**** National Hunt Novices Chase ****

Sometimes, well pretty much every year actually, a horse jumps out that is screaming - absolutely SCREAMING - for the four miles of this race.

This year is no exception.

I think there is 2 in this that are - unfortunately they are the ones that everyone thinks needs it!

Soll bein 1 - was expectin a much bigger price tbh

HTV was the other - Teaforthree the only other one of remote interest at this stage

The old adage that “it is a lady’s prerogative to change her mind” might well be behind some rather mixed signals coming from the Rebecca Curtis yard as to what is the ultimate target at the forthcoming Cheltenham Festival for her talented sort Teaforthree, writes Elliot Slater.

A decent staying novice hurdler last term where he finished third to Mossley in Grade 2 company at Cheltenham’s December fixture before going to run come eighth to Bobs Worth in the Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle at the festival three months later, the gelded son of Oscar had shown progressive form this term as a novice chaser placing at both Chepstow and Cheltenham before beating the useful Restless Harry in heavy ground over three-miles back at Chepstow in December. Anyone looking at the Cheltenham Festival odds should remember this.

Curtis freely admits that she then made a mistake in asking the eight-year-old to go up against the likes of Grand Crus and Silviniaco Conti in the Grade 1 Feltham Novices Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, a race run over a sharp three-miles on ground that is almost certainly too lively for her charge. As a result Teaforthree was quickly outpaced entering the final mile when the tempo was raised and was eventually pulled up when tailed off before the third from home.

Having declared after his Chepstow win that her horse was to be aimed at the four-mile National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham’s showcase fixture, it has come as something of a surprise to learn that Curtis is planning to send her charge to Ffos Las for the Welsh Champion Hurdle in early February over two-miles, a somewhat unorthodox preparation for a marathon chase.  Bookmakers rate Teaforthree a 14/1 co-favourite for the Cheltenham event, (a race restricted to amateur riders), and should the ground come up testing and he come through his Welsh test unscathed, Curtis’ charge would go into the race with serious prospects of making his presence felt.

The horse I'm thinking of is a 25/1 shot at the moment....hoping for bigger when all the firms go up.

2nd bet of a very light AP portfolio.

Harry the Viking 9/1. Nothing original but a decent enough price.

P.s. I would love to know which firm were going 14/1 co-favs as stated iIn BJG's paste.

I'd be expecting Crash to turn up for this and he looks like he would gallop all day and jumps fine. Probably even prefer the better ground too over a trip like this.

That quote was from a while back DD


Soll runs tomorrow

there are a variety of penalties that apply for this race which depend on the number and type of victories achieved prior to the race - usually it pays to carry no more than the minimum penalty which is 3lbs I believe (think there is also a 7lb and a 10lb penalty that can be awarded). So just watch out for those horses that have racked up a bunch of wins - the ones that have been plotted up will be carrying less.

I remember Jonjo moaning that his horse, Native Imperial, got an extra penalty for winning when the horse he was following home fell leaving him clear ... he still won the 4 miler though

^nonsense, imvho

you are welcome to counter imvho if you have something to add

otherwise stfu knut

Weights: 5-y-o......11st 4lb; 6-y-o and up.......11st 6lb
Mares allowed.........................................7lb

There isn't even a single penalty line in the 4 miler let alone 'a variety' of them, you pea-brained fakhwit.

Penalties were removed from 2010.

lol gotta love the ones that abuse all round em




den get proved wrong


Some very angry people about imo

Judorick - the forum clown



Al Ferof SHOULD NOT run in the Arkle....

He's finished outside the first two in a chase dontcha know.

Actually, is this not a golden example of why the sociopunting group "statstwats" frequently fall flat on their faces when trying to defend their slave-like devotion to 'the stats'?

They look at the last ten years (why ten I've always wondered....beyond it being a nice numnber that the human brain finds comforting) of this and that but seem unwilling (or unable) to acknowledge that the fixture list, race programme therein and eligibity and conditions of the races within that programme are all subject to change and alteration from one season to the next...and even the races that haven't changed are pulled and pushed about by races that have.  Or, in the case of the National, THEY just would not have a horse winning off more than 11st "because it hasn't happened since Red Rum so therefore won't happen until another Red Rum comes along" even though the guy who sets the weights had massively changed his methodology and there were roughly 20 times more horses running off 11st or more than in the period the 'stats' had been built up.

Anyway....back to the 4 miler.

FOUR COMMANDERS (NAP)

Soll wins fairly comfortably - interested to hear what WPM says after

Charles Byrnes believes Fists Of Fury rubber-stamped his credentials for the Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham following his fine effort in defeat at Leopardstown on Saturday.

The eight-year-old chestnut has shown a good level of form since he was sent chasing this season, and only went down by half a length to Sir Des Champs in a Grade Two over an inadequate trip at the weekend.

Byrnes is convinced a step up to four miles at the Cheltenham Festival on March 14 could now work in his favour.

He said: "Fists Of Fury ran a very good race and was fine afterwards.

"He likes that good to yielding ground - that would be when he is at his best.

"That was a nice trial for Cheltenham. He'll go there a fresh horse as he won't be running before then.

"He's not the quickest in the world by any means, but he jumps well and he stays - that's the main thing in a race like the four-miler at Cheltenham."

Headmaster.... be interested to know why you fancy Four Commanders so much? What makes you so confident he will get the trip? Cheers

Champion trainer Willie Mullins set another landmark today when becoming the fastest to 100 winners in an Irish season as Soll strolled to victory in the beginners chase at Down Royal.
The 2/5 favourite, with Ruby Walsh up, led from the front and scored by four-and-a-half-lengths for his Cumbrian owner Derrick Mossop who was in attendance.

“He’s a big baby but hopefully he has a big future,” Mr Mossop said.

Willie Mullins gave an indication of Soll’s talent when he said: “He’ll probably go for the four mile chase at Cheltenham.

“You saw how green he was passing the post. I doubt he’ll run between now and Cheltenham. I would like to get another run into him but it may be too close.”

CCM - everytime he runs he leaves me with the impression he's a future National winner.  His chases so far:

09/10 'kept on well'
04/11 'kept on well'
20/11 'kept on same pace'
26/12 'kept on'
21/01 'kept on'

The lad's aching for this imo.  In an ideal world I'd want him a year older and the ground with a bit of juice but you can't have everything!

Fair enough, I respect your opinion. I've watched a couple of his races and whilst he was plodding on, I never felt like he was staying on well enough to suggest he is crying out for the step up, but will take another look!

Headmaster, I remember you coming up with Old Benny in your preview for this race a couple of years back (and followed you in a result ) so was looking forward to see the one for this year - after your original post I had come to the conclusion it might be Iron Chancellor. Will follow this one with a bit more interest now!

I got IC added to the makret on here the other week, only because connections said he will run. 25/1 to price I think.

IC = Iron Chancellor.

Anyone know if Henry Daly entered The Falklander please ..

Will be swigging on a nice, cold bottle of Sol to celebrate Soll's victory in this

wheres Judo gone??

I'll swerve the Irish given a a pretty lousy recent record in this race. The exception in the last 10 years was Chicago  Grey and he was pretty exclusive prepped across the Channel and mainly at Cheltenham.  For me at this stage teaforthree, and one to watch Sybarite who might significantly improve for the step up in trip. Lots of average form at the track but NTD apparently always thought the world of the horse.

Baile Anrai has a each way chance as he seems to be a improving horse who looks likely to be suited by a further step up in trip and who has won on a variety of ground

To be fair to the angry judo fella this race did used to have some very odd conditions and penalties.  Reckon he must be using an old Paul Jones book as that would have highlighted such trends.  Seem to recall as well as penalties that it was limited to horses that were complete maidens at the start of the season, no hurdles wins or flat or anything?   They then presumably decided that having a 4 mile novice chase for amateur riders was fcuked up enough without diluting the quality of the horses with strange rules.

Should not be swearing at people on here anyway,especially the c word,and if you do its best to get yer facts right before doing that.

He does get a bit cross doesn't he? I suspect high blood sugar.

Teaforthree for me by the way but I have a horrible record in this race, before and after the new rules, so I've probably murdered the poor bugga just by mentioning it!

that Four Commanders is particularly well bred for a staying chaser, an interesting one alright.

To help consolidate my own thoughts with 5 weeks to go I've done a write up on a number of the runners for the NH chase: http://onetojump.blogspot.com/2012/02/national-hunt-chase-early-look.html

Harry The Viking looks a deserved favourite. Surprised that Viking Blond hasn't got a mention on this thread yet. He looks to have a massive chance if running imo

My favorite race of the year...

well interesting the headmaster going for four commanders have to say I'm not sure he wants this trip or better ground...interesting runner but no more...lots of interesting types and usual brutal affair awaits...the one I like is fist of fury although only for small stakes as he ran so poorly at the track behind join together...strongs bow legend is also interesting me but prefer a hold up runner myself...lots of form to wade through...

I have one other that I'm more keen on but need to see him confirmed a runner...will let you know...

I'm always wary of anything willie mullins sends to the race as for some reason he has had lots of fancied runners and they don't appear to run to form...the same thing seems to apply to paul nicholls for some reason...can't put my finger on it but be wary...

Wow. That's the first time i've seen/heard someone say that, Harry. The 4m novice chase with amatuers up is your favourite race? Streuth, mate. It is certainly a puzzle to solve so I can see the appeal there.

Last yeah I backed Mobaasher for this ante-post at 20/1 and he went off 13/2 on the day. Made a bad mistake at the 13th and then ran on to finish 5th.

Iron Chancellor was quietly impressive last time out, 25/1 seems a fair price at this stage and duly had a few quid on. Will get the distance imo.

Sint. Are you sh@gging Alan King

Believe it or not sint just think it is a cracking horse race...

I know it seems funny but I love amateur rider races as no one is interested in them and thus if I put the time in I find nice rewards...funnily have had my biggest win on an amateur race without sounding a complete p****

Agree about Iron C but just not sure what he has actually achieved so far but also think looks an out and out stayer in the making if he goes on...

PAUL NICHOLLS HAS A RECORD OF JUST ONE PLACED HORSE FROM 13 STARTERS - NINE OF WHICH STARTED IN THE FIRST FIVE IN THE BETTING.

CCM
Just convinced he'll have a winner this festival. Last year it was Bensalem, the year prior it was zero due to stable problem, and the year before it was the horse in the Grand Annual which I forget.

If he does, I'm sure you'll be on it mate

Great win for you boys yesterday. Reckon you'll finish above us?!

No idea tbh. We're both as sh1t as each other in truth.
We really need our full backs back to give the defence some solidity. Diaby might be back soon aswell but I wont hold my breath. AC Milan soon.

catch me

Thats exactly how I see it mate! Chelsea not much better either. Reckon Wilshere will be paying out though

CFC need to get rid of Terry. Obviously I hope he stays for a long time but he IS now a liability.

And Luiz! He's a good footballer but an absolutely terrible defender.

Aye. Shocking.

Maringo to Strike in 4 Miler
2012-02-10 11:45:00

1pt Maringo Bay @ 33/1 to win the National Hunt Chase

One of the most common failings amongst punters is sentimentality, typically about a horse we've won on previously. How many people who backed Al Ferof, First Lieutenant or Bob's Worth at last season's Festival are following them almost blindly this year despite the fact they're all skinny prices for what they've shown over fences this season? This isn't a secret - we all know about the risk of sentimentality, which shows just how hard it is overcome.

I'm usually pretty good at not getting sentimental with horses but am much less good at not getting sentimental about the 4 miler. It used to be my luckiest race at the Festival as it generally had a great betting shape. However, the race conditions have changed hugely and I haven't had the winner since Another Rum went in at 40/1 in 2005. It's a race that gets far less focus than the other novice chases so it should still provide good betting opportunities - and I'm determined to get it right this year.

Nowadays the race is open to horses who’ve won hurdle races in previous seasons but the key change was the removal of penalties which had really helped the race from a betting point of view, (4lb for winning a chase and 7lb for winning 2 or more). That may not have sounded much but over 4m it made a huge difference and in the last 10 runnings before it became a level weights race in 2010, only Butler's Cabin defied the double penalty and half the winners were maidens over fences. The race was generally priced up on novice chase form over much shorter trips - ie those at the top of the market tended to be penalised horses that were questionable stayers (6 of the favourites were saddled with the double penalty, all were beaten).

Some of the criteria for the race remain unchanged - arguably the most important being to know your jockey. There is still a vast spectrum of riding skills on show and unlike most amateur rider's races, the jockeys can't claim, enhancing the advantage the best pilots give you. If you'd just picked a horse ridden by one the best jockeys in recent years you'd have had 5 of the last 6 winners on your shortlist with Derek O'Connor, Katie Walsh, Sam Waley-Cohen, Charlie Huxley & Richard Harding all recognised as one of the best riders the year they won.

The 2006 running was a classic example - I was adamant that a horse called Beantown should have been amongst the favourites not a 40/1 shot. I knew nothing much about his jockey Mr P Tobin and stupidly didn't try and find out, being so blinded by the horse's underrated qualities. Watching Mr Tobin and Beantown go down by a fast diminishing neck, under what politely would be called an injudicious ride, was pretty chastening. We don't know riding arrangements at this stage which is a crucial risk in ante-post betting in this race, and a good reason not to take a shortish price until you know who is riding the horse you want to back.

The other key factor is experience. Like the RSA, this isn't a race for horses who aren't battle hardened over fences - the last two winners Poker De Sivola and Chicago Grey had run in 11 and 9 chases respectively. With all that in mind, is there a horse that jumps out at this stage or is it a year to wait until closer to the race?

Harry The Viking (8/1) is the obvious place to start. He's on a 5 timer, the last two wins being in decent contests at Doncaster, beating Saint Are (won a Grade 1 novice hurdle last season) 3/4l over 3m and then edging out Ikorodu Road in a handicap off 129 (3m2f). He's a really idle type so it would be no surprise to see him prove himself much better than the bare form. That doesn't make him the obvious type for an amateur rider's race though. He's also entered for the Haydock Grand National Trial which implies connections are considering other priorities than the Festival. Given all that I couldn't back him now. Picture This (16/1) is in the same ownership and so when combined with his lack of experience (2 chase runs spread over 15 months) he's easy to pass over.

Soll (10/1) has only had 5 races in his life and only 2 chases. He broke his maiden last week at 2/5 beating Harpsy Chord 4 1/2l (levels) in a 2m4f beginners chase at Down Royal. The runner up had been beaten 27l on his other chase start so the quality of his form and his lack of experience (Willie Mullins doubted he'd have the chance to get another run into him before the Festival) makes him easy to oppose. When looking at the front two in the betting it's worth noting that the champion trainers, Nicholls and Mullins, haven't had even a placed horse in the last decade (though Mullins has had only 3 runners, compared to Nicholls 10).

Teaforthree (14/1) has looked a decent staying type on two good runs this season, firstly at Cheltenham when getting within 1 1/2l of leading RSA fancy Join Together (3m1f, levels), before beating Restless Harry 3 1/2l at Chepstow (3m, levels). That form puts him right in contention for this but the Chepstow race was on heavy ground which Rebecca Curtis believes he's best on (targeting the Welsh National next season) and so I couldn't back him at this stage.

By contrast, Fists of Fury (14/1) has been campaigned with a view to finding the best ground possible (sent over by Charles Byrnes to win a Wetherby beginners chase in November - form has not worked out). By far his best bare form was last time when splitting Sir Des Champs and Hidden Cyclone in a tight finish in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown - but that was over 2m5f and I'm not sure he's the out and out stayer he's been made out to be.

Lambro (14/1) is also entered for the Jewson and RSA and definitely doesn't look the type for this (beaten only 3 1/2l by subsequent runaway Grade 1 winner Flemenstar over 2m (levels) last time out) and I'd be really surprised if he lined up.

A key line of Irish form for this might be the Grade 2 at Naas (3m, soft/heavy) last month which saw Medical Card (16/1) edge out Crash (16/1) and the odds-on Allee Garde (16/1) with Four Commanders (25/1) a close 4th (levels). Allee Garde is the only one of the 4 with any form on decent ground and I'm not convinced by the strength of the Naas race. Allee Garde and Medical Card both have RSA entries and Crash appeals as the most likely winner, but his odds about reflect his chance.

Of the others near the top of the market there are plenty that are easy to oppose at this stage, such as Loose Preformer (14/1) (inexperienced having had only 4 runs in his life, 2 over fences, one of which he jumped round alone), Merchant Royal (20/1) who looks more likely to go for the Foxhunter and Oscar Dan Dan (16/1) who looks on the downgrade as a 10 year old. Viking Blond (20/1) showed useful form when not disgraced behind Grands Crus at Newbury and was a close 4th to Join Together at Cheltenham. However Nigel Twiston-Davies is adamant he needs really soft ground so, like Teaforthree, it's a watching brief for now.

There are plenty in with chances at this early stage in what is looking a wide-open renewal. My ante-post shortlist would include Universal Soldier (16/1) who has looked a good novice when encountering decent ground, going down by 1l (levels) to the useful Chariot Charger at Uttoxeter (3m) on his fencing debut and when slamming Chartreux over an extended 3m at Towcester. He jumped well on his first start for Charlie Longsdon and this 142 rated hurdler looks as likely a winner as any at this stage. He's to have one more race before going for the 4 miler. Another who looked the right type for this was Benbane Head (25/1) but he was pulled up as if amiss when running off 136 behind The Minack last time. He had previously looked a decent out and out staying novice on fast ground. If he were to prove his wellbeing before the Festival he would come into it.

However, the line of form that has impressed me most was a heavy ground 3m novice chase at Chepstow in December where Alfie Spinner (generally 12/1, though a standout 16s with Coral) beat Maringo Bay (33/1) by 1 1/4l (levels). Alfie Spinner is a confirmed mudlark (long term aim is next season's Welsh National) who relished that ground and it's hard to see why Maringo Bay isn't a similar price, especially as Charlie Mann believes that the race came too soon for Maringo Bay (22 days since his previous run) and he ran flat [LISTEN HERE].

Maringo Bay was a 138 rated novice hurdler last season, (beat Teaforthree easily at Ffos Las) and was a close 3rd to Mamlook on his sole try over fences. On his seasonal reappearance he ran a fine race in a strong 2m4f novice chase at Plumpton won by the smart Invictus, where he got within 1l of Gift of Dgab (who gave 7lb) for 2nd. The runner up has since finished 2nd in a Grade 1 and the winner is held in high regard by Alan King so this looks smart form. There are 2 reasons why I'm hopeful he can step up on it.

Firstly, he's by a Strong Gale mare whose progeny have liked good, quick ground which he hasn't encountered yet, and who have been stayers. However, whilst Charlie Mann says he'll stay 4m and that he jumps well, contrary to what Maringo Bay's breeding suggests, Mann believes he needs some cut in the ground and if the Festival ground came up really quick he wouldn't run (not entered in any of the other level weights novice chases). The second positive is the form of Charlie Mann's stable, which having had only a couple of winners in the previous 2 months, has hit form with 2 winners and 3 seconds from his last 5 runners which augers better for 5 weeks time.

As Mann says, it's likely that the top amateur jockey, Derek O'Connor, will be booked by an Irish stable but he'd be a massive boost to Maringo Bay's chances if he did ride, and even for a trainer who's generally positive about his horse's chances, to talk about booking the number one rider has to be a vote of confidence.

At this stage the race looks particularly open and race specialists like Jonjo O'Neill and Ferdy Murphy don't look to have an obvious contender. Maringo Bay is the one horse who looks a lot better than his current price indicates and with none of those at the front of the market having strong credentials I'm keen to risk fast ground ruling him out and have a small bet on this 33/1 shot now, before looking at the race again nearer the time.


http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/maringo-to-strike-in-4-miler/article/845600

Great stuff BJG,this kind of stuff makes the forum worth reading

Totally agree MC. It makes such a change to read quality write ups instead of the sometimes childish utterances you read on here sometimes.... Respect BJG.

Thats from the link at the bottom nt me btw

i am half way thru write ups for 2 handicaps tho and hopefully be up for Sunday

great work, nice read.

Very good read, nice one BJG on that note i just had 20ew  33s come on.

Nice write up BJG and might have a small bet on him as have been grafting in this race and he is a nice price considering his form...just wonder if he wants a tad more cut in the ground but at the price he isn't a forlorn hope..

Great write up that,type of post I really enjoy reading

Nobody mentioned the winner yet.....Start Me Up looks tailor made for the race. Stays all day, goes on any ground, running a blinder at Cheltenham last year until badly hampered and absolutley cantering over 3m 5f last week when brought down on the bend. He's a stayer with a touch of class and if his jumping holds up (can fiddle the odd one) must go very close

Ye quite like him myself yort and was keeping him up my sleeve...but came down with still a long way to go the last day and had raced freely up till then...just go steady

I like him but think he should be a bigger price on the back of that 25+

Given that Gigginstown will probably only run two in the race (Fists of Fury plus one other) it's quite possible that Start Me Up will run in either the Kim Muir or WH or possibly just wait for the Irish National. I agree theres a pot in him alright.

I can see that logic but I doubt Gigginstown will be banking on fists of fury to win. His last two runs he's jumped scratchy in the main and poorly in places. TBH i wouldnt be confident he would get around and if he does the kind of mistakes he makes will surely take their toll in the latter stages of a 4 mile race. I think connections would be aware that start me up handled the undulations of cheltenham really well over hurdles last year (hadn't been asked any kind of question having travelled wide throughout when brought to a standstill by faller in front of him) and would see him as a much better prospect than Crash, who seems to have a marked preference for heavy ground. Until recently i really thought that Gigginstown would make a huge impact at this years festival. Confidence is tempered somewhat by the recent withdrawls of Quito and Last Instalment. As for Start Me Ups last race I think he was just travelling strongly s opposed to very freely when he was brought down. Trust me Ive watched this lad in the flesh and on the box from day one and he will stay. Even as a hurldler he looked to be crying out for extreme distances and better ground. If he gets there he would be my nap of the meeting and I would fully expext him to start shorter in the market than FOF.

I would largely agree with most of what you say above yort. I am coming from Gigginstowns point of view in guessing what will run where. On his last run in a good graded race Fists of Fury would be deemed to be there number one horse. Assuming he turns up then Derek O' Connor will ride him. After that I believe whether Medical card runs or not will be a deciding factor on whether Start Me Up runs. Charlie Swan would be very keen to book Nina for the ride but she would be unavailable if Meades has a run. If this was the case I wouldn't be surprised if Swan redirected him for another race. I, like you, believe the horse would relish the step up in trip. He has a touch of class and also stays extremely well. I was at Galway a few years ago when he was running under a penalty in a 2m4f winners bumper. He was best for most of the race but battled on gamely up the hill to get on top near the line. He next went to Cheltenham for another bumper on better ground and hosed up suggesting a stiff finish suits him very well (many of his better runs last year also came on tracks with uphill finishes). If he runs he would have an outstanding chance but I would say his participation would be questionable if Nina is unavailable (Kevin Power would be a suitable replacement imo should both he and Medical Card run). I would be surprised if Crash doesn't run as all he does is stay and connections would be keen to give him the opportunity to run in a four mile novice chase as it's his only opportunity to do so. It is quite likely that Robbie McNamara will ride him (or JT if Robbie is claimed by Weld).

Basically I think there are a couple of variables to be considered when deciding to back Start Me Up ante post as outlined above. While they often run numerous horses in the same race here I would be a little surprised if they adopt such tactics in Cheltenham and instead spread them out between the other races. In addition if Nina isn't available then I wouldn't be surprised if Start Me Up is rerouted to another race even though personally I feel the NH Chase to be his best chance of winning.

An interesting contest at Navan today with this race in mind - Davy Russell has picked Four Commanders over Start Me Up (though latters jockey isnt too bad :))

Don't dismiss Rocky Creek on what he;s done so far on the track, I know connections think a hell of alot of this horse and there'll be improvement in him come March....

Wrong thread - apologies

Some eyecatchin runs today - Four Commanders stays longer than the mother in law!

Four Commanders does appear a thorough stayer but 6 year olds have a poor record in this, it's such an extreme stamina test at 6 most horses are considered immature/weak, Chicago Grey was 8 when winning last year. Tricky Trickster won at 6 two years ago but was the first since Boraceva in 1989, 7 and 8 year olds are the ones to be with....

Scratching made for 22
The remainder pay scratching deadline fee

Alfie Spinner (IRE) (Alan Beard & Brian Beard) Nick Williams ............................. 7 11 6
Allee Garde (FR) (Doran Bros (London) Limited) W. P. Mullins, Ireland............ 7 11 6
Baile Anrai (IRE) (Massive) Ian Williams....................................................................... 8 11 6
Ben’s Folly (IRE) (Mr David Lovell) Tim Vaughan........................................................ 7 11 6
Benbane Head (USA) (Mrs Louise Jones) Martin Keighley..................................... 8 11 6
Beneficial Reform (IRE) (Mr M. Tedham) James Ewart............................................ 7 11 6
Best Legend (IRE) (Mr Patrick Heffernan) Stuart Crawford, Ireland .................. 10 11 6
Blenheim Brook (IRE) (The County Set Three) Lucinda Russell.......................... 7 11 6
Bob ’n’ You (IRE) (Mr T. J. & Mrs H. Parrott) Ian Williams..................................... 9 11 6
Brunswick Gold (IRE) (Mr P. J. Martin) Steve Gollings.............................................. 7 11 6
Call Box (IRE) (Mr S. McAlister) Stuart Crawford, Ireland ...................................... 7 11 6
Cotswold Charmer (IRE) (The Double Octagon Partnership)
Nigel Twiston-Davies................................................................. 7 11 6
Cottage Oak (IRE) (Mrs Pat Sloan) Gordon Elliott, Ireland .................................... 9 11 6
Court Red Handed (IRE) (Mr P. Chapman) Sarah Humphrey............................... 7 11 6
Daffern Seal (IRE) (Dr R. Lambe) D. K. Weld, Ireland............................................. 8 11 6
Definite Dawn (IRE) (Mr Robert Kirkland) Tim Vaughan......................................... 8 11 6
Eight Is My Number (M White/M Reeder/E Johansen-Wooder)
Gordon Elliott, Ireland........................................................................ 6 11 6
Fists of Fury (IRE) (Gigginstown House Stud) Charles Byrnes, Ireland .............. 8 11 6
Four Commanders (IRE) (Gigginstown House Stud) M. F. Morris, Ireland...... 6 11 6
Glens Boy (IRE) (Lady Bamford & Alice Bamford) Henrietta Knight................... 8 11 6
Gorge (AUS) (Mrs R. N. Cosgriff) Anthony Cosgriff................................................... 10 11 6
Graduation Night (Martin Broughton Racing Partners) Jamie Snowden ............ 6 11 6
Harry The Viking (Sir A Ferguson,G Mason,R Wood & P Done)
Paul Nicholls ............................................................................... 7 11 6
Iron Chancellor (IRE) (Mrs Lesley Field,J Sigler & D Anderson) Alan King...... 7 11 6
King of The Refs (IRE) (Mr E. Waters) A. J. Martin, Ireland .................................. 7 11 6
Leggy Lad (IRE) (Mr Michael McConville) S. McConville, Ireland......................... 9 11 6
Lively Baron (IRE) (Mr Trevor Hemmings) Donald McCain.................................... 7 11 6
Loose Preformer (IRE) (Kerr-Dineen, Lloyd Webber & Nielsen)
Nicky Henderson...................................................................... 6 11 6
Manger Hanagment (IRE) (Robert Rafferty/S. McAuley)
Gordon Elliott, Ireland........................................................................ 7 11 6
Marble House (IRE) (Mrs S. Neville) Seamus Neville, Ireland ............................... 6 11 6
Maringo Bay (IRE) (John & Peter Heron) Charlie Mann .......................................... 7 11 6
Mister Hyde (IRE) (Bensaranat Club & Mr W McLuskey) Jonjo O’Neill ........... 7 11 6
Mister Philson (IRE) (Mr L. Phillips) Stuart Crawford, Ireland .............................. 7 11 6
Monbeg Dude (IRE) (Oydunow) Michael Scudamore................................................ 7 11 6
Negus de Beaumont (FR) (Mr J. Tierney & F. Murphy) Ferdy Murphy............ 11 11 6
Nodebateaboutit (Sharon C. Nelson & Dermot O’Donohoe) Tom George ... 7 11 6
Not So Sure **** (IRE) (Peter Earl, Lin Baker & Irene Paterson)
George Baker.......................................................................... 7 11 6
Oscar Close (IRE) (Mr Wayne Hennessey) George Baker....................................... 7 11 6
Oscar Dan Dan (IRE) (Mrs M. Martin) A. J. Martin, Ireland................................... 10 11 6
Our Island (IRE) (Mr D. W. Fox) Tim Vaughan ............................................................ 7 11 6
Rif (FR) (The Patient Partnership) Alex Hales................................................................. 7 11 6
River d’Or (FR) (G. Doel & C. J. Leech) Sophie Leech............................................. 7 11 6
Robobar (FR) (Mr D. W. Fox) Ian Williams..................................................................... 7 11 6
Sensational Sema (IRE) (Pats Bar Syndicate) A. J. Martin, Ireland...................... 8 11 6
Soll (Mr Derrick Mossop) W. P. Mullins, Ireland ............................................................. 7 11 6
State Benefit (IRE) (Mr Michael Buckley) Nicky Henderson ................................. 7 11 6
Strongbows Legend (Box A45) Charlie Longsdon ...................................................... 7 11 6
Teaforthree (IRE) (T437) Rebecca Curtis ....................................................................... 8 11 6
Trendelenburg (IRE) (Barstool Prophets Syndicate) Gordon Elliott, Ireland .... 7 11 6
Universal Soldier (IRE) (Lindie Donaldson & Regan King) Charlie Longsdon. 7 11 6
Up The Beat (Mrs A. M. Varmen/R. J. D. Varmen) W. P. Mullins, Ireland.......... 7 11 6
Viking Blond (FR) (Mrs Caroline Mould) Nigel Twiston-Davies ............................ 7 11 6
Your Busy (IRE) (Mr Ronan O’Gara) James A. Nash, Ireland ................................. 9 11 6
Taratata Sivola (FR) (Palatinate Thoroughbred Racing Limited) David Pipe.... 5 11 4
Askanna (IRE) (J. Asple) Colin Bowe, Ireland................................................................ 7 10 13
Mid Div And Creep (Mrs K. Exall) Lawney Hill............................................................ 12 10 13
Our Victoria (IRE) (R. Furlong) Colin Bowe, Ireland ................................................. 7 10 13

NH Chase fancy Teaforthree will run at Chepstow on Saturday as final prep before the Festival four-miler.

WHAT ABOUT Soll

What was everyone's thoughts on Teaforthree at Chepstow today? Won well enough but despite preparing to get stuck in to him at 12/1, I am worried about the fact that that race may have taken a little bit out of him with only 2 weeks to go. Anyone at Chepstow today who thinks otherwise or has their own opinion?????

What was everyone's thoughts on Teaforthree at Chepstow today? Won well enough but despite preparing to get stuck in to him at 12/1, I am worried about the fact that that race may have taken a little bit out of him with only 2 weeks to go. Anyone at Chepstow today who thinks otherwise or has their own opinion?????

Who are the best Amateur riders in Engerland atm

(reminds me of another thread on this race i nthe last few years)

Rebecca Curtis is looking forward to running Teaforthree in the Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase after his victory at Chepstow on Saturday.

The eight-year-old got back on the winning path in a three-mile novice chase after being pulled up behind Grands Crus in the Feltham Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Curtis is confident Teaforthree will see out the four-mile trip at Prestbury Park on March 14. He is being aimed at that race rather than the RSA Chase.

"He's come out of it really well. AP (Tony McCoy) said they didn't go too quick and he looked after him for the Festival. He said he could have made him look more impressive," said the Newport trainer.

"He's definitely going for the four-miler at Cheltenham now. The trip will be no bother for him."

John Thomas McNamara will partner leading Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase hope Teaforthree in next Wednesday's contest at Cheltenham.

McNamara is three times a winner at the Cheltenham Festival and again appears to hold leading claims in the four-mile contest for amateurs.

Trainer Rebecca Curtis said: "JT's never ridden for me before, but he's a very good jockey and is very experienced around Cheltenham.
"I'm sure he'll be looking forward to it."

Despite having been pulled up in the Feltham Novices' Chase at Kempton on St Stephen's Day, Teaforthree has won two of his last three races in the style of a hardy stayer.

Newport-based Curtis added: "He's in great form and is very well at home.

Good reading on this thread. I'm just having a good look at this race. What are your thoughts on Glens Boy?

Form took a nice boost last weekend - has a few lbs to find but seems to stay all day

1:30    NATIONAL HUNT AM CSE     4m    34 ENTRIES

Alfie Spinner (IRE) 7    11 6
Allee Garde (FR) 7    11 6
Ben's Folly (IRE) 7    11 6
Benbane Head (USA) 8    11 6
Blenheim Brook (IRE) 7    11 6
Bob 'n' You (IRE) 9    11 6
Brunswick Gold (IRE) 7    11 6
Cottage Oak (IRE) 9    11 6
Court Red Handed (IRE) 7    11 6
Daffern Seal (IRE) 8    11 6
Four Commanders (IRE) 6    11 6
Glens Boy (IRE) 8    11 6
Gorge (AUS) 10    11 6
Graduation Night (GB) 6    11 6
Harry The Viking (GB) 7    11 6
Iron Chancellor (IRE) 7    11 6
Leggy Lad (IRE) 9    11 6
Lively Baron (IRE) 7    11 6
Monbeg Dude (IRE) 7    11 6
Nodebateaboutit (GB) 7    11 6
Not So Sure **** (IRE) 7    11 6
Oscar Close (IRE) 7    11 6
Our Island (IRE) 7    11 6
River d'Or (FR) 7    11 6
Sensational Sema (IRE) 8    11 6
Soll (GB) 7    11 6
State Benefit (IRE) 7    11 6
Strongbows Legend (GB) 7    11 6
Teaforthree (IRE) 8    11 6
Universal Soldier (IRE) 7    11 6
Viking Blond (FR) 7    11 6
Your Busy (IRE) 9    11 6
Mid Div And Creep (GB) 12    10 13
Our Victoria (IRE) 7    10 13

O/Rs for the 4 miler (praying this formats ok).  Comparing ratings with prices, I thought Daffern Seal, Blenheim Brook, Your Busy, Viking Blond, Bob 'n You and Our Victoria were amongst the more interesting ones, particularly Daffern Seal and Your Busy. 


Teaforthree (IRE) 8.g    Rebecca Curtis    11st 6lb    146       
Allee Garde (FR) 7.g    W. P. Mullins, Ireland    11st 6lb    142       
Daffern Seal (IRE) 8.g    D. K. Weld, Ireland    11st 6lb    140       
Soll 7.g    W. P. Mullins, Ireland    11st 6lb    139       
Alfie Spinner (IRE) 7.g    Nick Williams    11st 6lb    138       
Blenheim Brook (IRE) 7.g    Lucinda Russell    11st 6lb    138       
Universal Soldier (IRE) 7.g    Charlie Longsdon    11st 6lb    138       
Four Commanders (IRE) 6.g    M. F. Morris, Ireland    11st 6lb    137       
Harry The Viking 7.g    Paul Nicholls    11st 6lb    137       
Benbane Head (USA) 8.g    Martin Keighley    11st 6lb    136       
Viking Blond (FR) 7.g    Nigel Twiston-Davies    11st 6lb    135       
Your Busy (IRE) 9.g    James A. Nash, Ireland    11st 6lb    135       
Bob 'n' You (IRE) 9.g    Ian Williams    11st 6lb    131       
Our Victoria (IRE) 7.m    Colin Bowe, Ireland    10st 13lb    131       
Court Red Handed (IRE) 7.g    Sarah Humphrey    11st 6lb    130       
Our Island (IRE) 7.g    Tim Vaughan    11st 6lb    130       
Strongbows Legend 7.g    Charlie Longsdon    11st 6lb    130       
Leggy Lad (IRE) 9.g    S. McConville, Ireland    11st 6lb    128       
State Benefit (IRE) 7.g    Nicky Henderson    11st 6lb    128       
Ben's Folly (IRE) 7.g    Tim Vaughan    11st 6lb    127       
Iron Chancellor (IRE) 7.g    Alan King    11st 6lb    127       
Cottage Oak (IRE) 9.g    Gordon Elliott, Ireland    11st 6lb    125       
Lively Baron (IRE) 7.g    Donald McCain    11st 6lb    125       
Graduation Night 6.g    Jamie Snowden    11st 6lb    124       
Monbeg Dude (IRE) 7.g    Michael Scudamore    11st 6lb    122       
Mid Div And Creep 12.m    Lawney Hill    10st 13lb    122       
Glens Boy (IRE) 8.g    Henrietta Knight    11st 6lb    119       
Gorge (AUS) 10.g    Anthony Cosgriff    11st 6lb    119       
Brunswick Gold (IRE) 7.g    Steve Gollings    11st 6lb    117       
Oscar Close (IRE) 7.g    George Baker    11st 6lb    112       
Nodebateaboutit 7.g    Tom George    11st 6lb    111       
River d'Or (FR) 7.g    Sophie Leech    11st 6lb    110       
Not So Sure **** (IRE) 7.g    George Baker    11st 6lb    107       
Sensational Sema (IRE) 8.g    A. J. Martin, Ireland    11st 6lb    100

Nice work HM. Thought Your Busy ran a cracker @Chelt in Oct behind Traffic Article, he doesn't do anything in a hurry tho, wheras the Weld horse laughed at Traffic Article @Galway, jumping really well and looking a real prospect that day. I was looking at Askanna here but she's not been declared, Bowe has kept his other mare Our Victoria in and with the weight she's also in the mix.

Id be starting to look at animals that have done it on quick ground, we are at the moment, a whole point faster at this stage last year according to stick readings and he was at this very time on the friday busy watering


And then Al ferof hits 3-52 in the opener!!

Cheers liam.  I've added both of them to the portfolio.

Absolutely, zil.  Any horse I'm backing atm must have shown something on quick ground.  Gonna be rattlin' up there again......

...which would worry me if I was a T43 supporter

Daffern at 25/1 defo the bet right now for this.

Yep, only caveat being it's going to be some performance to win this after just 2 chase starts and a 203 day absence, dunno what the stats are regarding these points, stats will always be broken tho by design. If Daffern shows up for the gig, he wont be trading @25s, so that's the play (NRNB) for me also.

Someone's just tole me Weld CANNOT train a winner at the Fez.  That's not right, is it?!?

Rare Holiday??

I fancy Hisaabaat on this better ground if the blinkers are kept on for the triumph

Yep that's his only winner.

Excellent thread......also a fan of this race....no Jonjo/Ferdy plots times are a changing!!

As highlighted the forecast ground adds another puzzle with formlines on much softer ground.

Fwiw two on the radar are Universal soldier and Benbane Head.

Powder will remain firmly dry until final decs,as an experienced pilot can be worth a few pounds.

GL

Am on Teaforthree at 12/1 which i'm happy with. But have always thought  Viking Blond would relish this sort of trip. Regarded as an out and out stayer, acts at the course, strong galloper and good jumper. seems to be the right type for the race.

Two concerns are the ground and awful trainer form. Thoughts on the Viking's chances?

IC......Definate player and another who may go off much shorter,ground looks ok, NTD seems out of form every chelt...and yet he invariably pulls at least one from somewhere.

Nina booked to ride Four Commanders

Left this alone in the end, was going round in circles

excellent news ...thanks BJG

On the ratings Glens Boy should not be anywhere near good enough to take this but that is reflected in the price.  I think it will improve dramatically for the big step up in trip, which of course he will need to, and can run a big race at a big price.
would like to know who is booked to ride though.

Allee Garde is one of my bets of the festival in this race.  Could see him going off 3/1 or 4/1 such is the strong vibes around for this one.

Ted Walsh was very bullish about his chances.

1:30    

Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+) Winner £44,970 20 runners 4m Good CH4

NO.     FORM     HORSE     AGE     WGT     TRAINER RTF%     JOCKEY     OR     TS     RPR
1     24123         Alfie Spinner 25     7     11-6     Nick Williams     Mr S Waley-Cohen     138     133     153
2     1-4133         Allee Garde 53     7     11-6     W P Mullins53     Mr P W Mullins     142     63     156
3     1-712P         Ben´s Folly 25 p     7     11-6     Tim Vaughan27     Mr Matthew Barber     127     122     137
4     222121         Blenheim Brook 37     7     11-6     Lucinda Russell42     Mr J T Carroll     138     90     145
5     23/2-0         Bob ´N´ You 21     9     11-6     Ian Williams71     Mr S Drinkwater     131     —     —
6     521530         Cottage Oak 11     9     11-6     Gordon Elliott62     Mr K E Power     125     124     136
7     121362         Court Red Handed 47 tb     7     11-6     Sarah Humphrey50     Mr M Ennis     130     128     143
8     4/114         Daffern Seal 203     8     11-6     D K Weld     Mr R P McNamara     140     123     142
9     212242         Four Commanders 24     6     11-6     M F Morris20     Miss N Carberry     137     131     147
10     2-1111         Harry The Viking 76     7     11-6     Paul Nicholls62     Mr W Biddick     137     140     157
11     33314         Iron Chancellor 26 b1     7     11-6     Alan King42     Mr R G Henderson     127     112     141
12     011F6U         Leggy Lad 38     9     11-6     Stephen McConville100     Mr M McConville     128     115     140
13     421331         Lively Baron 19 b     7     11-6     Donald McCain63     Mr R O Harding     125     131     146
14     429265         Our Island 25 p     7     11-6     Tim Vaughan27     Mr B Gibbs     130     137     139
15     1/1-21         Soll 42     7     11-6     W P Mullins53     Ms K Walsh     139     124     150
16     4-F124         State Benefit 24     7     11-6     Nicky Henderson42     Mr N de Boinville     128     124     136
17     281F3P         Strongbows Legend 22 p     7     11-6     Charlie Longsdon47     Mr M Wall     130     131     145
18     321P1         Teaforthree 18     8     11-6     Rebecca Curtis43     Mr J T McNamara     146     151     161
19     1-2P1         Universal Soldier 52     7     11-6     Charlie Longsdon47     Mr R P Quinlan     138     114     154
20     2F23P4         Our Victoria 17     7     10-13     Colin Bowe100     Mr B O'Neill     131     116     147