with a decent Cheltenham chance in its box, National or not.
Best bet for this race?
Lay the leader at the end of the first circuit.
Lay the leader at the end of the first circuit.
Thanks for the info on Reve De Sivola - wouldn't have backed it until I was sure it was running but good to know I can rule it out.
QT has been progressive for the last year, loves Cheltenham and may improve again for the step up in trip so although higher than ideal in the weights he looks a very solid e/w bet @ 10/1 (assuming he is definitely running).
Sunnyhillboy has ability and is potentially very well treated if his jumping holds up. Either way I think McManus + Jonjo have a very strong hand.
I'm not sure what to make of Hold On Julio - was impressive in the end at Sandown, and I have great respect for King and Thornton, but not sure a big field round Cheltenham will be ideal, so at the prices he's not for me.
QT has been progressive for the last year, loves Cheltenham and may improve again for the step up in trip so although higher than ideal in the weights he looks a very solid e/w bet @ 10/1 (assuming he is definitely running).
Sunnyhillboy has ability and is potentially very well treated if his jumping holds up. Either way I think McManus + Jonjo have a very strong hand.
I'm not sure what to make of Hold On Julio - was impressive in the end at Sandown, and I have great respect for King and Thornton, but not sure a big field round Cheltenham will be ideal, so at the prices he's not for me.
Thats what Henderson said last week.
Something like- He still isnt qualified for the National so will have to finish in the 1st 4 at Cheltenham.
I took that to mean will go for this race
Something like- He still isnt qualified for the National so will have to finish in the 1st 4 at Cheltenham.
I took that to mean will go for this race
they don't need me to tell them that 7yo QE does not have what it takes to run in the Grand National - sure they will give it a miss
To be honest im not interested in his National prospects just thinking bout Chelt and the fact theyve entered him for the National backed up by Hendersons comments bout still having to qualify lead me to think theyre heading for the 3m race
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