Cheltenham Festival
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All trends taken from the OLBG site
Supreme - Al Ferof
10/10 had won at least (not less than) 50% of their hurdle starts - YES - 50% - F311
10/10 had run within the last 45 days - YES - 31
8/10 won last time out - YES
8/10 were aged five or six - YES - 6yo
7/10 were trained in Ireland - NO - P.Nicholls
1 lesser trend broken
The Arkle - Captain Chris
10/10 returned an SP no bigger than 9/1- YES - 6/1
10/10 had no more than five races over fences - YES - 4
9/10 finished in first two in all completed starts over fences - YES - 2221
9/10 rated at least 142 over hurdles - YES - 146
8/10 were aged between five and seven (only two winners aged eight or over since 1960!) - YES - 7
8/10 had final prep race within 52 days of the Festival - YES - 17
8/10 finished in first two last time out - YES - 1st
All trends are good
Spinal Research - Bensalem
10/10 carried no more than 10st 12lb - NO - 11st 2lb
10/10 were rated 127-143 - YES - 143
10/10 were aged seven to ten - YES - 8
9/10 had a top three finish last time out - YES - 2nd
8/10 had no more than eleven starts over fences - YES - 5
8/10 ran no more than four times that season - YES - 2
8/10 came from first four in betting - YES - 5/1 2nd fave
1 major trend broken
Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly
10/10 had previously finished at least fourth at the Cheltenham Festival with seven out of ten previous winners at the Festival - NO - had never run at Cheltenham
10/10 had final prep run within 51 days of Festival - YES - 51 days
9/10 had won at least one race that season - YES
9/10 were aged six to nine - YES - 7
9/10 had between ten and twenty-five runs over hurdles - YES - 11
9/10 had won a Grade 1 hurdle or a Grade 3 handicap hurdle - YES
8/10 had won last time out - YES
1 major trend broken
Cross Country - Sizing Australia
6/6 were trained in Ireland (and 18 of the last 20 placed horses!) - YES
6/6 won over at least three miles - NO - 22f furthest
5/6 had previously won a cross country race - NO
5/6 had won one of its last two starts - NO - 8th and 3rd
5/6 finished either first or second on their last outing - NO - 8th
5/6 aged in double figures - NO - Aged 9
4/6 carried no more than 10st 13lbs - YES - 10st 9lb
Lots of trends busted in this one
Mares only
No trends available at the site
Centenary Novices - Divers
6/6 carried a weight of 11-0 or under - NO - but none of the field did
6/6 finished in the top four on all their completed starts over fences - YES - record is 3151
6/6 were officially rated 123-139 - YES - 133
6/6 were aged five to eight - YES - 7
6/6 finished either first or second on their last outing - YES - 1st
6/6 had won only once over fences - NO - had won twice
Just one failed trend
Verdict on Cheltenham Tuesday
The trends are solid overall but allowances even for 10/10 trends should be made, i.e they are not to be discounted altogether if one 10/10 is broken.
6/7 of the races should of provided decent results for trends backers
Supreme - Al Ferof
10/10 had won at least (not less than) 50% of their hurdle starts - YES - 50% - F311
10/10 had run within the last 45 days - YES - 31
8/10 won last time out - YES
8/10 were aged five or six - YES - 6yo
7/10 were trained in Ireland - NO - P.Nicholls
1 lesser trend broken
The Arkle - Captain Chris
10/10 returned an SP no bigger than 9/1- YES - 6/1
10/10 had no more than five races over fences - YES - 4
9/10 finished in first two in all completed starts over fences - YES - 2221
9/10 rated at least 142 over hurdles - YES - 146
8/10 were aged between five and seven (only two winners aged eight or over since 1960!) - YES - 7
8/10 had final prep race within 52 days of the Festival - YES - 17
8/10 finished in first two last time out - YES - 1st
All trends are good
Spinal Research - Bensalem
10/10 carried no more than 10st 12lb - NO - 11st 2lb
10/10 were rated 127-143 - YES - 143
10/10 were aged seven to ten - YES - 8
9/10 had a top three finish last time out - YES - 2nd
8/10 had no more than eleven starts over fences - YES - 5
8/10 ran no more than four times that season - YES - 2
8/10 came from first four in betting - YES - 5/1 2nd fave
1 major trend broken
Champion Hurdle - Hurricane Fly
10/10 had previously finished at least fourth at the Cheltenham Festival with seven out of ten previous winners at the Festival - NO - had never run at Cheltenham
10/10 had final prep run within 51 days of Festival - YES - 51 days
9/10 had won at least one race that season - YES
9/10 were aged six to nine - YES - 7
9/10 had between ten and twenty-five runs over hurdles - YES - 11
9/10 had won a Grade 1 hurdle or a Grade 3 handicap hurdle - YES
8/10 had won last time out - YES
1 major trend broken
Cross Country - Sizing Australia
6/6 were trained in Ireland (and 18 of the last 20 placed horses!) - YES
6/6 won over at least three miles - NO - 22f furthest
5/6 had previously won a cross country race - NO
5/6 had won one of its last two starts - NO - 8th and 3rd
5/6 finished either first or second on their last outing - NO - 8th
5/6 aged in double figures - NO - Aged 9
4/6 carried no more than 10st 13lbs - YES - 10st 9lb
Lots of trends busted in this one
Mares only
No trends available at the site
Centenary Novices - Divers
6/6 carried a weight of 11-0 or under - NO - but none of the field did
6/6 finished in the top four on all their completed starts over fences - YES - record is 3151
6/6 were officially rated 123-139 - YES - 133
6/6 were aged five to eight - YES - 7
6/6 finished either first or second on their last outing - YES - 1st
6/6 had won only once over fences - NO - had won twice
Just one failed trend
Verdict on Cheltenham Tuesday
The trends are solid overall but allowances even for 10/10 trends should be made, i.e they are not to be discounted altogether if one 10/10 is broken.
6/7 of the races should of provided decent results for trends backers
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Replies: 3
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Thanks for that. Was about to do something similar myself. To be honest, I don't really see the CC as much of a 'trends' race if that makes any sense.
They are certainly good to use as guidance and to whittle down a field but as you correctly say, allowances have to be made, even for the 10/10 trends. |
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Yes, i'm not sure about two 10/10 trends though. Certainly on the evidence from today making allowances for two 10/10 being busted would of been wrong. I thought more of the lesser trends would be busted to be honest but they've stayed strong on the whole. It'll be interesting to see how they fair on Wednesday.
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I'm also not sure how much the centenary trends are worth now the race conditions have changed so much - yesterday it was a very limited handicap.
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