Cheltenham Festival
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Personally, I am not a layer of horses. I get more enjoyment out of backing than hoping a horse loses.
The only time I ever lay is if I have a good AP bet and then lay it off at a shorter price for insurance, which is what I've done with Peddlers this year.
If you had to lay a horse for the Festival what would it be, assuming that they turn up in their intended races?
Mine would have to be Grandouet. He beat Overturn by 4 lengths receiving 4lbs; I don't think he should be around the 6/1 mark like he is now and Overturn is 40/1. I think the stable prefer Spirit Son and then there's the five year old stat (although they do look like a good crop of 5 year olds).
The only time I ever lay is if I have a good AP bet and then lay it off at a shorter price for insurance, which is what I've done with Peddlers this year.
If you had to lay a horse for the Festival what would it be, assuming that they turn up in their intended races?
Mine would have to be Grandouet. He beat Overturn by 4 lengths receiving 4lbs; I don't think he should be around the 6/1 mark like he is now and Overturn is 40/1. I think the stable prefer Spirit Son and then there's the five year old stat (although they do look like a good crop of 5 year olds).
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Grands Crus - think he is going to get outstayed in the RSA or GC
Quevega - think it could the year that the great mare loses her crown. Could be the strongest mares field for some time if we were to see Voler La Vedette, Unaccompanied, Alasi and Our Girl Salley line up. Quevega at 6/4 looks short against that bunch.
I will be laying Noble Prince on the day in the Ryannair chase...Think this race is already looking ultra competitive and his form isn't standing to close inspection. Think he should be campaigned over shorter and he could go off heavily backed. Also I think he will go short in the run and I will be in the queue...He will not win.
Sprinter in the Arkle, Al Ferof was amazing at Cheltenham in Nov and the race at Sandown turned into a sprint which isn't his cup of tea. Throw in Peddlers who we all know is top class, the old dog Cue Card and probably one or two others. Just watch his attempt last year trying to get up that hill
Grandouet in the Champion Hurdle (not good enough)
Captain Chris in the Gold Cup (won't stay)
Everything in the Triumph at the moment as we've seen nowt good enough to win it yet :)
Captain Chris in the Gold Cup (won't stay)
Everything in the Triumph at the moment as we've seen nowt good enough to win it yet :)
al ferof whatever race he goes for, few to good in arkle and no chance of winning QM
Never lay anything longer than 5.0 so oppurtunities are a little limited at the festival but will lay kauto as I think it will harden up all Cheltenham week and I plan to lay it early on the morning of the race as I see it drifting bigtime the extra 2F and the hill will be too much against RL and other younger improving horses....once laid just then try to enjoy the race if possible......mmmmm.
My point is the real price will be as markets develope early doors on the friday,drift early then I lay and then course cash will shorten it up again and a easy all green.....if it goes to plan
or rather I lay it early then it drifts for a all green situation,sorry didnt explain myself clearly.
The obvious one is Hurricane Fly. And I have laid him already. He had an agreesive campaign last season and he is quite clearly feeling the effects of that this season as he has not made it to the track yet. Plenty of potential improvers in the race.
If the fly runs and wins the AIG would you still lay him on the day.
Much as most of us love the horse, I simply cannot have a 12yo running pasy younger horses to lift the blue riband - he'll run well and probably get placed again but I'm hearing people say he'll be 11/4 or 3/1 on the day, I'd happily re-mortgage and lay him to lose quarter of a mill....
No idea. I have layed him in ante-post market that looks competitive. Day of the race market could be completely different. We might end up with 5 runners! Who knows.
Horse 9 - you sound very rich...but like your style
I looked seriously at taking redundancy and becoming an on-course bookie last year, the pitch battle put me off as well as the lack of turnover since exchanges started, but I would seriously put 250 big ones in my satchel and lay Kauto to lose the lot - I love the horse dearly but he cannot win another Gold Cup
Harry, I'm far from rich my friend, the fact I still have a mortgage confirms this - though laying £80k of Kauto at 3s would almost get the balance paid off....
Like the original poster, I am very much a backer rather than a layer, but have for a long time thought about adopting a virtual blanket lay approach to Festival runners between the 6-4 and 3-1 mark.
I remember a thread started last year (apologies, can't remember the author) that was really informative on this subject. Basic premise simply being that almost ALL Festival races are so deep in terms of quality, that it is very rare for horses to have such high chances of success against so many other good horses, which justifies laying the shorties.
Exceptions to this rule are of course the likes of Big Buck's and Quevega, who are established stars in their division. It's the handicaps and novice races that really look tempting as prospects for laying shorties as you are dealing with inexperience and untapped potential as well.
So, on that basis, as I've said before on another thread, I feel Sprinter Sacre (gorgeous horse though he is) should not be 5/2 in what I still have great faith in being a top-class Arkle.
I remember a thread started last year (apologies, can't remember the author) that was really informative on this subject. Basic premise simply being that almost ALL Festival races are so deep in terms of quality, that it is very rare for horses to have such high chances of success against so many other good horses, which justifies laying the shorties.
Exceptions to this rule are of course the likes of Big Buck's and Quevega, who are established stars in their division. It's the handicaps and novice races that really look tempting as prospects for laying shorties as you are dealing with inexperience and untapped potential as well.
So, on that basis, as I've said before on another thread, I feel Sprinter Sacre (gorgeous horse though he is) should not be 5/2 in what I still have great faith in being a top-class Arkle.
chelters 16- no just prefer to say things that are worth while for the racing enthusiasts...hope this helps...although the Kauto jab was poor...
Long Run - Again I back and seldom lay, but the fact that only Best Mate in the last 40 years has retained the Gold Cup works for me. Not even Kauto or Denman could do back to back wins. Also with Horse9 can't have Kauto as a 12yr old. Look for an outsider.
It could be that Kauto jumps LR into the ground again, then some long shot with younger legs spoils the party 
That's a very realistic scenario BTW. Rather like Kauto and Denman last year, with Long Run coming through at the end to steal the win.
Right now all we need to do is find the long shot, will that be a problem 
Like shockster says its damn hard to retain the Gold Cup, and it might just be too much for even the King to pull this one off. I have an agonising vision of him 2 lengths up inside the distance looking like hanging on then......
Like shockster says its damn hard to retain the Gold Cup, and it might just be too much for even the King to pull this one off. I have an agonising vision of him 2 lengths up inside the distance looking like hanging on then......
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