Cheltenham Festival
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With Willie Mullins now happy with the wellbeing on Hurricane Fly, does the 7/4 NRNB represent a decent bet?
The way i'm trying to look at it is to judge what odds he would be on the day should he win the Irish Champion Hurdle and have no more issues between now and the 13th March.
Quite tricky as you do have to feel that he's the star in the race though the big negative would be that it took him two races last year before he really got into the groove of things. To counter that though, two of the biggest threats, Sprit Son and Zarkandar, are likely to only have one race each before the big day.
Even last year when his ability to get up the hill was a complete unknown he only went off at 11/4 so if he wins in good style at the end of the month could it be that his SP is around the 5/4 mark?
Any thoughts welcome
The way i'm trying to look at it is to judge what odds he would be on the day should he win the Irish Champion Hurdle and have no more issues between now and the 13th March.
Quite tricky as you do have to feel that he's the star in the race though the big negative would be that it took him two races last year before he really got into the groove of things. To counter that though, two of the biggest threats, Sprit Son and Zarkandar, are likely to only have one race each before the big day.
Even last year when his ability to get up the hill was a complete unknown he only went off at 11/4 so if he wins in good style at the end of the month could it be that his SP is around the 5/4 mark?
Any thoughts welcome
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Pile on with SS maybe as an ew cover
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Looks like they'll be taking each other on at the end of the month!!
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Are you a fan of R Walsh?
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Was 2/1 NRNB earlier this week - I think they're both stonking prices, if he turns up he'll be very close odds on IMO
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Yeah I know, missed the 2/1 whilst mulling it over.
If he turns up as Irish CH winner what odds do you think he'll be? 5/4, evens? |
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I think the opposition all have weakenesses, I'm with Unaccompainied as she's the only one to prove her wellbeing and class, but if the Fly gets there she's playing for places only I think.
I took the 36s 2/3 weeks ago when there were questions about HF wellbeing. If they all get there I'd say HF is 5/4 tops, but Zarkander and Spirit Son haven't proved their fitness yet and if one of those was to pull out I think it would sent HF evens, on the day if the Irish have had a touch in the Supreme and/or Arkle and I think they'll back him into odds on. What that does to Quevega's price is anyones guess, I'm seriously thinking of smashing the 6/4 now and I'm not usually an ante-post player... |
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Went last year for first time (had such an effect on me I got the tickets and hotel sorted back in July!!) and there was nothing like watching Quevega come round the corner doing handstands, Ruby unmoved with the rest out of sight.
That was until I lost my voice cheering Bostons Angel to the line!! Thats the thing with H Fly this year isn't it - you'd want 3 prep runs ideally but main two against haven't seen a course yet. Can't have Grandeout and if fit Zarkandar has a huge line through him, though Ruby will of course be on H Fly as well. Don't like Binocular, Rock on Ruby isn't good enough etc etc etc |
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I think 7/4 NRNB is a cracking bet. If he has a good prep in the Irish Champion and/or Zarkander and Spirit Son - neither of whom we've seen this season - disappoint, he could be much shorter on the day.
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If he wins Irish Champion Hurdle cant seeing him being bigger than 5/4?
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i dont think 7/4 is a value bet now ! after looking at reruns of the champion hurdle and his other races last season i feel there are good grounds for taking him on at that price and shorter , dont get me wrong i am not dissing him but as they say you should never be afraid of 1 horse ,yes he was impressive in the champion hurdle and ruby thinks he is his best chance at the festival this year but he beat peddlers cross (possibly better over further ) 1/2 length oscar whisky (almost certainly better over further) menorah (overated ) thousand stars ( again better over further ) this form may not be as good as it 1st looked, and this years race may be much stronger ,he may well have 1or 2 who can really put it up to him .he may well win anyway but at a very short price i will be against him.
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spirit son may run in irish champion against h.fly according to todays post .
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Depends how you look at it 7/4 now knowing that he has got to run his race in the Irish champion. If your getting 5/4 on the day, then that's still not a bad price.
Personally I think SS is unlikely to go to Ireland. So if SS wins on comeback Zark wins on comeback Hurricane has 3 new challengers/dangers so just by the nature of the depth of new challengers then he'll have to go off odds against. But, you could say if he's goes to the Irish and loses then he probs wobt be going to champion as they will be of the opinion he's not right so from that perspective 7/4 nrnb is a good price. |
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Personally i think it is great value but have took the 9/4 hills price antepost, bigger price with a bit of risk. He wont be anywhere near 6/4 after the irish if he comes out and wins imo as he was as short as 6/4 in Oct'/Nov/Dec before the speculation! If he wins the irish in a hack canter he will be 11/8 tops after! If Spirit son is in the race and he wins like that he will be evs for about half a day before going 4/5 after but i am with the above poster, i hope henderson does not send SS, it is either Binoc or SS he will send and personally (pocket talking as have backed SS at 10s also) i would prefer Binoc to be sent!
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Wakey - spot on for me.
5/4 after you;ve seen the horse in the parade ring and cantering down the start is arguably far better value than 7/4 2 months before the race. That said, if he gets to Cheltenham fit and well I can see him be very close to odds on and he won't be taken there is he's not 100%, so the 7/4 NRNB does seem a decent play at the moment... |