Day One Analysis

An excellent write up I lifted from thebettingboards .com - some interesting stuff:



Four days of madness starts here. Really looking forward to today's racing, the cards over all four days look top notch.

1.30 Cheltenham - The Supreme Novices Hurdle - Hidden Universe each-way @ 18/1

Cue Card has the best form coming into this race and is priced accordingly, the bookies are taking him on for the same reason I am. His head carriage when Menorah raced past him was not the best, and he didn't look the strongest up the hill, Silvianico Conti made up plenty of ground on him. He is beatable and that's why bookmakers are falling over themselves to lay him. Spirit Son is next in the market. Barry Geraghty couldn't make his mind up between Spirit Son and Sprinter Sacre, which suggests to me that there isn't a whole lot between them - interesting given there was 29lb between the RPR's they posted last time out. Again I think both are beatable and are short in the market. Al Ferof doesn't appeal to me at all, he won a joke race at Newbury last time and I see nothing that makes me think he is the best of the novices. Recession Proof boasts some damn good form but the ground might be too lively for him.

Hidden Universe sticks out a mile for me. He is flat bred, being by Linamix out of a Woodman mare. Good ground is exactly what he wants and he showed that by winning a Grade 1 bumper fairly easy at Punchestown last spring. He has impressed over hurdles and anyone can see he was completely unsuited by heavy ground at Leopardstown last time out, in the race won by Oscar's Well. It speaks volumes that the winner that day goes for the stayers event - it was ground suited to stayers. Hidden Universe will have no problem lying up with a strong pace and will gallop all the way to the line. The crucial factor will be how well Robbie McNamara can produce him at his hurdles - he is a decent young jockey and he gets my trust here. Flat breds do well in this contest, and of the last 10 winners 9 have had a U.S.A. influence in their breeding, a precondition the selection satisfies.

2.05 Cheltenham - The Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy - Realt Dubh to win, Captain Chris to win (advised @ 16/1 and 14/1 respectively ante post)

We've backed both of these ante post and we're sitting pretty. Realt Dubh brings solid Irish Grade 1 form, and has proved already that he will put his head down and battle where required. He has crept under the radar because his performances in victory have been unspectacular, but he has all the qualities you need from a Cheltenham horse - travels nicely, jumps well, battles and will stay on up the hill. I feel Philip Hobbs has made the right choice regarding Captain Chris. You need a horse who stays the trip for the Arkle and all Captain Chris's form suggests a strongly run two miles with a stiff finish will suffice. He looked an obvious choice for this race to my mind when he got so close to Medermit, and the price discrepancy between the two is still too big. He wouldn't want the ground too firm, but he represents a stable and jockey with proper Cheltenham festival records and only needs to reproduce his penultimate run to be bang there at the finish. Finnian's Rainbow is a joke price in my view, he has beaten very little and I can't see why he is so short. He jumped appallingly last time and may not have beaten the ill-fated Kilmurry. I think our selections are the spring horses and the danger is Medermit.

2.40 Cheltenham - The Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase - Sunnyhillboy each-way @ 6/1 (Bet 365, pays 5 places)

Looks like a cert to run his race, has very obviously been laid out for the race, and has a man possessed on board in the champion Tony McCoy. This tends to be won by a horse carrying less than eleven stone and off 10-12 the selection fulfils that criteria. It is also pretty clear that a thorough stayer normally wins this, this son of Old Vic is unproven at the distance but has only had eight chase starts and shapes for all the world as if staying will be his game. He has won once and been placed twice in five starts at Cheltenham, and in a handicap lacking class, he could be the answer. His relatively "safe" profile dictates that an each-way play is probably best if you are going to get involved, especially given Bet 365's generous concession of paying five places.

3.15 Cheltenham - The Stan James Champion Hurdle - Menorah to win (advised @ 5/1 ante post), Dunguib to win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Menorah is blindingly obvious here, having won two key trials in the shape of the Greatwood off top weight, and the **** International. He is last year's Supreme Novices Hurdle winner and his form looks strong to me, franked recently by an excellent performance by Bothy in the Totesport Trophy. He already has three extremely strong pieces of Cheltenham form and he is fully entitled to go off favourite - I actually think he should have been favourite even with the inclusion of Binocular. Out 5/1 looks good now and Philip Hobbs has been there and bought the T-Shirt with Rooster Booster. Expect Menorah to be tuned to the second.


I think Menorah will outspeed Peddlars Cross, whose form looks patchy (beat Starluck and a fat Binocular in the Fighting Fifth). I don't like the way Hurricane Fly jumped to his right on occasion this season, and I don't see the return of Ruby Walsh as a positive despite the fact that he is one of the best of our time - Paul Townend is excellent and has developed a proper bond on the horse. Oscar Whisky represents a trainer who excels in this contest and his entry here merits respect. It is he, along with Dunguib, that I rate as the biggest dangers to Menorah. He might just get done for toe, but he will certainly stay on up the hill and an aggressive ride might see him end up in front where it matters. I would be delighted to see Dunguib win, his form is rock solid and he did nothing wrong here last year. He is quicker than Oscar Whisky, and turns up here a fresher horse than last year, which might just be a deciding factor. He has some truly exceptional form to his name and, if the breaks come his way, he might reverse the Supreme Novice form from last year. He just gets the call over Oscar Whisky as the second selection, at a value price of 9/1.

4.00 Cheltenham - The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase - Sizing Australia each-way @ 8/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed)

A tough race to call this year. Based on his course and distance record of 3203, a favourable handicap mark, and the assistance of a very talented young jockey in Andrew Lynch, Sizing Australia gets the vote. The "0" came in this race last year when he was hampered at a vital stage, costing him all chance. He has a really nice racing weight and is open to more progression than any of Enda Bolger's horses. 8/1 looks like excellent each-way value with four places being paid providing all sixteen line up.


4.40 Cheltenham - The David Nicholson Mares Hurdle - Silver Gypsy to win @ 33/1, and each-way "without quevega" @ 20/1 (Paddy Power)

Bookmakers are trying to take Quevega on in general, and they'd be mad not to - backing even money shots is not the way to get rich at Cheltenham. There is a little value around, and Silver Gypsy, who represents a small unfashionable stable, might be able to take advantage if the favourite fails to fire. She is very progressive, and is closely matched with L'Accordioniste on a piece of form at Uttoxeter last winter (pair well clear). It looked to me like she got bogged down in bad ground last time out, when only 3 1/4 lengths behind Banjaxed Girl (also reopposes, generally 12/1). I fancy she can turn around form with both those rivals and shake up the favourite if she improves for the better ground here, and at around 45/1 on Betfair and 33/1 in the shops, she is good value. We will also back her in the markets without Quevega, she is generally 20/1 which is also far too big.

5.20 Cheltenham - The Centenery Novices Handicap Chase - Premier Sagas each-way @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

One of the poorest festival handicaps I've seen in terms of future talent. Premier Sagas sticks out on the rating he has posted recently and he had them all making mistakes early on at Kelso last time. He is probably a bit better than his mark but will have to overcome his trainer's 0-19 record at Cheltenham in the past five seasons if he is to land the spoils. However, the horse doesn't know that and he jumped well enough over a shorter trip last time to suggest he will handle the hustle and strong pace of a festival handicap. Not one to go nuts on but value nonetheless. Is a significantly bigger price on Betfair, so make sure you get a guaranteed price as always.