Cheltenham Festival
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Prob all rubbish but may be some useful little things 
Comment From Chris
Morning GC. I hear you were at Dapper Donald McCain's the other day for his press junket. Any nuggets gleaned from the great man?
11:00
A nice postive start Chris. We had a very busy day with Donald and it is only by going there and watching 3 lots filled with talented horses that you realise what depth there is in that yard these days. It is hard to settle on 1 horse among so many that look set to win more races this season, but he really crackles with enthusiasm for Cinders And Ashes, who is pencilled in to run at Haydock tomorrow as a springboard to the Supreme Novices'. Of the other stars, I also detected a quiet confidence about Weird Al's chances of making the frame in the Gold Cup. I must say he looks in blinding shape at the moment.
11:04
Comment From @stuakbafc
Graham, How much of a worry is that all the Championship races at Cheltenham are seeing their lowest entry numbers for many a year?
11:04
I must admit I did not know that was the case. I'd need to research the topic before I gave a worthwhile answer, but a bigger concern from a punters' point of view is that the newish races like the Jewson and the Albert Bartlett do tend to confuse running plans for certain races as we saw with Captain Chris last year. Assuming a star novice will follow the plan outlined initially by his trainer can be a very frustrating business.
11:07
Comment From danny
Morning GC.If Al Ferof wins tomorrow do you think Paul Nicholls will send him to the Champion Chase,please put my mind at rest and tell my Anti Post slips for him in the Arkle wont be being used on my fire to keep me warm.
11:08
I think you can rest pretty easy on this one Danny. Paul Nicholls has already stated several times that he is firmly in favour of keeping top novices in their division wherever possible. The other point to make is that Al Ferof certainly does not have to win tomorrow to enhance his Arkle claims. Victory would obviously polish his credentials, but even a close 2nd or 3rd behind the likes of Finian's Rainbow would provide solid evidence that he is a major Arkle contender. That is exactly what I think he is,
11:10
Comment From Biffo Cleary
Surely Forpadytheplasterer is the each way bet of the year GC?
11:11
Comment From Buzza
Graham, The Victor Chandler Saturday, I truly believe that Sommersby will win this chase, what are your thoughts on this? Son of Sasta unlucky last week.
11:11
Thanks for those gents. Call me old fashioned, but I tend to shy away from backing a horse that has lost 11 straight races in Grade 1 contests and if Pady finally breaks that run then I will be on a loser. He is clearly a place contender given how well he can travel through races but it is hardly reavealing state secrets to suggest that this Plasterer can down tools when the job gets really tough.
As for Somersby, I completley get the case for him at a big price based on his short head defeat behind Master Minded in this race last year. However, it nags away that he lines up this time after enduring a severe workout in the King George when 4th to Kauto Star. Is he durable enough to record the career best that will probably be needed to win this less than 4 weeks later? On balance, I have my doubts.
11:15
Comment From Big Bad Bob
Morning GC. Menorah's class got him through last weekend at Kempton but I still have concerns about his jumping technique. Your thoughts on him please?
11:16
Exactly the same as yours BBB. His ability to travel strongly in the Arkle is not in doubt, but if you are making careless mistakes in small fields round Taunton and Kempton then the potential for problems at Championship level around Cheltenham is crystal clear.
11:17
Comment From James N
Morning GC, who impressed you most from Taunton yesterday? I thought Ranjaan looked a definite Triumph contender and Nelson's Bridge appeared to be very inexperienced but displayed a great deal of class.
11:18
Really good card at Taunton yesterday and both the horses you mention clearly enhanced their reputations. Ranjaan is bang in the Triumph Hurdle picture after beating a useful field of older and much more experienced horses with authority. I will be surprised if more than 3 or 4 are better than him come the Friday of Cheltenham. Nelson's Bridge got the better of a useful horse in Dualla Lord and will be very hard to beat under a penalty next time.
11:20
Comment From Jenny
Hi Graham I'm very sweet on Peddlers Cross for the Arkle as I can't believe that was his running at Kempton. Did Donald give me any encouragement?
11:21
More than that Jenny. He now seems increasingly sure that we simply did not see the real Peddlers at Kempton. His vets seem confident that muscle problems prevented him showing up properly that day and Donald is still adamant this horse is every bit as good as he looked both when second in the Champion Hurdle and on his firts two starts over fences. He is very keen to run him again before Cheltenham. And it is also noteworthy that he seems keen to test him against good horses as opposed to what some people refer to as a confidence-booster.
11:24
Comment From ian stanley
morning graham , do you think graham us punters and the press seem to take are eye off the ball this time of the year regarding cheltenham at the end of the day were still going to get the same buzz winning a tenner in a wolverhampton seller than picking the winner of the arkle
11:25
That is true Ian, but the same principal applies if you back Hamilton Academicals to beat Cally Thistle in a football match and nobody publicises that clash of the giants ahead of who will win the Premier League. We are talking about 2 different mediums here, the issue of who will end up as champions should always take centre stage from a new perspective, However, you are dead right to argue ther is better value to be found away from the big shows and I am intending to change tack during this year's Festival by swerving a good few of those brain-burning handicaps in favour of a trawl through some of the more interesting races at the away fixtures.
11:29
Comment From Lee
So Mr Bittar has arrived GC - fair to say he'll be judged on two things - prize money and the whip?
11:30
Very fair Lee. The Racing Post marked his arrival on Wednesday with a lengthy splash asking dozens of people what they are looking for from Mr Bittar and several points suggested themselves. First, in a feature incorporating characters from every section of the racing industry it was surprising that not one voice was sought to express a punters perspective. Second, the clarion call for more prize money rang loud and true throughout the piece. And third, practically not one of those asked provided the slightest constructive idea as to how Bittar might go about raising revenue.
As for the whip, it was intriguing to see the BHA's stand-in PR man John Maxse tweeting "the dawn of a new era.". And of course it could the dawn of a new era, but the shadow cast by a major legislative ****-up through the whip laws still hangs heavily over the sport and that is something no amount of shiny spin can cover up.
On a broader point, the new man put in two sure-footed performances on radio 4 and 5 this morning but once again leading media outlets failed to ask him the main question. That question is simply "are you willing to give way on the 7/8 strokes mark". That question requires a yes or no answer. Once we have that, everyone of us will have a much clearer idea where we stand.
11:39
Comment From
3 from the first 4 in the betting in the CH have yet to see a racecourse. Unaccompanied, who readily held Grandoeut (2nd Fav) in last year triumph when second to Zarkandar smacks of value to me. Improving, already has a couple of runds under her belt, should get g/s as opposed to fast ground she ran on last year, great bet for me.
11:39
Good luck with that Guesty. But the very fact that those 3 horses you mention have not set foot on a racecourse this season makes me want to keep my powder dry. However, I am not as keen on Unaccompanied as you are, at present she is a slightly better horse than Thousand Stars and Oscars Well. That makes her good but nothing like so good as a peak form Hurricane Run. All in all I want more like 16/1 than 12/1 before I was tempted.
11:42
Comment From john - dublin
hi graham, in the past week we've seen 4 of the main contenders for the triumph in Ut de Sivola, Ranjaan, Sadlers Risk & Grumeti - which one impressed you most as a possible triumph winner?
11:43
That is a really good question John. I must admit I was expecting a but more from Ut De Sivola than what he actually delivered at Punchestown. Grumeti was clearly about to bolt up at Newbury when he came down while Ranjaan beat experienced handicappers and Sadlers Risk thrashed a reasonably ordinary field at Kempton. Sorry to sit on the fence with this one, but I don't have a strong view as to which of them has the strongest Triumph credentials. I expect all four will run again before Cheltenham. And, who knows, and we might even get really luck and see a couple of them take each other on rather than seeking easy picking in order to keep the Cheltenham dream alive until the big day itself.
11:46
Comment From Buzza
Graham, what about Mon nome for the 3.30 at Haydock tomorrow?
11:46
Really don't fancy him Buzza. I know those are the type of words to come back and haunt you on a chap like this, but I thought MM simply picked up the pieces from a race run at an overly-strong gallop over 3m3f at Cheltenham last time and coming back to 3m at Haydock could well see him struggle for pace. Good luck with him, but he is not for me.
11:49
Comment From @stuakbafc
Interesting to see Restless Harry will be kept over Hurdles and take on Big Bucks again; does he or anything (So Young/Oscar Whiskey??) have a chance of doing what Grand Crus and countless others couldn't?
11:50
Probably not if Big Buck's is on his game and looks like more and more that bookmakers are taking that view as they are opening up World Hurdle markets without BB. One of these days Homer will eventually nod. But I have been waiting for that day for a couple of years now and it has never really looked like happening.
11:52
Comment From James N
Who would be your RSA horse at this stage outside of Grands Crus? Nicholls has said he won't be running Silviniaco Conti which I think says a lot for Join Together and he would be my selection.
11:52
It looks like I am bit off the pace here. I did hear that Paul Nicholls was against running S Conti in the RSA and I must admit that came as real surprise. I thought he was very good value at 16/1 but if he is out of the picture then Join Together's chances clearly increases. We will know a great deal more about the RSA after Grands Crus runs in the Argento next Saturday but I would not want to put anyone off JT given he is a very strong stayer with a sound jumping technique and his latest Cherltenham win looks even better after the well-beaten third Champion Court went back to Cheltenham to win on NYD.
11:55
Comment From JJ Hook
Sorry, it's the Grand Crus to go for the RSA or Gold Cup question.
11:56
I'm equaly sorry but why would anyone want to anser that until we see how GC peforms against high-quality rivals like Time For Rupert and Diamond Harry in the Argento. My own gut feeling is that if he wins - he has the raw abilty to do that - then there is only one race he will go for. And that is the Gold Cup.
11:58
Comment From Shaun
Hi Graham. Do you have any indication which novice races Simonsig and Fingal Bay will go for at the Festival?
11:59
A very good question to end on this week Shaun. but I am afraid it all harks back to the problems caused by increasing option at the Festival. My own firm view is that Fingal Bay is odds-on to go for the Neptune rather than the Albert Bartlett and he seems very well equipped for a race like that. Simonsig is somewhat more problematic becasue Nicky Henderson has a posse of novices to place and the likes of Darlan, Captain Conan, Tetlami and Tour d'Argent are all potential Cheltenham contenders. For what it is worth, my own feeling is that Simonsig has real potential as a Supreme Novices' contender based on how he cruised along when 2nd to FB at Sandown and, for those who like a bit of gossip rather than the form book, I am told that Henderson himself has a pretty strong feeling that Simonsig might well be the best from what is a very impressive bunch,
12:03
Well, today's has flown by. The very best of luck with your punting this weekend, and as ever, we will be back on deck at 11am next week to preview what ought to be a riveting Trials Day at Cheltenham.
Comment From Chris
Morning GC. I hear you were at Dapper Donald McCain's the other day for his press junket. Any nuggets gleaned from the great man?
11:00
A nice postive start Chris. We had a very busy day with Donald and it is only by going there and watching 3 lots filled with talented horses that you realise what depth there is in that yard these days. It is hard to settle on 1 horse among so many that look set to win more races this season, but he really crackles with enthusiasm for Cinders And Ashes, who is pencilled in to run at Haydock tomorrow as a springboard to the Supreme Novices'. Of the other stars, I also detected a quiet confidence about Weird Al's chances of making the frame in the Gold Cup. I must say he looks in blinding shape at the moment.
11:04
Comment From @stuakbafc
Graham, How much of a worry is that all the Championship races at Cheltenham are seeing their lowest entry numbers for many a year?
11:04
I must admit I did not know that was the case. I'd need to research the topic before I gave a worthwhile answer, but a bigger concern from a punters' point of view is that the newish races like the Jewson and the Albert Bartlett do tend to confuse running plans for certain races as we saw with Captain Chris last year. Assuming a star novice will follow the plan outlined initially by his trainer can be a very frustrating business.
11:07
Comment From danny
Morning GC.If Al Ferof wins tomorrow do you think Paul Nicholls will send him to the Champion Chase,please put my mind at rest and tell my Anti Post slips for him in the Arkle wont be being used on my fire to keep me warm.
11:08
I think you can rest pretty easy on this one Danny. Paul Nicholls has already stated several times that he is firmly in favour of keeping top novices in their division wherever possible. The other point to make is that Al Ferof certainly does not have to win tomorrow to enhance his Arkle claims. Victory would obviously polish his credentials, but even a close 2nd or 3rd behind the likes of Finian's Rainbow would provide solid evidence that he is a major Arkle contender. That is exactly what I think he is,
11:10
Comment From Biffo Cleary
Surely Forpadytheplasterer is the each way bet of the year GC?
11:11
Comment From Buzza
Graham, The Victor Chandler Saturday, I truly believe that Sommersby will win this chase, what are your thoughts on this? Son of Sasta unlucky last week.
11:11
Thanks for those gents. Call me old fashioned, but I tend to shy away from backing a horse that has lost 11 straight races in Grade 1 contests and if Pady finally breaks that run then I will be on a loser. He is clearly a place contender given how well he can travel through races but it is hardly reavealing state secrets to suggest that this Plasterer can down tools when the job gets really tough.
As for Somersby, I completley get the case for him at a big price based on his short head defeat behind Master Minded in this race last year. However, it nags away that he lines up this time after enduring a severe workout in the King George when 4th to Kauto Star. Is he durable enough to record the career best that will probably be needed to win this less than 4 weeks later? On balance, I have my doubts.
11:15
Comment From Big Bad Bob
Morning GC. Menorah's class got him through last weekend at Kempton but I still have concerns about his jumping technique. Your thoughts on him please?
11:16
Exactly the same as yours BBB. His ability to travel strongly in the Arkle is not in doubt, but if you are making careless mistakes in small fields round Taunton and Kempton then the potential for problems at Championship level around Cheltenham is crystal clear.
11:17
Comment From James N
Morning GC, who impressed you most from Taunton yesterday? I thought Ranjaan looked a definite Triumph contender and Nelson's Bridge appeared to be very inexperienced but displayed a great deal of class.
11:18
Really good card at Taunton yesterday and both the horses you mention clearly enhanced their reputations. Ranjaan is bang in the Triumph Hurdle picture after beating a useful field of older and much more experienced horses with authority. I will be surprised if more than 3 or 4 are better than him come the Friday of Cheltenham. Nelson's Bridge got the better of a useful horse in Dualla Lord and will be very hard to beat under a penalty next time.
11:20
Comment From Jenny
Hi Graham I'm very sweet on Peddlers Cross for the Arkle as I can't believe that was his running at Kempton. Did Donald give me any encouragement?
11:21
More than that Jenny. He now seems increasingly sure that we simply did not see the real Peddlers at Kempton. His vets seem confident that muscle problems prevented him showing up properly that day and Donald is still adamant this horse is every bit as good as he looked both when second in the Champion Hurdle and on his firts two starts over fences. He is very keen to run him again before Cheltenham. And it is also noteworthy that he seems keen to test him against good horses as opposed to what some people refer to as a confidence-booster.
11:24
Comment From ian stanley
morning graham , do you think graham us punters and the press seem to take are eye off the ball this time of the year regarding cheltenham at the end of the day were still going to get the same buzz winning a tenner in a wolverhampton seller than picking the winner of the arkle
11:25
That is true Ian, but the same principal applies if you back Hamilton Academicals to beat Cally Thistle in a football match and nobody publicises that clash of the giants ahead of who will win the Premier League. We are talking about 2 different mediums here, the issue of who will end up as champions should always take centre stage from a new perspective, However, you are dead right to argue ther is better value to be found away from the big shows and I am intending to change tack during this year's Festival by swerving a good few of those brain-burning handicaps in favour of a trawl through some of the more interesting races at the away fixtures.
11:29
Comment From Lee
So Mr Bittar has arrived GC - fair to say he'll be judged on two things - prize money and the whip?
11:30
Very fair Lee. The Racing Post marked his arrival on Wednesday with a lengthy splash asking dozens of people what they are looking for from Mr Bittar and several points suggested themselves. First, in a feature incorporating characters from every section of the racing industry it was surprising that not one voice was sought to express a punters perspective. Second, the clarion call for more prize money rang loud and true throughout the piece. And third, practically not one of those asked provided the slightest constructive idea as to how Bittar might go about raising revenue.
As for the whip, it was intriguing to see the BHA's stand-in PR man John Maxse tweeting "the dawn of a new era.". And of course it could the dawn of a new era, but the shadow cast by a major legislative ****-up through the whip laws still hangs heavily over the sport and that is something no amount of shiny spin can cover up.
On a broader point, the new man put in two sure-footed performances on radio 4 and 5 this morning but once again leading media outlets failed to ask him the main question. That question is simply "are you willing to give way on the 7/8 strokes mark". That question requires a yes or no answer. Once we have that, everyone of us will have a much clearer idea where we stand.
11:39
Comment From
3 from the first 4 in the betting in the CH have yet to see a racecourse. Unaccompanied, who readily held Grandoeut (2nd Fav) in last year triumph when second to Zarkandar smacks of value to me. Improving, already has a couple of runds under her belt, should get g/s as opposed to fast ground she ran on last year, great bet for me.
11:39
Good luck with that Guesty. But the very fact that those 3 horses you mention have not set foot on a racecourse this season makes me want to keep my powder dry. However, I am not as keen on Unaccompanied as you are, at present she is a slightly better horse than Thousand Stars and Oscars Well. That makes her good but nothing like so good as a peak form Hurricane Run. All in all I want more like 16/1 than 12/1 before I was tempted.
11:42
Comment From john - dublin
hi graham, in the past week we've seen 4 of the main contenders for the triumph in Ut de Sivola, Ranjaan, Sadlers Risk & Grumeti - which one impressed you most as a possible triumph winner?
11:43
That is a really good question John. I must admit I was expecting a but more from Ut De Sivola than what he actually delivered at Punchestown. Grumeti was clearly about to bolt up at Newbury when he came down while Ranjaan beat experienced handicappers and Sadlers Risk thrashed a reasonably ordinary field at Kempton. Sorry to sit on the fence with this one, but I don't have a strong view as to which of them has the strongest Triumph credentials. I expect all four will run again before Cheltenham. And, who knows, and we might even get really luck and see a couple of them take each other on rather than seeking easy picking in order to keep the Cheltenham dream alive until the big day itself.
11:46
Comment From Buzza
Graham, what about Mon nome for the 3.30 at Haydock tomorrow?
11:46
Really don't fancy him Buzza. I know those are the type of words to come back and haunt you on a chap like this, but I thought MM simply picked up the pieces from a race run at an overly-strong gallop over 3m3f at Cheltenham last time and coming back to 3m at Haydock could well see him struggle for pace. Good luck with him, but he is not for me.
11:49
Comment From @stuakbafc
Interesting to see Restless Harry will be kept over Hurdles and take on Big Bucks again; does he or anything (So Young/Oscar Whiskey??) have a chance of doing what Grand Crus and countless others couldn't?
11:50
Probably not if Big Buck's is on his game and looks like more and more that bookmakers are taking that view as they are opening up World Hurdle markets without BB. One of these days Homer will eventually nod. But I have been waiting for that day for a couple of years now and it has never really looked like happening.
11:52
Comment From James N
Who would be your RSA horse at this stage outside of Grands Crus? Nicholls has said he won't be running Silviniaco Conti which I think says a lot for Join Together and he would be my selection.
11:52
It looks like I am bit off the pace here. I did hear that Paul Nicholls was against running S Conti in the RSA and I must admit that came as real surprise. I thought he was very good value at 16/1 but if he is out of the picture then Join Together's chances clearly increases. We will know a great deal more about the RSA after Grands Crus runs in the Argento next Saturday but I would not want to put anyone off JT given he is a very strong stayer with a sound jumping technique and his latest Cherltenham win looks even better after the well-beaten third Champion Court went back to Cheltenham to win on NYD.
11:55
Comment From JJ Hook
Sorry, it's the Grand Crus to go for the RSA or Gold Cup question.
11:56
I'm equaly sorry but why would anyone want to anser that until we see how GC peforms against high-quality rivals like Time For Rupert and Diamond Harry in the Argento. My own gut feeling is that if he wins - he has the raw abilty to do that - then there is only one race he will go for. And that is the Gold Cup.
11:58
Comment From Shaun
Hi Graham. Do you have any indication which novice races Simonsig and Fingal Bay will go for at the Festival?
11:59
A very good question to end on this week Shaun. but I am afraid it all harks back to the problems caused by increasing option at the Festival. My own firm view is that Fingal Bay is odds-on to go for the Neptune rather than the Albert Bartlett and he seems very well equipped for a race like that. Simonsig is somewhat more problematic becasue Nicky Henderson has a posse of novices to place and the likes of Darlan, Captain Conan, Tetlami and Tour d'Argent are all potential Cheltenham contenders. For what it is worth, my own feeling is that Simonsig has real potential as a Supreme Novices' contender based on how he cruised along when 2nd to FB at Sandown and, for those who like a bit of gossip rather than the form book, I am told that Henderson himself has a pretty strong feeling that Simonsig might well be the best from what is a very impressive bunch,
12:03
Well, today's has flown by. The very best of luck with your punting this weekend, and as ever, we will be back on deck at 11am next week to preview what ought to be a riveting Trials Day at Cheltenham.
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