Cheltenham Festival
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the 2 mile queen mother champion chase at chelters, the ultimate test for the crack speedsters . has been won by some great horses and the defending champion sizing europe is favourite to win it again after a very good win in the tingle creek at sandown he will take all the beating winner of the arkle the year before he seems as good as ever and his trainer should have him spot on for the festival .
also we have big zeb winner of the 2010 running there is not much between the 2 and he is a worthy 2nd fav and his past jumping problems seem well behind him ,both should go well but are 10 and 11 respectivly now and it could be time for a new kid on the block to stake his claim .........step forward finians rainbow 2nd in last years arkle and 2nd to somersby in the victor chandler chase at ascot just getting run out of it close home after travelling and jumping well ,he will be ridden by barry gerahty and he has a progressive profile and open to lots more improvement, sure some may say that beating somersby is not champion chase winning form but somersby has decent form and was 2nd to sizing btn about 2lths in an arkle and he is no slouch having run master minded close on a few occaisions .
i dont think sizing will be allowed an easy lead and can see this fella close up prominent and following in sizings slipstream whether he has the class to beat sizing euro and big zeb we will have to wait and see but at around 8 on here im willing to chance it also surely gerahty will know the key to beating big zeb .and i will be having a decent each way wager .......finians rainbow 2pts each way will do for for me. insight and input welcolm .
also we have big zeb winner of the 2010 running there is not much between the 2 and he is a worthy 2nd fav and his past jumping problems seem well behind him ,both should go well but are 10 and 11 respectivly now and it could be time for a new kid on the block to stake his claim .........step forward finians rainbow 2nd in last years arkle and 2nd to somersby in the victor chandler chase at ascot just getting run out of it close home after travelling and jumping well ,he will be ridden by barry gerahty and he has a progressive profile and open to lots more improvement, sure some may say that beating somersby is not champion chase winning form but somersby has decent form and was 2nd to sizing btn about 2lths in an arkle and he is no slouch having run master minded close on a few occaisions .
i dont think sizing will be allowed an easy lead and can see this fella close up prominent and following in sizings slipstream whether he has the class to beat sizing euro and big zeb we will have to wait and see but at around 8 on here im willing to chance it also surely gerahty will know the key to beating big zeb .and i will be having a decent each way wager .......finians rainbow 2pts each way will do for for me. insight and input welcolm .
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I can see an each way bet yielding a nice little profit BUT I just can't see it winning. It's one of those horses that is pretty reliable to run it's race but it doesn't look good enough to me to beat the big two. Cracking each way bet at 6-1 or more though - especially as something may happen to one of the Irish two in the Tied Cottage. The race is very shallow and I'd take 6-4 on the first three all day at the moment.
6/4 on the first 3 dutched?Don't think Maths was ur best subject at school
It's evens on first 2 in the betting dutched!!
It's evens on first 2 in the betting dutched!!
oops ur saying 6/4 to place which it isn't imo
100 ew @ 6s cost 200
if placed returns 250 if ya fet 1/4 odds
100 ew @ 6s cost 200
if placed returns 250 if ya fet 1/4 odds
dj - never mind "best subject at school", did you even go to school fella ?! You can chuck the win away on here and be left with just the the 6/4 place. Admittedly you'd need to lay the 6-1 off at 8 at the moment which would effectively reduce your return to 11/8 (ignoring commission) on the place. But given the market for likely runners is underround by about 15% on here at the moment I'd have thought that laying FR off at 7 before the race is pretty likely and so 6/4 first three will be achievable.
"Beating Somersby" might be Champion Chase form but losing to Somersby probably isn't! Somersby was beaten less than a length in SE's Arkle by the way. Was 2L at the last but he closed pretty strongly up the hill. Which begs the question, why not back Somersby? He looks sure to stay on up the hill better than the horse he has already beaten?
I sure did FELLA
Don't see where ur getting a 15 % underound on likely runners considering the first 5 in the betting are already betting to 73 % overround??????
Don't see where ur getting a 15 % underound on likely runners considering the first 5 in the betting are already betting to 73 % overround??????
thieves somersby was interesting me but he is almost sure to go ryanair see my hen knight anyone thread .
DJ (Fella):
Here's my idea of the current betfair prices on what looks like the runners to me......
Siz E 3.3
Big Z 5.25
Finians 7.75
Somersby 17
Wishfull T 23
Hold Fast 27
Realt D 5.89 32
Kauto Stone 36
Forpady 8.02 50
Oiseau 14.90 120
I'm So Lucky 150
As you did do maths at school you will see this is 85.5%.
Factor in the likely no shows of Somersby, Realt Dubh and Kauto Stone and it's not hard to envisage a fair amount of shortening of the remaining runners.
Here's my idea of the current betfair prices on what looks like the runners to me......
Siz E 3.3
Big Z 5.25
Finians 7.75
Somersby 17
Wishfull T 23
Hold Fast 27
Realt D 5.89 32
Kauto Stone 36
Forpady 8.02 50
Oiseau 14.90 120
I'm So Lucky 150
As you did do maths at school you will see this is 85.5%.
Factor in the likely no shows of Somersby, Realt Dubh and Kauto Stone and it's not hard to envisage a fair amount of shortening of the remaining runners.
* You can ignore the 5.89, 8.02 and 14.9 figures (they are part of my workings on the spreadsheet I've copied and pasted from) - they will only confuse matters :)
Forpady is also likley to run in the Ryanair.
Wishful may well also, epsecially now Captain Chris is a doubt for everything. Oiseau could well end up in the Grand Annual.
Wishful may well also, epsecially now Captain Chris is a doubt for everything. Oiseau could well end up in the Grand Annual.
Fair play Martin
I am actually studying Maths @ uni-got results today!
Was only winding u up kinda!!
I like ur attitude tho-I think evens on the first 2 dutched is a better bet??
I am actually studying Maths @ uni-got results today!
Was only winding u up kinda!!I like ur attitude tho-I think evens on the first 2 dutched is a better bet??
No worries Deej. Can you beat a 2:1 (Hons natch)from such an esteemed institute as Leicester Poly?!
I would prefer to include FR and get a little better than 1-2 personally.
When you consider that Hold Fast is also more than likely going to skip the race, there really is nothing much left. Daft as backing 9-4 shots each way may seem, I'm hammering SE each way at 9-4 too. I like the win price and better than 1-2 on it being in the first three is right up my street too.
Hope you did well in your results.
I would prefer to include FR and get a little better than 1-2 personally.
When you consider that Hold Fast is also more than likely going to skip the race, there really is nothing much left. Daft as backing 9-4 shots each way may seem, I'm hammering SE each way at 9-4 too. I like the win price and better than 1-2 on it being in the first three is right up my street too.
Hope you did well in your results.
this horse looks a short runner to my eye and is more likely to be unplaced than win
I suggest you watch last years' QMCC - SE virtually sprinted up the hill and he does not have to have a soft lead at all and there is no comparison between his form and FR getting beat by Captain Chris and Sommersby
I suggest you watch last years' QMCC - SE virtually sprinted up the hill and he does not have to have a soft lead at all and there is no comparison between his form and FR getting beat by Captain Chris and Sommersby
Yup 83% average
Martin-I like ur style of betting, like backing 9/4 shots e.w
I had my largest ever bet last year on grans crus to be placed(e.w on enhanced odds in da morning,layed win back on here).
1/2 on quevega and vlv coupled for mares race this year,I think weld will put the run down the other day down to the ground and still run his mare in champion!
Martin-I like ur style of betting, like backing 9/4 shots e.w
I had my largest ever bet last year on grans crus to be placed(e.w on enhanced odds in da morning,layed win back on here).
1/2 on quevega and vlv coupled for mares race this year,I think weld will put the run down the other day down to the ground and still run his mare in champion!
Stront,
Where did you see Forpady is likely for Ryanair please?
Where did you see Forpady is likely for Ryanair please?
Well done. That's five sixths of the way to perfection :)
I think Unaccompanied is skipping Cheltenham all together based on his trainer's comments in today's Post.
I'm getting stuck into the 4-1 ew on VLV and also backing Quevega to win. The logic is that if VLV doesn't run the 5-4 on Quevega will be massive compensation (4-9 on the day if no VLV?) and if VLV does run then you are sitting on two very nice bets.
I think Unaccompanied is skipping Cheltenham all together based on his trainer's comments in today's Post.
I'm getting stuck into the 4-1 ew on VLV and also backing Quevega to win. The logic is that if VLV doesn't run the 5-4 on Quevega will be massive compensation (4-9 on the day if no VLV?) and if VLV does run then you are sitting on two very nice bets.
A bit behind with the news,Weld says his mare more than likely won't run at all in chelters!!
1/2-outstanding value
1/2-outstanding value
It's been suggested publically "Cooper also suggested that Forpadydeplasterer will be aimed at the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March, but will also be given an entry in the Queen Mother Champion Chase."
see where you are comeing from judor but these 2 fellas are 10 and 11 and have got to be more vulnerable than the last few years and 1 or both are running on heavy ground on sunday not saying they will be subjected to punishing races but who knows !just think it may be time for a young up and comer and at the prices this will do each way .
not saying he is going to win but he may improve a good bit and put it up to the big 2 . a poster has put up on here a good word from b. gerahty and hendo regarding his chances . as for short runner he may prove to be but i dont think so to me he has just been a little unlucky ,plus they were talking of him possibly going gold cup route earlier so they also think 2 miles is no problem .
not saying he is going to win but he may improve a good bit and put it up to the big 2 . a poster has put up on here a good word from b. gerahty and hendo regarding his chances . as for short runner he may prove to be but i dont think so to me he has just been a little unlucky ,plus they were talking of him possibly going gold cup route earlier so they also think 2 miles is no problem .
FWIW if I owned FPTP I would go QMCC to try to pick up some cheap place money. The Ryanair looks very competitive this year, and if we get a faller then a top three finish in the QMCC isn't beyond the realm.
But probably no better than that Martin. He doesn't have the pace for 2 m anymore but he runs Cheltenham very well and has a fine Festival record. Well worth trying over the longer trip imo.
FW - I've read that about Somersby but not convinced she won't change her mind. His form over 2m is so much better than over further and the Ryanair looks quite a hot race, whereas the QM could be lacking in depth, especially if either of the big 2 start to show their age...
well thieves if she does run somersby i can always back him as well each way ,.2 decent chances against the big 2.
just been looking at the ante post prices for this race and it could really cut up drastically ....somersby, realt dubh , blazing tempo ,wishfull think , for pady ,kauto stone and a few others could go for the (ryanaire )al ferof peddlers ect,should keep to the novice route and a good few of the others could go for the handicaps . single figuer field distinct possibility !
anyone have any idea whether this fella is going to aintree or punchestown or both ! hope a good few of you were on !
"is it going to aintree or punchestown"...any bloody excuse to bump it up!!!
duffy i get plenty of abuse if i tip up a loser ,so its nice to get 1 or 2 right ,and i dont get much chance to blow my own trumpet nowadays
Lucky winner. An illegitimate champion if ever there was one
lucky maybee! but you cant say for sure which of the 2 would have won if they both jumped the fence, anything could have happened. and the history books will say, champion chase 2012 winner. finians rainbow , i belive luck evens itself out over the course of a season . swings and roundabouts !
Thought he won the race fair and square to be honest,both horses were affected by the last fence fiasco,and one not worse than the other imo.No reason to think FR would not have jumped the last as well as the others he jumped.
Good winner imo.
Just wished i had shared your faith before the race Foyles.
Good winner imo.
Just wished i had shared your faith before the race Foyles.
What has been completely overlooked in all this is the mistake that sizing made at what would have been the 3rd last, that is where he lost the race, de bromhead admits himself that sizing gallops and jumps his way to victory needing to get into that strong rhythm that he is able to maintain and if that is compromised he is vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot at the end of the race.
That mistake came just as sizing was beginning to turn the screw and it completely knocked him out of his rhythm and he was faced with having to build it again at a time of the race when it way too late to be able to shake off the eventual winner....everyone is too busy talking about the last fence but without that bad mistake i reckon the race would have been over.
That mistake came just as sizing was beginning to turn the screw and it completely knocked him out of his rhythm and he was faced with having to build it again at a time of the race when it way too late to be able to shake off the eventual winner....everyone is too busy talking about the last fence but without that bad mistake i reckon the race would have been over.
^ That was definitely a key moment but I still think the winner was a good winner in the end and thoroughly deserves to be hailed as the top two-miler.
I freely admit that I have been trumpeting Finian's all winter and may have a biased view but feel people are still clinging to their rigid pre-race beliefs in looking for reasons as to why Sizing Europe was unlucky in defeat. Finian's has always looked as though he has the requisite class to be a mid-170s horse and he finally got the true test he needs at two miles (without having to make it himself). He is a superb jumper, travels well, and - shock horror - actually sees out the trip very well, which a few of his supporters have been saying for months.
I think he was a thoroughly impressive, fair winner.
I freely admit that I have been trumpeting Finian's all winter and may have a biased view but feel people are still clinging to their rigid pre-race beliefs in looking for reasons as to why Sizing Europe was unlucky in defeat. Finian's has always looked as though he has the requisite class to be a mid-170s horse and he finally got the true test he needs at two miles (without having to make it himself). He is a superb jumper, travels well, and - shock horror - actually sees out the trip very well, which a few of his supporters have been saying for months.
I think he was a thoroughly impressive, fair winner.
IMO Theres little doubt in my mind that if they'd jumped the last then Finians Rainbow would have won by a
bigger distance and would have been an unlucky loser had he lost.
He's a worthy Champion Chaser and on the day a better 2m chaser than Sizing europe.
bigger distance and would have been an unlucky loser had he lost.
He's a worthy Champion Chaser and on the day a better 2m chaser than Sizing europe.
Not a chance, SZ had is head yanked off him in order to swerve the last fence. Cost him valuable momentum and energy and clearly cost him the race too imo. No question Geraghty had it much easier on FR allowing him to steal the race.
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