Cheltenham Festival
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14 Jan 12
19:34
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02 Apr 11
I have had this fella in mind for a few years now as one that could improve thru the ranks to take a part in the Gold Cup one day.
No doubt this is a decent era for quality staying chasers but again today this lovely horse showed what a thouroughly smart animal he is who stays all day and when in a rythm jumps well.
I backed him last week at 125/1 for the Gold Cup and will go in again if it looks certain he will run.
I have no doubt there will be plenty of people laughing this selection off , if so congratulations on your 1/100 winner if you lay him.
If Chelt does come up soft ( odds against ) he is just the type to go well at massive odds.
You seen many a strong staying type like him progress before ( Cool Ground ... Garrison Savannah ) and I honestly believe this one is not yet finished improving.
Best outsider in the race for me , still 100/1 available
No doubt this is a decent era for quality staying chasers but again today this lovely horse showed what a thouroughly smart animal he is who stays all day and when in a rythm jumps well.
I backed him last week at 125/1 for the Gold Cup and will go in again if it looks certain he will run.
I have no doubt there will be plenty of people laughing this selection off , if so congratulations on your 1/100 winner if you lay him.
If Chelt does come up soft ( odds against ) he is just the type to go well at massive odds.
You seen many a strong staying type like him progress before ( Cool Ground ... Garrison Savannah ) and I honestly believe this one is not yet finished improving.
Best outsider in the race for me , still 100/1 available
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Replies: 27
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Race lacking any serious strength in depth, bar the top 2 imo, so no reason not to back something at a price
I doubt HBS is the one, but no harm in playing at those odds best of luck |
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I hate this horse for beating Fredo. End of.
 Seriously, 6 horses were out of the handicap today and whilst it was a classy peformance, that must take the edge off it a bit imo. In saying that however I think the runner-up should go on and frank the form at some stage. |
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Actually was £4 available last night at 1000 on here. Will prob run now as well as will be almost impossible to win a handicap.
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140 on here now for £6
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NO
Every year people put up lively outsiders for this and they never get anywhere near winning, too many good horses in the past 5 years for outsiders to be worth a bet, ousiders without G1 wins |
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I have no doubt there will be plenty of people laughing this selection off , if so congratulations on your 1/100 winner if you lay him.
and congrats on your shot to nothing!! |
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livley outsiders do not beat super horses like long run.
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 Hey Big Spender for the gold cup? Comedy gold! |
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yep, nothing in the race with the class of long run! think it would be very safe to lay the likes of HBS and Weird Al
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think Kauto may have the class of Long Run
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HBS's record in Graded races is 0,F,F,8,4,9,4,F,1.
Says it all really. Big price runners sometimes get flattered in the Gold Cup running maybe 4th or 5th, but usually about a furlong behind the winners. You'll need nearly all the principles to have a really really bad off day to get anywhere near the places. |
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Budd
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only worth a punt if money tree says lay imo
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Sir Rembrant was unfancied and without a glamorous profile,but was within a stride or two of beating Best Mate.If he big two have an off day then a place is a distinct possibility. A value e/w bet in my eyes,especially with a major doubt over Grand Crus'participation.
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Sir Rembrant was unfancied and without a glamorous profile,but was within a stride or two of beating Best Mate.If he big two have an off day then a place is a distinct possibility. A value e/w bet in my eyes,especially with a major doubt over Grand Crus'participation.
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Would fully expect HBS to finish in the first five home should they run him.
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You mean he'll finish 5th?
Quite possible that he'd run on past the horses who were trying to win the race and got ran out of it. That often happens. |
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Nope, I mean I'd confidently expoect him to finish in the first five!
 That also includes, 4th, 3rd, 2nd and, er, 1st, strontium. As you can tell, I am of the persuassion that races are run on racecourses not ratings. |
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It only takes one or two of the main contenders to blnder badly and the race becomes wide open.
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OK, it's your money
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sintonian 16 Jan 12 12:44
It only takes one or two of the main contenders to blnder badly and the race becomes wide open. and for hbs not to blunder badly...could be a problem there...could also be a problem for tizzard to get enough water out of his kitchen tap and onto the course without the water board getting suspicious....mind you he can catch an episode of peckham spring on uk gold for a few tips in that department.  |
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Why do people, including the connections, think HBS wants it desperate? Am I taking a different form book to everyone else???
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Also, whu do people say 'he won't win?'
He only has to win (theoretically)once in 100 runnings of the race for the OP to turn a profit. Like he says, good luck in spendind that £1 you make for £100 exposure for anyone actually betting 'he won't win'. |
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That's perfectly true Roger - but that's also a short route to the poor house because 100/1 shots don't come in once every 100 races (i.e. the rate of return is highly unpredictable). It's also the end of the market where the bookies make thier margins, so a typical 100/1 shot should be more like a 250-350/1 shot. Theoretically, in a competetive (efficient) market (like Betfair), there should be a large profit to be made backing 20/1+ shots over the long run, but you'll probably go bust before you see a meaningful profit because at those odds you are likley to have very long runs of losers.
As for Hey big Spender the best High Street price appears to be 66, 100 on here. Does that relfect his true chance? He's got potentially 15 different horses who've won Grade 1 steeple chases to beat (of whom 11 are likely runners). |
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Right of course but you take my point - it's all about price basically.
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Always
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For what its worth I would be tempted by 66s e/w on the day.
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