Cheltenham Festival
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07 Jan 12
15:17
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14 Sep 10
ive never seen a horse jump so bad around sandown and win so easy. festival target?
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Replies: 36
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William Hill, not sure would get round Cheltenham if jumping like that,but strong stayer will go up lot in weights for that easy win. Would have won by 15 or more if jumped.
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billies would be the obvious race but he would still qualify for a novice race too
he was rated 130 before the race and will be hit at least 8lb for that, so should get a decent weight his jumping would have to improve for sure, but have never bought in to this chelt fences are bigger/stiffer than anywhere else. the major differences is the speed horses are made to race at, which leads to jumping errors |
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Yep, there are few courses harder to jump round than Sandown. Could also go for the Kim Muir?
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Ran off 133 today & The Kim Muir is 0-140 so probably wont be able to go for that. The old WH trophy looks the obvious race or maybe even the 4 miler.
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I thought the 4-miler looked a good possibility based on today's run.
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I thought Kim Muir straight after the race but will be rated higher than 140 for sure
Not eligible for the NH so i'm let to believe  |
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I didn't know the cut off for the KM was 140 - thanks Ben
 Presumably he isn't a novice because he won a hunter chase on 4th April? I guess the Will Hill it must be then, though he might only go up to 140 on the nose depending on how the handicapper chooses to rate the race. |
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i wouldve thought the handicapper has little choice but to lump weight on. he must stay quie far too if he saw that out after making so many mistakes
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Defo gonna go over 140 after today
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He'd be on 140 if rated through Quilihmar (sp?).
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il hazard a guess of 148 for him. he ran off 136 today
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133 i mean
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How do you get to that? Even through Neptune Collonges, who clearly didn't give his running, you only get a rating of 142.
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yeah thats if taking form at face vale. i thought he won as he liked
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You might be right. We'll find out on Wednesday
 Odds-on he'll be over 140 so Will Hill or bust at the Festival. |
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or maybe the 4 miler. we will see
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Apparently he's not eligible (won a race before the cut off date for novices).
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oh right
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He"ll get hammered for yesterdays win, handicappers hate to be made to look foolish.
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"The three-mile handicap (JLT Specialty Chase) on the opening day of the Festival would look the obvious target for him at Cheltenham and I'd imagine he'll have another run somewhere beforehand.
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The Kim Muir H'cap Chase & Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' H'cap Hurdle are both now 0-145 events. Previously for horses rated 0-140. oooh intersting  |
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He looked like an out and out stayer. Would they not be tempted to go for The National and miss Cheltenham altogether or even have a prep in The Gold Cup first? He beat Neptune Collonges easily enough, adnittedly receiving weight, but is progressing and that one has run close up in The Gold Cup. His jumping may not be the best but seems to find a leg and won with any amount in hand.
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He's be very inexperienced to win a National - might be one for next season - though he's probably have a nice racing weight this year. I can't see them running him in a Gold Cup - he's still 30 lbs below the required standard. Neptune Collonges was giving him almost 2 stone and is a long way off the horse that placed in the Gold Cups. He's not been the same since his serious injury.
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Gone up to 147. Well done winners!
Only leaves the Will Hill, and it's a high mark for that. |
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144, I think.
Could still run in Kim Muir, but wouldn't want to run in the meantime. Personally don't think they'd have the Kim Muir on their mind - if he jumps like he did on Saturday you'd want to a pro jock on, no? |
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Sporting Life says he's been raised a stone (which would indeed be 144), but also says "Hold On Julio has been raised by a stone to a mark of 147 having begun the season winning from a rating of just 117."
My guess is there's a little confusion because his OR was 130 but he ran off 133 on Saturday 3 lbs out of the handicap. |
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147 according to sportinglife
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Defo 144.
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King said he was gonna have another run but would be very interestin in the KM if he waited till Chelt off that mark!
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if its 144, its not overly harsh. still capable of winning off that mark id say. id be inclined to put him away for the festival if he were mine
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Just checked on the BHA website & its 144
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I'm amazed they're thinking of the Kim Muir. The race can be total carnage with one or two normally going off lickety split resulting in a frenetic gallop that puts jumping at a premium. Plus, although he'll probably be a good one, the jockey will obviously be an Amateur....and there's more prestige in winning the W.Hill.
You've lost the plot, Alan, imo. |
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And he'll have top weight or very close. Odd indeed Headmaster.
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If he goes for the Kim Muir, then I'm sure AK will find a suitable pilot. The Duke was very adept at developing amateurs - Dickie & Chocs to name but 2 - and Charlie Huxley was competent, so Alan will know what is required Is there an amateur associated with the yard at the moment? Didn't R Jarrett ride for him last season?
Tough ask off what will inevitably be top weight. |
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Whereas he'd be on the sort of mark the Will Hill has been won off in the last few years - though the quality has been going up and he may not get a run off (only) 144?
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I agree about The Kim Muir and wouldn't run a well handicapped horse in that where there are even more variables than your average Cheltenham handicap chase. I think they'll go for The William Hill Chase and follow up at Aintree as I think they tried with Bensalem. The Whitbread would look ideal otherwise or The Scottish Grand National if he didn't get in at Cheltenham.
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