Cheltenham Festival
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All trends taken from the OLBG website
No trends for The Triumph on Friday
County Hurdle - Final Approach
10/10 had run at least four times that season - NO - TWICE
9/10 had an official rating between 128-144 - YES - 139
9/10 last outing was within thirty-six days - NO - 68
9/10 carried 11st 1lb or less - YES - 10st 12lb
9/10 ran between four and sixteen times over hurdles - YES - 4
9/10 returned an SP no bigger than 20/1
7/10 aged five or six - YES - 5
7/10 were making their first appearance at the Festival - YES
Albert Bartlett - Bobs Worth
6/6 won over 2m 4f or further - YES
6/6 had at least three runs over hurdles - YES - 3
5/6 had a top two finish in a Graded Hurdle last time out - YES
5/6 were in the first five in the betting - YES
5/6 were aged six or seven - YES - 6
4/6 had previously run over three miles - NO
Gold Cup - Long Run
10/10 had run between two and five times that season - YES - 2
10/10 were aged between seven and nine - NO - 6
10/10 started in the first three in the betting - YES
9/10 had won a Graded chase that season - YES
9/10 had run between six and fourteen times over fences - YES - 9
9/10 had won or been placed at a previous Festival - YES - 3rd RSA Chase
8/10 had an official rating of at least 166 - YES - 179
Foxhunters - Zemsky
10/10 won over at least three miles - YES
9/10 last ran between twelve and thirty-three days before this race - YES - 30
9/10 had previously won under Rules - YES
8/10 were aged ten or younger - YES - 8
8/10 had a top three finish last time out - YES - 1
7/10 started their careers in point to points - YES
No trends for The Martin Pipe
Grand Annual - Oiseau De Nuit
10/10 carried 10st 11lbs or less - NO - 11st 6lb
10/10 had no more than twelve races over fences - NO - 20
9/10 were rated 129-134 - NO - 145
9/10 were aged six to nine - YES - 9
9/10 were aged nine or under - YES
9/10 had won no more than one race that season - NO - NONE
8/10 had won over at least 2m 2f and other two were course winners - NO - Course winner YES
8/10 had run at the Cheltenham Festival before - YES
Verdict :Once again races had one or more trends busted. Suprisingly Zemsky met all the OLBG trends, unsurprisingly Oiseau didn't !
Overall : Trends including major 10/10 trends were busted in many races. However trends stayed strong overall. Therefore Making an allowance for one busted trend instead of dismissing horses en masse would have allowed a more accurate boundary for shortlisting purposes.
2011 was a fast ground meeting. Horses tended to do well who had decent flat form and in particular previous experience at Cheltenham and the Festival itself.
No trends for The Triumph on Friday
County Hurdle - Final Approach
10/10 had run at least four times that season - NO - TWICE
9/10 had an official rating between 128-144 - YES - 139
9/10 last outing was within thirty-six days - NO - 68
9/10 carried 11st 1lb or less - YES - 10st 12lb
9/10 ran between four and sixteen times over hurdles - YES - 4
9/10 returned an SP no bigger than 20/1
7/10 aged five or six - YES - 5
7/10 were making their first appearance at the Festival - YES
Albert Bartlett - Bobs Worth
6/6 won over 2m 4f or further - YES
6/6 had at least three runs over hurdles - YES - 3
5/6 had a top two finish in a Graded Hurdle last time out - YES
5/6 were in the first five in the betting - YES
5/6 were aged six or seven - YES - 6
4/6 had previously run over three miles - NO
Gold Cup - Long Run
10/10 had run between two and five times that season - YES - 2
10/10 were aged between seven and nine - NO - 6
10/10 started in the first three in the betting - YES
9/10 had won a Graded chase that season - YES
9/10 had run between six and fourteen times over fences - YES - 9
9/10 had won or been placed at a previous Festival - YES - 3rd RSA Chase
8/10 had an official rating of at least 166 - YES - 179
Foxhunters - Zemsky
10/10 won over at least three miles - YES
9/10 last ran between twelve and thirty-three days before this race - YES - 30
9/10 had previously won under Rules - YES
8/10 were aged ten or younger - YES - 8
8/10 had a top three finish last time out - YES - 1
7/10 started their careers in point to points - YES
No trends for The Martin Pipe
Grand Annual - Oiseau De Nuit
10/10 carried 10st 11lbs or less - NO - 11st 6lb
10/10 had no more than twelve races over fences - NO - 20
9/10 were rated 129-134 - NO - 145
9/10 were aged six to nine - YES - 9
9/10 were aged nine or under - YES
9/10 had won no more than one race that season - NO - NONE
8/10 had won over at least 2m 2f and other two were course winners - NO - Course winner YES
8/10 had run at the Cheltenham Festival before - YES
Verdict :Once again races had one or more trends busted. Suprisingly Zemsky met all the OLBG trends, unsurprisingly Oiseau didn't !
Overall : Trends including major 10/10 trends were busted in many races. However trends stayed strong overall. Therefore Making an allowance for one busted trend instead of dismissing horses en masse would have allowed a more accurate boundary for shortlisting purposes.
2011 was a fast ground meeting. Horses tended to do well who had decent flat form and in particular previous experience at Cheltenham and the Festival itself.
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did many horses meet all trends in the foxhunters?
zemsky looks a nice pick in hindsight, may not have helped if 15 horses met all trends though  |