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Notus De La Tour for me at this stage. He hasn't been entered into the Arkle, so it looks like this will be his race, and I think 20/1 is a fair price; especially if he runs a big race in the Irish Arkle over 2m1f.
Loads that are ahead of him in the betting probably won't run : Peddlers, Al Feorf, Conti, Last Installment, Bog Warrior and Blackstairmountain; all are primarily aimed at other races or in Conti's case, may miss Cheltenham. 20/1 for what could be 3rd or 4th fav isn't too bad. If this was NRNB, I think First Leiutenant would be a great bet at 20/1, I think this would suit him a lot more than the RSA. Wouldn't back now though because to unclear which race he'll go for. Also, if Cedre Bleu wins this I'll go mad!!! |
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I think this race is the one with most potential for gettin massive value - as u say 6/7 at the top of the market are nt gonna run - prob is findin one that will run!
I have had a nibble on FNS and presume he'll go here as he cant win d Arkle! |
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I'm fairly keen on Minella Class at the price given he hasn't been entered elsewhere and it's marginal whether he'll be low enough rated for the handicap.
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Sir Des Champs surely going here...12's still big no?
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Really like sir des champs myself for this rhinestone although am a little concerned of his entry over 2m 5f this weekend was hoping they would of gone to the arkle instead just to hold the price and guarantee the jewson, so am just holding fire because if he wins easy they will surely be tempted by the RSA? Lets hope not cause really like him for this...
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Cant see SDS goin for the RSA with him completely unproven beyond 2m4/5 - and Giginstown have LI and FL for the RSA
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Am on Champion Court @ 14/1. Very impressed with his New Year's run at Chelt. Came up the hill like a festival winner. Can't be ignored at the prices.
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I'm inclined to agree Glossy but his trainer keeps muttering about going for the RSA. He'd be on my shortlist once his target becomes clearer (if it's the Jewson!)
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Took this as being fairly positive for the Jewson?
Keighley is now leaning towards a tilt at the Jewson Novices' Chase as his Chetenham Festival target. He added: "I think we would ride him aggressively again and the Jewson looks the race for him over two and half miles. He has a relentless gallop and the way he jumps that could be the one for him. He will also have entries in the RSA Chase and couple of handicap options as well but the Jewson would be the number one choice." |
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I hadn't seen that, thanks. When was that comment made?
I notice he has entries in the Jewson, Ryaniar and RSA. The Jewson would be his race for me. The Ryanair entry just seems odd. |
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Which handicaps by the way? He's rated too high for the novice (150). Is the Byrne Plate a 0-145. If so, that would seem to leave the Grand Annual.
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BJG hear where your coming from but first lieutenant hasn't impressed for me and last instal has never been confirmed and if he hoses up at the weekend who knows...I have learnt through hard earnt that trying to second guess these trainers and owners can be very costly...
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Sorry, he could go for Byrne, it's a Grade 3.
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stront, that quote is from an article from Tuesday (24th). Didn't pay too much attention to the handicap comment. I'd be amazed if they were aiming for anything other than the Jewson - we all know that trainers don't like to be tied down to comments that they'd made the days! Hence the multiple entries. The quote was enough for me to jump on at 14's anyway :)
Here's the article in its entirety if you're interested: Trainer Martin Keighley reports exciting chasing prospect Champion Court in good order after his victory at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. The seven-year-old made all in gallant fashion to beat useful duo Solix and Invictus and all roads now lead to the Cheltenham Festival in March. Keighley told sportinglife.com: "It was a great performance and especially the way he jumped for a novice. He has had a nice break and is fresh and well." The son of Court Cave has been mixing it with some big names this season and he was not winning out of turn at Cheltenham following some excellent placed efforts prior to New Year's Day. "He had an impossible task of trying to give Grand Crus five pounds and he was still putting up a challenge to him at the second last so has some great form to his name." Keighley is now leaning towards a tilt at the Jewson Novices' Chase as his Chetenham Festival target. He added: "I think we would ride him aggressively again and the Jewson looks the race for him over two and half miles. He has a relentless gallop and the way he jumps that could be the one for him. He will also have entries in the RSA Chase and couple of handicap options as well but the Jewson would be the number one choice." Some more match practice is in the pipleline too with options open for Champion Court next month. Keighley detailed: "He might have a prep race later in February - there is a novice chase at Exeter and a novice chase at Market Rasen so he might go for one of those and then straight to the Festival. "It is great to have a horse like him that is competitive for these big races on a Saturday. You can't beat having Cheltenham winners and he has done us proud - it's very exciting." |
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Cheers.a
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far away so close following the same route as noble prince? 33/1...
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Bog Warrior, ideal race at this stage in his career, would be sp fav, imo.
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harry:- Mullins is the last person in the world to try and second guess!
However. He has Blackstairmountain for the Arkle. Gigginstown have First Lieutenant and Last Instalment for the RSA. Sir Des Champs is already going to be rated too high for handicaps. He won over the trip at last years festival, and has been campaigned at around the trip this season, including dodging the Irish Arkle for this 2m5f race. Just seems obvious race to me ![]() |
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Meadow, i'm hoping that Bog Warrior lines up for this but i read something from the trainer the other day saying how much he thinks of him and i think they'll be tempted by RSA. Perhaps if Grands Crus runs in RSA one or two others (hopefully including BW) will go for the Jewson instead?
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One of the Gigginstown horses will probably go for the Powers Gold Cup, and I'd bet it'll be Bog Warrior.
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I must admit I'd be very surprised if Bog Warrior ran in the RSA, connections have First Lootenant & Last Installement for that race. It's this race or the arkle for me, if he does come over.
They went a similar path with War of attrition a few years back, another horse they thought highly of before launching him on the gold cup path. |
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That leaves Cristal Bonus to complete my Arkle quintet; he was a classy hurdler who holds entries in the Jewson and RSA as well. He delighted me when winning over 2m4f at Chepstow on his chasing debut and goes for the Scilly Isles at Sandown a week on Saturday. His current target is the Jewson, though.
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Betting Bog Warrior at 20/30's isnt a problem for me when he'd be single figures on the off, 50/50 he's not comming, but he has 3 entries, the owner isnt scared of multiple entries, so it's worth a punt.
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rhinestone agree and am all over it myself but have been there before and if I have to take a couple of points shorter knowing he is a runner then so be it...but I myself need confirmation (and think it is the race for him) need to see him running saturday as if he beats this hidden cyclone easy it will open up a can of worms, if not then hope he runs a nice race...then I will step in, but if he is winning easy by 10 then I would have reservations myself...
Its a filthy game as you know ![]() |
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SDS
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After the race Willie Mullins didn’t pin his collar to one particular race at the Cheltenham Festival.
He said: “He made a few errors, but galloped on nicely to the line. He's improving slowly and will go to Cheltenham for the Jewson Novices' Chase or the RSA Chase. This what you are up against rhinestone...you try and get the edge and this is what you are up against...but if you are already on good luck to you...I however won't be going through the ringer to find out a week before the race whether he is a runner or not...I suppose the exchange will help ![]() |
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I know harry.
Looks on that run and the festival run last year he'd be better over the RSA distance. However it looks like Giggys are already running LI and FL in that. ![]() Yeah, already on him, I know I shouldn't have really but I have ![]() |
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Well good luck pal...
![]() Really fancy him myself for jewson but even after the run no decision...and looked in need of further so RSA must be tempting but like you say they have 2 others for that although I have to say I'm not keen of either of them... |
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Owner Andy Stewart feels Pacha Du Polder is a likely type for the Jewson Novices' Chase in March following his recent win at Warwick.
Winner of two of his three starts since joining Paul Nicholls, Stewart owns the five-year-old in partnership with Graham Wylie. Pacha Du Polder also holds an entry in the Arkle over two miles, yet despite beating Eradicate on his British debut over the minimum trip, Stewart does not feel he has enough pace for that race. "We're not getting carried away just yet," said Stewart. "He's got entries in the Arkle and the Jewson at Cheltenham, and he'll have to run in one of those, I'd have thought. "Realistically, he's not going to win an Arkle as he's not fast enough, so he'll probably end up running in the Jewson. "That looks the race for him but whether he's good enough, I don't know. "It's become a really good race." |
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IRISH Arkle third Notus De La Tour will head straight to the Cheltenham Festival where his target is likely to be either the Jewson Novices' Chase or the Byrne Group Chase, his trainer David Pipe said on Monday.
The six-year-old, who finished over 20 lengths behind winner Flemenstar at Leopardstown on Sunday, is a general 16-1 short for the Jewson and as big as 20-1 with Paddy Power. Pipe told his website: "He ran another fine race and Robbie Power gave him another great ride but we (and the rest of the field) were no match for the very impressive winner, Flemenstar. "Notus De La Tour will now head straight to the festival but his exact target has yet to be decided, it maybe either the Jewson Novice's Chase or the Byrne Group Chase." |
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i quite like red tanber at 500/1 progressive and well
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Have done a write up for all the market principles for the Jewson on my blog. Feel free to have a look: http://onetojump.blogspot.com/2012/02/jewson-novices-chase-early-look.html
From the research I'd say Cristal Bonus has all the credentials to win this. Sir des champs is fantastic but am concerned that if the strong finishing tactics are employed again (like in last year's Martin Pipe) his jumping over the last two could undo his chances. Elsewhere I am keen on Invictus if he runs and Solix who is improving with every run and should reverse the form with Champ Court |
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I like Cristal Bonus as well. He didn't beat much yesterday, but he did it very stylishly. Also Invictus who was impressive at Ascot (will he go for the RSA though?).
I slightly disagree about Solix and Champion Court - CC was super on NYD and they are clearly close on form so I don't see why the form should necessarily reverse, especially when CC finished better after his rider dropped his stick. |
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King said RSA for Invictus
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Doesn't surprise me, he deserves to take his chance and Walkon has disappointed.
Any news on Champion Court's target as RSA has been mentioned there as well. |
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Keighley is now leaning towards a tilt at the Jewson Novices' Chase as his Chetenham Festival target.
He added: "I think we would ride him aggressively again and the Jewson looks the race for him over two and half miles. He has a relentless gallop and the way he jumps that could be the one for him. He will also have entries in the RSA Chase and couple of handicap options as well but the Jewson would be the number one choice." |
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Much obliged BJG.
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Been having a good look at this race, and I'm convinced For Non Stop is an unbelievable bet at 8/1. I had an annoyingly small amount on him at 10's and had expected him to shorten more than he had so was very surprised to see he is still available at this price.
Most firms still have Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof quite prominent in their betting for this, and neither will line up in this race. Similarly Invictus is most likely to go for the RSA according to King and it'll take monsoons of biblical proportions in the next 2 weeks for Bog Warrior to travel. So if we take these 4 out, it doesnt look to have much strength in depth to me. I would greatly respect Sir Des Champs if he goes for this, which I think he will, and also think the trip will prove perfect for Champion Court, but at 8/1 I cant ignore FNS. Has excellent course form, including a 2nd to Grand Crus over 2m5f in a hnadicap hurdle. Only beaten 5 lenghts getting 1 lb. Then ran a blinder in the County Hurdle falling at the last when 2nd, admittedly looking held and tired, but ran very well for a very long way. Looked like he was going to win when he came down in his novice chase at the course as well. So while his jumping is clearly an issue, its the onle nagtive I have against him. I thought he did jump much better last time however and was quite impressive in a decent little race. He has finished a decent 2nd to both Al Ferof and Cue Card this season and more than likely wont meet anything of their quality in this race. I could see him going off 4/1 or less on the day, especially if they both run well in the Arkle, which I think they will. |
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Ssshhh CCM. I've had a small bet on For Non Stop, but am looking to top up soon. The horse surely isn't a 8/1 shot, can see him going off favourite.
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