Cheltenham Festival
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All trends taken from the OLBG site :
No trends for the Jewson on Thursday
Pertemps - Buena Vista
10/10 aged six to nine - NO - aged 10
10/10 won at Class three or higher - YES
10/10 had an official rating of no higher than 148 - YES - 138
10/10 off the track between 20 and 48 days - NO - 61
9/10 carried no more than 11-2 to victory - YES - 10st 8lb
7/10 had six to fifteen runs over hurdles (no winner had more than twenty-five hurdle runs) - NO - 29 hurdle runs
7/10 had won over at least three miles - YES
Ryanair - Albertas Run
6/6 had previous winning form at Cheltenham - YES
6/6 had no more than four runs since October - YES - 3
6/6 had an official rating of at least 152 - YES - 166
5/6 had a top three finish last time out - NO - Pulled Up
5/6 had placed in either the Paddy Power or the December Gold Cup - NO5/6 came from the first three in the betting market - YES
5/6 had winning form at 2m 5f or above - YES
4/6 had run at least eleven times over fences - YES - 21
World Hurdle- Big Bucks
10/10 returned an SP of 8/1 or less - YES
10/10 finished first or second on all hurdle starts that season - YES
10/10 had no more than four runs since August of that season - YES - two
9/10 were aged six to eight - YES - 8
9/10 had between eight and twenty runs over hurdles - NO - 23
9/10 had won a Graded hurdle - YES
9/10 had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival - YES
Byrne Group Plate - Holmwood Legend
10/10 had won at Class Three or higher - YES
10/10 had run within the last forty days - YES - 5 days
9/10 recorded a top five finish in their most recent race - YES - 1st
9/10 had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival - NO (but had Cheltenham form - 5th)
9/10 had between three and fifteen runs over fences - YES - 12
8/10 carried 10st 9lb or less - YES - 10st 9lb
8/10 had an official rating of 128-139 - YES - 130
8/10 aged between six and nine - NO - 10
Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir - Junior
10/10 aged seven to ten - YES - 8
10/10 ran over at least three miles last time out - YES - 3m
9/10 had won a handicap chase - NO - (but placed)
9/10 won over at least three miles - YES
9/10 had a maximum of nineteen races over fences - YES - 6
8/10 finished in first three of either or both of last two starts - YES - both
Verdict : Pertemps the worst affected with two 10/10 trends gone. Big Bucks seems to be setting his own trends. The trends stayed strong in all the races but agained proved that the one with the 'best trends' doesn't always win the races and it's the general profile of the horse that's the right way to go. It should not be 'if they haven't done this then they are eliminated immediately'. Allowances must be made (but as it consistently appears that should only be a couple)
No trends for the Jewson on Thursday
Pertemps - Buena Vista
10/10 aged six to nine - NO - aged 10
10/10 won at Class three or higher - YES
10/10 had an official rating of no higher than 148 - YES - 138
10/10 off the track between 20 and 48 days - NO - 61
9/10 carried no more than 11-2 to victory - YES - 10st 8lb
7/10 had six to fifteen runs over hurdles (no winner had more than twenty-five hurdle runs) - NO - 29 hurdle runs
7/10 had won over at least three miles - YES
Ryanair - Albertas Run
6/6 had previous winning form at Cheltenham - YES
6/6 had no more than four runs since October - YES - 3
6/6 had an official rating of at least 152 - YES - 166
5/6 had a top three finish last time out - NO - Pulled Up
5/6 had placed in either the Paddy Power or the December Gold Cup - NO5/6 came from the first three in the betting market - YES
5/6 had winning form at 2m 5f or above - YES
4/6 had run at least eleven times over fences - YES - 21
World Hurdle- Big Bucks
10/10 returned an SP of 8/1 or less - YES
10/10 finished first or second on all hurdle starts that season - YES
10/10 had no more than four runs since August of that season - YES - two
9/10 were aged six to eight - YES - 8
9/10 had between eight and twenty runs over hurdles - NO - 23
9/10 had won a Graded hurdle - YES
9/10 had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival - YES
Byrne Group Plate - Holmwood Legend
10/10 had won at Class Three or higher - YES
10/10 had run within the last forty days - YES - 5 days
9/10 recorded a top five finish in their most recent race - YES - 1st
9/10 had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival - NO (but had Cheltenham form - 5th)
9/10 had between three and fifteen runs over fences - YES - 12
8/10 carried 10st 9lb or less - YES - 10st 9lb
8/10 had an official rating of 128-139 - YES - 130
8/10 aged between six and nine - NO - 10
Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir - Junior
10/10 aged seven to ten - YES - 8
10/10 ran over at least three miles last time out - YES - 3m
9/10 had won a handicap chase - NO - (but placed)
9/10 won over at least three miles - YES
9/10 had a maximum of nineteen races over fences - YES - 6
8/10 finished in first three of either or both of last two starts - YES - both
Verdict : Pertemps the worst affected with two 10/10 trends gone. Big Bucks seems to be setting his own trends. The trends stayed strong in all the races but agained proved that the one with the 'best trends' doesn't always win the races and it's the general profile of the horse that's the right way to go. It should not be 'if they haven't done this then they are eliminated immediately'. Allowances must be made (but as it consistently appears that should only be a couple)
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