Cheltenham Festival
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Cheers, anybody else (who perhaps is a slightly bigger price Grand Cru for the Gold Cup
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3/1 nrnb for long run loooks decent enough
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Kauto 2 nil this season, can't really see why he won't make it 3 imo.
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think the hill will bring kauto back a bit,look at last year he had nothing left after the last ,, think the hill will make it closer , but long run will beat him at chelters
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Long Run looks like he needs the Gold Cup trip now - an even 3 miles seems too short.
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not really, he's beaten the rest off over three miles, just couldn't live with kauto's jumping. he would've won the kg by nearly 20 lengths today had kauto not shown up.
still think unless kauto can somehow dictate a very modest pace in the gold cup, he'll always be oustayed. |
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Sorry, that was what I meant really. Stamina is Long Run's strength - he's been outjumped, and to an extent outpaced, twice in a row by a horse 5 years his senior.
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C.H. - Hurricane Fly 2/1 (9/4 with a few)
Q.M. - Sizing Europe 5/2 (11/4 generally) W.H. - Big Bucks 4/7 everywhere G.C. - Long Run 2/1 (9/4 or 5/2 freely available) TAKE YOUR PICK....... LUCKY 15 €uro returns 184.14 (11.276 to 1) 11 €uro Yankee returns a 14.733 to 1 shot 5 €uro Trixie & Accum returns 16.34 to 1 |
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Long Run is due a fall in my opinion especially with krusty the clown with the loose reins on board. Kauto wasnt right last year thats why he didnt finish at cheltenham. Kauto or Grand crus for me
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This is the Long Run that's run 8 hurdles and 12 chases and completed every one?
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Thats the one. He will hit a couple of fences at cheltenham when kauto and grand crus turn the screw and its amazing he hasnt fallen yet to be fair. Wonder will they change tactics and let him go out in front
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strontium
To be fair to robelnino his point isn't invalidated by that fact. Given his often sketchy jumping the horse could be argued to be due a fall. I'd be careful about betting against him but I certainly wouldn't take short odds in any championship race about him. |
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No, I appreciate he's not a great jumper but he never really looks like falling. Well balanced chasers don't - they can hit a fence, often hard, and stay on their feet. We've all seen Kauto and Masterminded go through fences that would have brought down any normal horse.
I think it's likley Long Run will be out-jumped by something. I also agree with your opinion of him as a a betting proposition. I'd be surprised if he falls. |
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The reason long run doesn't fall is because he ploughs through the birch and rather cleverly holds back his body. He's an extremely well balanced horse & while I've seen him clout many fences I have never thought he was gna fall once. Anyway I hope he isn't falling anytime soon. Personally think he will beat Kauto at Chelt but we will see. I have to say Kauto's jumping is probably at its best ever isn't it?
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Agree Eternaloptimist - he doesn't look like falling but it would hardly surprise if he did, given the way he ploughs through some fences. More to the point, he must lose so many lengths in shuddering errors and loss of momentum - that's the real reason that his jumping means he should always be taken on at short prices in Grade One events.
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Laddies might be nrnb as they were last year but the difference is, unlike last year, they are rule 4 may apply also so be careful!
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how can they be nrnb if a rule 4 may apply.
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That makes 0 sense imvho
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They are shorter on almost every horse, that is your rule 4?
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Go into any laddies shop and ask them to put a race up they are nrnb for and it clearly states on the bottom of the page
'NON RUNNER - MONEY BACK - RULE 4 MAY APPLY' |
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simply reads Non runner = money back on their website
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That confused me too, Seathestars. I asked in the shop and they said Rule4 only applies after final decs in week of race. Otherwise it's just treated like any other antepost market. I checked this by calling their Customer Service number and they confirmed it. It's a decent offer imo...
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I asked about it in my local shop and the chap said rule 4 will apply. That said i was also told this last year too and it was later confirmed as a mistake and it was removed from their chelters screens shortly after. I guess it will only be applied to cover themselves should they be hit by a big r4 of say Big Bucks god forbid comes out or any other banker for that matter.
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I used the example of Kauto Star being a N/R when I rang their Customer Services (I backed Long Run @ 3/1). Asked if a withdrawal of Kauto would lead to a 20p in the £ reduction on my bet. Was told categorically not - it's an ante-post bet.
Still not 100% confident but think it will be fine. After all, surely a major betting operation offering an attractive price and then voiding all bets as an error is totally unthinkable in this day and age... ;-) |
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I categorically inform all & sundry that Rule 4 is NOT applicable to the L'broke NRNB concession.
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same as last year no rule 4, dont speak to muppets in shop!
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