Long Run - a case for his price being outstanding value.

I think that's a very reasonable arguement. My doubt is that LR may not be able to run to a mark in the 180s. Many horses just can't do it again after a very hard gold cup like he had in 2011. However, if you believe the official ratings from the King George then LR can still run in the 180s.

I assume you're considering ORs since Kauto has run to an RPR in the 180s something like 15 times including (I believe) both his Gold Cup wins? He officially rated 179 and 186 for his Gold Cup wins I think. I agree with you it would be suprising if anything else in the field runs to a 180ish mark (though of course Gold Cup wins are often a career best).

i think he may very well win the GC,but to say he's "outstanding value" is just plain silly

I think the ratings are a bit inflated myself  and that KS isn't as good as he was - maybe 175ish now, on that basis there may yet be a danger not known about.  Remember last time there was a 2 horse race in the GC?    There is an opportunity for something else to get into the picture by stepping up in a trial, Argento or Irish most likely.  Time For Rupert has serious class, Captain Chris is seriously tough, Quel Esprit could be anything.  I'd need to see one of them prove it with a good success first.  If none of them do, then yes 5/2 becomes pretty solid value...

Thieves - I agree there's still tieme for something to step up in the Aon, Argento or Hennessey. Jessies dream maybe, Quel Espirt, Burton Port, Synchronised could cofirm/improve his form.

I have to quibble with "Time for Rupert has serious class though". The horse has never won a class 1 chase (let alone a grade one). His higest grade win was a Listed handicap hurdle. If he has this serious class, he really ought to show it on a racecourse at some stage.

good argument and mine exactly. Your only worry if kauto star wasnt right last year he may be well capable of running to 180+ here. outside the top two i cant have them.

ONE FACT THOUGH.....GRAND CRUS RAN A BLOODY QUICK TIME LAST TIME OUT!!

Yeah, but I think that's a red herring Howdi.

For NH races, they are timed from the tape going up. If you watch the Feltham and the King George, in the Felt the front runners were right on the tape and galloping when the race started. In the KG, the field were a long way back from the tape and took several seconds to get going (at a canter) once it went up. That accounts for almost all of the absolute time difference between the 2 races.

Accoridng to James Pyman's hand timed figures, GC and KS ran the second circuits of the races in an almost identical time, which may be more relevant. GC carried 3 lb less. What may also be significant is that KS ran almost the entire race 3 or 4 horses wide off the rail, whereas GC ran most of his on the rail. Crudely, that means KS ran 4 or 5 l further than GC, but it's also possible he found better ground.

All of which makes it difficult to draw many meaningful conclusions beyond GC was impressive for a novice.

must admit I am totally discombobulated by the Gold Cup as I cannot see a probable winner. I can see the "Long Run wins by default" argument yet he is faced with the horrible stats about defending champions returning in the Gold Cup which puts me off at the price. Kauto has the horrible age stat to overcome and I deffo won't be backing him.

Of the rest I can't see one with the necessary class to win a Gold Cup

Judo - it's a tough one for trends isn't it, as it was in 2011. I think your last line is most revealing (and probably correct) though - only LR and KS appear to have the necessary class and that will be decisive for me in my betting strategy as we get closer to the race, despite the ugly stats to be overcome.

stront-  if u think uve seen the best of long run ur very much mistsaking, to say the gold cup win is a horses career best is proberly true, but do u honestly think that last year long run winning the gold cup as a 6yo is going to be the peak of his career ur way off the mark in my opinion,  i wud be suprised if long run doesnt win another 1 or 2 gold cups, i think the gold cup trip is made for him

Denman, I agree the Gold Cup C&D appears to suit Long Run. He's a worthy favourite.

As for his age, that has to be balanced against miles on the clock, of which he has a lot (especially for a 7 year old). Most Gold Cup winners tend to be progressive horses running in their 6th-12th chase. Even Best Mate was only running his 13th chase in his 3rd Gold Cup. In recent years only the immortals (Kauto 2nd time, Dessie) have won above the high end of this window. Long Run will probably be running in his 14th (plus 8 hurldes). I genuinely can't judge which is more important - Long Run's youth, or the effects of wear and tear which inevitably lessen performance.

Also, we've often seem horses give their best Gold cup run at the first go. Sometimes they can't put themseleves through it again either physically or mentally. That's one reason why we don't get many repeat winners. The horse whose name you've taken is an exmple of this.

^I should add I don't see the wear and tear point as a huge negative for Long Run in 2012, but I fully expect time to be catching up with him by 2013 if raced normally.

My concern with the figures that have been given to long run and kauto in the king George have come thro captain Chris

They gave captain Chris a near career high mark, even tho his trainer said he had an interrupted prep, didn't jump well or travel at all

I think the race has been overrated by a good 5lbs so that could bring improvers into the reckoning

and I don't rate the jockey

seriously though I will have to be looking to oppose the top two in the market which may just mean laying them both if I can't find something to back against them - just on trends and price grounds you understand

Brandy, could well  be - it must have been a beast of a race to rate. However, I thought the Betfair was underrated (based on Weird Al, Time for Rupert), which would put it at around your King George - 5 lb.

think theres more like 20 lbs between the top 2 and anything else, , what a friend ran a career best and cudnt get within 10 l of the winner, i honestly cant see anything get near the top 2, even if captain chris runs a blinder still cant see him getting within 10 lengths of long run,18 l behind around kemp, surely wil be even further behind around chelt wiv the extra distance in long runs favour

@Brandy

the case for saying the KG form was over rated could be very strong. The debate about races times will rage on and on.

However, RPR rated the KG 17lb higher than the Feltham. Do we really believe that to be true on the day of the races? A race run slower over the same C&D rates more than a stone higher....

I have my doubts too

Yes, the KG is well overrated for all reasons mentioned above.  I have mentioned previously that I believe KS probably running to same mark as last year as I can't believe he's improving at his age and as such LR is obviously below last year.  However on form seen they are still the best.  But the question of whether LR is a good price has to be no.  I agree with Stront about GC being a creer best run and the fact that only Best Mate has retained it in last 40 years bears this out IMO.

Shock - I can't believe Kauto was as good in the January King george as in December. In Jan he was stuggling half a mile out, didn't jump well, belted one in the straight. He was also found to bleed and be unwell.

I agree he isn't getting any better overall, but I do believe he had a below form season in 2010-11 for whatever reason. Otherwise you have to believe he deteriorated by 20-30 lbs between Dec 2009 and Jan 2011, which also seems somewhat unlikley.

great post strontium hadnt considered that

Anyone think that Kauto could just do it. Any other horse winning a Betfair Chase and King George would be favourite for this race. These stats get broken every year (5 yr olds in champion hurdles etc). I personally am looking for value, Kauto is value for me and all the nostalgic money on the day will shorten his price in my opinion which means the possibility of trading out.

This will be a two horse race gold cup, the only challengers would have been Weapons Amnesty or Denman.

I totally agree with strontium's point. Anybody in any doubt should get the two races up on you tube. Kauto wasn't right in the King George last year and travelled poorly. This year he was bouncing out of his skin and yet Long Run got within a closing length of him having made a bit of a horlicks of the last. While visually far more impressive last year I don't see any reason to rate Long Run's KG performance any worse this year and arguably slightly better. The bottom line is that he has shown his well being and shown that he is at least the horse he was last year. Unless the ground is like a road I expect him to do Kauto with the rest burned off by the home turn.

Still it is all about opinions. That is mine and I have bet accordingly.

Onthesnaff

I'd certainly be interested to know why you think it silly. Is there a couple of likely 180+ horses I've discounted?

Hi Eeternaloptimist, might also be an idea if you're so sweet on LR to throw a few quid on the 4 champions retaining their crowns. HF, SE and BB will surely take alot of beating. I know this bet never comes up but maybe this will be the year. 50/1 available and maybe bigger if you shop around

Not a bad shout given I think they are all strong favourites. Of course Hurricane Fly not running with the other three winning might just send you to the funny farm but that is life and as crazy as it seems I could still see Binocular serving it up to the Hurricane if everything fell into place on the day.

I had the biggest e/w bet of my life on Long Run last year at 6/1; couldn't see him out of the 3 and as it got closer to the off became convinced he was going to win. Just not sure this year, theres a few horses at decent prices who you think 'hmm yer maybe they'll improve for the ground/distance/whatever' and of course Kauto is back bouncing

Very interesting. Which ones did you have in mind and under what circumstances?

Lets look at this from a slightly different angle. Getting older has many disadvantages but one of the few advantages it has is that it persuades you of the benefits of looking at things from a historical perspective. If you take the last 20 years one thing shouts at you loud and clear. A normal gold cup is won by a horse capable of running to a mark in the low 170's. Occasionally you get horses putting up very good gold cup performances which see them run to a mark in the mid to high 170's. You hardly ever get a horse capable of breaching 180. Speaking historically in that time frame you have 1 that put up a great performance on unusually soft ground which was ideal for that horse which was Master Oats. He wasn't anything out of the ordinary in terms of gold cup horses he just got his ideal conditions on the day but was out with the washing in his next race off a mark of 173 which if his true mark post gold cup was 181 should have seen him go very close.

Then you have this era which has seen three outstanding horses in Kauto, Denman and briefly Imperial Commander. All put in more than one performance in excess of 180. Given the historical precedents it is no surprise that Kauto and Denman have come back year after year often under conditions less than ideal but still gone close or won. That is what being a 180+ horse allows you to do. Even last year at 11 when you would have expected them to have been on the downslope they were still way too good for everything else bar Long Run. I know What A Friend got close to Kauto at the end but he was ridden to place.

Which leaves us with Long Run. Because we have been spoiled over the last few years with those 3 mentioned above it is easy to become complacent about the emergence of another 180+ horse but as I say when you look at the historical precedents before the emergence of Kauto there simply wasn't a horse in the last 20 years who could run to his mark at Cheltenham.

Which returns me to my starting point. If he gives his running he will run to a mark in the low 180's. Best Mate couldn't get near that in 3 winning attempts. Is there even a new Best Mate in this potential field let alone an as yet underappreciated super star like Long Run?

I agree EO that there is a chance that the ratings in general have become inflated, this is what can happen when you hand out one monster mark, as happened with Kautos KG a few years back. Nonetheless, I also think that it's fairly clear that the level of form demonstrated by LR and KS is a decent amount ahead of anything else we have seen thus far.
However, I've been watching this game a long time and if history teacehes us anything, it is that a horses best chance to win a gold cup, comes at it's first attempt and that winning it again is the preserve of the very special (or in Best Mates case, brilliantly campaigned and weak oppos).That's not to say that LR can't do it, but he would be joining a select group that even horses of the quality of Dessie and Denman aren't in. Failing to win again since and being beaten by a 12yo do not scream 'all-time-great' to me.
I agree that he is a worthy favourite on the figures and I think he might well beat KS, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one beat him. As you have said, running to something around 175 has historically been enough, I think it will be this year and there are one or two capable. Captain Chris is my fancy, gets better as the season wears on, the trainer seems to think he get the trip (has there ever being an untried contender where there are not these doubts?), has won at the festival before and has the requisite class to achieve that kind of mark. I wouldn't rule out TFR either and have had a small nibble.

I definitely would rule out TFR - highest grade he has won in was a Listed handicap hurdle. That is not suggestive of a GC winner really

Desmond

Dessie wasn't in it because Cheltenham and in particular left handed wasn't really his thing. He was lucky to win one. Denman was unlucky in that he had to contend with this curious clerk notion that you put so much drainage in as to usually guarantee a road and then have to water to produce good ground. Had he had his ground subsequently my view is he would have won more than 1 gold cup despite his health problems.

Agreed Long Run hasn't won since the gold cup but he has only run twice. Once was his seasonal reappearance which based on his first run last year usually puts him right for the second race. The second race being the King George where he was closing rapidly on the run to the line having proven his staying credentials last year at the gold cup.

Where were the rest in the King George? Kauto proved at Haydock and again in the King George that he is still running to a very high standard and travelling better in his races than last year.

It would take a massive leap of faith to give Captain Chris anything but a place chance. Is he really going to improve for going up that hill 3 times? He certainly didn't look like an out and out stayer at Kempton.

As for whether Long Run is an all time great that will be decided on his exploits over the full course of his career. As it is he is only just 7 and out of his last 5 performances has posted marks around or in excess of 180 3 times with his other two being seasonal reappearances. That marks him down as a horse of rare quality and if he gives his running at Cheltenham any of the others who can only post a mark of 175 will be trailing in his wake.

Please don't take this as a criticism of your view. I enjoy the debate.

Eeternaloptimist
24 Jan 12 23:51 Joined: 28 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 8,543 | Blogger: Eeternaloptimist's blog
Onthesnaff

I'd certainly be interested to know why you think it silly. Is there a couple of likely 180+ horses I've discounted?

Eh,He's been stuffed twice this season and you think 5/2 is "outstanding value"
Go figure

I thought you were being serious.

Eeternaloptimist - couldn't agree more. Grands Crus woudn't stay the trip on a motorbike any way in my view and has run scared of Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert who are still going around Haydock so can't see him suddenly taking on Long Run and Kauto Star. Like you say, what else is there. Provided they go a good pace which is sometimes in the lap of the gods, the only way I can see Long Run getting beat is if he unseats SWC. All in all, apart from Kauto Star the opposition look average to me, I think on the day he will be around 6/4 so the 3/1 and 11/4 nrnb and even the 9/4 nrnb represents value I agree. Also think What A Friend has a fair chance of placing if they go a good clip as Kauto Star wouldn't stay the trip (like last season). I like the bet like men comment as well. YES. Also agree regarding Binocular, the only horse who on his day I could see beating Hurricane Fly in the champion.

No probs EO, if we all agreed there wouldn't be a market.
As it goes, I have LR down as the most likely winner and (aftertiming alert!) I did back him last year, despite my misgivings about his age. I'm just not sure that the price is value. At 4s I'd be all over him like a rash. As it goes, with the likelihood of a pilotting rick and some doubts regarding his ability to reproduce last years effort (few can), I'm prepared to look elsewhere - with CC the one I think most capable of posting a figure high enough to win what could turn out to be an average Gold Cup.

Hello Swagger! That looks like a "Handicap Snip"

Judorick - Who am I to 'Judge'

forget times in natonal hunt racing generally.races are not run albut flat out like sprints on the flat where times aree important.i only think the only slight relevance  between on jump race and amnother is when you get two nov/hurdles on the same day  same course and even then with willing/unwilling front runners the times still dont  have a huge deal of importance.no doubt in the past theres been times when one of the novice hurdles maybe even handicap hurdles that have been won in faster times than the champ hurdle but i doubt if the thefaster time winner would have stood the slightest hope of winning the champ hurdle if it had run in it.the same applies to chases, arkle run faster than champ chase , rsa faster than gold cup.remember time only matters if youre DOING IT!!!.people say a sloow horse cant run a fast time which of course is true butgood horses can trot up in a comparitively slow time yet be double impressive.as for times compared from one day to another and on different tracks they mean absolutely completely and utterly NOTHING!!!!!.

Swagger, nice to see you around, say hello to your brother for me too

sickof - I'd hope the RSA is run quicker than the Gold Cup, it's 2 furlongs shorter

Serious point - Long Run was closer to Kauto Star at the end of the King George than he was at the start!

I didn't see The Argento but the result seemed illuminating with also rans in last years gold cup filling the first two places and a few live mid priced horses who haven't yet run in one left behind. Can anybody clarify if there were excuses for the others or was it as clear cut as it appeared? If the latter I think it further illustrates how hard it is for 160 horses to make that leap into high 170's or even early 180's territory.

The only horse with excuses that I can see is Captain Chris and it is hard to see him coming back as a Gold Cup horse.  Does he stay?  Is he good enough?  Can he get his jumping sorted out?  Can he cope well enough left handed?    Too many questions for me and I am a fan of the horse!   

I think mid 170s wins the race this year mind you, the LR and KS ratings are inflated.  KS a few lbs below his 8/9/10yo form and LR slightly overrated as a result.

Yes, Time for Rupert. Tidal Bay, Diamond Harry etc just weren't good enough on Saturday - jumped and run ragged in fact.

Thieves - isn't Long Run essentially rated through Denman rather than Kauto Star - presumably Denman's rating (from the Hennessey) is fairly solid.

Stront what mark would you give Midnight Chase after Sat.  I would say 166 based on Tidal Bay and TFR. Still 10 to 12L off the top 2.

Shock - tough question. I'm reluctant to rate anything using Tiday Bay! However, in the Gold Cup MC beat TB by 4 l off levels and here he beat him by 3 l giving 6 lbs. I think it's fair to conclude Diamond Harry is not as good as he was before his injury and ran nowhere near his mark. I also think TFR is somewhat overrated officially. I'd put Midnight Chase on a tentative 167. That would put Knockara Beau in the high 140s which I can believe around Cheltenham.

Now the question re Knockara Beau?  Can't see the handicapper murdering him for this maybe 2 or 3LB, will he jump round Liverpool as will be dangerously weighted?

Well he ran on through beaten horses. He was on 149 just over a year ago, and has just come down to 140. He seems very consistent to me and I've seen him run a number of solid races at Cheltenham overboth hurdles and fences - he gets up the hill well. I expect you're right - up a few pounds, but we'll see tomorrow. Is he being aimed at teh Natiopnal then?

Couldn't tell you what he's being aimed at tbh.  Wouldn't surprise me though if he runs in the hcp on first day Chelt then the National, but just my thoughts.

I don't think Denman was as good last year as previous years Stront.  He was beaten a long way in the Hennessey and RFR of 180 made Diamond Harry a 170!  All of DH's form besides that looks more like a 160 to me.  Only other time he has beaten 160 was behind KS and LR this season, form I think is also being overrated.   

If you downgrade the Hennessey 10lbs and reckon Denman was just a brave 170 horse last season (he was rising 11) the Long Run becomes a 176/177 horse in the Gold Cup, maybe just 174/175 over less testing 3m events.   

Don't get me wrong, I think what KS is achieving is amazing for a horse of his age but I cannot believe he is as good as he was 2 years ago.  My eyes and the clock also agree with that.

Midnight Chase has been put up to 163 from 158 and Knockara Beau 147 from 140.

http://t.co/pwsDcIDU

As do I thieves - I think Kauto's 2009 Gold Cup and King George were his peak.

It's just you said that KS is overrated and as a result so is Long Run. It's probably the other way round - KS's current rating must be beased on his two beatings of Long Run who is probably rated through Denman.

I agree with you there's plenty of room for doubt in the absolute numbers. Demnan running in Hennesseys and Gold Cups was a gift to the handicapper, but the ratings of all our 3 mile chasers are therefore based on him performing similarly in those two races year after year. He always tried and appeared to give his best, but it's a big stretch to say he was the same to the pound.

I agree with you that subsequent races suggest Diamond Harry was over-rated in the Hennessey, but maybe his injury did some permanent damage. We haven't seen Burton Port since so no help there. Maybe Carruthers gives the strongest indication of the form and would suggest Denman ran to high 170s/low 180s?

All that said, Timeform, RPR and BHA all agree more or less on rating Long Run and Kauto Star around 182 despite their different methods.

Thanks Shockster - seems fair enough, and fair enough that the handicapper has doubts! I notice timeform have MC below 163.

Not keen on using Carruthers, he was in shocking form last season and his runs either side of the Hennessey both got an RFR of 145, while they gave him 153 in the Hennessey.   If he ran to 145, like his other races last season then that would put Denman around 172 and the 1st and 2nd around 162.  The 4th and 5th horses also subsequently failed to reproduce the RPRs given to them that day.  Only Carruthers has since improved/returned to form and there seem to have been good reasons for that.

Fair enough. It's turned out to be a poor race to use for ratings unfortunately.

If we take the mid point between oficial ratings of 182 and the notion that Long Run is about a 175 horse and say in the gold cup you would rate him someowhere between 177-180 the question remains what out of the rest is going to run to that level? Midnight Chase was beaten off convincgly last season and yet he was clearly best in The Argento.

It leaves you with two conflicting views about Grand Crus. One is that there is little strength in depth in the field this year so why shouldn't he take his chance and possibly pick up some prize money?

The other is that being a French bred with some miles on the clock and a tendency to belt fences Long Run may not be as good by next year and all the other potential 180 horses will be long gone and that a stronger more experiences Grand Crus could be a real force and that going this year could potentially ruin a horse with no experience of big field open company over fences.

Yes does seem considered and fair enough.  Points more and more to LY though.  Have taken a chance on Burton Ports well being and backed at 20's on hear in the without market. Still can't get away from WAF either.

What people forget after this era of Kauto/Denman/Imperial Commander is that usually 180+ rated chasers are very few and far between and that 175 would win  most Gold Cups and anything over 170 would normally put you in with a great shout!   IF LR can reproduce 175 it will probably be enough.

That's an excellent point thieves. We have been spoilt by recent chasers and it has skewed many peoples' perspective.

I agree if LR or Kauto can run to 175 they will probably win - as Eternal suggests there doesn't seem to be much else capable of running to that sort of mark (with the proviso that there are a few unexposed ones still - Quel Esprit, Burton Port, Jewssies Dream - but they are all highly speculative).

I agree. Of course I should seeing as I made the same point earlier in the thread. Horses capable of running to that level are so rare which is why those horses have left very good chasers for dead over the last few seasons.

hes an example best mate won 3 gold cups, if he was running in the era of kauto, denman and now long run he wudnt of been even placed in a gold cup let alone win 1, its like anything it goes on your luck with the opposstion at the time

strontium, nice comment about the gold cup   rsa, i wasnt thinking str8 there, but you know what i mean i guess.

I do, and I agree that one has to be very careful using times for NH races for all sorts of reasons.

Eternal - apologies - I didn't intend to deny you the credit for your point, it is a good one! (It's a long thread and there are a lot of threads...)

No problem. Watch one of the others scoot up now.

Betting preview to National Hunt's blue riband....

http://starbets.ie/horse-racing/quito-can-get-into-cheltenham-gold-cup-mix/