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Tom starts his Ante Post selections on Tuesday with The Gold Cup. So before he puts his selection up what would you go for at this stage, if you were doing that column?
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High street layers, shorteneing up all the posiible candidates I see.
I'll give you Weird Al - he would be my pricewise reserve in case either of the trainer comments indicate doubts over Synch or Jessies.
As an aside, I think Tom is the best tipster there has ever been. End of. Though I too would expect to profit from getting early dibbs on all those juicy trainer comments about the leading contenders before they appear in print !
As an aside, I think Tom is the best tipster there has ever been. End of. Though I too would expect to profit from getting early dibbs on all those juicy trainer comments about the leading contenders before they appear in print !
I struggle to see Captain Chris getting the trip given he was on the stretch after 2 miles at Kempton. I'm sure he'll improve for that run, but he looked miles behind KS and LR.
I can't see Seagull tipping Synchronised on price grounds. He likes the horse, the horse is an improver but he's no value at 10 or 12/1 even as an each way shot.
Don't worry too much about Burton Port being a real stayer - he is, but the Gold Cup is a real stamina test and certainly will be this year if Kauto's front running tactics continue. Long Run is also an out and out stayer! BP could well stay on for a place at least.
I can't see Seagull tipping Synchronised on price grounds. He likes the horse, the horse is an improver but he's no value at 10 or 12/1 even as an each way shot.
Don't worry too much about Burton Port being a real stayer - he is, but the Gold Cup is a real stamina test and certainly will be this year if Kauto's front running tactics continue. Long Run is also an out and out stayer! BP could well stay on for a place at least.
Hey Howdi.
Ok maybe 9/1 not 6/1!!
You wouldnt have thought Captain Chris could win an Arkle after his defeats in the winter months last year, so his King George run was very creditable, especially with his interupted prep.
He also seems to be a little better in the Spring.
Connections are also saying the Gold Cup is the target, so he should turn up! - always a bonus!!
Ok maybe 9/1 not 6/1!!
You wouldnt have thought Captain Chris could win an Arkle after his defeats in the winter months last year, so his King George run was very creditable, especially with his interupted prep.
He also seems to be a little better in the Spring.
Connections are also saying the Gold Cup is the target, so he should turn up! - always a bonus!!
Remember I'm asking what YOU would put up not Segal. I want to see if any of us can beat Pricewise.
He may go for QDLR. Extra 2 furlongs and stiff track right up his street imo.
Captain Chris at 25/1, spring horse on goodish ground, obviously trip a concern?
Captain Chris shortening in most places, maybe he's the choice? I backed him after the King George at 33/1 ew NRNB with Laddies. Thought he was going to be pulled up at one point, and next time I saw him he was staying on for third.
Outside of the top two in the market, and if Grands Crus doesn't run, I think Captain Chris is best of the rest.
I've also got Jessies Dream at 40/1 (but not NRNB). If he turns up, I think he'll be travelling one of the best after about 2.5 miles, but it then depends on what he's got after that.
Outside of the top two in the market, and if Grands Crus doesn't run, I think Captain Chris is best of the rest.
I've also got Jessies Dream at 40/1 (but not NRNB). If he turns up, I think he'll be travelling one of the best after about 2.5 miles, but it then depends on what he's got after that.
CC did not stay 3m at Kempton,how on earth will he stay an extra 2f at Cheltenham??
All he did was go past the weakening Somersby who certainly did not stay after travelling far better than CC.
Also His jumping werent great at Exeter and same again at Kempton.
If hes the choice Pricewise needs the men in the white coats imo!!
Jessies is interesting,but needs to be seen pretty soon,and with the novices being pretty bad,has to prove that at least one of them has improved markedly.Doubt he will go for him though.
Quel Esprit is one that could get tipped up,at least he has been out and won a race,unlike Burton and What a Friend.
All he did was go past the weakening Somersby who certainly did not stay after travelling far better than CC.
Also His jumping werent great at Exeter and same again at Kempton.
If hes the choice Pricewise needs the men in the white coats imo!!
Jessies is interesting,but needs to be seen pretty soon,and with the novices being pretty bad,has to prove that at least one of them has improved markedly.Doubt he will go for him though.
Quel Esprit is one that could get tipped up,at least he has been out and won a race,unlike Burton and What a Friend.
budd dangerous to say capt chris wont stay,i learned a very costly lesson a few years back when i took notice of some opinions that a certain imperial commander wouldnt stay in the gold cup , imo if hobbs thought he wouldnt stay (im not saying 100% he will stay ) but surely he would have said straight away queen mother or ryanair ,but they seem happy ,things could change granted and maybee he wont stay but i think its a chance worth taking and generally he is a good jumper of fences, possible he wasnt !100% fit on boxing day and may be spot on for the gold cup .hope pricewise dont tip him as his odds will fall and i want to go in again .lads nrnb only 16s at moment .
Looks like he is tipping 2
The tag line says see what value betS pricewise picks.
The tag line says see what value betS pricewise picks.
Synchronised, Captain Chris and Jessie's blue across the board on oddschecker
Foyleswar - I agree with your point regarding Captain Chris. Budd, you may be right, but I think rhythm is the most important thing in determining whether horses stay certain distances and CC never seemed to be in one at Kempton. There are a number of reasons for this, including him not being good enough, but just as likely in my opinion is that he was not cherry ripe after an interrupted preparation and that he is possibly not at his best until the days lengthen.
I have never had a bean on this horse before and am not especially in his corner, but he is the one to my mind with the biggest scope for improvement and stamina would not be what put me off him. I suspect he will not be quite good enough but would have place possibilities if improving as he has done throughout previous campaigns.
I have never had a bean on this horse before and am not especially in his corner, but he is the one to my mind with the biggest scope for improvement and stamina would not be what put me off him. I suspect he will not be quite good enough but would have place possibilities if improving as he has done throughout previous campaigns.
agree with ttf.
could he put up weapons amnesty..i would.
i personally think its gcru or kauto to win
could he put up weapons amnesty..i would.
i personally think its gcru or kauto to win
A complicating issue with Captain Chris is Wishfull Thinking - they will presumably be kept apart.
Definitely strontium. Unfortunately for connections, I think they are both best over 2 1/2m. And one of the two will end up suffering.
Incidentally, it's still making me laugh that Simon Holt called him Craptain Chris in the King George commentary.
Its strange that everybody sees captain chris as a ryan air or gold cup horse, everybody knows he's a spring horse and he won the arkle by 2and 3/4 l and then followed up by winning a 2 mile race round punchestown. An arkle winner has a good record in the champion chase and id imagine that it would be the best route to take for the present.
it must also be remembered that only for a slight set back this time last year Sizzing europe would have run in the king george and he ended up running and winning the champion chase
it must also be remembered that only for a slight set back this time last year Sizzing europe would have run in the king george and he ended up running and winning the champion chase
Agree ba - if he were mine he'd run in the Champion Chase.
I've backed him for the QM, and if he were mine I'd run him in that too. I know that contradicts what I said before, but I think you probably need to be a 2 1/2 miler to win the QM and its the only race for a 2 1/2 mile horse at the Festival.
I think he'd have a cracking chnace in it.
I think he'd have a cracking chnace in it.
The owner of captain chris is liable to make up his mind the night before QM which is a problem with ante post. although Ive also have him backed for champion chase and would certainly backed him again at 14's wit PP if i believed there was a 75% + chance of him running. unfortunately thats not the case at present.
It was a HE that claimed all the plaudits at Cheltenham, and he stated on that occasion that the decision to go for the arkle was made the night before.
Pipebet on where Captain Chris will end up:
Gold Cup 8/11
Ryanair 3/1
QMCC 4/1
Tripwise the Ryanair would be my call, but this year I would deffo go for the QMCC. Take out Sizing Europe and the rest are nothing to be scared of. Very patchy look to the field! The third fav was beaten by Captain Chris in last year's Arkle and arguably had less scope for improvement. The Ryanair looks like being the best renewal so far this year so I would swerve that. As for the Gold Cup? 3m2f with an uphill finish against two of the best Gold Cup winners in decades? Ludicrous. The horse may not have been at it's best over Kempton's sharp three miles last time but it hardly screamed stayer did it?
Gold Cup 8/11
Ryanair 3/1
QMCC 4/1
Tripwise the Ryanair would be my call, but this year I would deffo go for the QMCC. Take out Sizing Europe and the rest are nothing to be scared of. Very patchy look to the field! The third fav was beaten by Captain Chris in last year's Arkle and arguably had less scope for improvement. The Ryanair looks like being the best renewal so far this year so I would swerve that. As for the Gold Cup? 3m2f with an uphill finish against two of the best Gold Cup winners in decades? Ludicrous. The horse may not have been at it's best over Kempton's sharp three miles last time but it hardly screamed stayer did it?
Well the markets would suggest a 3 point win bet of Kauto Star @ 9/2 spoils (only 5.1 on here but 3k wanting to back with still 10 weeks to go) and a 1pt win 1pt place of Captain Chris @ 20/1 generally (is only 18 on here now) though CC could be unlikely as he was 25/1 this afternoon so with a bigger price gone, it is poss he will get a mention in the column write up but may not get a tip.
Of the others, it is very hard to work out, there has been some very creditable stabs in the dark on this thread today!
Of the others, it is very hard to work out, there has been some very creditable stabs in the dark on this thread today!
It's Captain Chris at 20/1. Don't think there's another one. I'll take the credit since I put it up first 
I'm assuming Pricewise has gone for Captain Chris as Oddschecker has a sea of blue over it. Can anyone confirm?
Thanks
Thanks
SIZER he went for CAPTAIN CHRIS it was the obvious one in fairness...
Yes thought he would due to people speculating on here however i was'nt sure. Btw i'm not a pwise follower i just needed to know incase he selected my horse.
No problem with the tip or the reasoning but feature was woeful, Segal only covered 5 horses effectively dismissing chances of all the others and not even trainer comments for Time for Rupert and Weird Al who are,after all, in the first 6/7 in the betting.
Don't know why they did n't wait until next week for the enties either except that RP was only 64 pages as it is today and they were desparately short of copy.
Don't know why they did n't wait until next week for the enties either except that RP was only 64 pages as it is today and they were desparately short of copy.
I hope Captain Chris an arkle winner takes the route of an arkle winner should, by contesting the champion chase.
Unless he proves he's capable of staying prior to cheltenham taking on kauto and long run in a gold cup could destroy the horse. So owner, think long and hard, be sensible take the champion chase route this year and maybe when one less superstar i.e Kauto star is around, take the gold cup route next year.
Unless he proves he's capable of staying prior to cheltenham taking on kauto and long run in a gold cup could destroy the horse. So owner, think long and hard, be sensible take the champion chase route this year and maybe when one less superstar i.e Kauto star is around, take the gold cup route next year.
^^^^^^ Totaly agree. It wont make any sense what so ever going straight for a gold cup for an unproven stayer..
They're obviously intending to run in the Gold Cup barring accidents or he would not have tipped it.
Hobbs other horse will be going QM imo.
Seagull flying off to the cuckoos nest!!
Seagull flying off to the cuckoos nest!!
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/0...
How Captain Chris performs in his next race will determine whether he lines up in the Ryanair Chase or the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March.
Philip Hobbs' charge won the Arkle last season but has endured an interrupted campaign this term, unseating Richard Johnson in the Haldon Gold Cup on his reappearance and missing the Peterborough Chase due to an unsatisfactory scope, before finishing a fine third in the King George on Boxing Day.
The handler told At The Races: "I think he's got a lot to prove as yet. His runs in the spring last year were a big improvement and we were pleased with his comeback in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, even though he unseated."
He added: "The only disappointing thing in the King George was he's normally a horse who jumps and travels very well and he didn't do either, although he stayed on all right.
"The finishing position was satisfactory but throughout the race he didn't nearly perform as well as normal and we're hoping that he maybe wasn't quite A1 - although we wouldn't have run him if we didn't think he was.
"The (Gold Cup) trip is a bit of a concern but he's a better horse on good ground, which is likely at Cheltenham, although finding it before then is the problem. He also has a slight inclination to jump slightly to his right, he doesn't lug right during the race.
"But, having said that, it was a very good performance in the Arkle so it's a minor disadvantage. You would want everything in your favour for a Gold Cup, though.
"The Ryanair is definitely an option and I'd very much like to run him beforehand as that will tell us which direction we are going to go.
"He has three options. The Argento at Cheltenham, the Aon (Denman) Chase at Newbury or the Ascot Chase over two-five."
Philip Hobbs' charge won the Arkle last season but has endured an interrupted campaign this term, unseating Richard Johnson in the Haldon Gold Cup on his reappearance and missing the Peterborough Chase due to an unsatisfactory scope, before finishing a fine third in the King George on Boxing Day.
The handler told At The Races: "I think he's got a lot to prove as yet. His runs in the spring last year were a big improvement and we were pleased with his comeback in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter, even though he unseated."
He added: "The only disappointing thing in the King George was he's normally a horse who jumps and travels very well and he didn't do either, although he stayed on all right.
"The finishing position was satisfactory but throughout the race he didn't nearly perform as well as normal and we're hoping that he maybe wasn't quite A1 - although we wouldn't have run him if we didn't think he was.
"The (Gold Cup) trip is a bit of a concern but he's a better horse on good ground, which is likely at Cheltenham, although finding it before then is the problem. He also has a slight inclination to jump slightly to his right, he doesn't lug right during the race.
"But, having said that, it was a very good performance in the Arkle so it's a minor disadvantage. You would want everything in your favour for a Gold Cup, though.
"The Ryanair is definitely an option and I'd very much like to run him beforehand as that will tell us which direction we are going to go.
"He has three options. The Argento at Cheltenham, the Aon (Denman) Chase at Newbury or the Ascot Chase over two-five."
^ a few too many 'if,buts and maybes' for me there I'm afraid - we'll know more after his next run s'pose - especially if it's the Ascot Chase back at 2m 5f.
Value has definitely gone for the Gold Cup.
He was ok last week for small stakes 33/1 NRNB and 25/1 NRNB, but I wouldn't be backing him at 14's, especially if you don't use Laddies NRNB if the Ryanair is still an option.
He was ok last week for small stakes 33/1 NRNB and 25/1 NRNB, but I wouldn't be backing him at 14's, especially if you don't use Laddies NRNB if the Ryanair is still an option.
The Argento and the Denman (Aon) could both be spectacular - Grands Crus, Long Run, Captain Chris, Burton Port all being talked about as possibles.
14's!!!
The worlds gone mad!!
Will be in the Ryanair imo,thats his race and distance i feel, and he wont win that either the way hes been jumping this season!!
The worlds gone mad!!
Will be in the Ryanair imo,thats his race and distance i feel, and he wont win that either the way hes been jumping this season!!
I'm a huge fan of Tom's but feel he has had a bad day at the office with this one. He's usually first to steer clear antepost of a horse that has other potential targets which CC clearly has. Agree with other comments that the contenders weren't properly analysed at all. Why spend a week shouting about this article and then produce something very shoddy?
Along with many others I believe Tom has got stuck in his thinking with Synchronised (it needs a bog...it's too slow etc). Fine based on what we knew about the horse before this season BUT look at it's two runs this season. Two PB's and neither on soft ground. Could it not be that the horse has improved a lot over the summer? At about the same price now I think you'd be mad to back CC over Synchronised.
In any case Long Run and Kauto are streets ahead of the rest so I'm getting stuck into laying CC on here and I'm pretty hopeful that it won't even turn up :)
Along with many others I believe Tom has got stuck in his thinking with Synchronised (it needs a bog...it's too slow etc). Fine based on what we knew about the horse before this season BUT look at it's two runs this season. Two PB's and neither on soft ground. Could it not be that the horse has improved a lot over the summer? At about the same price now I think you'd be mad to back CC over Synchronised.
In any case Long Run and Kauto are streets ahead of the rest so I'm getting stuck into laying CC on here and I'm pretty hopeful that it won't even turn up :)
even if this horse lines up in gold cup, i cudnt have him at the prices, long run and kauto are so far ahead of anything else in the field, i thought cc done well to get within 20 lengths at kemp, think it wud be more like 30 length around chelt, tom made a mistake with this one i feel
i dunno what is the funniest captain chris @ 14's or synchronised ' 10's both must be for comedy value and nothing else! if either win gold cup its time for us all to pack in me feels
The thing I have learnt about Tom is that he picks horses that I cannot see winning and then they do, but actually looking down the field he has probably picked the right one. The price has gone now and I find it difficult to find a long shot. I don't see Long Run winning another Gold Cup. Surely Kauto cannot win a 3rd at the age of 12. Grands Crus wont run. Synchronised not good enough. With the thought that he will win the Argento at Cheltenham in a few weeks my choice is Time For Rupert at 26 on here.
u dont see long run winning another gold cup? that is a joke rite?
Think theres a clear danger of people not seeing whats bang in front of their eyes!!
Long Run and Kauto Star are streets ahead of anything else around on all known form,and in particular this season.
They have both won the race before and at least one maybe both will win it again,well i will be major suprised if at least one dont,put it that way.
FWIW i would spend my time concentrating on more difficult races than this apparent 2 horse one.
Long Run and Kauto Star are streets ahead of anything else around on all known form,and in particular this season.
They have both won the race before and at least one maybe both will win it again,well i will be major suprised if at least one dont,put it that way.
FWIW i would spend my time concentrating on more difficult races than this apparent 2 horse one.
o.k lads lots of differing opinions here and a bit of a similar situation to last year with people dismissing long run for last years gold cup down to his jumping and dissapointing run in the paddy power. and look what happened there ! ........
ive backed captain chris at 16s yesterday with lads nrnb before pricewise tipped it, and im more than happy that t.segal has confidence in him as i regard him as one of the best judges in the game ,tom is putting up what he thinks is a value selection and as he says capt chris could relish the distance of the gold cup long run most likley winner but still has jumping issues and jockey a concern ( not rode a winner under rules this season so far)and at the price to many issues ,kauto a 12 year old now (not saying he cant win but he has had 2 hard races and kempton suits more than cheltenham + how is he going to be ridden made all and exposed long runs jumping on flatish tracks but will he be ridden the same over the gold cup trip?and at the prices and age he must be taken on imo .
then we have the possibility of the novice grans crus being thrown in to the mix ,exieting as he is, at the prices i would look elsewhere ,yes i know he got to withing spitting distance of big bucks over 3m in the world hurdle but so did time for rupert and also tidal bay in the last few years but they have hardly set the world alight ,something has to finish 2 nd to big bucks and he just seems to do just enough to win and it flatters horses who finish close up to him . plus there is every chance he will take the rsa option .
has synchronised improved massivley since last year ! he may well have or did he just beat a poor lot in ireland ? i think he has improved a lot from last year and a lot of us had in our memories of him plouging through the mud in that long distance chase a couple of years back and had him down as a plodder ,but if he carries on improving he will be a real threat as he has had not had many races over fences and improvement is likley .
time for rupert has been slightly dissapointing tbh but has ability and could still improve but he has a fair bit to find imo .
in captain chrises favour is the fact that he seems to find his best form in the spring and he usually jumps and travels (something that was missing at kempton)he is going for one of the gold cup trials and we should see him ridden differently i.e more prominently and if he dont stay then thats the beauty of nrnb nothing lost. synchronised is the other one i would be interested in at around 12s nrnb at lads .good luck .
ive backed captain chris at 16s yesterday with lads nrnb before pricewise tipped it, and im more than happy that t.segal has confidence in him as i regard him as one of the best judges in the game ,tom is putting up what he thinks is a value selection and as he says capt chris could relish the distance of the gold cup long run most likley winner but still has jumping issues and jockey a concern ( not rode a winner under rules this season so far)and at the price to many issues ,kauto a 12 year old now (not saying he cant win but he has had 2 hard races and kempton suits more than cheltenham + how is he going to be ridden made all and exposed long runs jumping on flatish tracks but will he be ridden the same over the gold cup trip?and at the prices and age he must be taken on imo .
then we have the possibility of the novice grans crus being thrown in to the mix ,exieting as he is, at the prices i would look elsewhere ,yes i know he got to withing spitting distance of big bucks over 3m in the world hurdle but so did time for rupert and also tidal bay in the last few years but they have hardly set the world alight ,something has to finish 2 nd to big bucks and he just seems to do just enough to win and it flatters horses who finish close up to him . plus there is every chance he will take the rsa option .
has synchronised improved massivley since last year ! he may well have or did he just beat a poor lot in ireland ? i think he has improved a lot from last year and a lot of us had in our memories of him plouging through the mud in that long distance chase a couple of years back and had him down as a plodder ,but if he carries on improving he will be a real threat as he has had not had many races over fences and improvement is likley .
time for rupert has been slightly dissapointing tbh but has ability and could still improve but he has a fair bit to find imo .
in captain chrises favour is the fact that he seems to find his best form in the spring and he usually jumps and travels (something that was missing at kempton)he is going for one of the gold cup trials and we should see him ridden differently i.e more prominently and if he dont stay then thats the beauty of nrnb nothing lost. synchronised is the other one i would be interested in at around 12s nrnb at lads .good luck .
Long Run stayed 3m at Kempton last season,CC failed to do that this season.Long Run also jumped ok round Kempton,CC failed to do that as well.
So we have a non stayer at 3m that is not jumping well being tipped up for a Gold Cup over 2 furlongs more.
If thats a good judge i give up!!
So we have a non stayer at 3m that is not jumping well being tipped up for a Gold Cup over 2 furlongs more.
If thats a good judge i give up!!
denman- There have been a lot of great horses to win the Gold Cup and yet in 40+ years only Best Mate and Kauto Star have won 2.He should not be as short as he is and I can just see something going wrong. Remember Pricewise is about finding value I would expect different horses if I had asked Which horse will win the Gold Cup?
yeh,but at least pick one that will stay 3m 2,and not one thats just failed to stay 3m.
steamship, take alook at my post on pricewise last years selection, some good selections but also a few shockers, i dont think theres any value in captain chris at the prices, have to agree with wha budd has to say
I agree Budd - two horse race. Three if Grands Cru runs.
Though I do believe as the race gets closer, both Kauto Star and Long Run's apparant weakness will become more publicised and punters will search for an each-way alternative.
Being ahead of the game in that respect is profitable too.
But right now, I find it hard to expect a result other than a Kauto Star / Long Run reverse forecast.
Though I do believe as the race gets closer, both Kauto Star and Long Run's apparant weakness will become more publicised and punters will search for an each-way alternative.
Being ahead of the game in that respect is profitable too.
But right now, I find it hard to expect a result other than a Kauto Star / Long Run reverse forecast.
Bud you're spot on and i like the fact you're not **** footing round it. He might as well have gone for Sommersby as he was running down CC at the end, and he didn't stay either.
its all about opinions lads and most have differing ones ,budd as i said before its dangerous to assume that a horse definatly wont stay ..........ill give you an example i had a veiw that either imperial commander or cooldine would win the gold cup a few years back ( 2 horse race between denman and kauto according to most) had read in the media or somewhere that imp commander wouldnt stay and the doubt was planted in the back of my mind,anyway had a multiple sizing europe 13/2w arkle , weapons amnesty 12/1w rsa big zeb 12s w champ chase in singles doubles trebles and a £20 e/way acca ,the acca would have come to the best part of £400,000, i stood for cooldine on the basis that imperial commander would not stay and who do you think pricewise tipped .........imp commander at 20s ante post, so i never say that a horse will definatly not stay ! and sureley hobbs would have a better idea than any of us !
Foyles fair play...I do like it when someone stands up...a fair read...
Have to agree I think he is a fair shout Captain Chris myself and is, was the value in the race with a realistic chance...
I do totally agree with the Big Bucks stance although I wouldn't be underestimating the young grey as think he is the classiest horse seen out this season..others will disagree but he is where I am in the race..
Think Long Run doesn't jump well and John Wayne on board who seems to love to go in lane 8 is not helping his progress...others will argue but i think he is an awful 5-2 shot as I also do about Kauto Star who at around the 4-1 people really need there heads testing...he is 12 will not get the easy lead he has done the last twice and is 12...lets hope he returns home safe.
Time for Rupert well... lets just hope for his backers who still see him beating the 4 mile winner 8 lengths as decent form?? He looks as slow as a boat to me...beating the 145 fair handicapper off of levels The Giant Bolster who has barely got round in his life 1 and 3/4l has done nothing to change my mind...
Sychronised himself beat the 5 miler Quito de la slow and the non staying Rubi light who maybe wasn't at his best on the better ground at Leopardstown to achieve the joke rating of 171 from the racing post...Distances can often be exaggerated by none stayers and Quito just looks so slow it isn't funny...12-1 is one of the most horrendous prices I have seen...horrible.
Weird Al who has only seen the track 10 times and is going the right way under better handling (no offence Ian) appeals to be placed if sound and he is a worthy 25-1 chance...
Captain is certainly a decent shout here and he was always going to need the run last time and I'm not a believer that the track suits him ideally anyway...he ran better than the bare form and he also has top class form in the book already, his form has been franked by Medermit who ran well in a top handicap under a big weight at Cheltenham...trip an unknown as it is with a lot of the runners.
For me Captain Chris is a fair shout by pricewise but Grands Cruise is the play if running, with Weird Al a potential long shot...those taking the short odds on long Run have balls for me as do those that think Kauto Star will be able to get up that hill at 12...miracles do occur however and I will be shot down if they are the first 2 home but that isn't going to happen is it?????
Have to agree I think he is a fair shout Captain Chris myself and is, was the value in the race with a realistic chance...
I do totally agree with the Big Bucks stance although I wouldn't be underestimating the young grey as think he is the classiest horse seen out this season..others will disagree but he is where I am in the race..
Think Long Run doesn't jump well and John Wayne on board who seems to love to go in lane 8 is not helping his progress...others will argue but i think he is an awful 5-2 shot as I also do about Kauto Star who at around the 4-1 people really need there heads testing...he is 12 will not get the easy lead he has done the last twice and is 12...lets hope he returns home safe.
Time for Rupert well... lets just hope for his backers who still see him beating the 4 mile winner 8 lengths as decent form?? He looks as slow as a boat to me...beating the 145 fair handicapper off of levels The Giant Bolster who has barely got round in his life 1 and 3/4l has done nothing to change my mind...
Sychronised himself beat the 5 miler Quito de la slow and the non staying Rubi light who maybe wasn't at his best on the better ground at Leopardstown to achieve the joke rating of 171 from the racing post...Distances can often be exaggerated by none stayers and Quito just looks so slow it isn't funny...12-1 is one of the most horrendous prices I have seen...horrible.
Weird Al who has only seen the track 10 times and is going the right way under better handling (no offence Ian) appeals to be placed if sound and he is a worthy 25-1 chance...
Captain is certainly a decent shout here and he was always going to need the run last time and I'm not a believer that the track suits him ideally anyway...he ran better than the bare form and he also has top class form in the book already, his form has been franked by Medermit who ran well in a top handicap under a big weight at Cheltenham...trip an unknown as it is with a lot of the runners.
For me Captain Chris is a fair shout by pricewise but Grands Cruise is the play if running, with Weird Al a potential long shot...those taking the short odds on long Run have balls for me as do those that think Kauto Star will be able to get up that hill at 12...miracles do occur however and I will be shot down if they are the first 2 home but that isn't going to happen is it?????
There will be e/w alternative,and that could well be a big priced one,and one that is run to finish in the places,as has happened often in the past.
Any horse that tries to win the race besides the 2 favs will not be placed imo.
I am presuming by the way that Grand Crus aint running,but if he does he imo makes it a 3 horse race.
There are 2 that still interest me at big odds that i have backed,trouble is they are tied in with the novices that have been running not that well - Quel Esprit and Jessies Dream,so its hopeful at best really.
Any horse that tries to win the race besides the 2 favs will not be placed imo.
I am presuming by the way that Grand Crus aint running,but if he does he imo makes it a 3 horse race.
There are 2 that still interest me at big odds that i have backed,trouble is they are tied in with the novices that have been running not that well - Quel Esprit and Jessies Dream,so its hopeful at best really.
also are we taking into consideration that captain chris missed work and hobbs said that if the race was run a week earlier he would not have run . we should see if he stays or not in the aon denman chase if he dont then the ryanaire or champion chase are the option but im hopefull!
So basically the Kempton thrashing is ignored,the flawed jumping this season also ignored.
Fair enough.
Fair enough.
Bud although I agree with you regarding CC. I have to say the stats are massively against the top 2. Quel Esprit could be anything or nothing and it's form doesn't tie in with last years novices as it fell twice, therefore it is unexposed. Jessies Dream unfortunately ties in with a very poor generation and I could not have it. Nicholls is training What A Friend for gold Cup as stated in todays Racing Post and as he was a nose behind Kauto last year, he'll do for me.
do you not think the fact that fell twice might mean he is exposed...as a bad jumper! 
yeh,WAF has place claims but cannot see him beating the front 2.Fair point re QE and being unexposed,and if his jumping is as good as lto that would be encouraging.
Not too bothered re the stats,Kauto seems in top form this season and Long Run winning again is quiet possible given what looks to me a worse race than last year.
Not too bothered re the stats,Kauto seems in top form this season and Long Run winning again is quiet possible given what looks to me a worse race than last year.
I said earlier he often has to tip something for the sake of it, said this could be another one. IMO it is
I took 33/1 NRNB after the King George and am happy enough with that. I don't think 20/1 is great value especially if it's ante post. There must be a 50/50 chance he won't run FFS
The idea of price wise is value betting, this IMO of course, is anything but
14/1 now ante post for christ's sake. Laughable
I took 33/1 NRNB after the King George and am happy enough with that. I don't think 20/1 is great value especially if it's ante post. There must be a 50/50 chance he won't run FFS
The idea of price wise is value betting, this IMO of course, is anything but
14/1 now ante post for christ's sake. Laughable
sorry shockster - only kidding.
I'm warming to the idea that Kauto and Denman might've cut each other's throat last year leaving Long Run to pick up the pieces - Kauto was out on his feet at the end last year so personally would n't read too much into proximity of WAF.
On the other hand, Long Run has that massive Cadoudal engine like Big Bucks so maybe just needs the extended Gold Cup trip to be seem to best effect.
I'm warming to the idea that Kauto and Denman might've cut each other's throat last year leaving Long Run to pick up the pieces - Kauto was out on his feet at the end last year so personally would n't read too much into proximity of WAF.
On the other hand, Long Run has that massive Cadoudal engine like Big Bucks so maybe just needs the extended Gold Cup trip to be seem to best effect.
budd according to hobbs he didnt travel or jump as well as he usually does in the king george and if he runs and jumps and travelles like he did at kempton then he will obviously struggle to make the frame in the gold cup ,he might not even run in the gold cup if he dissapoints in his trial ,but the game is all about ifs and buts ,lets put it another way what if he jumps and travels and is 100% spot on for the gold cup , my take on it is that at the festival most horses are going for it 100% and primed for the big day and as a result jump better and travel better ! as they are much fitter and have been brought to thier peak for the big day some exeptions obviously .
No offence taken RH, enjoy the banter. I actually think Quel Esprit is the best handicapped horse in training, but that is a big step from Gold Cup winner.
Quel Esprit 5 chases 2 falls, 1 brought down completion rate 40%
Kauto Star 30 chases, 2 falls, 1 unseat, 1 pulled up ccompletion rate 87%
Bit of a difference would n't you agree?
Kauto Star 30 chases, 2 falls, 1 unseat, 1 pulled up ccompletion rate 87%
Bit of a difference would n't you agree?
shockster, whats quel esprit handicap?? the fact that he cant jump!!!
Nah, mate - I was being facetious, not so dogmatic that i'd dismiss him on that limited evidence but I'd want to see him complete once (or even twice) before I thought about backing him - if I miss out on him at a big price, sobeit
You can come on here and say you told me so.
You can come on here and say you told me so.
I think you'll find it's 3 falls for Kauto. Remounted at Exeter when it was allowed. Anyway I get your drift, and there are obviously risks involved with backing QE. However the potential is there and the falls I believe mask the ability.
33s lads nrnb shockster or 40s with the risks attached good to see someone going against the crowd .good luck he is unexposed and if his jumping is sorted then who knows .
Just checked GC betting on here and 120 available on QE this morning, last price matched 42. Not had a penny on myself but someone has.
Foyle, I'm on What A Friend and a few quid on Tidal bay lol, hoping Nicholls can weave his magic with either. Both under radar as in the shadows of his other stars.
Shockster, ive said on here a few times that Quel Esprit is ridiculously well handicapped and I really want him to go for the Billy Hills chase on day one, but no bookie has him priced up.
Captain chris probably has the most potential of those behind the top three. Do i think he will win the Gold Cup this year? No, but he can definitely be placed.
Captain chris probably has the most potential of those behind the top three. Do i think he will win the Gold Cup this year? No, but he can definitely be placed.
foyles,
he did not jump well at exeter either,but i take your points about Hobbs comments mate.
Lets wait for his next run then,no problem with that.
At least if he dont stay when hes right then he wont run in GC and you get yer money back.
he did not jump well at exeter either,but i take your points about Hobbs comments mate.
Lets wait for his next run then,no problem with that.
At least if he dont stay when hes right then he wont run in GC and you get yer money back.
Its simple really, pricewise is all about value and at this present time, well up until today when the selection was made. Captain chris was the best value in the race.
Like others have said tom has to make this selection, so he had to pick something and you cant really argue that Captain chris a 20/1 shot is bad value in a race where anything could happen and also so much time before race is run.
CC finished third in a king george that form is nuffink to be sniffed at. Still if i was the owners i would give it another year and head fot the champion chase instead. why rush things??
Like others have said tom has to make this selection, so he had to pick something and you cant really argue that Captain chris a 20/1 shot is bad value in a race where anything could happen and also so much time before race is run.
CC finished third in a king george that form is nuffink to be sniffed at. Still if i was the owners i would give it another year and head fot the champion chase instead. why rush things??
Wellchief, I hope he goes for the Racing Post Chase at Kempton. Then we'll see if he stands up where he should go.
Seary,he finished 20 lengths behind the 2 horses he has to beat in the Gold Cup.
just cos a horse is a fairly big price dont make him the best value,especially when that horse has absolutely no top form at anywhere near 3m 2f.Added to that hes just failed to stay a race over 2f shorter than the race hes being tipped up for.
Its a complete guess by pricewise and personally i would want a bigger price than he advised,a lot bigger on his form this season.So i can argue all day that its bad value.
However i have just agreed to give the horse another chance on the srength of what Foyles says re the trainers comments that he werent right.I think pricewise will be hoping this horse stays better next time,otherwise he will have tipped up a non runner.
just cos a horse is a fairly big price dont make him the best value,especially when that horse has absolutely no top form at anywhere near 3m 2f.Added to that hes just failed to stay a race over 2f shorter than the race hes being tipped up for.
Its a complete guess by pricewise and personally i would want a bigger price than he advised,a lot bigger on his form this season.So i can argue all day that its bad value.
However i have just agreed to give the horse another chance on the srength of what Foyles says re the trainers comments that he werent right.I think pricewise will be hoping this horse stays better next time,otherwise he will have tipped up a non runner.
Foyles - Totally agree with what you are saying regarding Captain Chris.
To me he did not run like a non-stayer at Kempton, he just didn't travel at any stage and his jumping was bad. I think, given that he improves considerably in the Spring (or at least it seems he does), it was to his great credit that he grabbed third after such a laboured display.
Most horses with genuine class stay all day IF they can get into a rhythm. That is the major 'if' with him as he wouldn't have a hope unless he jumps better, but if he was to do that I think he has the class to stay the trip. Whether he is good enough is another matter but he really was the obvious one in my opinion.
As ever, I am a big fan of Pricewise and do respect him, but these ante-post features are about finding horses that will go off much shorter on the day, and to that end he's already on to a winner if he turns up, which does look likely at this stage.
To me he did not run like a non-stayer at Kempton, he just didn't travel at any stage and his jumping was bad. I think, given that he improves considerably in the Spring (or at least it seems he does), it was to his great credit that he grabbed third after such a laboured display.
Most horses with genuine class stay all day IF they can get into a rhythm. That is the major 'if' with him as he wouldn't have a hope unless he jumps better, but if he was to do that I think he has the class to stay the trip. Whether he is good enough is another matter but he really was the obvious one in my opinion.
As ever, I am a big fan of Pricewise and do respect him, but these ante-post features are about finding horses that will go off much shorter on the day, and to that end he's already on to a winner if he turns up, which does look likely at this stage.
Tom, whatever Pricewise picks goes off shorter. come on.
Bud - you could argue that finishing 20l behind Kauto Star and Long Run when he was never comfortable at any stage of the race was a better performance than finishing 7l or whatever it was behind Ghizao getting 10lb at a similar time last term. He went on to win the Arkle like a very good horse.
Anyone that doubts it is possible for him to improve to play a hand in the Gold Cup should really study his form last season. There was not really any possible suggestion that he could reverse form with the other major players but he did, and he did it well, while looking as though the two miles was too short for him. Am sounding like I'm in love with the horse, and I'm actually not. Have never backed him, but just feel he is the one that would be silly to dismiss out of hand.
On another note, I agree with the person that said Synchronised at 171 is a total joke. Does anyone actually believe that? I'm sure he has improved, I'm sure he is not just a soft ground plodder. But I'm also sure he is a good bit further behind Kauto and Long Run than those figures suggest.
Anyone that doubts it is possible for him to improve to play a hand in the Gold Cup should really study his form last season. There was not really any possible suggestion that he could reverse form with the other major players but he did, and he did it well, while looking as though the two miles was too short for him. Am sounding like I'm in love with the horse, and I'm actually not. Have never backed him, but just feel he is the one that would be silly to dismiss out of hand.
On another note, I agree with the person that said Synchronised at 171 is a total joke. Does anyone actually believe that? I'm sure he has improved, I'm sure he is not just a soft ground plodder. But I'm also sure he is a good bit further behind Kauto and Long Run than those figures suggest.
Shockster - true, but this is because he has such a good long-standing record and is far, far more often right than wrong regarding a horse's true price. Guess what I'm saying is that, as others have said, he has to put something up for these features and will probably very often pick the one that he sees as being too big - even if he doesn't really fancy it. His ante-post selections are classic value picks.
True he did not travel or jump.He got 3rd cos of Somersby not staying,the rest either injured or not good enough at this level.
He got beat 20 lenghts.
Any backers of CC for the Gold Cup best hope that Hobbs comments are on the mark.And if they are he has a serious amount of improvement to do.
Still think he will be in the Ryanair,but we will see.
He got beat 20 lenghts.
Any backers of CC for the Gold Cup best hope that Hobbs comments are on the mark.And if they are he has a serious amount of improvement to do.
Still think he will be in the Ryanair,but we will see.
Tom,but last year he had form at the distance required or a bit further.Now he has to prove he stays a lot further and failed at his only attempt,big difference mate.
At the end of the day Pricewise has tipped up a horse out of form,that is not travelling or jumping well,has just got thrashed by 2 of his opponents and has never run well at the required distance or anywhere near it.
At the end of the day Pricewise has tipped up a horse out of form,that is not travelling or jumping well,has just got thrashed by 2 of his opponents and has never run well at the required distance or anywhere near it.
yep budd its all good debate and what the forum is all about ,if we all agreed on everything the game would be boring ,the great thing about these threads is that it prompts knowledgable posters to come up with opinions and insight that we can all learn from ,little snippets that may be missed without debate , i remember the thread put up last year by one of the owners of imperial commander from the year before when he won the gold cup ! reports of the wellbeing and progress of the horse , usefull info direct from the horses mouth son to speak.
^ Kauto has just tweeted to say he's had a nice carrots and oats dinner with a couple of polos for dessert. He's off for a kip now but looking forward to his canter in the morning though he is missing his companion on the gallops Master Minded.He's catering with something called Big Buck's now who seems to think a lot of himself
@Kauto8Star
@Kauto8Star
Thanks for the serious good natured debate. Start looking for next weeks pick in the Champion Hdl.
I think that everyone saying that the GC will definitely be Kauto and Long Run forecast is faintly ridiculous, and I'd be really surprised if that's the case. I can't have Grands Crus winning the race either, because I just don't think he'll stay, and because of his inexperience. Long Run definitely deserves to be favourite, but he's far from bombproof, and I think if Captain Chris wins his prep, which must surely be the Ascot Chase as he wouldn't want to be taking on either Long Run or Time For Rupert and Grands Crus, then he'll definitely be single figures and would deserve to be.
As for next week, I think the Champion Hurdle horse will be Oscars Well. He's been running in 2 mile races with no pace which wouldn't have suited at all, while still running well, and given the improvement he showed in the Spring last year, and his liking for Cheltenham. He'll be much better suited to a much stiffer track, and a stronger pace which will hopefully be guaranteed by Overturn, and I think 25/1 NRNB is a great price.
As for next week, I think the Champion Hurdle horse will be Oscars Well. He's been running in 2 mile races with no pace which wouldn't have suited at all, while still running well, and given the improvement he showed in the Spring last year, and his liking for Cheltenham. He'll be much better suited to a much stiffer track, and a stronger pace which will hopefully be guaranteed by Overturn, and I think 25/1 NRNB is a great price.
Bud,
You might very well be right here, but I guess the major point I am making about him i simply that he could well be capable of major improvement on what we have seen so far from him this term (based on previous Spring improvement), and most importantly of all, I don't think for one second that the King George showed he didn't stay!
Maybe he won't stay the Gold Cup trip but I don't think the King George can be used as evidence against him. When Kauto Star got beaten by Denman he barely held off Neptune Collonges for second, and again last year, he only just got home in front of What A Friend in third. After those performances people are saying he probably won't get home well enough to win it again this year but they are casually neglecting the fact that he stormed up it to win in superb style in 2009 when regaining the throne.
I personally am convinced this is because he jumped and settled into a rhythm on that occasion, unlike the times he was defeated. And so it is for most horses - if you don't find your rhythm you can be made to look a non-stayer at any trip, which is why I think Captain Chris did pretty well to snatch third when he looked like being pulled up with almost a circuit to go.
Major 'ifs' and 'buts' and as I've said before I'm not particularly in his camp, but I do feel there is every chance he'll get the trip 'if' he jumps better and travels more kindly.
You might very well be right here, but I guess the major point I am making about him i simply that he could well be capable of major improvement on what we have seen so far from him this term (based on previous Spring improvement), and most importantly of all, I don't think for one second that the King George showed he didn't stay!
Maybe he won't stay the Gold Cup trip but I don't think the King George can be used as evidence against him. When Kauto Star got beaten by Denman he barely held off Neptune Collonges for second, and again last year, he only just got home in front of What A Friend in third. After those performances people are saying he probably won't get home well enough to win it again this year but they are casually neglecting the fact that he stormed up it to win in superb style in 2009 when regaining the throne.
I personally am convinced this is because he jumped and settled into a rhythm on that occasion, unlike the times he was defeated. And so it is for most horses - if you don't find your rhythm you can be made to look a non-stayer at any trip, which is why I think Captain Chris did pretty well to snatch third when he looked like being pulled up with almost a circuit to go.
Major 'ifs' and 'buts' and as I've said before I'm not particularly in his camp, but I do feel there is every chance he'll get the trip 'if' he jumps better and travels more kindly.
Ok Tom,thats fair points mate.
lets see how he gets on next time,maybe i am reading it wrong.
Surely not!!
lets see how he gets on next time,maybe i am reading it wrong.
Surely not!!
Me too Bud! He might be a total non-stayer but time will tell. These reasoned differences of opinion are what makes the forum work!
They are indeed mate.
My feeling straight after the KG was that Somersby and Captain Chris simply did not stay.
Somersby who i was watching closely as i backed him jumped and travelled really well and just did not get home so no excuse-did not stay.
But as you rightfully point out CC did not travel and jump,so yes its certainly possible that was the reason he got beat so far,rather than simply not staying.
Hobbs says he werent right as has been pointed out.
Horse deserves another chance to convince us he is a GC contender.
My feeling straight after the KG was that Somersby and Captain Chris simply did not stay.
Somersby who i was watching closely as i backed him jumped and travelled really well and just did not get home so no excuse-did not stay.
But as you rightfully point out CC did not travel and jump,so yes its certainly possible that was the reason he got beat so far,rather than simply not staying.
Hobbs says he werent right as has been pointed out.
Horse deserves another chance to convince us he is a GC contender.
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