I remember last year, my main fancy, go native fell foul of this stat that says horses running in the champion hurdle, that have not had a run in same the calendar year, have a very poor record in the race.
I was unwise to dismiss it then and I think people would be unwise to dismiss it now. Ok training methods have improved to the point where you can pretty much get a horse match fit at home, but when I watched a video of menorah schooling on the racing post website, he looked ring rusty to say the least.
Added to that theres the terrible record of supreme novice hurdle winners, and it puts a huge question mark against menorah, does it not?