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formboy
27 Jan 12 12:31
Joined:
Date Joined: 24 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 1,094 | Blogger: formboy's blog
Having read his reasoning for running in the Gold cup in todays Racing Post as well as peviously, I can only conclude that his argument is illogical.

One of the reasons for not staying hurdling was the presence of Big Bucks.  Now they may have gone chasing anyway but over hurdles he was rated around five pound lower(flattered) according to official ratings.  Yet he currently has over twenty pound to find with the front two in the Gold Cup market!
However, if he lined up for the RSA he would be the highest rated horse.  Surely having been runners up last year a win at the festival would mean a lot?!

Now Mr Stanley claims the RSA is a brutal race for novices, yet his argument does not stack up in favour of the Gold Cup.  According to him the stronger pace in a Gold Cup (far from certain) would suit the horse better, which is also run over a longer trip against superior horses.  Yet somehow he feels this more demanding contest would not be as 'brutal'for a novice compared to the RSA.

He claims he could run in the RSA and finish third, which if he did would mean he would do well to finish in the first half dozen in the Gold Cup.

To prove his point about the RSA being a tough race he mentions Long Run getting beat in the RSA.  Does Mr Stanley really think had Long Run contested that years Gold Cup against better horses he would've fared any better??
Long Run has improved greatly since then as it was still acclimatizing to British racing, as on his next run the following season he was beat in a handicap of just 158.
The fact that Long Run was able to win the Gold Cup the following season proves that the RSA is not a 'brutal' race.
Certainly far less then a Gold Cup run at a stronger pace over a longer trip against superior opposition!!!!??

At the end of day its Grand Crus owners that are the ones entitled to run where they choose.
But the choice should be made for the right reasons.
Pause Switch to Standard View Roger Stanley - Grands cru part owner
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Report rogerthebutler January 27, 2012 12:47 PM GMT
The more I look at this horse, the way he is being campaigned and the utterances of his connections, I think there is a lot of truth in what they are saying.

They haven't got a scooby what to do with GC. They haven't made a decsion on what racr to run him in at the Festival or beforehand (or indeed whether to run him beforehand at all).

They are all basically, pi$$ing in the wind, and until the horse actually lines up for it's next race - not declared at the 5 day or overnight stage or 'is confirmed by the owners or one of the Pipe's that the target is to be whatever'  but is actually plodding round the paddock prior to the off - then I'll remain a skeptic.
Report sintonian January 27, 2012 1:28 PM GMT
JEWSON - NAP. Silly
Report thedemps January 27, 2012 1:47 PM GMT
I wont be betting ante post in the RSA again.  I have always tended to back the most likely winner of the following year's GC but in practice the Arkle is proving to be the better trial in that respect.  If he were my horse I would be seriously considering running him against older horses but I would be running him in the Argento/Denman then at Aintree and bypassing the festival altogether.
Report formboy January 29, 2012 9:39 AM GMT
Ante Post betting can be tricky these days!
Especially Cheltenham.
Report neill d January 30, 2012 5:01 PM GMT
Chase ratings are inflated compared to hurdlers imo, BB is rated in the 170's as is HF and I wouldn't agree that KS or LR are 10 pounds better at chasing than these boys are at hurdling.
Report strontium January 30, 2012 5:37 PM GMT
I treat them as different scales which should not be directly compared.

It's a shame the offical handicapper doesn't - there'd be a few problems solved if horses had to run in 3 novice chases (or win one) to qualify for a chase mark.
Report formboy January 31, 2012 6:12 PM GMT
That may be so.  The point is he still has a fair bit to find to close the gap with the big 2 and Mr Stanleys argument doesn't stack up.
Report strontium January 31, 2012 6:19 PM GMT
I agree with you formboy and your OP is perfectly reasonable - I think they'd be bokers to run Grands Crus in the Gold Cup this season.
Report harchibald January 31, 2012 9:37 PM GMT
rogerthebutler - yeah that's right, David Pipe has absolutely no idea whatsoever about this horse and really wouldn't have a clue, no .. of course not.

Pathetic statement beggars belief.

I think the fact they've not said anything about his target tells those who know all they need to know. That's all. If you cannot work this one out then you truly shouldn't even be involved in this game.

Consistently suprises me just how much people are willing to take a view with no knowledge whatsoever, and worse still also disrespect one of the greatest national hunt trainers there is whose Father is possibly THE GREATEST national hunt trainer who has ever lived by saying the guy has 'no clue'.

Truly pathetic.
Report tomdeane January 31, 2012 10:00 PM GMT
I think it's a lot easier to read between the lines on this one than most people are making out.

I think it's a clear case of Pipe not wanting to go for the Gold Cup but the owner wanting to. They are not committing either way while this standoff is resolved, and I suspect, quite rightly, a huge amount hinges on whether Kauto Star and Long Run make it to the Gold Cup. If they do, I'm sure Pipe will win and it'll be the RSA. If one or both of those two miss the big one, I suspect Stanley will get his wish and Grands Crus will run in the Gold Cup.

As a final point, this horse is a big strong, enthusiastic, and battle-hardened beast. I very much doubt that either the RSA or Gold Cup will bottom him, but the RSA is likely to be easier to win.
Report Can't Catch Me January 31, 2012 10:05 PM GMT
Absolutely spot on imo Tom.
Report marychain1 January 31, 2012 10:06 PM GMT
He will almost certainly go for the RSA imo. I'd be astonished to see it lining up for the Gold Cup.
Report rogerthebutler February 1, 2012 12:47 AM GMT
Harchi

I'm disrespecting no one. The Pipe family record stands comparisom with any other modern trainer.

Can we get past the bile and agree the stable is a gambling stable?

Can we also agree the horse is currently favourite for the RSA and third favourite for the Gold Cup. There has been very little fluctuation in these positions in recent weeks. Hardly what you'd expect from those in the know at Pond House.

Seems to me like they're still making their minds up and whilst yes, the RSA now looks ike the prefered option, there still appears to be a power-struggle going on amongst connections regarding Grands Crus festival target and even his next race.

...and as I've said elsewhere, you won't get a straight answer from them if their lives depended on it.

This does not make them bad trainers.
Report harchibald February 1, 2012 7:21 PM GMT
Rog - there is no way that Roger Stanley has any view at odds with David Pipe's. I've spent time with each of them and their relationship simply is not like this. It's always amazing how much and to what degree people speculate.

Drifts in both the RSA and CGC market today for Grand Crus on Betfair are interesting but I've a proven track record in my relationship with Pipe horses and I genuinely believe you will see Grand Crus line up for the Gold Cup. I have a stack at 8/1 NRNB. If you have the minerals get the fancy prices without NRNB.

I can never say never but my (informed to a degree) views and my past successful experience with this stable suggests Grand Crus will run in the Gold Cup.

Interesting preview on RacingUK's half term report yesterday though - they barely mentioned him if at all.
Report Murphys Stroke February 1, 2012 7:39 PM GMT
Were you watching the same programme Hari.Neesom and Dixon both said they would go for the RSA and that he would be totally bombproof if he did.In fact Neesom was positivley gushing about the horse.
Report OnTheSnaff February 2, 2012 7:58 PM GMT
josh apiafi @joshapiafi  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
No definitive Y/N fr Rodger on Grand Crus, but if I was a betting man(and I've been known to have a dabble) I'd say Gold Cup is a solid fav!
Report ACStafford February 3, 2012 2:40 PM GMT
Totally agree with the OP. They'd be crazy to go for the Gold Cup without taking on some of the older horses in an easier field first. The Argento would have been the perfect chance to test the water, but the questionable decision to skip this race surely means the RSA is the only real choice.
Report Desmond Orchard February 3, 2012 3:24 PM GMT
I've always been of the view that novices should stick to their own division, as has been highlighted already, it rarely turns out well otherwise. But, I'm having mixed feelings about this one. It could be that this year represents GCs best chance to win a Gold Cup, I know, I know, bare with me.

We're all agreed that this years novices are a tidy looking bunch, the RSA is a warm looking race even without GC participating and few here will disagree that a tool like Bobs Worth seems destined for the very top (I've a sneaky feeling that Mossley could make up into something very decent too). Add into that mix potentially the hottest Arkle many of us can remember, of that bunch only Sprinter Sacre seems destined to stay at 2 miles next season, with Al Ferof, Cue Card and Peddlers all likely to be seen to better effect over further. Whilst over in Ireland Bog Warrior and that Flemen-summat look likely sorts.

Whereas, last years novices have not exactly set the world alight. Usually, when looking for the winner of the GC, you would do well to pick one having it's first run in the race. However, with last years novices unlikely to throw up a Gold Cup winning performance, we're left with the two market leaders. One of which is 12 and has come down in the race before (please, not again), the other a dodgy jumper with an amateur up. Don't get me wrong, I would expect that the winner will be one or the other, but if GC were mine I would be giving serious consideration to pitching him in. I doubt it would ruin his chances for next year, he could very well go and win it and if he isn't gonna stay the Gold Cup trip, I'm not sure he would've won the RSA anyway.

I've not backed it, but do declare an interest as I've backed 2 others in the RSA. Nonetheless, I doubt I've much sway at Pond House, so it ain't pocket talk  Silly
Report strontium February 3, 2012 3:42 PM GMT
You make a fair arguement Desmond. In truth we don't know how good this year's novices are though. Every year we think they're great because the best look great when running against other (inferior) novices. Sometimes that translates into very good seniors (the 2010 RSA for example). Sometimes it does not (the 2011 RSA). We won't know until they start running in open competition. The only yardstick we've had so far is that the 3rd favourite for the Arkle got stuffed by Somersby, so the jury is still very much out for me.

As for Grands Crus, one can make a case that he's not even the best of the 3 m novices. He won the Feltham by a diminishing 2 l beating Silvianco Conti. The latter was almost stopped by clattering the fence two or three out. GC may not have fully seen out the trip. Before that, GC narrowly beat Sonofvic who didn't jump well that day and had a horror show in its next race, so much so it's gone back hurdling. There are a number of other 3 m novices with decent form in the book - not least Join Together and Last Instalment. There are also fairly unexposed horses lurking, with good Festival form (Mossley, Berties Dream).

Grands Crus could turn out to be the best of them. He could turn out to be anything. But at this stage, he's not bombproof even for the novice race.
Report duffy February 3, 2012 4:02 PM GMT
desmond and strontium...great posts looking at both sides....i've said previously that i started out as a big GC fan but the more i see of him the more i'm going off him for either race....in short, the feltham saw everything go his way and conversely bobs worth hated every minute of it.....grands crus looked like he would win it by an absolute street, but , he didn't....idling, maybe but he looked to be getting tired to me, i think that (and i put SS into this category too) although he has settled better he still looks to have that exuberance about him that just burns topo much energy and i think that at cheltenham over the extra distance it will cost him....regardless of the race, personally i hpe he runs in the rsa so bobs worth price holds up.....and on a personal level i like it when i find myself flipping on initial thoughts because it shows me that i am not guilty of sticking stubbornly to an initial idea regardless of what i am subsequently seeing.Grin
Report Desmond Orchard February 3, 2012 4:11 PM GMT
I agree with what you're saying about the 3 mile novices Stront, I recall that this discussion was going on about TFR last year, FFS!
Nonetheless, I would be surprised if this years RSA doesn't throw up a very good stayer and rarely have we anticipated an Arkle as much, with most of the main protagonists also likely to be campaigned over further next year (FWIW, I counted out AF for the Arkle on the basis of that run, he wants further now, as does PC imv. Whilst I think SS will win, I see CC giving him most trouble and he will surely go over further next year too).
I just think that there is a chance that the Gold Cup could almost fall into someone unlikelys hands by default this year. If GC runs in the RSA he will be trying hard to win and could come up short for putting too much into it early on and getting outstayed by a Bobs Worth or Mossley Devil. Whereas, if he hunts round for a circuit and a half in a Gold Cup, trying to maybe place, it could all fall apart around him, with Long Run unshipping SWC and Kauto treading water at the end having tried to set the pace the whole way round. Then what? Midnight Chase? Synchronised? He would have a shout against those plodders, surely. Daft though it sounds, it could end up being the easier race to win.

Can you imagine getting dicked close home in the RSA (or even winning it) and then watching Carruthers win the Gold Cup? Knowing that next season you will in all likelihood be facing the horse that beat you plus something really high quality that is stepping up in trip?
Report Desmond Orchard February 3, 2012 4:13 PM GMT
Me too Duffy. No way have I ever thought that a novice should go in a championship race before, but you've got consider all the variables.
Report strontium February 3, 2012 4:24 PM GMT
Yes, that could happen but it's not very likley! I take your point that there are a lot of noivces this season who will be stayers as seniors, but I stand by mine we don't really know how good they will be.

You make a fair point again that the Gold Cup could fall apart. Kauto might not stay (though I'd like nothing better than to seem him charge up the hill a dozen lengths to the good) [Incidentally, with Carruthers and Midnight Chase in the field I doubt he'll set the pace all the way round, though I don't see any reason not to ride him prominently]. Less likely Long Run unships - he has never fallen or unseated despite his jumping issues. But if Grand Crus does run in the Gold Cup, would they really only ride him for a place? Surely that would be pointless - if they go for it, they might as well try to win - otherwise run him in the Jewson which looks his for the taking. If he's run to try to win the Gold Cup he has to jump as well as some very serious chasers and stay the trip as well and Long Run and Synchronised, which at this stage is not a certainty. Overall, I think the better strategy is to go for the most suitable race and try to win it (old fashioned perhaps, but there you go!)
Report strontium February 3, 2012 4:31 PM GMT
Desmond - incidentally and OT, what makes you think Mossley is likely to reverse form with Join Together?
Report Desmond Orchard February 3, 2012 4:50 PM GMT
I like Join Together and couldn't discount him, with the verdict over Mossley at HQ possibly being one of the best bits of form about for this race. I'm a great believer in previous festival form being a massive plus in March though, its a unique test in an environment that some just do not respond to. Mossleys effort last year in the race that JT pulled up in, although a hurdle race, was a likeable effort that I thought showed plenty of class and stamina. He is a young un still and will need to improve to win, but then they all do. Plus he is 33s to win, JT is 10s and lower. I would rather have him at 7/1 to place than JT at 10s to win, as he has never been out of the first 2 in three visits to the course. I have punted accordingly.
I also backed Flight Leiutenant in the place market in summer, but am not expecting too much from that........
Report Desmond Orchard February 3, 2012 4:52 PM GMT
Oops FL in the win market.
Report Desmond Orchard February 3, 2012 4:54 PM GMT
Back OT. I think the owner said something along the lines of being happy with a place in the Gold Cup, I took that to mean that they might not put him in the race too early, but see how it unfolds. The Gold Cups history is littered with unlikely sorts placing as those that tried to win the race come undone.
Report strontium February 3, 2012 5:00 PM GMT
OK - maybe they would. But on the basis that the first chance seems to be the best, which you've said above and I agree with, that strategy seems to be utterly crackers.
Report strontium February 3, 2012 5:02 PM GMT
Very good points about Mossley BTW.
Report duffy February 3, 2012 6:29 PM GMT
i think the comment regarding being happy with a place in the gold cup simply refers to the fact that he is up against long run and kauto star!!
Report duffy February 3, 2012 6:43 PM GMT
looking back at the feltham...he just does too much during the race for me....you can almost visibly see the energy getting wasted....what a horse he would be if they could put him to sleep through his races so to speak.....he won't get up the hill in front in either race.
Report sintonian February 3, 2012 7:14 PM GMT
If the Jewson was a Grade 1 that's where they'd be heading. Imo, of course.
Report Try My Best February 3, 2012 7:40 PM GMT
I agree with Duffy.He's too buzzy for my liking and I'll be laying him if he runs in the GC or the RSA.
Report tomdeane February 3, 2012 9:48 PM GMT
It's such a game of opinions isn't it!?

Duffy - I'm very interested by your point about going off GC the more you look at it. While I totally take on board what you are saying, and admittedly, his ability to want to get on with things is a minor concern, I just think that might be an overcomplication of the situation.

Was he stopping in the Feltham? Maybe, maybe not - it's hard to tell if he was as Scu was not hard on him at all after the last with the race in the bag and he may well have been idling. But perhaps more importantly, I'm not sure it matters if he was. He wanted to get on with things and Scu let him do just that, but to be fair that was his choice. GC was keen but not pulling the jock's arms out wasting energy in my opinion. Scu just knew what was under him so he let him go to wrap the race up four out. There wouldn't be many horses that can do that against very smart opponents in a Grade One chase.

The more I see it, the more I think he was simply a cut above his rivals. And with him at least, trying to tie down the performance is an example of trying too hard to find faults when they aren't really there. He stayed up the hill plenty well enough behind Big Buck's, seems more settled if anything this term, and does have speed to burn.

I think he's just a very, very good horse, and not one I would want to take on.
Report marychain1 February 3, 2012 10:11 PM GMT
Anyone got a link to the Feltham?
Report marychain1 February 3, 2012 10:14 PM GMT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhqlZj2COrc
Report marychain1 February 3, 2012 10:14 PM GMT
Thank you marychain1
Report duffy February 3, 2012 10:29 PM GMT
tom
i take your point entirely and you may well be right that perhaps i'm seeing something that isn't there but as you say it's all about opinions, it's fascinating that we can point to the exact same performance from a horse in a single race and use it to highlight opposite opinionsLaugh

i've been converted to the bobs worth fan club, to finish as close as he did with the mistakes he made and with the way that GC performed during the race only serves to see bobs in a more positive light when you consider that back at cheltenham and over the extra distance will see him far far better.
Report buddeliea February 4, 2012 7:21 AM GMT
Think the new race is a godsend to connections of Grand Crus.
If they feel that the RSA could harm the horse as to his future Gold Cup chances,then they have an alternative,and a race that is well within his comfort zone.Its his best chance of a festival victory imo.
If they feel they want to have a go at Gold Cup now,fine,go for it,but the Jewson gives them the best chance of a win and a tilt at the GC in the future.
Report thieveslikeus February 4, 2012 12:02 PM GMT
I made the same mistake budd of assuming he had an entry in the Jewson but he hasn't and there is no supplementary stage!  If he is to go 2m 5f then it has to be the Ryanair.
Report buddeliea February 4, 2012 2:16 PM GMT
oh,must admit i had'nt checked the entries.
just assumed,as you say.
Report sintonian February 4, 2012 5:07 PM GMT
Yup me too. RSA it is then.
Report buddeliea February 4, 2012 5:09 PM GMT
well should be!!
Report toppost February 6, 2012 11:47 PM GMT
if you win  rsa about74grand 3rd in gc is 54grand 108 for 2nd 285 for 1st. they mite think he be better for 3+ miles  so nobrainer gold  it is  2nd to long run .has better time  at kempton  then longrun.going to win king/g next year
Report Eeternaloptimist February 7, 2012 4:33 PM GMT
So easy. Everybody should make money. LaughLaughLaugh
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