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tom segal puts up his rsa chase ante poster pick next week , by thinking outside the box and looking at it in a similar way to the great man! lets see if we can beat him to it.
well we know hes going to go for decently priced so that and the uncertainty of exactly which race he is targeting rules out grands crus . bobs worth is a bit too short and judging by the vibes from the henderson camp ( hendo saying hes left bobs worth in hurdles races at festival ) dosent inspire confidence .
join together is a fair price but wonder if he will be quite good enough !
nicholls silviniaco conte has a progresive profile and was a classy hurdler but will he make the gig ? heard he was aimed at aintree or punchestown or both .
last instalment is interesting but he is a best priced 8/1 and i cant see tom putting up him although he is improvng fast and jumps well .
sir deschamps won well in ireland and has a cracking wins to runs record and is a decent price at 12s but we dont know for certain if this is his target .
the most likeley one imo is first leiutenant from the mouse morris stable who has plenty of chasing expieince and has the festival form winning the neptune last year (form of race worked out well ) he has only 2 lengths to make up on last instalment and can go close atb the prices 16s looks too big good luck and insight and input welcolm
well we know hes going to go for decently priced so that and the uncertainty of exactly which race he is targeting rules out grands crus . bobs worth is a bit too short and judging by the vibes from the henderson camp ( hendo saying hes left bobs worth in hurdles races at festival ) dosent inspire confidence .
join together is a fair price but wonder if he will be quite good enough !
nicholls silviniaco conte has a progresive profile and was a classy hurdler but will he make the gig ? heard he was aimed at aintree or punchestown or both .
last instalment is interesting but he is a best priced 8/1 and i cant see tom putting up him although he is improvng fast and jumps well .
sir deschamps won well in ireland and has a cracking wins to runs record and is a decent price at 12s but we dont know for certain if this is his target .
the most likeley one imo is first leiutenant from the mouse morris stable who has plenty of chasing expieince and has the festival form winning the neptune last year (form of race worked out well ) he has only 2 lengths to make up on last instalment and can go close atb the prices 16s looks too big good luck and insight and input welcolm
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6 lengths to make up on Last Instalment not 2. Could well be the PW though.
D Russel has picked this twice over Bog Warrior and Last Installment so he will more than likely be on this if it runs in RSA will be a hell of a lot better on good ground ie:should find the jumping department a lot easier
Was good ground when Last Instalment stuffed him. Cannot see why he should reverse it but Segal may well use the price and festival experience to justify it.
yes sorry thieves all this is from memory only so some details may not be exact ,sorry for being a bit brief with the write up (missus hassling me for use of computer fecking facebook or sumthing ) ,yeah fist liutenant not got much ground to make up with last instalment ,he made a mistake at the 2nd last and also was slightly hampered on the bend about 4 out and li got first run on him ,also has vital chase expierience a good few of the last 5 winners of the r.sa had at least 4 chase runs ,last year jessies dream and bostons angel had 4 or more chase runs result .bostons 1st jess dream 2nd .year before ,weapons amnesty won 1 of a few with 4 or more chase runs , so expierience a big factor ........first leiutenant 16s 1 pt each way.good luck .
Maybe ACE HIGH. Not seen since beating Duke of Lucca (with lots of other winners since) behind at Chepstow in October. Join Together fell but IMO no certainty to catch Ace High that day. Big price.
I dont know if theres a difference in winter or spring good ground ie: more moisture/less heat or ahorse likes the sun on its back,i backed both Bog warrior and Last instalment when they beat first Leiu but the reason Davy rode it twice must mean he thinks its better than shown
yeah i think this horse is much better than he has shown so far over fences and mouse gave him a positive write up (its on the how far does f.liutenant thread on here )and there (hopefully) is a lot more to come got on at 20s e.way .about a month ago so fingers crossed .
Think he is certain to pick FL at 16/1 tbh. The price does stand out more than most and you can make a reasonably strong case for the horse. Personally think it will be hard to reverse form with Last Instalment but Segal did tip FL in the Neptune last season so we'll see ..
It wouldn't surprise me if he picked FL as it would follow most of his reasoning with his other picks this year. FL never won beyond 2m5f. Last time brushed aside by Last Instalment and a nk in front of Allee Garde, since beaten at odds on in a grade 2. Previously FL PU(Maybe being harsh as bad mistake). Before this FL beat Stephanie Kate 3/4l who was PU in a hcp off a rating of 123. Previous to this beaten by De Valira rated 130.
Can't think why he'd pick anything else????
Can't think why he'd pick anything else????
He'll surely pick FL, get on now before the price crash
First Leiutenant will more than likely be his selection,though at the current prices i wouldn't be suprised if he were to take a speculative shot at Mossley.Although he has not looked the most natural jumper amongst the entries he ran resonably well behind Join Together at Cheltenham on only his second start this season and was good enough to finish just over two lengths behind Bobs Worth in last years Albert Bartlett.His record at Cheltenham reads 122 over hurdles and fences so he obviously goes well at the course and there may be worse 33-1 shots???
based on some of Tom's earlier picks if I was a bookie i'd lengthen whoever he chooses not shorten it.
How about Berties Dream? I know it was said earlier he was unlikley to run, but he's shortened a lot on here in the last week or so perhaps suggesting a change of mind?
Nothing Master tongue in cheek me thinks,he already cursed 3 of Hobbs team.
First Lieutenant shortening up in places this Monday morning. Maybe Tom is going to tip him up after all. I've a decent bet on 20's with Ladbrokes, early January. Mouse Morris has a great record getting one ready at cheltenham, War of Attrition, Venalmer, China Rock ( unlucky ). The horse ticks a lot of the stats boxes but not all of them, he may not need to.
Last Instalment also so maybe some guessing going on. I prefer Last Instalment but First Lieutenant was more of Tom's price target.
Some major insider dealing going on at the Post if it's First Lieutenant....shortened with 12 bookies on Oddscheckr this am (c0ral 14>9) 
Maybe someone else has got in first? Paul Jones?
Activity with the bookies on Last Instalment could be people checking out FL's form? Most of it on here is me tbh locking in at 7/1 net in case GC goes the CGC route. Cannot get on at 8s, Boils declined the transaction, my max with lads is £2, 365 £2.50, will £0.00 and Vic closed my account a while back! Toying with a trip into town to see what I can get on in the shops...
Activity with the bookies on Last Instalment could be people checking out FL's form? Most of it on here is me tbh locking in at 7/1 net in case GC goes the CGC route. Cannot get on at 8s, Boils declined the transaction, my max with lads is £2, 365 £2.50, will £0.00 and Vic closed my account a while back! Toying with a trip into town to see what I can get on in the shops...
l'm out of the country at the moment guys so could some post what is selection is in the morning please so l can get on at his advised price at 0830 GMT tomorrow.
Thanks in advance
Thanks in advance
Just noticed Sirs Des Champs has shortened with several bookies for the Jewson, so maybe it's just a case if Gigginstown having decided who's going where.
As discussed in other threads, there are likely to be quite a few shortened during the day. Sometimes they are Pricewise, soemtimes not.
any news of who hes tipping tommorow for this race !
moves for a few but first liuetenant down to 10.5 on here now !
Given GC is not a certain runner and 4 of the next 6 in the betting are all in the same ownership there has to be value outside the top 6 or 7 in the betting. LAMBRO would seem the obvious one on form and there has been money for it today too (as there has been most of the fancied runners)
Taking a HUGE leap of faith by backing First Lieutenant.
Has no real form whatsoever over fences - heavily relying on the fact he won at Chelt last year so he might improve a lot for C&D.
8's - 10's is a ridiculous price imo.
Has no real form whatsoever over fences - heavily relying on the fact he won at Chelt last year so he might improve a lot for C&D.
8's - 10's is a ridiculous price imo.
8-10's is a ridiculous price..the people with any cop on and are not sheep got on at 20's which is a fair price for what he's done and capable of.
yep malc was on weeks ago at 20s ,am sure a lot of others were , before he tips up a cheltenham race ante post i always back my fancy a few days before he publishes his tip !
At least you can lay some off having got 20s? Absurd price now given his form with Last Instalment all be it on soft ground.
Last Instalment beat First Lieutenant on good ground stevo.
Obvious it would be FL. The 20's & 16/1 stood out like a sore thumb in relation to what he did last season.
The horse just need to improve his jumping now and reverse form with Last Instalment.
Which race is Segal tipping next week so we can get cracking ..
The horse just need to improve his jumping now and reverse form with Last Instalment.
Which race is Segal tipping next week so we can get cracking ..
He's gone for Silvianaco Conti! Thought Nicholls said it was a doubtful runner!
I personally wouldn't go near him at 20's either.
I can see why people may like him, but his form this year has been very poor imo. He's being priced up on what he achieved as a novice hurdler and not as a novice chaser.
I may look foolish on the day, but theres a few that have a lot better form in the book this year
I can see why people may like him, but his form this year has been very poor imo. He's being priced up on what he achieved as a novice hurdler and not as a novice chaser.
I may look foolish on the day, but theres a few that have a lot better form in the book this year
So why is everyone talking about FL on here ?
Segal has tipped Silviniaco ? Unbelievable,imo. Not even a certain runner.
Segal has tipped Silviniaco ? Unbelievable,imo. Not even a certain runner.
Surprised to see that Silviano Conti is the selection, Nicholls has always stated Aintree was his target. Has Nicholls changed his mind?
he has tipped sivino conti 1 pt win (headline tip) and first leiutenant 1pt win
Silviniaco Conti won't run at Cheltenham, First Lieutenant can't jump! Next...
So what will he tip for Supreme? My guess would be one or two from Trifolium (16s), Vulcanite (25s) or Galileos Choice (14s but less likely given price) with an honorable mention for Prospect Wells (33s) using the steps to freedom formline.
Just watched the Leopardstown race again. I know some people are thinking Weapons Amnesty - novice winner at Cheltenham, 2nd in same race at Leopardstown, but WA was only beaten a sh hd by Pandorama. FL didn't even see which way LI went and though FL finished well, LI certainly wasn't stopping. The ground was genuinely good based on the race times so no reason to think the ground was a factor. Just don't get it. SC, if he ran, has to be dangerous, stamina queries not withstanding. Solid 2nd in a fast run Feltham. But seems unlikely to run?
No idea what he would pick for the Supreme, you can make a case for 5 or 6 horses at the prices.
Thieves time was 34.4 seconds slow at Leopardstown re Last Instalment/FL.
Cant see 2nd turning tables at Festival,rather be on Last Instalment, saying that if Grand Crus show in this will take all beating,if they get tactics correct,best jumper in field.
Have Crus 6s in double with Fly 9/4 so kiss of death,saver on Bobs Worth 10s who could be the improver will find out at Ascot in Reynoldstown Feb 18th.
Cant see 2nd turning tables at Festival,rather be on Last Instalment, saying that if Grand Crus show in this will take all beating,if they get tactics correct,best jumper in field.
Have Crus 6s in double with Fly 9/4 so kiss of death,saver on Bobs Worth 10s who could be the improver will find out at Ascot in Reynoldstown Feb 18th.
He seems to have lost the plot this year. Nicholls has said numerous times that SC is skipping Cheltenham in favour of Aintree. Unless he's gone back on that recently, but I haven't heard anything suggesting that. We all knew he would go FL. Fits in with the rest of this years tips: no form this season, but ran well at Chelts last year.
Nicholls quote re Conti,im not sure i want to take on Grand Crus again with Silviniaco Conti.If Grand Crus ran we might keep him fresh for Aintree.
His stablemate is rated 3 lbs superior, not sure how though.
His stablemate is rated 3 lbs superior, not sure how though.
stevo - LI's win was 11.6s quicker than standard according to Raceform! Was 3.1 seconds quicker than the Lexus on the same card, out of interest.
Stafford re Post today re Conti,as pointed out above.
Thieves just checked times are correct as stated,Racing Post times by the way.
Thieves just checked times are correct as stated,Racing Post times by the way.
re LI's Leopardstown time. They are calculated very differently but RP's standards look to be completely cocked to me. Raceform speed ratings are about 100 times better than the RP's and it is partly due to the way they are calculated but even more so due to lack of recalculation of standard times. According to the RP every race beyond 19f at the 3 day Leopardstown meeting was run at a crawl!
Just to put in perspective, the 3m chases Stopwatch has rated at 61 Last Intention, 48 Synschronised and 15 Glan Garry (the following day). They didn't go that fast in the Lexus but I'm sure they didn't get off and lead them round!
The 3m hurdles were equally cocked, with the Pertemps winner awarded a mighty 34 and VLV 79! I'm guessing there has been a re-configuration or re-measurement at some stage that the RP clowns have missed.
Just to put in perspective, the 3m chases Stopwatch has rated at 61 Last Intention, 48 Synschronised and 15 Glan Garry (the following day). They didn't go that fast in the Lexus but I'm sure they didn't get off and lead them round!
The 3m hurdles were equally cocked, with the Pertemps winner awarded a mighty 34 and VLV 79! I'm guessing there has been a re-configuration or re-measurement at some stage that the RP clowns have missed.
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