14:40 - Festival Handicap......

Really fancy Bensalem for this, impressed with hurdles runs since comeback, travelled well. Better ground will suit, fair price, despite the probablility of clouting a few,

Wolf Moon ew at 16s.

Astonishing price I think as its bottom weight and one of only 3 horses to have won lto which is almost a must for cheltenham handicaps.

Reve De Sivola 9/1 - Classy horse, second to Peddlers Cross last year and finished in front of the subsequent Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite of Passage! Clearly a classy horse, Grade 1 winner over hurdles. Runs off a very nice mark of 140 and should appreciate the ground. IF bouncing back to form. At the beginning of the year, i had this one down as winning the Jewson, so off a mark of 140, i have to back him now, so maybe i'm following the heart a little?

King Fontaine 33/1 - Put a line through his last race over 3m4f on Heavy ground. Pulled Up. Don't usually back horses that were pulled up on their previous run before the festival, but he has won 6 of 13 races, running up a four-timer before being pulled up. 33/1 with Graham Lee on board offers a bit of value.

Sunnyhillboy 6/1 - Looks laid out for this race and a solid 2nd at the festival last year and 3rd to Poquelin in the (****) Vote A.P. Gold Cup looks solid form.


I would LAY Bensalem in running, he travelled like the winner in his last race, he led on the bit before finding little under pressure in the heavy ground. He also travelled strongly behind the leaders when 5th behind Grand Crus and it appeared that those two would fight out the finish, before he again found little and faded. Granted Grand Crus was a class above the rest and powered away. Having just watched last years William Hill trophy again he was travelling strongly, but a number of them were still in contention and travelling, the Scottish National winner Cheif Dan George stayed on well up the hill from a fast finishing The Package. I think he's a fair favourite, but has been over-rated for his fall last year and his run exageratted. He doesn't quite seem to finish his races? I could be wrong and eat my words tomorrow, but good luck either way.

Wallis - bottom weight and still out of the handicap - might be lacking the class to win and 16/1 short in these circumstances?

Understand the case for Razor, but been a long way out of form and struggled in this race last year.

sorry misread that. yeah is pw

To be honest Flagship , I take the boring stats routes on the handicaps and they tend to be quite a good pointer. I dont have the 2011 edition of Paul Jones book but 2010s said..

6 out of last 8 winners won lto. (left only 3 horses!)
Ignore 11 year olds and rated over 150 (left only Wolf Moon)

Quickest amount of time its ever taken me to work out a Cheltenham handicap and got a good price as well.

On a serious note , Keighley is in icredible form. His last runners are PU-1-2-2-2-3-9-3-1-F-5-10-1-1-1
Thats 5 winners from 15 and 3 runners up. Scudamore booked off 10 stone. Ran six times at Cheltenham so no problems with the course and has won twice there already.

I dont know if it is , but when RMB put up the smiley face under mintys post I assumed it was.

If you ignore the "must win LTO" , I had Adams Island and Bensalem in my final five along with Sunny and Razor Royale I think.

Great minds think alike, or fools never differ?

I didn't bother looking at Wolf Moon, assumed it wouldn't get in so we had the same 4!

Would not be surprised to see Carole's Legacy a Pricewise selection - my mate who is a good judge suggested I should take a look. No problem with CDG but I would prefer if it was a hurdles race.

Have you looked through the final race of the day?

Tullamore, Swing Bill, American Trilogy (can never forget it winning over hurdles at the festival) and Vino Griego for me. Nicholls other one has to be a threat too.

I was looking through the last race on the weekend and I thought American Trilogy was interesting and might have been a plot horse , but Nicholls put up Definity as his handicap bet of the week at Sandown.  The last few runs of AT look really suspicious , they kept sending him right handed at Kempton and it was crazy as the horse hated it.

I think I will still do trilogy but I need to find my notes on that race and see what came out. I will put them up on here once I find them !

Cheers Wallis

Looks a good race - Tullamore ran well at Festival last year, which I like and Medermit form could look really good after the Arkle.

Tullamore is a gd bet without medermit going in. i reckon another pw bet tomorrow