Grands Crus not going for Argento but could still go Gold?

Surprised at the Racing Posts's irresponsible reporting on this I would have thought they at least might expect this or are they pleasing their bookie pay masters by getting a lot of cash in on a non runner with their lead front page articles?

I would be absolutely flabbergasted if they went for Gold with this horse. Whether they have been playing kidology to get a better price for RSA I don't know but even if he were to take the bizarre step of going out of novice company the Ryanair would be the logical race.

I agree eternal, but I expect him to remain entered in the Gold Cup, possibly including at the final declarations in case something happens (like he runs out at the first in the RSA).

He really needs more experience amongst experienced chasers. We saw how another top placed staying hurdler took chunks out of fences last season, unsurprisingly fences are vastly different as we have seen with many decent hurdlers recently, Celestial Halo also, let alone in the past. Disgrace if they go for the Gold Cup without giving the horse a chance to learn to jump at pace, an undulating track also at Cheltenham he wouldnt know what hit him.

This could be another case of uninformed owner wants to go for Gold Cup when the horse isnt prepared for it. Perhaps the horse could demand the owner takes on a similar challenge where their life might be at risk. This happens every year, last year it was Starluck, ffs the Racing Post seem to be behind this project are their 12 year olds working there or people who look at the history of novices in the race.

I don't think GC stays but if connections believes it will it was absolutely the correct decision not to run the Argento if they want to maximise his chances in the Gold Cup.

1 - The ground on Sat is most likely softer than at festival so more emphasis on stamina therefore GC was always gonna have a hard race.

2 - Argento always likely to be strongly run with MC, LJ, TS in race.

3 - If the Gold Cup is the target the Pipe would not have had him wound up fully for this so why expose him against horses for which this was a clear target. It would just bottom the horse out unnecessarily.

The only thing they might have achieved is finding out he don't stay in softer ground, when not 100%. I think Pipe is right to have the horse fresh and ready to run for its life for whatever target they choose. IMO he won't stay the last 2f of the Gold Cup with Midnight Chase, Kauto and possibly Carruthers forcing a strong pace but Pipe's horses can and do stay further than expected when he winds them up  silly so I could be wrong.

I'd suspect that peoples financial position on certain races is going to influence their stance on this subject

Betting preview to National Hunt's blue riband....

http://starbets.ie/horse-racing/quito-can-get-into-cheltenham-gold-cup-mix/

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No definitive Y/N fr Rodger on Grand Crus, but if I was a betting man(and I've been known to have a dabble) I'd say Gold Cup is a solid fav!

I don't care how many threads you posted this in, it's still a bad idea. This horse could win at least one Gold Cup but he'll have a much better chance next year as a seasoned campaigner than he will this year as a raw novice.

Agree, it's a horrible idea.  Where this theory has come from that the Gold Cup is a less brutal race than the RSA is completely beyond me?  Why do people think there have been so few Gold Cup winners successfully defend their crown over the years?  Even the exceptions to this kind of prove the rule, Best Mate was incredibly lightly raced as well as a bit lucky to win 3 of them and before that L'Escargot was possibly the toughest horse ever going on to win and place in Grand Nationals v Red Rum.   If they think their horse is too soft for the RSA then go for the Jewson!

Totally agree TLU. Spot on.

Sometimes even the most intelligent man can't be reasoned with irrespective of the evidence you put before him if he has made his mind up. The Gold Cup is a far more brutal race than the RSA and the best of the seasoned campaigners would eat nearly any novice for breakfast. Stating the obvious but that is the point of having a novice campaign. Some owners won't be told. Wasn't it Iris Gift that was ruined a few years back by an owner determined to turn him into a chaser? Grands Cru could given time be very special. Still they pay the money and if they want to take the risk then that is their prerogative but please no crocodile tears if it goes pear shaped. At least Goloria Victis had won a big open handicap prior to taking its shot in a gold cup.

I would back Grand Crus at 5/2 NRNB in the Ryanair, think trip is absolutely perfect for him - not entered though,more prestigious than RSA, less gruelling than RSA or Gold Cup and very winnable, then find out next season if he is gonna stay

The Ryannair is a good race this year though,and i would want more than 5/2,a lot more.
Distance makes sense,and as hes a novice theres a race for him-the Jewson.

and in any case the yard seem to be targeting Great Endeavour at the Ryan Air so it has to be doubtful they would take him on with their own runner

If his next race throws up stamina doubts then the Ryanair is his only option as he isn't entered in the Jewson and there is a supplementary stage for the Ryanair.   It is a hot race this year but he would surely have more chance in it than in the Gold Cup!

seriously the RyanAir is not on the radar

Nor should it be, he should be in the Jewson but he isn't!

surprised they did not enter in the jewson to be honest.
RSA for me.

Many will not care about the trend but there is no doubting it is a powerful one - the last 17 Feltham Case winners to run in the RSA have all been beaten which would worry me if I was going to back him now

different story if you are on at fancy prices of course

Quite right Judorick, many good horses have tried and failed to overturn that stat, Long Run for one. Horses that where "also rans" in the Feltham have a decent record though which probably has more to do with the different natures of the tracks than anything else.

What's the record of Feltham winners in the Gold Cup stats fans?

Reynoldstown winners had a horrible record to until Alberta's managed to win both.  Though how Mr Mulligan contrived to lose the RSA is still a mystery to me and surely Drumadowney would have gone very close in the RSA if he hadn't gone for the Gold Cup instead where he was a very game and close 4th. 

Re: the Feltham - as well as the very different tracks, another theory is that it is hard for horses to peak twice in the season and the Feltham takes a lot of winning.  Not sure about that one as more experienced horses seem to be able to cope with the King George and CGC!  But then they probably wouldn't need a race inbetween whereas a long lay off can be more disadvantageous for novices.  I guess Feltham winners heading to RSA are damned if they run again and damned if they don't?

I think Long Run is the only Feltham winner to win the Gold Cup?

Feltham Chase winners

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feltham_Novices'_Chase

There is only one on there that I can see went on to win the Gold Cup and that was Long Run (unless anyone knows better) and I don't think many have tried the GC in their novice year

*too

As I thought. So the Feltham stat isn't much of a help in  deciding whether GC should go for the RSA or the Gold Cup. However, if a horse can't win the RSA, it seems unlikley to win the Gold Cup that year.

it is often very difficult to explain why trends are as they are and I can't explain this one either

but from a punting point of view, which is where I am always looking from, the long term trend is strong enough for me to believe it especially when the horse trying to overcome it is 5/2 or something (as I said earlier if you have fancy ante post prices then it is different)

To be fair Strontium l don't think many trainers would use the Feltham as a stepping stone to the Gold Cup that same season. How many novices can you think of that have ran in the Gold Cup in their novice season? lt is used as a stepping stone towards the RSA regularly, it just isn't a good pointer for punters if your wanting to back the winner of the Feltham in the RSA.

I mentioned one already, Drumadowney the other obvious one won the Feltham and died in the Gold Cup.

However, a trend is much more convincing if it's straightforward to rationalise. People slag off Grand National trends followers but the trends basically breaak down to wanting a horse that's fit, experienced, in reasonable form, hasn't had too hard a season, will stay, and has enough class to win the race. There's no magic there - it's basically just taking a statistical view of standard form analysis.

In contrast, saying the horse that wins the Feltham never wins the RSA is harder to explain. It's also, by definition, a very small sample. It could be what's been stated above - it's hard for a novice to peak twice, diffferent demands of the tracks. Maybe winning a tough race like the Feltham takes a lot out of novices. But on the other hand, the King George is the very best trial for the Gold Cup and many Gold Cup winners are second season chasers.

Overall, stats like the Feltham one are things I keep in mind, but wouldn't be decisive for me.

just watched the Feltham and I was struck by how badly Bobs Worth jumped - lost momentum at virtually every fence and was never really happy at any stage. Was it the going, right handed track, pace of race? Deffo something he didn't like and he can do much better

will be keeping an eye on that one

Bland- fair enough, but this thread is about which race Grands Crus should go for. And I'd stand by my point that if, for some reason, Feltham winners struggle to win the RSA they'd probably have more difficulty winning the Gold Cup in their novice season. I was being facetious above - I know full well not enough Feltham winners have tried in a Gold Cup to produce any meaningful stats (and for good reason).

Totally agree that the horse should go in the RSA and the Gold Cup should be dismissed unless people think Silviniaco Conti could also be considered because he was not that far behind. They would also have the option of the Jewson or even the Arkle but given the way he has been campaigned the 3 miler looks the race

Not entered in the Jewson or Arkle and there's no supplementary stage.

l agree Strontium, you have to apply common sense too when using stats but l do feel that there are some stats that are very strong when it comes to Festival races that are constantly backed up year on year. This one for exmaple, no l can't explain why it keeps coming back up, but the fact that 16 previous winners have all been beaten is pretty conclusive to me. Especially when you consider that there can only be 1 qualifier a year.

Yes Strontium we kind of got side tracked from the original question didn't we? Personally for me if he is to go out of novice company l think he should be in the Champion Chase as it is so weak and he's obviously not short of pace. l think he'll get found out for stamina in either of the races that connections are looking at running him in.

so weak??
SE and BZ to beat???

Feltham winners didn't turn out to be a brilliant bunch did they? Looking at the list, Long Run's class. Gloria Victis and See More Indians might have been, who knows? But there's nothing else there that screams legend. Maybe that's why they weren't so successful at the Festival?

Anyway Bland - I haven't backed Grands Crus for either race and don't expect to, but will be watching him with great interest.

Just looked through the Feltham winners on judo's wiki-link and it is pretty clear why it is a poor trial.  The winners, with very few exceptions, simply aren't very good!

stront beat me to it lol

Sorry to go off topic but I just have to say that when you approach a meeting like the Cheltenham Festival from a trends point of view it is my experience that you need to look at the trends as providing an edge across the whole 27 races - and not necessarily in an individual race - if you see what I mean. I am looking to find value by finding under priced and over priced runners and that is how I look at the trends - everything relative to the price and looking to profit in the long run

That's sensible Judo. Some races are very strong on trends - e.g. the Will Hill Hcap and the Gold Cup.n On the other hand some of the novice races are weaker (I think because nearly all the runners hit all all the major trends). Others are new or have had conditions changed so there's no menaingful data (e.g. Jewson, 2 1/2 m nov hcap, fred Winter, Martin Pipe, NH Chase (perhaps)).

Agree.  Some very logical trends go across groups of races, lto winners in handicaps is one.  Novice hurdlers proven winners in fields of 15+ another.  As long as there is logic there, my advics is to follow the logic though rather than being hard and fast.  An unlucky loser lto might be as good as a lto winner for example(see Spirit River?)

the other thing I keep in mind is that when approaching an individual race, like the RSA Chase, I am looking to make a profit in the long run over the next 10, 20, 30 editions of that race - and when there is a powerful negative against a short priced runner then in the long run it will pay me to pay attention to that strong trend... and that's why I will oppose short priced 5 year olds in the CH and so on because it is proven that they make a significant level stakes loss over many Festivals

The key for me is working out the important trends and following the logic.  I used to follow trends long before they became trendy.  Had a set of rules for the National, one of them was that the winner had always won a chase over 3m 2f or further.   Then along came Rough Quest and I reasoned that a 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup was as good as a win.  Was a cathartic moment. 

I regard 5yo in CH a false trend by the way, the important trend is to be battle hardened (few 5yo are) - last 2 decades Champion Hurdlers all had at least 6 wins under rules and at least 15 runs, whatever their age.

Apologies for also going slightly off topic here, but for people using the form from last year aka big bucks really need to be absolutely sure, because there is one question niggling me as to how he managed to get so close, has BB ever won a race by a wide margin??? (except some egg and spoon race at a wet newbury on heavy ground etc)

He's probably won his last 2 by his biggest margins (Ascot and the Cleeve)?

Just on the subject of feltham winners having a poor record in the RSA...

Placed horses in the Feltham however have a very good record in the RSA with maybe the sharp track not suiting them entirely and Cheltenham being an totally different proposition...

This trend I find useful as it says to me that plenty of trainers still send there best Novice to the Feltham despite the sharp track not playing to there strengths...

I think so stront, though couldnt be absolutely certain without looking! I do no one thing though, plenty of dosh has been won by me backing under in the distances when BB has been running over the past couple of years!

The key for me is working out the important trends and following the logic

This applies to whatever you consider about a race or a horse. What you are talking about is "significance" and it is, in my opinion, the single most powerful tool in the punters armoury.

It can be anything from a market move, a speed figure, a jockey booking, a stat or trend or anything really and I am constantly looking for significance

After reading all this some very good points I honestly believe that this horse will lead and and destroy the rsa field come march and then be in a very solid position come next year for the gold cup. Pipe would have no excuses to make then come march and would see this as a much easier option to win the rsa, if he went to gold cup with the lack of experience he could end up way down the field come the last fence with Kauto and Long Run miles clear. I know the stats situation with Feltham chase but not bothered believe this horse is has a great build it up for it and the 11/4 is a nice price.

One thing that is certainly certain Luke and that is he won't lead...that is a certainty...

Just a quick point, and not a particularly important one, but has anyone else noticed the astonishing similarity in the profiles of Grands Crus now and Punchestowns 2 years ago?  Both French bred 7yos who's class and stamina credentials are based on running Big Bucks to 1.75 lengths in the World Hurdle but both beaten further than that by that horse on another occasion.  GC winner of a Grade 2 3m hurdle, Punchestowns slightly ahead by winning a 25f Grade 1. Both looking surprisingly speedy over fences.   Just some food for thought.

GC looks a better jumper than Punch was at same stage though.

thieves

The only thing I will say to that argument as a punchestowns follower (who could of made me rich -  s*d) is Punchestowns although of similar profile was never as fluent at his fences as this fellow, eluded to by budd...

He certainly looks a natural and also will go to Cheltenham a course winner over fences...

Yes see the difference, that's why I said not particularly important.  Punchestowns was supposed to win 5 gold cups though as I remember it ;)

yes shame for the horse and his followers...was injured early in the RSA i would say and never went a yard...the horse still hurts as much as when the great filly six perfections was given the ride from hell by the idiot Thulliez in the 1000 Guinnneas....

much pain felt, as both would of won the shop or at least shares in one