Cheltenham Festival
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24 Dec 11
16:01
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10 Nov 07
Cracker this...
Grand Cruise out to keep unbeaten record in tact over fences. The likeable Bobs Worth putting his unbeaten record on the line. Silviniaco Conti promises to be a top class Chaser.. all the ingredients needed for a cracking race...
Grand Cruise is out to find out whether any Gold Cup aspirations are realistic but going right handed for first time and that has to be a slight question mark...personally think, he won't have a problem..he looks high class to me and beat a future Gold Cup horse giving weight...a worthy fav for this...
You have to love Bobs Worth very genuine this fella just keeps finding and won't give up... the step up to 3 miles will suit but he will have to improve on his debut run when he took an eternity to pick up after Cue Card bumped him 4 out and almost catapulted Geraghty out the side door..Geraghty though gave him time to recover and he really stuck his neck out on the run in...not entirely convinced this track will suit although he has won here...really hope he keeps going the right way as his attitude is second to none.
Silviniaco Conti form tailed off a little after looking like going right to the top over hurdles but Chasing was always going to be his game and he showed at Wincanton what a good jumper of a fence he is...he is a strong traveller but has shown before he also finds so 3 miles should suit and I can see him going very short in running in this...track likely to suit he has a solid chance..
Tea for three is a nice horse but he will want further in time and softer ground will also suit...
the others won't win although Mr Moonshine is a nice horse who ran well against seasoned horses last time...
I have to say I took the ew a pleasure first 3 on Silviniaco Conti at 9-2 as think he is uncomplicated ride and think the track will play to his strenghts...that option no longer available however after a couple of late defections... Grand Cruise still sets a high benchmark and you can guarantee we will have to go right through the ringer to win the candy...
What does everyone else think??
Grand Cruise out to keep unbeaten record in tact over fences. The likeable Bobs Worth putting his unbeaten record on the line. Silviniaco Conti promises to be a top class Chaser.. all the ingredients needed for a cracking race...
Grand Cruise is out to find out whether any Gold Cup aspirations are realistic but going right handed for first time and that has to be a slight question mark...personally think, he won't have a problem..he looks high class to me and beat a future Gold Cup horse giving weight...a worthy fav for this...
You have to love Bobs Worth very genuine this fella just keeps finding and won't give up... the step up to 3 miles will suit but he will have to improve on his debut run when he took an eternity to pick up after Cue Card bumped him 4 out and almost catapulted Geraghty out the side door..Geraghty though gave him time to recover and he really stuck his neck out on the run in...not entirely convinced this track will suit although he has won here...really hope he keeps going the right way as his attitude is second to none.
Silviniaco Conti form tailed off a little after looking like going right to the top over hurdles but Chasing was always going to be his game and he showed at Wincanton what a good jumper of a fence he is...he is a strong traveller but has shown before he also finds so 3 miles should suit and I can see him going very short in running in this...track likely to suit he has a solid chance..
Tea for three is a nice horse but he will want further in time and softer ground will also suit...
the others won't win although Mr Moonshine is a nice horse who ran well against seasoned horses last time...
I have to say I took the ew a pleasure first 3 on Silviniaco Conti at 9-2 as think he is uncomplicated ride and think the track will play to his strenghts...that option no longer available however after a couple of late defections... Grand Cruise still sets a high benchmark and you can guarantee we will have to go right through the ringer to win the candy...
What does everyone else think??
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I have backed Mr Moonshine for the Feltham and the RSA. He lacked the speed to beat high class 2 milers last time but won both of his novice chases very easily.
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Personally feel it's between the front 2 in the market as it often is in these type of races. It would not surprise me if Silviniaco Conti won but I thought he was beaten pretty convincingly by Cue Card. The value for me lies with Bob's Worth. He will come on for the race at Newbury & you will have to think he will enjoy 3 miles around Kemton. Obviously Grand Crus is going to be hard to beat.
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I think 3 miles round Kempton will be more to the liking of Grands Crus than Bobs Worth. I think Grands Crus is the speedier, I wonder if SC might be his biggest rival in this race.
I've backed Grands Crus already for the RSA and think he is the classiest novice this year. I think Bobs Worth will run him closer there with the test of Cheltenham more in his favour than Kempton IMO |
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agree conti lot to prove
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I don't think this race has any relevance for the 2012 Gold Cup. I also think BW may turn out to be the best of these in the long term. He's very likeable. Good staying chasers tend to be tough rather than flash.
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Good write up Harry. I kind of agree with Resnar here. Whilst i imagine Bobs will run well, i think they almost have nothing to lose knowing almost certainly that he will improve in the RSA. I think the way Silviniaco handled Wincanton (admittedly that race fell apart) suggests this may suit an an alternative.
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I am a massive Grands Crus fan and although I rate the other two perceived big guns pretty highly I think they will be handed a lesson here. I would love to the see GC blow a good field apart over fences and win like he did in the Cleeve last year. Just watched that race again on youtube and it remains one of the most striking performances I have seen for many a year.
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Thanks Mr Carver..
Agree with what you said about the Wincanton race but feel this is Silviano Conti's Gold Cup and he will be trained to the minute for this as I feel he is always going to be better this way round...agree with you as well Tom but if Grand Cruise is going to get beat I just think racing right handed for the first time and the likely good ground he will encounter may just count him out... Being honest though he will take the beating and could win easy really and I also think he is a machine...if he does win on the snaff by 10 will they go the Gold Cup route?? People must be warned that the Pipes aren't the biggest fan of the RSA... If he does win by 10 against these potentially decent Novices will they have any choice, after all they (martin probably) have touted the race?? I have to say as much as I am massive fan of Bobs Worth I fear for him here...he needs to improve and is Kempton the place to find out?? We will really find out a lot about him here...his chasing career that is... I will never knock him however as he is the one horse that says so much about the game and reminds me a lot of Persian Punch, don't know why...lets hope he runs well... |
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^ All pertinent points, and I agree especially about Bobs Worth. He is a real trier and exactly the sort of horse that I warm to. Hard not to really, even though he scuppered what would have been my biggest ever win in the Albert Bartlett last year. Fancied Mossley big time (excused his no-show on desperate ground prior to Cheltenham) and had a fair sized bet at nearly 33s on here, only to see Bobs Worth outpoint him up the hill. Oh well...
If the ground was softer I would be all over Grands Crus with a max bet but expect him to still get the job done on this surface. And yes, the Gold Cup would surely come into the equation if he does hack up. Especially if Long Run was to disappoint later on and something like Diamond Harry or Somersby won the King George. A lot of 'ifs' there I know, but it is another interesting piece of the ante-post puzzle at this point in time! |
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Yes a lot of questions will be answered at Kempton on boxing day...
This looks an intriguing race...definitely a cracking renewal of the Feltham... Grand Cruise in particular will answer a big question I need answering if he wins...not telling what that question is however...but a nice piece of jigsaw will fall into place lets say. Interesting looking at how the race should be run with Mr Moonshine a front runner as is Teaforthree and Silviano Conti likes to be prominent...Bobs Worth also races quite prominently in his races...interesting.. This should allow Grand Cruise to get the pace he desires and I'd imagine the race is actually going to be set up for him...aww if only the rain would of come...it really would be the time to get the cannon out! |
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Well interesting stuff today with the News the owner wants to run Grand Cruise in the Gold Cup....
I have to say on a personal point of view I think it is the right decision...I think he should not be underestimated either and adds real spice to this years Gold Cup with Long Run still not entirely convincing me and Kauto Star being 12 come the race...this young pretender to the crown, will be ridden for the place and has a potent turn of foot, he is very exciting to my eyes... People will argue that he should go for the RSA but for me the staying Novice division is looking extremely hot to me and I think this fellow in the Gold Cup is just going to jump and travel as shown off of fast fractions in the Feltham...the owner is correct to go this route and I for one see his logic although others with vouchers for the RSA will not...the perils of trying to second guess trainers and owners I am afraid... |
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If we are going to keep discussing this horse please can we learn to spell its name? Or at least half its name?
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all good fun stront
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We seem to go through this every year, to name a few over the last couple of years Time For Rupert, Cue Card, Dunguib, Long Run and/or Punchestown. As it turned out none of these were even good enough to win their novice race. To me the owner is seriosuly misguided if he truly believes that his horse will be safer or better off long term in the Gold Cup. How many novices that have run in the Gold Cup have gone on to have long successful careers? I can't think of any.
Its no surprise when you look at the top trainers Nicholls, Henderson and Mullins that they ALWAYS use the novice routes properly to let their horses develop and give them the best grounding for their assaults on the championship races in their second season. |
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The reason top trainers avoid it with novices is because the Gold Cup is one of the most grueling races for any type of horse. Year after year horses don't perform the same after the race. It is a ridiculous ask for a novice who is still learning no matter how old they are or how much they have learned over hurdles. The race takes any horse out of it's comfort zone but I honestly think it's a step too far for novices even if they are deemed to be good enough. I personally think it's no dead cert he will win the RSA.
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I concur Master, a very worthy fav he'd be but far from over the line.
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Barnesy I see where you are coming from...but one must also take on board how gruelling the RSA is also...It takes a huge amount out of them as well, Brief Gale, Nahthen lad, Hanakham, Hussard collonges, Cooldine and a host of other young horses who have contested the RSA haven't gone on, from the race...it is a proper test of a young horse...
I personally think Grand Cruise is quite a seasoned horse who will be put to sleep at the back and ridden for a place...yes it is going to get tough over the last 3 gruelling furlongs but it is for them all...one must also remember long run was 6 when he won this years gold cup...Grand Cruise will be 7 and is a seasoned non backward 7 year old at that... |
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Barnsey and MM, I agree entirely. There's a good reason no novice has won the race since the mid 70s. Dawn Run was the last horse to win after fewer than 6 chase starts.
GC is completely dfferent from Long Run who was an experienced chaser (and Grade 1 winner) in France. And yes, the RSA is a proper test of a young horse. And the Gold Cup much more so. |
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Sorry Harry, usually I would just say agree to disagree etc but for me it is impossible to argue that the RSA is anything like the test a Gold cup is under any circumstances. The Gold Cup will still be there next year exercise patience and you will give yourself best chance of reward.
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Horses in the major yards....and David Pipe's is certainly one of those....tend to run in the races that their trainer believes give them the best chance of success. It is the owner's prerogative of course to insist - the Mould's did it last year with Sprinter Sacre in the Supreme when Hendo wanted to leave him at home. My guess is that Grand Crus(whose owners live in Cheltenham by the way)will contest the race that David Pipe choses. If Long Run and Kauto don't turn up though who knows?
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The way I would look at it is you could go into the festival with a favs chance in the RSA. A race that you only get one shot at and that you could build on. If you win you've got a whole season next year to look forwards to including a shot at the Gold Cup. The worst case scenario is you lose the RSA in which case further confirms you shouldn't be running in the Gold Cup. The best case scenario in the Gold Cup is winning it of course but personally don't think he will. Worst case you could ruin your horse and finish nowhere. Or even coming 2nd or 3rd would piss me off as you could have probs won an RSA instead.
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It's also rather unusual for a horse to improve in their second Gold Cup nowadays. Their first go is almost always their best chance of winning.
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Festivalfanatic,
David Pipe's yard is certainly a top yard but not an elite yeard like the three i mentioned. In my opinion at least his father ruined a few decent horses by not being patient with them. This is the first really good novice he has had really so we will see. The Sprinter Sacre example is tenuous to me, the owners wanted a runner at Cheltenham and went for the most suitable race, that is understandable. |
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Barnsey
I think Grand Crus will contest the RSA. There is an outside chance of him appearing in the Gold Cup but only if Kauto and Long Run are missing. My example of Sprinter Sacre was only to highlight the fact that in the end, as the owners pay the bills the owners decide. Usually though they listen to the trainer, who normally has the best interests of the horse at heart. |
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Time will tell, owner has said 70/30 Gold Cup today according to Racing Post
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Fanatic you say the owner pays the bills and he decides??
Well this owner has just stated all over the front of the racing bible (racing post) that he wants the horse to run in the gold cup so I would say it certainly is not an outside chance he will turn up, I would say it is odds on depending on how the horse performs in the Argento... |
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He's not the sole owner though. And he also be wise to take his trainer's advice and expertise (which is after all what he's paying for)
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I'd be more convinced if David Pipe came out and said he wanted the horse to contest the Gold Cup. Maybe he agrees with the owners.....
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I don't think it is any coincidence that all year long pipe has made noises about the Gold Cup...as I have said before in this thread the pipe's do not like the RSA...you would have to ask them why..
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Does David Pipe = Martin Pipe?
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Yes Stront in my opinion...
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Intriuging hc. Don't have a financial interest in either race at this stage but he would have to be very special to beat Long Run and Kauto if both are fit and well on the day. Without them though who knows and they always say you should never be frightened to take one on.
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Certainly not black and white but I think it also depends to an extent how highly you rate Big Buck's.
Seems to me that Grands Crus was something in the realm of 4-5lb below him last year (who knows, maybe more as that tank is a hard horse to measure against). If he has improved at all, which seems fairly likely as he is settling better, a year older/stronger, and jumping just as well over fences, then does that not put him potentially on a similar mark as Long Run and Kauto? |
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Aye just like it did Punchestowns Tom
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True, but Punchestowns didn't win a very good Feltham as he pleased before heading to the Festival over fences.
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I have to say fanatic I haven't got involved yet myself just find it very interesting...
For me personally I think this horse just oozes class and if the price is right on the day I can see me having small investment on the horse... People may try and crab the horse for the speed he showed in the Feltham but for me when he took it up off of fast fractions just showed me class and if scudamore holds on to him long enough I really can see him cruising 2 out in the gold cup and going very short in the run...I found it very interesting that when Ruby Walsh got off his horse in the feltham, he said he thought the race rode like a very good race... |
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Ruby renowned as a fine judge of form. Did he think the King George was a good race?
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Please can we refrain from using the word Punchestowns on this thread...the horse caused me much pain in the RSA...35k in a beautiful treble many thanks...have just had the stitches removed from my arse****
kind regards |
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Not sure what he said about the George but he was impressed with how the Feltham rode...
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