Spinal Research Handicap Chase

I think some people reckon Sunnyhillboy is a bit of a plot horse, although has never won further than 2m5 it is always staying on and seems to have been laid out for this

Think Wolf Moon is massive at 25s

Think the winner will come from the top four in the betting. Reve De Sivola's a horse i like but another unproven at the trip and Bensalem hasn't raced over fences since this race last year, i seem to be going round in circles!

Great Endeavour

If the step up in trip helps Reve De Sivolas jumping, then i think hes chucked in off 140.

it's a big if though, wish they'd tried 3miles earlier

I'd agree he's got potential to rate 160 plus but you'll probably know your fate early. If he's jumping after 4 or 5 fences he should take the beating but no hiding place here and his jumping has failed in far lesser races.

I like the e/w chances of King Fontaine very much. Pulled up LTO but can be forgiven on very heavy ground. Prior to that, had won his previous 4. Hasn't gone at Chelt before but is extremely well handicapped and matches quite a few trends for previous winners e.g. aged between 7 and 10, carrying less than 11 stone. Great pilot in G Lee too.

25's represent a decent price IMO.

This is the most difficult day on day one and a one where trends don't match up with form that well.  The three main trends are :

10/10 carried no more than 10st 12lb
10/10 were rated 127-143
10/10 were aged seven to ten

This basically leaves:

Sunnyhillboy
Razor Royale
Slippers Percy
Adams Island
The Rainbow Hunter
Carrickmines
No Panic

If you're going against them then you're going against 3 x 10/10 trends.  On a personal note I think one (but I doubt two) of those 10/10 trends may fall this time. Therefore if we assume one of those might be busted then we can look at the other horses and check the lesser trends records

Lesser trends :

9/10 had a top three finish last time out
8/10 had no more than eleven starts over fences
8/10 ran no more than four times that season
8/10 came from first four in betting (can only be guesstimated at the moment)

Horses that meet 2/3 of the main trends and their lesser trends record :

Bensalem - 2/3 main, 4/4 lesser
Wolf Moon - 2/3 main, 3/4 lesser (will meet 4/4 if backed in to the top 4)

Therefore if we add those two to the list we now have :

Sunnyhillboy
Razor Royale
Slippers Percy
Adams Island
The Rainbow Hunter
Carrickmines
No Panic
Bensalem
Wolf Moon

I doubt all the lesser trends will be broken or even 3/4 therefore I feel it's safe to eliminate any horse from the shortlist who doesn't meet 2/4 of the lesser trends. This eliminates:

No Panic
Razor Royale
Carrickmines

Of the 6 that are left I think this leaves a final shortlist where form can be analysed

Sunnyhillboy
Slippers Percy
Adams Island
The Rainbow Hunter
Bensalem
Wolf Moon

Sunnyhillboy - the best trends profile in the race but his lack of a run over the distance is seriously worrying.  He could be a 'plot' horse but I doubt it and all three of his chase runs here have ended in defeat (although he did win a 17f Class 3 hurdle back in 2008). He's been running in better class races than this though and this may well be a level he's competitive at.

Slippers Percy - 5 runs over fences with just the one win. Probably needs it softer although did place in a maiden hurdle. Well beaten in similar/ slightly better grades last two runs

Adams Island - 6 runs over fences with 2 wins in the class (one of them on good over 3m). Distance and likely decent ground should prove no problem therefore.  He looked to handle the undulations at Exeter ok when a 5l 3rd to Wymott in December but has no form at Cheltenham

The Rainbow Hunter - 1 win from 5 chases but none in the 4 Class 3's he has attempted (although placed 3 times and 4th the other). Distance and going seem to be no problem but probably wouldn't want it any quicker than gd/sft. No form at Cheltenham and was caught up the hill at Sandown LTO.


Bensalem - his last 3 runs have been over hurdles and include a 3l 3rd to Queveda and over jumps his 2l 2nd to Diamond Harry looks decent.  Has fallen here before though and that fall plus his last three runs being over hurdles is a concern to me.

Wolf Moon - Of the selected he's the only horse to win LTO. However that was in a class 4 and of the three times he's raced in a class 3 he's been beaten, including twice at Cheltenham (three at Cheltenham if you include his class 2 defeat). His trainer Martin Keighley is in good form though with 4 wins and 4 places from 14 runners in March. That said he's well out of the handicap and although his trainer will have him 'spot on' it's probably still too big a task for him.


Verdict

I think Slippers Percy can be eliminated on form and although Wolf Moon has plenty going for him he's still probably not up to the task.  This leaves

Sunnyhillboy
Adams Island
The Rainbow Hunter
Bensalem

I think there's two consistent horses here and that may prove to be the key to this race.  Bensalem will surely go close if he jumps o.k but as this is a Cheltenham Festival race I think he may be found out a little. Sunnyhillboy could be competitive but his lack of a distance win (especially here) has to be of a concern

That to me leaves two

Adams Island and The Rainbow Hunter.  I think both of these will enjoy the C,D and likely decent going. At the last I think Sunnyhillboy will be leading but tiring. Up the hill I think Sunnyhillboy will still be there but will struggle and will be overtaken by The Rainbow Hunter and Adams Island with Adams Island getting up at the finish.

Winner - Adams Island
2nd - The Rainbow Hunter
3rd - Sunnyhillboy

This'll break the lesser trends of


8/10 ran no more than four times that season
8/10 came from first four in betting (probably)

Edit to the above :

I've missed Kings Fontaine over the above shortlist

He meets 2/3 main trends and 2/4 lesser trends

Kings Fontaine

Distance and going no problem and was pulled up after a bad blunder LTO and possibly didn't like the heavy going either.  Has won in a slightly better/similar grade but no form at Cheltenham and both attempts at an uphill finish have resulted in defeat (Carlisle and Sandown). Looks to make a few mistakes but has still been strong enough to stay on his feet.  I think he may get caught out at Cheltenham but if he stays on his feet then he's an excellent each way chance.

Verdict : Faller or placed