Cheltenham Festival
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There are some good threads around discussing the novice chase scene, but Bog Warrior seldom gets a mention which is surprising, as he is one of the best novice chasers we have seen this season, either side of the Irish Sea.
He only started racing in January last year and made his chase debut in November at Navan over 2m, where he won easily and his fencing was superb throughout. He completed the same C&D quicker than Big Zeb that day by 4s, and he wasn’t fully extended. The horse he beat into 2nd Felemenstar franked the form two weeks later by routing a decent field by 19l.
He won his 2nd chase start, a G1 over 2m4f by 31 lengths! He just galloped them silly; again his jumping that day was good apart from edging left a little. Disappointedly he fell whilst at the head of affairs in the novice chase at Leapordstown on his 3rd start. He was cruising when he landed too steeply at the 4th; Blackstairsmountain was a fortunate winner that day. It has since been reported he is none the worse for this fall.
As for the festival, it’s up in the air whether he comes over as the trainer has said he needs soft ground. I'm not so sure, he has won on yielding ground before and at Navan it was yielding to soft, he should handle better ground imo. He does not posses the action of a typical soft ground horse. I think the trainer, who is on record as saying he’s the best he’s ever had, is being over protective. I’m no AJ Martin expert and can't remember everything he has trained, however I am aware of his Xenophon exploits and know he can ready one for a race.
Bog Warrior has been kept to shorter distances this year so I don’t think he would ever turn up in the RSA, plus the owners have First Lieutenant and Last Instalment for that race. If he did come over it would be Arkle or Jewsons imo. Gigginstown’ only other novice chaser of note is Sire Des Champs and he’s been running at Jewson type distances, so I’d say there’s a good chance he could run in the Arkle on day one where the normal g/s ground may be preferred. Current prices with the high street layers suggest otherwise mind (General 20/1 Arkle, 12/1 Jewsons). He can be backed on here at bigger prices, and I have pennies on for both races.
Bog Warrior is high class and could serve it up to the best novices around and may represent some value against the principles in the market, so I hope he makes it over. O’Leary is a competitive and sporting owner and he loves festival winners so I think there’s a chance. I personally would love to see him take on Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, as he has plenty of speed, now that would be some race.
He only started racing in January last year and made his chase debut in November at Navan over 2m, where he won easily and his fencing was superb throughout. He completed the same C&D quicker than Big Zeb that day by 4s, and he wasn’t fully extended. The horse he beat into 2nd Felemenstar franked the form two weeks later by routing a decent field by 19l.
He won his 2nd chase start, a G1 over 2m4f by 31 lengths! He just galloped them silly; again his jumping that day was good apart from edging left a little. Disappointedly he fell whilst at the head of affairs in the novice chase at Leapordstown on his 3rd start. He was cruising when he landed too steeply at the 4th; Blackstairsmountain was a fortunate winner that day. It has since been reported he is none the worse for this fall.
As for the festival, it’s up in the air whether he comes over as the trainer has said he needs soft ground. I'm not so sure, he has won on yielding ground before and at Navan it was yielding to soft, he should handle better ground imo. He does not posses the action of a typical soft ground horse. I think the trainer, who is on record as saying he’s the best he’s ever had, is being over protective. I’m no AJ Martin expert and can't remember everything he has trained, however I am aware of his Xenophon exploits and know he can ready one for a race.
Bog Warrior has been kept to shorter distances this year so I don’t think he would ever turn up in the RSA, plus the owners have First Lieutenant and Last Instalment for that race. If he did come over it would be Arkle or Jewsons imo. Gigginstown’ only other novice chaser of note is Sire Des Champs and he’s been running at Jewson type distances, so I’d say there’s a good chance he could run in the Arkle on day one where the normal g/s ground may be preferred. Current prices with the high street layers suggest otherwise mind (General 20/1 Arkle, 12/1 Jewsons). He can be backed on here at bigger prices, and I have pennies on for both races.
Bog Warrior is high class and could serve it up to the best novices around and may represent some value against the principles in the market, so I hope he makes it over. O’Leary is a competitive and sporting owner and he loves festival winners so I think there’s a chance. I personally would love to see him take on Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle, as he has plenty of speed, now that would be some race.
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Think the trainer has said he'll only run if it comes up very soft (though that was earlier in the season and may have changed). They've also said next race will be the Iirish arkle, so looks like he'll run in the 2 miler if at all.
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Yes, I do think he's relenting a bit on the ground stance, this was a quote before his last run
"He's won over two miles and two and a half and he's not short of pace, so there's no point in stepping up at the moment." Bog Warrior revels in soft ground, but Martin feels he could also be effective on a sounder surface. This leaves the door open for a potential trip to the Cheltenham Festival in the spring. "Like all good horses I think he'd handle most ground, but I'm not looking beyond Christmas at the moment," added Martin. |
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He is a horse I adore but for some reason I have always viewed him as an RSA horse which is silly really I guess. I suppose nobody has really put him up as an Arkle horse and arguably 2 miles could be his trip at the moment. Good call. I hope whatever he runs in that he turns up at the festival.
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Love this horse - would defo consider him a 2m4-3m+ horse on soft ground
Dunno if they would run him if twas quick |
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Ruby said in his examiner column that while he was a top class horse, he was 'no 2 miler'.
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I never knew Ruby had a column. BW' chase debut suggests he has plenty enough toe, Ruby wasn't on board that day, but I guess he knows a thing or two. I just hope he comes over, any race would do me.
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Any further news / thoughts on this one.
I'll be backing him whatever he turns up for (if he turns up_, but would really like an inklin to include in my millionaire multiples  Think he would walk the RSA, where as Peddlers or Sacre, even Cue Card could do him in the Arkle. If he does not go RSA route, then First Lieutenant gets more and more interesting at 20's.... |
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After Flemenstars performance yesterday, connections must surely be thinking of the Arkle? Sire De Champs according to Mullins is going Jewsons or RSA, they have nothing else for the race.
Anyone heard anything? Will he come over? |
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OLeary has First Lieut, Last Instalment, Sir De Champs and Bog Warrior plus a few more so I would imagine he would have runners in at least 2 of the Novice races.
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The arkle is too hot, trainer has pretensions up to 3M, JEWSON, DO IT!
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Howdy Meadow. I managed to read through Pricewise' Arkle write up in the shop today, and AJ Martin has stated, that BW is coming along nicely since his fall, that he's entered in the jeswons and RSA as well as the Arkle, but that "it's too early to make definate plans"
Nothing concrete there, but not ruled him out at least. Need to wait for NRNB I guess. |
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Impressive over 2m and gets 2m 4f, spells Arkle contender to me.
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Following his tumble over the Festive period, Martin has taken things slowly with Bog Warrior, but he could soon be back in competitive action. He holds entries in the Arkle, the Jewson Novices' Chase and the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, but his trainer is in no rush to commit him to a target.
"We always thought he was a good horse and luckily enough his form is working out well," the trainer added. "He's working away now and we're building up gradually. He has plenty of options coming up and we'll see where we're going after he does a bit of work this weekend. "It's only the first day of February, so we won't be making any definite plans for Cheltenham until later in the month. He's in everything." |
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That reeks of Jewson
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Does anyone think Flemenstar would reverse form with Bog Worrior though?
I'm not saying he will, but would love to see them reoppose. It's very difficult to read when to high class animals meet on chase debuts. You can't be sure how fit either horse was etc etc. After watching Flemenstar at the weekend, I struggle to think that he would be beat 8 lengths by many things tbh. Just loved his jumping, only just mm over the birch at most, accurate and fast. Wasn't hugely flashy, but end of the day you just need to get from A-B as quickly as possible. Think he exceptional personally, interesting that Casey has hinted in the past that he wants further?!?! He looked alrite over 2 miles, so over 2m4f he could be quite useful! |
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 I'm puzzled how those comments 'reek of Jewson', all it states is he is entered in the 3 novice chases. Not saying he won't go for it but not sure how you can glean anything from what Tony has said there |
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Personally i would wait until the day before backing this, it aint going to be that much shorter than he is now if turning up for any of the novice races he is entered up in. You can back him on here at around 19-20 average for each of the 3, can't see him being shorter than 9 or 10 should he show up. Back in all 3 races at a average 5-6/1 if you want for your money or wait and get 8s - 10s on the day imo, i know what i will do.
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Powers Gold Cup I'd say, or at a push Arkle because they have horses for the other races
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Really like this horse too. Would back him in the Jewson, but neither other race.
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'good horse with lucky form'..thats not sprinter sacre beating talk. Im clutching at straws eh, more hopeful, with a little common sense. And yes, imo Flemenstar needed the FTO, shame he's not going to Chelt.
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entered this weekend
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Saturday & Sunday.
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Bog Warrior could make his comeback on Saturday at Naas in the BBA Ireland Ltd Opera Hat Novice Chase over 2m.
The Tony Martin trained gelding has been out of action since receiving a nasty kick to the head after falling in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown on St Stephen's Day, when he was sent of the 4/5 favourite. The son of Strategic Choice had before that beat subsequent Arkle Chase winner Flemenstar easily on his chasing debut at Navan in November and then put in an excellent display to land the Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase at Fairyhouse in facile fashion. After his fall at the Christmas Festival he then missed the Arkle at Leopardstown last month but the 8yo bay gelding could now make his racecourse return on Saturday. If he does line up he won’t have it all his own way as Blackstairmountain (who won that Grade 1 on St Stephen's Day) is also among the eleven entries. Slieveardagh, Call The Police and Donnas Palm are other notable entries |
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Changing my view on this slightly, and think the Arkle could be the better option. Appears to have more strength in depth, but Bog Warrior jumps well at pace, and also would have the stamina to storm away up the hill.....
Weekend will be informative. |
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from RP:
BOG WARRIOR was on Friday declared for races on Saturday and Sunday, but trainer Tony Martin said he willcontest Naas's BBA Ireland Opera Hat Novice Chase and is among the Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase five "just in case". Bog Warrior, 12-1 for the RSA Chase and 16-1 for the Racing Post Arkle, is set to faceRacing Post Novice Chase winner Blackstairmountain, who disappointed on heavy ground at Leopardstown last time out in the Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase, in the 2m contest. Martin said: "He is a definite for Saturday. That's the race for him. His declaration for the Grade 1 at Leopardstown on Sunday is purely precautionary. "You never know what might happen on Saturday and it's nice to have a back-up plan." |
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From SL
Bog Warrior bids to get back on track when he lines up for the BBA Ireland Limited Opera Hat Novice Chase at Naas on Saturday. The eight-year-old blotted his copybook when falling at the fourth fence in the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. He was sent off odds-on favourite for that Grade One contest on the strength of winning his two race races over fences. Bog Warrior has also been declared for the Dr. P.J. Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday, but that is purely a precaution with trainer Tony Martin naming Naas as the first preference. "He runs on Saturday. That's the first choice and Leopardstown is second choice," said Martin. "Everything's OK after his fall at Leopardstown. We're ready to go again, hopefully. "We're happy with him at the moment so we'll carry on. The weather's all right so we're happy to let him go on Saturday and see where we go from there. We won't worry about Cheltenham or anywhere." Bog Warrior holds entries in the three championship races for novice chases at Cheltenham - the Arkle Trophy, RSA and Jewson. He has just the five rivals at Naas, but one of those is the Willie Mullins-trained Blackstairmountain, who took full advantage of his demise to score at Leopardstown. |
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Would really fancy him for the Jewson, hope he turns up for that but i'm not backing until either NRNB or trainer states it's the most likely target. NRNB is normally around the beginning of March for most bookies isn't it?
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I don't think he'd be out of place in the Arkle, and I think that that's his most likely target at Cheltenham, considering that the ground will probably be softer that day than either the Wednesday for the RSA or Thurs for the Jewson. Also Gigginstown already have two for the RSA, which I probably means that Sir des Champs will go for the Jewson, which in turn makes it more likely that BW will go for the Arkle imo.
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Think he is the big value horse for the Arkle. As dtam said, the ground is sure to be ok, good ground is an unknown for him at this stage. Interesting that he's rated very similarly on RPRs to SS and AF and that is without reassessing his 2m win over Flemenstar who he beat 7.5L at levels and who is now rated 164 by RP. If he goes round clear tomorrow then game on!
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Big drifts on here today. Is he staying at home?
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Perhaps they've decided to supplement him for the Champion Chase
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