Cheltenham Festival
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1, can't win 3 regaining it twice
2. other hosses- at least two ought to beat him
once in a lifetime chance to lay a great horse happy he really cant win unless is really an extra terrestial.
3. sentiment keeps him too short.
Reasons why shouldn't lay for every penny invited.
1. freakish results: eg IC falls, LR ditto etc.
2. other hosses- at least two ought to beat him
once in a lifetime chance to lay a great horse happy he really cant win unless is really an extra terrestial.
3. sentiment keeps him too short.
Reasons why shouldn't lay for every penny invited.
1. freakish results: eg IC falls, LR ditto etc.
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he;s not a 6/4 chance though is he, he'll be 5-6/1.
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Reasons for not laying Kauto Star:
1. He is Kauto Star |
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I reckon will be shorter like MM today whose price tumbled -even though you could doubt his recent form. i reckon will go of at around 4s.
Did well to win one GC let alone 2 though a well Denman ridden to win not for caution would have beaten him for the second- i guess. For me , 3GC over that many years is beyond rational belief. He'd have to be Pegasus (and damn nearly was). Is a once in a lifetime horse probably but i cant find any convincing reasons why he'd win third time over what is not his best distance against viable competition. Admittedly laying in the range of 6s isnt the work of an inspired betting genius but does seem to represent value , even at that pt cos surely he can't confound probablity one more time?!! |
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agreed he cant win, but then don't think denman or imperial commander can either. my gut feeling tells me we'll see a new winner, and with rain predicted on friday pandorama becomes interesting.
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I will bawl like a baby if Denman can manage to win, big ask, but he's my favourite horse ever
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Maybe Denman or IC wont win but I still cant see Kauto finishing in front of them without mishap.I can see the same senario as last year where he is taken out of his comfort zone and will clout the odd fence leaving him to struggle and I hope Ruby's not too heavy handed with him.
Surely it would have been the best option to bypass this race and go to Aintree where the pickings would have been a lot easier. Hope he comes back safe |
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denman an equally unlikely winner; can see a stroner case for IC but he has had soon little racing that it is a worry- that said- IC must be in first three and prob top two.
agree pandorama is excellent value if it is any wetter- but i will be backing midnight chase probably as an e.w on the day - a first rate record at cheltenham , runs on all ground; improving; sire's brother a legend- right trip, appears improving etc put him in another yard and he'd be 2 pts shorter... will neptune collenges annoy him early on? possibly. of the others, dont think Lr is good enough but has scope for improvement so wont oppose; NC is he suddenly good enough to win a GC? Wouldnt say so and needs rain also imo.if it wet enough for NC to run to good form, then Pandorama should beat him. Roll on Friday... |
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Twister was very bullish about IC when he had the press at his yard a couple of weeks ago.He was also very bullish about Kyber Kim who ran poorly to say the least in The Champion Hurdle.I have sincere reservations about IC turning up in tip top form.Pando must come into calculations if he gets his ground but if the rains don't arrive the trainer states he won't run
If long run jumps like he did at Kempton a live contender Tidal Bay may run into a place up the hill.Will Kempes stay?Is Midnight Chase good enough?Is Kauto too old? So many ifs and buts so Im sticking with the tried and trusted Denman.Hopefully the wind operation has helped, will jump and stay, and has a good a chance as anything else. |
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because i wouldn't want to atch the race wanting him to lose
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well said gold
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Agreed and anyway if he gets into his rhtyhm nobody's heart on the planet who had their worldly belonging on him losing could survive the heart attack.
Kauto Star is a law unto himself and no matter what you think as a punter he does not need to be at his best to win this race. Imperial Commander is being touted as the most likely winner but we saw him almost get caught by Tidal after a long rest. Khyber Kim would hardly indicate NTD has got it right either. Denman is Denman and he's defnitely slower than he was, is unlikely to win unless others fall by the wayside. Long Run can be so dumb at times he could walk right into a fence and be stuck there for the rest of the meeting. Pandorama is the one horse you can trust to run his race if there is any sort of cut in the ground. If he runs. As far as I can see you are suggesting laying the best chaser to grace a racecourse in 40 years in the hope Father Time has indeed caught up with him. There's a name for that it's called madness. |
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sentiment has its place but not probably when judging betting strategy imo.Watching the race today I'll enjoy it as a spectacle if he wins- though not from a financial point of view. I'd say he is still quite close to his best but not at it- and is therefore beatable and therefore layable like masterminded the other day. It isnt a black swan event if he loses- he has before after all - and at the distance- two gold cups notwithstanding- he remains vulnerable to a horse who sees it out better ( i can hear the headshaking from here!)
Lets hope its a great race with a worthy winner and they all come home.  |
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You can't pick holes in Imperial Commanders Cheltenham form. He also goes fresh. What more could anyone ask for.
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A smidgeon of stable form
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Twiston-Davies 2 for 30 in recent years with horses coming back in March from 3 months or more lay-off. The Commander obviously goes well fresh and loves Cheltenham, but I'd rather lay at the price.
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