Divers 20/1 Byrne Group Plate

I’m not one to often bet on Festival Handicaps antepost, but the 20/1 available on Divers has been capturing my attention every time I run through the Festival markets on Oddschecker. The obvious formline to look at is the PP Gold Cup in November last year at Cheltenham.

Quantitativeeasing finished 2nd to Great Endeavour carrying 10st 0lbs with Divers a further 3.5 lengths back in third also carrying 10st 0lbs due to the presence of Poquelin heading the weights off 170. The 3.5 lengths gap was accounted for next time out by Phil Smith in the Spinal Research Gold Cup with Quantitativeeasing running off 145 and carrying 10st 7lbs to victory. Divers carried 10st 4lbs off a mark of 142 in that race accordingly. Quantitativeeasing won the race and was moved to a mark of 153 by the handicapper. Divers, who unseated Keith Mercer in the race at an early stage, remains on a mark of 142. With no disrespect intended to Mercer, had the horse had Graham Lee on his back who is an expert in navigating big field handicaps from the back I fully believe he could have had a major say in what was a thrilling finish. Divers is also prone to throwing in the odd error and the chances of this would be reduced with the experienced and hugely talented Graham Lee returning to the saddle at Cheltenham.

The winner of the race Great Endeavour went on to run 4th over an inadequate Hennessey trip, Aerial 4.5 lengths back in fourth won over the trip at Ascot and Divers also had Billie Magern who hacked up over course and distance the month before and Calgary Bay who would do likewise on New Year’s Day behind him in 5th and 8th respectively.

I am not a big Ferdy Murphy fan at all. I very rarely back any of his horses and seeing Divers pulled up in the Colin Parker at Carlisle two weeks before the PP only served to enhance this view of mine. However, I can’t let my emotions get in the way of the formbook. On the back of Quantitativeeasing’s Spinal Research run, surely Divers has an equally good chance of running to a mark up to 8lbs above the 142 he is currently rated when again partnered by Graham Lee on their PP runs?

I fully expect Ferdy Murphy to keep him away from fences until the Festival to preserve his mark of 142 and would not be surprised to see him given a spin over hurdles or even on the all-weather at some point in February as a sharpener. I also realistically cannot see the horse taking in any other race at Cheltenham. There is nothing that suggests the horse would benefit from the step up to 3 miles, although the 2 miles 5 furlongs of the Byrne Plate over the stiffer course on the Thursday would appear to be ideal for him. He is not a good enough horse for the Ryanair and that leaves him with the Byrne Group Plate as the only realistic race for him.

From a trends perspective, although 22 of the last 24 winners were rated no higher than 141, a rating of 142 is hardly miles away from fitting this trend. He is also French-bred; a breed that has provided us with 6 of the last 12 winners from a small representation. Furthermore, on his side is a profile that fits the key trends that 17 of the last 20 winners had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival and 12 of the last 13 winners had ran no more than 16 times over fences.

It is a very speculative shout at this stage as with any Festival handicap selection before any weights come out, but 20/1 is a price that could look ludicrous on Thursday March 15th.