Cheltenham Festival
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Just been sifting through a few threads and read some interesting comments regarding the race this (next) year, and conflicting opinions regarding the chances of Long Run repeating last year's success. Obviously at this early stage it's impossible to form a strong opinion, but I do think it's worth collecting these thoughts together in one thread for future reference.
Personally, although it was a fantastic spectacle, I'm not overly convinced last year's race was a vintage renewal. Yes, Long Run was clearly very impressive and it's hard to knock a horse who's broken the track record, but conditions on the day dictated it was always a possibility. Denman and Kauto Star running 2nd and 3rd, while bringing a tear to my eye, also helped cement my view that the race lacked any real depth. Imperial Commander burst a blood vessel and was pulled up, Kempes was pulled up, and the only other horse on offer at a single figure price was Midnight Chase, who although ran a respectable race, could not boast any form out of handicap company. Given then that Denman and Kauto Star were entitled to to finish 2nd and 3rd, as 11 year old's, and although exceptional horses at that, I'm not sure a 7 length victory told us we'd found a horse who would dominate this race for years to come, and I'm not convinced that a stronger field would of allowed Long Run to get away with the jumping errors he made.
This year's potential field looks to be far stronger. Sadly, Weapon's Amnesty is out again for the season, as his RSA win over Long Run made him a very appealing bet, even at this early stage. Burton Port finished 2nd in the same race, and given the way he ran in last year's Hennessey Gold Cup, he'd have to have a massive chance of confirming superiority over Long Run should he return from injury with the same ability and be targeted at the race. Time For Rupert must have a massive chance, again if injury hasn't blunted his talent, while horses like Kempes and Pandorama I'm convinced would of put up a stronger show with a bit more juice in the ground. Last year's RSA winner Boston's Angel looks to be promising, as do 2nd and 3rd Jessie's Dream and Wayward Prince. Throw into the mix Diamond Harry (although personally I'm not sure), along with Quito De La Roque, potentially Captain Chris and Rubi Light, and I'm not sure id be going anywhere near Long Run at double his current price, however much he's entitled to have improved from last year's run.
Thoughts?
Personally, although it was a fantastic spectacle, I'm not overly convinced last year's race was a vintage renewal. Yes, Long Run was clearly very impressive and it's hard to knock a horse who's broken the track record, but conditions on the day dictated it was always a possibility. Denman and Kauto Star running 2nd and 3rd, while bringing a tear to my eye, also helped cement my view that the race lacked any real depth. Imperial Commander burst a blood vessel and was pulled up, Kempes was pulled up, and the only other horse on offer at a single figure price was Midnight Chase, who although ran a respectable race, could not boast any form out of handicap company. Given then that Denman and Kauto Star were entitled to to finish 2nd and 3rd, as 11 year old's, and although exceptional horses at that, I'm not sure a 7 length victory told us we'd found a horse who would dominate this race for years to come, and I'm not convinced that a stronger field would of allowed Long Run to get away with the jumping errors he made.
This year's potential field looks to be far stronger. Sadly, Weapon's Amnesty is out again for the season, as his RSA win over Long Run made him a very appealing bet, even at this early stage. Burton Port finished 2nd in the same race, and given the way he ran in last year's Hennessey Gold Cup, he'd have to have a massive chance of confirming superiority over Long Run should he return from injury with the same ability and be targeted at the race. Time For Rupert must have a massive chance, again if injury hasn't blunted his talent, while horses like Kempes and Pandorama I'm convinced would of put up a stronger show with a bit more juice in the ground. Last year's RSA winner Boston's Angel looks to be promising, as do 2nd and 3rd Jessie's Dream and Wayward Prince. Throw into the mix Diamond Harry (although personally I'm not sure), along with Quito De La Roque, potentially Captain Chris and Rubi Light, and I'm not sure id be going anywhere near Long Run at double his current price, however much he's entitled to have improved from last year's run.
Thoughts?
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Great stuff dwm.
I really like Long Run and he put up IMO a terrific effport for a 6yr old (apparently, also, he was only 5 in callender yrs, having been born in May). Apparently he has grown and strengthened again. I cannot see how anyone who finished the race can reverse the form (Imperial, i fear, has had his chance now, but at his best could give LR a race). I did not like the RSA but suspect Quelle Esprit could be much better than we've seen. I do not know enough about Kauto Stone. Diamond Harry is talented enough IMO but seems hard to catch right in the spring and Nick Williams seems convinvced he wants a flat track. I do not think Wishful Thinking will be good enough ultimately and Captain Chris (who I like enormously) will probably (it seems) not be stepped up that far this yr. The biggest worry for me with Long Run then is not his opposition but his jumping. Maybe that will improve as he matures, and as he strengthens, but that is my biggest concern right now. |
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long run gives the impression that he's something special...all those mentioned above don't...not very scientific i know but there you go
 ...i have been wondering that, with kauto and denman now in decline, could long run suffer the same fate as best mate .....reigning supreme over a sub-standard bunch....i mean, midnight chase single figures in a gold cup...not too convinced by last years rsa either. |
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Lon Run worthy fav no doubt,but he did beat horses past their best so i am happy to bet against him at this stage,especially given his price,which may be right, but for me too short to back at this stage.
Of the likely opposition on the day i can only see last years RSA horses and Quito dlr challenging seriously. I dont see DHarry as a chelt horse,and i cannot see CChris lining up,think he will be in QM.Hobbs other horse WT will be in Ryannair imo as i dont think he will be good enough at 3m2,and probably wont stay anyway. MM wont stay 3m2,not in a million years. Out of the RSA horses i would favour TFR,but would not be surprised to see any of BA,JD,Magnaminity,MDH,QE and WP running big races. Thats my early thoughts,and ive had a nibble at a few,think theres value in this race this season |
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TFR is the other from the RSA who I think can step up significantly.
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long run at 5-2 no thanks should be 4s
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Long Run has a King George and a Gold Cup under his belt already. You can ask what did he beat last year in the Gold Cup, but then there are plenty of questions - which you yourself have highlighted - about possible opponents this season.
LR acts on the course and on the likely good ground and still has time for further improvement. His jumping can be sketchy, especially in the early part of a race, but that's the only chink in his armour. Would I back him now? No, because there's no point. He might get injured but if he turns up on the day assuming he's not done anything stupid this season, he will go off worthy favourite. |
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Diamond Harry is an interesting one - I'm not convinced by him at Cheltenham, but maybe that's a bit premature to say as I'm only basing it on his run in the RSA of 2010 where he never looked settled in the race. Clearly talented as he proved in the Hennessey Gold Cup, however his form would suggest he's best mad fresh, and given that, should Time For Rupert beat him on Saturday for me that would represent excellent form, and given his love for the track in my mind he'd be the value play for the Gold Cup at this stage.
The issue is with Diamond Harry returning from injury if he's beaten Saturday there will be a nagging doubt that he's not come back the same horse, plus I think if Time For Rupert does win Saturday convincingly his price for the Gold Cup will half. I have great respect for Long Run and what he's achieved, but as has been mentioned his jumping is a concern. |
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Have been a fan since is very first run on these shores and can only see Long Run improving tbh. He has age on his side as well as experience compared to most of the challengers. Will take a very good one to beat him on his best form from last year. If his jumping improves again I can't see any getting close.
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Sorry for being unoriginal!
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Don't apologise MM, I was interested to gauge the overall view of him...in a number of other threads I found extremes from he's the 2nd coming, to a one hit wonder! I was a huge fan of his after he won the Feltham, and I backed him for the King George last year, however I wasn't convinced he was robust enough to win a Gold Cup; should mention I backed him for the RSA in 2010 as well, I guess that went some way to shaping my concerns!
I'm sure he'll improve too, however rightly or wrongly I suppose I'm always going to have doubts about him at Cheltenham - I can't pinpoint why, and it sounds ridiculous to say but I get the impression he may be susceptible to a horse which lacks his obvious class, but develops into a real street fighter who can serve it up to him in future Gold Cups. Fantastic to have his sort about though, and look forward to what unfolds...! :) |
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well ill stick my neck out.
Long Run beat horses at an end of an era last year coming at him from all angles thi season 9-4 joke price imo |
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agreed
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Don't agree entirely with the posts immediately as it has to be said that a win for a 6yo in a record breaking time from two of the best chasers of all time does bode well for his future and ominously for layers on paper. However, evidence from last season certainly suggests that both Denman and Kauto Star had begun their decline. Now that may well still mean that they are able to compete at a very high standard but having watched the race again, the visual impression I got was that the old timers had Long Run in trouble until approaching two out where it was apparent that Sam Waley-Cohen was going to get him up. I felt there, that Kauto and Denman had rather gone toe to toe with each other a little early and were merely serving themselves up as a target to aim at.
The alternative view of course is that had Ruby opted to let Midnight Chase take them along for longer then it may have been that the younger legs would have done him for pace off a more modest gallop. All things considered it has to be said that Long Run's price for a repeat is one to stay away from despite him being clearly the best staying chaser around, especially with his two closest rivals from last year now rising 12. But the season is long and my opinion is that there are too many potential improver's this year to expect that not at least a couple of them not to really come out of the woodwork. A soft ground Gold Cup could also potentially throw a spanner in the works for Long Run backers as I wouldn't expect that he is the type of horse that wants a slog and I think that kind of scenario could be detrimental to his jumping. At the moment the most obvious challenger has got to be Time For Rupert whose only failure last year came in the RSA Chase where he suffered a burst blood vessel. Under the circumstances he did remarkably and with Long Run having also been well beaten in the same race the year before it wouldn't put me off anyway, especially given the tremendous record he had round Cheltenham previously. He was a top class hurdler and arguably looked like he could be even better over fences in his 2 races prior to the festival last year and if you consider the horses he beat (Chicago Grey - 4m festival winner, Quinz - Racing Post Chase Winner, Hells Bay - Dipper Winner, Divers - Centenary Winner plus other subsequent winners such as Balthazaar King, Robo, Quantativeeasing) then the form stacks up extremely well. It also suggests that had he been right then he may well have won the RSA although it is impossible to say as none of his form is comparable to that of Jessie's Dream and Bostons Angel who were 1st and 2nd. A win for him tomorrow in what looks an excellent Charlie Hall renewal would see his price tumble. The same could be said about Diamond Harry though he gave Denman a trouncing in the Hennessy last year, albeit receiving nearly 2 stone. He is another that has always looked a class act but has never looked as good at Cheltenham as he does at Newbury. A wet year could see some of the Irish chasers come into the reckoning with Pandorama, Quel Esprit and Joncol confirmed mud lovers. But Boston's Angel and Jessie's Dream should not be overlooked as they dominated the RSA on good ground last season having also dominated the Irish staying novice chase division. Magnanimity and Quito de la Roque are others that were not far behind those and are open to any amount of improvement. I don't think personally that Master Minded will ever stay the Gold Cup trip and he is becoming more hit and miss with age. Although if he turned up fit and well on Boxing Day I wouldn't rule him out for that. Lastly, I think it is worth mentioning my fancies for the Hennessy because as a rule winners of that race generally become Gold Cup contenders, certainly with the bookmakers. Time For Rupert would be of obvious interest off around 11st if What a Friend or Neptune Collonges turn up but another worth a strong mention is Aiteenthirtythree who has given the impression during the last couple of seasons that he is still strengthening up and that he was not ready for the gruelling RSA in which he was pulled up. He would be running off a very attractive weight if as expected Nicholls opts to include one of the above mentioned and he is lightly raced enough (8 starts under rules) to be open to large amounts of improvement still. He has been rated very highly at Ditcheat for a while now and it would be surprise to me if connections were quietly thinking of him as a potential successor to Denman. He would be my three figure interest in the Gold Cup at present. Sorry about the length of this chaps, got a bit carried away!!  |
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damn good post that,and a lot of good points
cheers Sir |
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Good post Sir Arry!
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Sir Arry
No need for apologies - I live for stuff like this! Still 5 months away and here we all are speculating and arguing, whittering away like a bunch of old women .....and I wouldn't want it any other way!! |
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sir arry.....6 posts in 15 months.....very much quality over quantity....nice one.
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Intersting and well reasoned post Arry - just a couple of observations.
Yes Long Run is only 6, but he's got a lot of races on the clock for his age. It isn't obvious which of those counteracting factors is more important. I think soft would play to Long Run's strengths looking at his French form. Also, you are right that horses that do well in the Hennessey shorten in the Gold Cup betting (and tend to be classy) - but they don't tend to do too well in the Gold Cup in the same year (excepting the great Demnan). Nicholls realy fancies 1833 for the Hennessey but imo he'd have any amount of improving to do to factor in the Gold Cup. |
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Definitely take your point about the Hennessy Strontium, in fact it has seemed in recent years to have acted as a very early pinnacle to various horse's careers (Strong Flow, Trabolgan) and form from it does not very often feature heavily in Gold Cups. In fact if i'm not mistaken I believe that bar Denman a Hennessy winner hasn't even been placed in one for at least 10 years? Aiteenthirtythree has loads of improvement to find agreed but he has only had a handful of starts and at the very least by winning or even going close in the Hennessy he would have proven that he can cut it in a big race which is a step in the right direction as he hasn't as yet done that.
I tend to take French going descriptions with a pinch of salt and base my opinions on form over here. Only for the reason that whenever I have taken an interest in any races over there the word 'soft' has always been in the going description so either they have a different perception of what constitutes 'soft' or 'heavy' or they are extremely sprinkler happy. Again just my own view, i'm not pretending to know a whole bunch about French racing it is rather more of a perception I have developed. If it's deep at Haydock in a few weeks time I will definitely be against him and Kauto if there is a classy old fashioned or Irish stayer brave enough to take them on. I must admit that when I saw the Gold Cup last year I couldn't see beyond a Long Run repeat, having been against the horse all year initially with some success in the PP. Even after his King George win I was totally against him for Cheltenham but after he cut down two of my favourite horses my emotions got the better of me and I was on the internet trying to find the nearest Freds so I could get some of the 5/1 they were offering! Thankfully I calmed down a bit and have had the much less enthralling (although sadly longer!) flat season to reassess! It's like when Tiger used to be a ridiculous price for all the Golf tournaments, you're never going to make money backing him for all of them and its always more fun trying to find someone to beat him. That said, if he were to once again go and win by 7 lengths I will be the first to put my hands up and say I got it completely wrong again. Still haven't got my dad to shut up telling me he told me so after I said he wouldn't even place in a Gold Cup if he couldn't win the Paddy Power off 158!  |
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What did you all make of the Charlie Hall today? Am I alone in thinking that TFR was just looking a bit tired by the end, but it certainly wouldn't put me off him come March? Had a tiny bit on Weird Al at 280s some time ago for the Gold Cup, but can't help thinking today was his moment in the sun....
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TFR one paced ... all the RSA or Gold Cup farce from connections well exposed today .... think he is a handicapper, at least it cuts similar crap from connections this season in the build up.
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The way TFR was dropped out the back in the RSA was bewildering after his better preps up with the pace dont think they have a clue with him tbh but turns out he aint up there with the best anyway ... anywhere near.
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I think he blew up - he looked burley before the race. This horse invariably needs his first run and did today. A stiffer tack IMo will help too.
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Agree that they don't seem to have worked out the best way of riding him, and although seems to prefer being up with the pace, taking on Nacarat all the way was never going to do him any favours. Think you may be a bit harsh on the horse overall, as didn't appear a bad first run out of novice company?
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Who would we say then are the top 5 Gold Cup prospects?
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Time for Rupert still a leading player IMO.
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Got to agree RC - think it's a wide open race, and wouldn't be surprised to see something thats a huge price now run in to a place
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Will be interested to see how quito de la roque and jessies dream each run this season, but heard some time ago that on the fringe was considered to be a gold cup horse by his trainer, who generally isn't one to be overly-bullish about his horses
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Agree R Carver too early to write TFR off. Don't think he got the best of rides today, took on and beat Nacarat but left nothing for the finish. Weird Al was given a really good ride by Timmy Murphy.
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Time For Rupert, whilst first impressions appear disappointing will surely improve for the run given how he looked before the race. Probably best to judge him on his next run before writing him off! Race lost a bit of interest when Diamond Harry pulled out but the form seems to look solid enough based on the 1st 4 home so it was a nice performance by the winner who to be fair remains unexposed as was having only his 9th start.
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yeh,i would not be too put off by that,sure he will improve for that,and needs to be judged after next 2 runs i think.Looked in real need of that yesterday.
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Far from being disappointed, I was impressed with Time For Rupert...assuming the Gold Cup is to be his number one target this season then that was a nice start to his campaign. First and foremost he appeared to be fit and well, his jumping was sound enough and he simply tired towards the end of the race, which on reflection was to be expected. He looked a bit heavy I thought, similar to how Master Minded looked last weekend, and im sure he'll come on an enormous amount for being given a fairly hard race.
It'll be interesting to see where he goes next...personally I would side step the Hennessey and carefully plan his route to the Festival in March where I'm convinced he'll be a major player. |
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Allegedly Betfair Chase next according to trainer?
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Betfir Chase is looking a cracker if they all turn up
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wouldnt say weird al was unexposed myself
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J N Wine Chase on Saturday also potentally a very good renewal.
Incidentally, 1833 (see Sir arry's posts above) is running in a 3-runner graduation chase at Kempton tomorrow. sommersby also running - just about sums him up for me that he's still eligible for graduation chases! |
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Time will only tell Strontium. My opinion is he has a lot more to offer, but I don't think we will see the best of him tomorrow. I do think a graduation chase is probably the best place to start him off though, no point running the risk of making a big dent in his confidence. He'll go off in front tomorrow, hopefully get some valuable experience jumping at pace and try and run the finish out of Somersby. Likelihood is he will be done for speed by a horse that was contesting top 2m chases last season but Somersby is yet to register a win over 2m4f in 3 attempts (each time by 9l or more) and a win of any kind since December 09 so it could be interesting. Either way he will no doubt have a good blow after and it should put him spot on for the Hennessy.
Down Royal looks a great race if the principals stand their ground. Bostons Angel and Quito De La Roque pitting themselves against last years Gold Cup 4th and 5th. Rubi Light is an interesting one also as he didn't stop improving last year and has Festival form to his name having ran a cracker in the Ryanair. Will he stay 3 miles though?  |
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Sorry Sir A - I meant it sums up Somersby (not 1833). I agree with you 1833 is still an unknown quantity though I don't really share your optimism. I'm also pretty sure tomorrow is just a tune up for the Hennessey for 1833.
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DWM,you are an absolute joker.Before the Gold cup this year you said anyone who thinks Long Run will win the Gold cup knows nothing about racing.Now you come on making half baked excuses for the field.He rode his luck with a fences and may need similar luck in the renewel,though if jumps clear again he wins again.I don't want to come over all Mayweatheresque but if your not already on at 5's and 4's you are a muppet.
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