Cheltenham Wednesday 2011 - busted trends

Trends taken from OLBG:

N.H Chase - Chicago Grey

10/10 had ran at least three times over fences - YES - 9
10/10 had finished first or second in a chase over at least three miles - YES
9/10 had finished in the first four last time out (25 of the last 27 winners met this stat) - NO - was 5th
8/10 were aged seven or eight - YES - 8
8/10 had won over at least 3miles (hurdles or fences) - YES
7/10 had no more than five races over fences - NO - 9


Neptune Investment - First Lieutenant

10/10 were aged five or six - YES - 6
9/10 finished first or second last time out - YES - 1st
9/10 started in the first six in the betting - YES
9/10 had won at least 50% of all their hurdle runs - YES - 4131
9/10 had already won over at least 2m 4f over hurdles - YES
9/10 finished first or second on all completed starts over hurdles - NO - 4th in his first hurdle run
8/10 had contested pattern races - YES
8/10 started career in Irish point-to-points or bumpers - YES


RSA Chase - Bostons Angel

10/10 finished 1st or 2nd last time out - YES - 1st
10/10 ran at least three times over fences - YES - 5
10/10 did not run on the flat - YES
9/10 last ran between 24 and 53 days ago - YES - 32
9/10 were aged seven or eight (8/10 were aged seven!) - YES - 7
9/10 had nine to twelve total runs in hurdles and chases - YES - 11
8/10 raced prominently - YES (Sort of) - tracked leaders, went prominent 15th


Queen Mother - Sizing Europe

10/10 won on their latest completed start - NO - 3rd
10/10 had run no more than four times that season - YES - 3
10/10 had run at least eight times over fences - YES - 9
10/10 had won at least one race that season - NO - record was 233
10/10 had won over at least 2m 1.5f - YES
9/10 were aged under ten-years-old - YES - 9
8/10 returned an SP of no bigger than 5/1 - NO - 10/1
8/10 had previously competed at a previous Festival - YES


Coral Cup - Carlito Brigante

10/10 had an official rating of 147 or lower - YES - 140
10/10 had won between 2m 2f and 2m 6f over hurdles - NO
9/10 had won a race earlier in the season - YES
9/10 had scored at class three or higher - YES
8/10 winners carried no more than 11st - YES
8/10 had no more than nine runs over hurdles - YES - 9
7/10 were aged six or seven - NO - 5
7/10 had not run for at least 39 days - YES - 46
7/10 had no more than four runs that season - YES - BUT NO if the flat is included in the same timespan


Fred Winter - What A Charm

6/6 did not win until their third start over hurdles or later - NO - had not won a hurdle
6/6 were rated between 124 and 133 - NO - rated 115
6/6 were by a Group One winning sire on the flat - NO - Sire won a G3 and was 2nd in a G1
5/6 won last time out - NO - was 7th LTO
5/6 were set to carry a weight of at least 11-2 - NO - carried 10st 6lb
4/6 were won by French bred horses - NO


Champion Bumper - Cheltenian

10/10 had won a bumper with at least thirteen runners - YES
9/10 were last time out winners (that stat covers sixteen of the eighteen winners of the Champion Bumper) - YES
9/10 were aged five or six - YES - 5
8/10 were bred in Ireland (Only one French bred has ever been placed!) - NO - French bred !
8/10 were trained in Ireland (and fourteen of all the eighteen winners of this race!) - NO
7/10 won a bumper worth at least 4k (pounds or euros) to the winner - NO 7/10 were off the track for at least 32 days - YES - 33


Verdict : RSA looks strong but the Fred Winter looks weak and I wonder if there's a 'decent flat horse' trend to be followed next year as possibly that's what the 'G1 Flat sire' trend was indicating and now we have a decent flat horse actually winning it. A couple of 10/10 Queen Mother trends broken and it wasn't any real surprise that the Irish trained trend went in The Bumper.