Supreme Novices

Well I'm glad someone is confident, my winners are Darlan, Dylan Ross & Tetlami in that order so I'm about as confident as one of those Wilderbeast about to jump into the river I think it's called a leap of faith!

All the comments on the SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE from the preview evenings..........

Paul Nicholls: We will possibly run Prospect Wells. He has had a breathing op since his last run and is a big price at 33/1 on his best form. Very classy at home, and goes there with a decent chance, allowing for poor effort last time. Prospect Wells runs. Ran well early in season just getting beat by Steps To Freedom. Hinterland could run.

Philip Hobbs: Colour Squadron is fine after his fall but that was not the ideal prep. He has schooled well since so no reason why he shouldn’t perform on the day. He has not had the strongly run race he needs yet. Colour Sergeant was fine after his recent fall, and should go very well.

Paul Jones (Cheltenham, Festival Guide): Simonsig is the most likely winner if he runs here but I fear they will run him in the wrong race. Looks like he is crying out for a fast-run 2m given his cruising speed. In his possible absence then Midnight Game appeals most as he is coming right at the right time, is the Mullins number one and expected to improve again for better ground than he has faced in Ireland. Paul Jones thinks Simonsig will run Neptune, but if running in the Supreme would win. Steps to Freedom has the best form, whilst Midnight Game is improving

Andrew King (Racing Post): I think Darlan will run and has a major chance as long as his confidence has not been affected by his bad fall last time. I’ve also a sneaky feeling Cinders And Ashes will run very well.

Paul Binfield (Paddy Power rep): Galileo’s Choice was the best of the Irish

Charlie Longsdon: We will run Vulcanite and Hazy Tom. My horses are not right at the moment so you can see from both of their last runs. I was disappointed with Vulcanite at Newbury as he is 7lbs-14lbs better than that. He wants a strong pace and leading last time was hardly ideal. The owner wanted to take him to a valuable staying prize in Dubai instead but thankfully David Redvers has managed to change his mind which is good for me as he runs here. I hope you will see a far improved performance off a strong pace. I think we will reverse Kempton form with Tetlami. Hazy Tom wasn’t right at Ascot so forget that. Dickie Johnson thinks a fast-run 2m will really suit him when he is right so we have taken him out of the Neptune.

Andrew Tinkler: Simonsig schooled very slicky this morning and has the pace to run in either the Supreme or Neptune. They go very, very quick in the Supreme so I would like to see him run here as it would really suit him. He is a real two-miler that would see it out very well. I schooled Darlan today and he went very well and showed no ill effects of his bad fall. Tetlami is by Daylami and has the traits of many offspring of his sire in that he only shows you half his hand as he does what you ask and no more. He has ten times more ability that he has shown.

Kevan Minter (The Colonel): I always find this a hard race to predict. I know some shrewd judges are on Steps To Freedom at 14s but it worries me that he will not have run since November.

Willie Mullins (phone): Very sweet on Midnight Game, but stressed good ground is essential,and we havent seen the best of him by a long way, the faster the ground the better. Sous Le Cieux wants a trip if the ground dries. Midnight Game goes for the Supreme Novices. Needs good ground. Expecting a big run.

Ruby Walsh: likes Darlan,

Noel Meade: Preferred Galileo’s Choice but did say that Dylan Ross would be going and will be better on good ground although he only gave it an each way chance.

Nina Carberry: Also went with Steps to Freedom, she wouldn’t rule out Dylan Ross either.

Patrick Mullins: didn’t think his father’s Midnight Game would be the obvious one here, and we should take a look at the bigger priced Allure of Illusion.

John Francome: Tetlami

Jessica Harrington: Confident of Steps of freedoms chances. Steps to Freedom goes straight to Cheltenham. Decided not to do a prep run at Dundalk. The faster the ground, the better. A great bet!

Tom Segal: Midnight game

Davy Russell: Trifolium "Best novice in Ireland ". Midnight Game’s form is not good enough. Trifolium has more solid form but better ground may not suit.

Henry de Bromhead: Prospect Wells ew

Mike Cattermole: Cinders and Ashes

Jim McGrath: Gallileo's choice

David Pipe: Catch Tammy a lot to do, Close House lightly raced probs run in this or Neptune. Neptune more likely.

Tanya Stephenson: Irish dominated race. Darlan had a heavy fall. She likes Cinders & Ashes. Feels Darlan would have won the Betfair.

Joe Tizzard:  Loves Cinders & Ashes could be a Haydock bog horse but D McCain feels he's not. Could shake them up.

Paddy Power: Loads of money for Darlan. Likes Cash & Go who should be running at Leopardstown for a bit of a school round. Scoped badly last time. Money for Darlan, but fancies Steps to Freedom.

Ruby Walsh: He has no stand out horse in the first, each way at best. Darlan is his preferred ride. Sous Le Cieux needs a longer race.

Barry Geraghty: 2m4f would be better for Simonsig. Darlan was impressive in last gallop.

Donn McClean: Steps to Freedom.

Tony Martin: not impressed with Steps to Freedom. Highlighted Midnight Game’s chances although his main fancy too was Darlan,

Damien McElroy: not impressed with Steps To Freedom. Sweet on Cinders & Ashes and to a lesser extent, Charles Byrnes’ Trifolium. This is so open a race.

Kevin O’Ryan: not impressed with Steps To Freedom. Keener on Galileo’s Choice and then Trifolium but said he’s had strong vibes from the Darlan camp and thinks this could now start as low as 3/1-4s favourite on the day.

Ted Walsh Jr: gave a mention to Steps to Freedom and Montbazon

Walterstown Panel (Damien McElroy, Kevin O’Ryan, Tony Martin, Ted Walsh jr) believed Jessica Harrington’s Steps to Freedom could be better at a flatter Aintree or even Punchestown.

All aboard the Darlan express!! Yes he can jump  Yes he can power up the hill  Yes he would've won the Betfair Hurdle Yes he'll be 3-1 on the day Yes I'm on drugs & No I'm not that confident really. If you take out his last run & his Cheltenham run his comments in running read unextended,very easily & never off the bridle - these rose tinted glasses are great I'll take them.

solvingthepuzzle
06 Mar 12 15:55
Joined:
06 May 10
| Topic/replies: 258 | Blogger: solvingthepuzzle's blog
All aboard the Darlan express!! Yes he can jump  Yes he can power up the hill  Yes he would've won the Betfair Hurdle Yes he'll be 3-1 on the day Yes I'm on drugs & No I'm not that confident really. If you take out his last run & his Cheltenham run his comments in running read unextended,very easily & never off the bridle - these rose tinted glasses are great I'll take them.




I hate fooken drugs takers, dealers everything to do with illegal and controlled substances Drugs ruin lives - FACT And don't subscribe to that sort of talk even if typed out in humor!

drugs save lives ask any hospital....

This is a real headscratcher this year, moreso than in recent memory?

yes really tough

Anyone know much about this French horse Divapour?  I'm guessing from the betting he doesn't have much of a chance, but I don't know how to judge the French form really.

Knuckles wrapped but it was in jest & if you've no sense of humour then perhaps you could just ignore it. I don't think for one moment anyone actually thought it was true, I'm anti drugs myself & in this context it was used as a 'figure of speech'. Your reaction is knee jerk in my opinion but if that's how you feel I'll keep it sombre in future. Have a lovely day & stay happy.

I like Steps To Freedom in that it has some course form and liked the way he battled to make sure he got his nose in front. Don't like the fact he's not run since though and although not 'friendless' he's hardly getting much hype.

I was at Newbury for the Montbazon win, wonder what would have happened if Colour Squadron had not tipped up as he looked like he was travelling strongly.

Not sure I like backing anything that's fallen coming into a race like this, wonder if there's any trends. That saying I'm all over Grumeti in the Triumph so whatyougunnado ;-)

On Montbazon @ 14/1 and Colour Squadron @ 16/1. At todays prices Colour Squadron looks the value to me. Obviously an 'F' by his name is not ideal but to my eyes his was a very soft, slithering kind of fall, and nowhere near as bruising as Darlans.

No problem solving, i know it may seem a little strange now for me to say this but i typed that also in kneejerk humor and i read it back after i clicked the post button i thought feck but thought add better just keep quiet and see if anyone posts anything in response thinking it might just get ignored.

Be happy and have a very profitable cheltenham, i know i will thanks to antepost as always

RF I can understand why STF was the early favourite for this race, but he is another one who though unbeaten, has really questionable form imo. That race at Cheltenham has worked out particularly badly and his form with Sailor's Warn leaves him a lot to find

STS just glad I didn't offend you. At the end of the day we're all here to try & help each other (just don't back the same horses as me & you'll be fine) I think I'm suffering from boredom syndrome horses picked & money down so just looking for some news all the time. I too hope you need a wheelbarrow each day GL.

With STF i'd genuinely wouldn't be surprised if he won or was beat, like. I respect him, you have to really and the pace of the races was almost certainly against him last time out, but I just dont know if he is good enough, which I guess you can say about many of the runners.

STF looked a monster in his Bumpers, but wonder if some of the other horses have caught up physically? We'll see.

Not sure what to make of the news he, a novice, worked all over Oscars Well either!

Roobuck, his form with Sailors Warn sin't that bad. He beat him with a fair bit in hand, albeit receiving weight, but he didn't receive one slap of the whip.

If he'd finished 4 or 5 lengths behind Zarkandar, as Sailors Warn did, well that wouldn't look too bad would it?

5 day decs tomorrow?

There has been much speculation re Darlan after his tumble and where he would have finished. Personally I would have him in front of Sailor's Warn and he was giving him 3lb so a 12lb turnaround with STF, that was my rationale.

I have Darlan at 20s but as have said already would not go in again at the current price. That said I would prefer Darlan over STF at both their respective prices.

Just watched back last year's race (got goosebups the big gay). Hell of a race, bet the in-running betting was entertaining, the front four home all looked like winning it at one point.

33 of the 61 entries confirmed

Will you list them Catch or are they on Post website yet, will check.

not on the RP yet. Wonder if I have time for a quick shower ;-)

Next Deadline is Confirmation by noon on Wednesday, March 7th 2012

no they are too slow!!!!

PHUCKING COME ON YE B8ASTARDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Putting the 33 in order ffs.........wait

Agent Archie (USA) 5    11 7
Allure of Illusion (IRE) 6    11 7
Brick Red (GB) 5    11 7
Catch Tammy (IRE) 6    11 7
Cinders And Ashes (GB) 5    11 7
Close House (GB) 5    11 7
Colour Squadron (IRE) 6    11 7
Darlan (GB) 5    11 7
Diamond Life (GB) 6    11 7
Distant Memories (IRE) 6    11 7
Divapour (FR) 5    11 7
Dylan Ross (IRE) 6    11 7
Ericht (IRE) 6    11 7
Felix Yonger (IRE) 6    11 7
Galileo's Choice (IRE) 6    11 7
Hazy Tom (IRE) 6    11 7
Jimbill (IRE) 6    11 7
Judiciary (IRE) 5    11 7
Make Your Mark (IRE) 5    11 7
Midnight Game (GB) 5    11 7
Molotof (FR) 5    11 7
Monksland (IRE) 5    11 7
Montbazon (FR) 5    11 7
Prospect Wells (FR) 7    11 7
Rocky Wednesday (IRE) 5    11 7
Simenon (IRE) 5    11 7
Sous Les Cieux (FR) 6    11 7
Steps To Freedom (IRE) 6    11 7
Tetlami (IRE) 6    11 7
Trifolium (FR) 5    11 7
Vulcanite (IRE) 5    11 7
Hinterland (FR) 4    10 13
Szabo's Destiny (GB) 4    10 13

Tks for "the 33"

thanks for sticking up all these preview night comments Catch Me.
So many differing opinions that i'm not sure how helpful they are but an interesting read none the less.

So what does it cost to declare at this stage?

Northan,

(© db1974)

that's gone right over my head

More on ORISH forum (my REPORTS thread )

Judiciary (IRE) 5.g (Tim Vaughan) Richard Killoran to ride

Does anyone have the 9 ballotted out horses as it stands or are they declared at the overnight stage?

Darlan (5) , Steps To Freedom (7) , Cinders And Ashes (8) , Galileos Choice (8) , Midnight Game (10) , Montbazon (10) , Trifolium (14) , Colour Squadron (16) , Tetlami (16) , Sous Les Cieux (20) , Felix Yonger (25) , Make Your Mark (25) , Monksland (25) , Prospect Wells (25) , Vulcanite (25) , Agent Archie (33) , Allure Of Illusion (33) , Dylan Ross (33) , Molotof (33) , Hinterland (40)  - Others  50 or more

JP bought Colour Squadron

not confirmed btw,rumour

Midnight Game worked poorly yesterday - WPM just now at a preview

It's a race I was going to avoid but won a free 50 pound bet for it, Gallileos choice looks visually impressive but his form amounts to nothing, he is a typical Weld hype horse, I don't like Darlan at all he fell to far out in the betfair. But a horse I keep coming back to is Colour squadron I can't believe He is a double figure price, am I missing something with him ?

Anyone know whether Molotof will be going in this?

TRIFOLIUM Charles Byrnes/Gigginstown

Hes entered in 4 races Glossy,so anyones guess.
Hes still in it after today,but i do know that BG said he may need further.
Ive backed him ages ago for the Supreme and Neptune,so hoping he runs in one of them,but hes also entered in a couple of the handicaps.

if i had a free 50 bet it would go on Steps to Freedom,think hes the most likely winner,but i do like Montbazon and Tetlami as well.
Tricky for sure!!

It's a nightmare isn't it budd! Not quite so hard to second guess trainers with a horse having couple of entries but next to impossible with 4!

nightmare indeed my friend.

oh and i like Trifolium as well,his form with So Young is pretty good.

Really like Colour Squadron but since 1996 no horse who fell lto went on to win at the festival in a hurdle race!

Wouldn't worry about those sort of stats tee. Read the form rather than trends.

I'm on Montbazon - think he's the most talented horse in the race. As a Montbazon backer I have to respect CS for what might have happened if he had stayed on his feet at Newbury. A few quid e/w at 5ky's 14/1 for 5 places looks a decent bet.

Catch me...

fair play for pulling your horse out...lets hope he can regain the progressive form he showed before the deloitte...I for one can't wait to see him when stepped up in trip...

be lucky

alright Harry

have lumped on for Indian Wells, he will be ready

hey judo...

yep decent bit of value I'd say...

not gunna get involved as am having my max bet on one in the kim muir...love the amateur rider races but this one has been on the radar for 2 years and is going to receive the full wrath...is the only real bit of value I can find and is what I want price wise...just need to find out who rides before unleashing judo...can't wait just the jockey needed now as the form studying has been done...will let you know when I have raped what I want at the price.

much appreciated, send over by pm if you want with instructions, more than happy to wait for the green light to punt it after you sir

looking forward to the tennis

According to Mark Howard today ,JP McManus has bought Colour Squadron.AP to ride?

yes no worries...yep looking forward to tennis although won't be watching as much as I would like as am working like a dog at present...cheltenham looking good, not to much blood spilt yet which is good and the powder is dry...although the cannon is loaded for the kim muir...will shout you pal...

I personally think Darlan is very short but have been told by a well informed contact that THEY have a lot of confidence in him.

only problem is THEY have a terrible record in the race

nice horse though, bit short now

AP will ride Darlan
Has Distant Memories got a squeak?

DM imo does have a squeak,big price makes him worth a speculative punt imo.

I've whittled down my shortlist to Galilieos Choice, Montbazon, Tetlami and Trifolium.

My list comprises 2 horses. If they both lose i'll take it on the chin.

RF,swap GC for STF reckon you have the winner mate.

I've not backed any of these yet btw :-)

tough choice mate

Al ferof was on my shortlist last year and not backed. My shortlists are too long!

Dylan Ross

Good value at 33/1 NRNB.

Has been mixing it with top novices in Ireland. Actually gave weight to Midnight Game last time out when he hit the front far too soon.Should improve for better ground. Trainer/jock have won this twice before.A few of these ahead in the market wont even run.

It's a nightmare trying to get a handle on the Irish horses in this race. Hardly any of them have seen good ground.

I'm with EA all the way here I think DR could be serious value & have stated as much elsewhere on the site. GL all

I fancied Monksland and looks like better ground wouldn't be a problem on breeding. Although the trainer didn't even mention him in the preview!

Gonna join you guys on Dylan Ross. If I fancied Monksland and he's running this guy instead than I should be backing by default. Proven on good ground and no idea why he's a bigger price than the mullins horse he finished in front of.

Isnt Monksland going for the Neptune GCW?

The forgotten horse in the Supreme seems to be Donald McCain's 'second string' Agent Archie. Was very impressive on his hurdling debut, beating a decent sort in a good time. A bit workmanlike last time out, but that was after a break and probably needed it. Will not mind faster ground. His official handicap mark is only 2lbs behind his more fancied & exposed stablemate. Not entered in anything else (the County would have been the obvious alternative). Couldn't resist the inflated odds on here.

1pt Agent Archie @ 80

Donald did say he was running in the Supreme the other day when he gave the Peddlers Cross interview ''Plan A''

Of the rank outsiders I'd give another chance to Distant Memnories - was running well off 113 on the flat last summer and so hopefully the better ground, bigger field and faster pace will suit him much better than the slowly run soft/heavy races in Ireland he has contested.

Reminds me a bit of Ebaziyan who sparang a shock in this race, so I've thrown a few quid at him at around 100's.

Steps To Freedom and, more to the point, Midnight Game noticeably weak at the moment (though admittedly not a great deal up on the to back side).  Other than Mullins' downbeat assessment of MG's work the other night, have I missed something?

dylan ross definitely wants good ground and has been running really well on mostly unsuitable ground for the last two seasons

Dylan Ross will be my only play in this race.

An enigma of a horse. Cruises through his race (which I like), then doesn't seem overly keen to kill of the race (which I don't like). Where have we seen that before?

Still, he looks good; will be certain to improve on the better ground next week...more than most; Carberry will be back in the saddle (I expect)......and I suspect he will benefit with the race being run on the Old Course. He doesn't look particularly novicey. He takes his hurdles pretty cleanly so the moving of the final hurdle closer to the finish should aid him at the end of the race.

Dylan Ross

Lovin all the love

Hope it goes well for you chaps but just can't be having the fella with that many 2's next to his name.

Good ground could be the making of him. Fully expect him to place, will be the last one of the bridle anyway

THE ORISH in the Supreme.........

2 Allure Of Illusion, W P Mullins
10 Distant Memories, T J Taaffe
12 Dylan Ross, Noel Meade
14 Felix Yonger, W P Mullins
15 Galileo's Choice, D K Weld
20 Make Your Mark, W P Mullins
21 Midnight Game, W P Mullins
23 Monksland, Noel Meade
26 Rocky Wednesday, Gordon Elliott
27 Simenon, W P Mullins
28 Sous Les Cieux, W P Mullins
29 Steps To Freedom, Mrs John Harrington
30 Szabo's Destiny, Gordon Elliott
32 Trifolium, C Byrnes


Darlan (5) , Steps To Freedom (15/2) , Galileos Choice (8) , Cinders And Ashes (17/2) , Midnight Game (10) , Montbazon (10) , Tetlami (14) , Trifolium (14) , Colour Squadron (16) , Prospect Wells (20) , Sous Les Cieux (20) , Vulcanite (20) , Felix Yonger (25) , Make Your Mark (25) , Monksland (25) , Agent Archie (33) , Allure Of Illusion (33) , Dylan Ross (33) , Molotof (33) , Hinterland (40)  - Others  50 or more

paddypoweraudioteam ‏ @PPaudioteam


@izita_monstar @WillieMullinsNH That should read Allure Of Illusion, Midnight Game & Simenon #gigginstownblondemoment


WPMs runners in SN

Open race, but Galileo's Choice must go well on better ground. Very classy on the flat. Agent Archie, Distant Memories & Vulcanite can also go well at much bigger prices.

Yeah Monksland is going for the Neptune.

Does no-one fancy Dodging bullets? Finished behind Grumeti last time but that was his hurdling debut and he pulled hard. Faster pace of this race should suit as should the stiffer track since he got a little outpaced last time. Think he can go well at decent odds.

Sorry I'm a bit hungover and head is all over the place. He's f course going for the Triumph.

Lord Windermere won today which is a boost to Dylan Ross & Sous Les Cieux

Boston Bob will be kept to the end of the week for the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle. I was talking to Mr Wylie (owner) this morning and that is what I said and he is happy enough to do that.

Midnight Game, Simenon and Allure of Illusion will probably be my three runners in the Supreme Novice Hurdle

while Mark Your Mark and Sous Les Cieux will run in the Neptune Novices.

I've not made decision on which race Felix Yonger will run in yet.
In the World Hurdle I will have four runners - Mourad, Mikael d'Haguenet, So Young and Thousand Stars. - WPM.

Dylan Ross ew with Sky Bet is a great bet @ 25/1 first 5 places.

Cheers for the confirmations CMIYC

Surely Hazy Tom at 50s is value. Longsdon coming back to form, thrashed Sea of Thunder earlier in the season who franked form (if hadn't fell at last at Chelters) and was sent off 6/4 fav when beat by Balder Sucess at Ascot. Has ran a shocker twice at Ascot, but is unbeaten going left-handed. Battled to beat It's a Gimme, another decent type and with Skybet paying 5 places 1/4 odds has to be a play.

I agree aa,to get the real value have to be able to forgive the odd shocker.Think he still just about falls into the could be anything category.If this his ground and he's over his issues..could go v .close.IMO.

My point entirely, the horse just doesn't seem to fire at ascot, plus the fact that Longsdon seems to always go through a poor patch in the depths of winter. I was there at Aintree when he beat It's a Gimmme with McCoy in full flight and couldn't help but be impressed, watching that I'm certain the horse will get up the hill. Also with Paintball winning saturday, along with a few other recent victories for the trainer, the 50s seems far, far too big.

Dylan Ross

Ted Walsh quite sweet on this.

Cheers GI Mac, you convinced me to get on too. Solid last few races. Even clattering the last couldn't stop it. Gteat start!

Cheers GI Mac, you convinced me to get on too. Solid last few races. Even clattering the last couldn't stop it. Gteat start!

what was the winning time?

3m 52.4 (tape) good going.

GI MAC     28 Dec 11 18:36 
I've had a decent bet on Cinders and Ashes, who has impressed me. Trainer rates him highly, and as you say not looking like a vintage renewal atm, so I think he could run well.



Well done!!Impressive early shout.

well done C&A backers. Wasn't sure he had the class, but he did!

Money Back Joy - Darlan

Money Back Joy for Ladbrokes customers! We are in the process of refunding losing single bets, up to £25, on Darlan after he was second in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.



Anyone got the T+Cs of that offer??

Upto to £25 ? w8nkers