Cheltenham Festival
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20 Mar 11
22:49
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06 Apr 03
for me it was hurricane fly , i really really didnt fancy it one little bit, but whata worthy winner he was.
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dunguib ..... should have known ground too quick!
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Toss up between Cue Card and Menorah - probably Menorah 'cos had a bit more on him.
Still think both are animals with considerable potential - particularly Cue Card over fences and further. I see some of the naysayers are doubting his heart for a battle - horse is still only 5 and has had half a dozen runs in his life. Probably the same people who were adamant Long Run did n't act around Cheltenham on similar limited evidence (I got that one right!). |
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I didn't rate Peddlers form and he was clearly misjudged by me.
I can't believe I didn't back Albertas Run. I've learnt my lesson that handicap form is not Grade 1 form, my mistake was backing Poquelin e/w @ 4/1 in the belief he was a bet to nothing. Correlated form. Cue Card was beat in the Supreme so Menorah's bula form was useless meant I backed Fly again at the track. Realt Dubh ran very well in the Arkle and it was a form boost for Noble Prince and Loosen My Load yet I backed neither. (Well Noble in a treble with Poq and Bucks) |
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Zarkander, can't believe I didn't back him. Was thinking during the day I'd back him for the Champion Hurdle pre Triumph and didn't.
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alberta's run for me as well.. got caught up in poquelin hype
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to be fair popequlin looked an each way cert on form.
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if you missed out on Albertas Run, you get another chance in the Melling Chase as long as we don't get too many early April showers!
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But the lesson learned is handicap form is not a good pointer to G1 winning form. Giving weight and a beating to poor horses is different to beating good horses off levels. Lesson learned.
I learn't 3 lessons last year. 1. Small bet or no bet in Supreme, don't go near short priced favs, Dunguib lesson was learnt. 2. Don't let your festival be ruined by two or three horses getting turned over, ie spread your bets. Dunguib and Go Native were hard losses early last year. 3. Take advantage of laying, for example I had 38/1 on 1833 and layed my stake back at 8/1 for a free 30/1 bet. Also in running lays worked spectacularly well on Zeb and Kauto who both traded odds on. I always put a lay for my stake at around evens now, and then some lays at odds on for profit. |
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Also having backed Blackstairmountain for the County hurdle when ruby picked Final Approach I should have covered on him. Also need to slightly reduce betting on the poor handicaps like Grand Annual, Pertemps, Martin Pipe (though I had the winner)
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CVB,lesson 2 defo learned.
What price did you get on Zark'? I think Back in focus 25/1 for WH could be very shrewed,what do you think? |
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I didn't back Zark, but I was thinking before the Triumph he's probably the only danger to Fly next year out of these novices as he could be anything. Yet I didn't back him.
He was 33's at the time, was 16's which had me thinking and then went 12's which is no way worth taking. |
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Back in focus might go chasing and needs soft ground so I'd avoid him.
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Albertas Run too. One of few thankfully!
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Alos thinking Hidden Universe would win the Supreme as he'd finally gotten his ground
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makes sense - agree particularly with the Supreme one, not least because it's the first race of the meeting so after Cue Card I was on the back foot and remained there for most of the first day.
I hardly play antepost CV and not at all in running (just frequent the forum to pick up insights from posters like your good self).I actually backed both Poquelin and Albertas Run on the day - not something I'd normally do in a Grade One but could not see a winner other than those two. Advocated AR at 12/1 AP but never backed him because he's so ground dependent - was about to g in at 10/1 NRNB, got sidetracked and by the time I checked again he was 7s mainly because Tranquil Sea was out I think. Lots of misjudgements really - gotta learn from them but there's not actually to many I'd beat myself up about - Cue Card, yes, because got sucked into the hype - form for Supreme is so limited, impossible to compare English form with Irish form and, this year also for the most part on different ground, no sense at all in having a big bet in that race. |
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I know he is supposed to need soft and at 25's for the RSA it is a gamble.Just think his hurdling is so impressive,he will get a season before chasing.Hope so,couldn't resist that price with Grand Crus bound to go chasing.
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I find that as horses race less and are better taken care of there are very few lost ap bets. I've also been very good / fortunate not to back horses for the wrong race.
Last year was just Hurricane Fly I can think of that hurt, Flat out this year but the moment I got the news on twitter about him I could still lay on betfiar as I;d backed him at 47. Also with betfair you can back your horses and lay them when their odds shorten to get free bets. While finally when bookies go nrnb I lay out of almost everything and move my bets to them. I layed out of binocular and Hurricane Fly for example to more to **** who had the refund if your horse is 2nd offer. |
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*** = b0yles
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He might stay hurdling but he is a point to point winner so they might just go straight over fences. Would be best find out what the plan is as his price won't contract I don't think.
You may be right though as the stayers division is so dominated by Big Bucks that getting 2nd to him is a lot easier and could be tempting. |
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Rease I write down my lessons. I have an excel spreadsheet where I keep track of all my bets, to keep track of my P&L. I have a another one for Cheltenham ap bets where I write down lessons learned at that years festival.
My bit of advice is that Irish horses are always available at huge prices antepost even in January after we've had our big Leopardstown Christmas meeting. So always good idea to back any Irish fancies around then, for example First Lieutenant was 20/1 in January. |
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Sizing Europe.
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Good point, defo need to make sure I forgive horses bad runs when they will get their ideal conditions at the festival.
Captain Chris, Sizing Europe, Albertas Run are the ones this year. |
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Prep far from ideal, messed around over 3 very different trips. Couldn't have him whatsoever, then puts in an incredible performance
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I put him in my acca mainly on the arkle stat, I was looking for 4 who would place. So lucky Oscars Well fell.
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biggest lesson i learned from last years festival and took it into all racing flat or jumps is if you think a horse will stay dont be put off by media or others stick by your own judgement untill you are proved wrong /right ..and also when looking at a horse sometimes you get suckered into looking at the negatives and you can ignore the positives , a few examples a long time ago i know tuichev made a bad bluder in a prep race b4 the arkle and media said no chance if he jumps like that at chelt ,but i looked at it if he jumped better at chelt he was a massive price .and long run also a classic case regards jumping and course .also the media love to hype certain horses up and some times you can get suckered in and ignore other horses . when a horse is massivly hyped there is always value elsewhere imo
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Not reversing my Spirits Son/Al Ferof sfc
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not laying off on menorah when cue card let the form down
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Underrating the Irish. Never again.
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Trying to be clever backing too many long-priced shots
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laying the 4th for a place in the pertemps (Knockara) & backing Querios Bleu e/w @ 50s 1,2,3,4 which finshed a head behind Knockara in 5th.
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Failure to make I/R lays on my AntePost Bets
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Al Ferof/Zaidpour
The former I thought was a slowboat who had no chance in the Supreme. Amazing how much these opinions are re-enforced when you backed a horse in a previous run and it then disappoints(Challow hrd). The latter I was to quick to forgive recent defeats that I put down to him racing on heavy ground. I was convinced he would improve for a sound surface but in reality there was no evidence to back this up. |
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Robinson Collonges. Didn't raise a gallop. Anyone hear if anything was wrong with him?
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had 2 each way doubles.
baby run/maljimar for non stop/zarkandar shoulda put the fallers together |
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Knight Pass - was very confident. The horse ran like a complete drain.
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nt layin off jessies dream 34's, finnians 14's, rock on ruby 38's wishfull thinking 20's loosen my load 18's, unaccompained 18's, mossley 28's and nt bking long run....... after i had a £200 double with him and cue card at the start of the season first time out at cheltenham. :(
Bking al ferof for 2m5 race and nt bking him in the first that hurt ALOT really nt the best start. and for having a big bet on him at start of the season at odds on when he fell 2 out:( thn goes and wins @10's :( Im still licking my wounds now :( |
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Not laying off Sam Winner and Pandorama when no rain hit Cheltenham Thursday evening.
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one thing reinforced to me was to always stick to your guns, all my mates were on Peddlers Cross for the champion while I was the sole believer in the Fly, must say I was not for changing my mind but they certainly tried to convince me otherwise, go with your gut! However in hindsight I was disappointed with how I played up my winnings, promised myself if Hurricane won I'd have a proper cut at Quevega but ended up putting on only 40% of what I was goin to have on, i think I have an aversion to backing odds on/even money shots at the festival which may have put me off but in reality she was prob a 4/6 shot given the opposition so it was probably a good value bet @ evens..live & learn
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It would be easier for me to list my accurate judgements...
In a shocking week I banked on Cue Card and Time For Rupert, thought Big Zeb was a cert and convinced myself this year's Irish challenge was very weak!! Ahem!! Sad thing is Cheltenain will probably come out and win his first two hurdle races impressive and i'll be loading up for next year's Supreme!! |