Cheltenham Festival
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13 Mar 11
15:11
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Date Joined:
20 Sep 06
watched the cheltenham preview on here the other night, and anthony bromley said this was his lay of the meeting. said he jumped terribly
at warwick, and doesn't buy into the excuse offered by connections, that finians resented being held up. think's he'll clout fence after fence and struggle to get round.
while I respect his opinion, as he's clearly one of the most knowledgeable people in the game, this whole argument reminds me of tidal bay a few years back. that too had jumped poorly in it's race prior to the arkle, everyone expected it to finish on the deck at cheltenham itself, but on the big day itself barely touched a twig and breezed round for an easy victory.
quite simply, finians rainbow oozes class. he's the one, if there is a horse in this line up, who could be very special. medermit was undoubtably impressive last time but had a fairly hard race and the bounce factor comes into play. not to mention that it's 0-5 at cheltenham. at the prices put a line through it. ghizao has been winning soft ground contests over the winter and I don't get the impression from the nicholls camp that they ever considered him a star.
i'm really looking forward to seeing this exciting chaser finians rainbow on tuesday and i make him my day one banker.
at warwick, and doesn't buy into the excuse offered by connections, that finians resented being held up. think's he'll clout fence after fence and struggle to get round.
while I respect his opinion, as he's clearly one of the most knowledgeable people in the game, this whole argument reminds me of tidal bay a few years back. that too had jumped poorly in it's race prior to the arkle, everyone expected it to finish on the deck at cheltenham itself, but on the big day itself barely touched a twig and breezed round for an easy victory.
quite simply, finians rainbow oozes class. he's the one, if there is a horse in this line up, who could be very special. medermit was undoubtably impressive last time but had a fairly hard race and the bounce factor comes into play. not to mention that it's 0-5 at cheltenham. at the prices put a line through it. ghizao has been winning soft ground contests over the winter and I don't get the impression from the nicholls camp that they ever considered him a star.
i'm really looking forward to seeing this exciting chaser finians rainbow on tuesday and i make him my day one banker.
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Excellent point about Tidal Bay. I was far from impressed at Warwick and I think people's judgement was clouded just cos they had backed him, but one bad round doesnt mean you cant win.
My only concern would be he hasnt had to really get going in a race yet, also I think he was going really well in the Neptune but I thought he got unbalanced coming down the hill. That would be my concern I would like to of seen him back at the track, cant wait |
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Lets hope the Henderson vets have been kept away from him!
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Medermit 0-5 at Cheltanham
However he was 2nd in a Supreme flying home to just fail behind Go Native. In that race he finished in front of Somersby who is a leading fancy for the Champion Chase. He then ran 3rd in the Greatwood Hurdle off top weight beaten just 3L by Kyber Kim giving him 3lbs. He then finished 3rd in the International again behind Kyber Kim and Celestial Halo. Next race at Cheltenham was the Champion Hurdle where he was well beaten. Then he ran a fine race in the Dipper over fences when he travelled like the winner and was probably just outstayed by the winner Hells Bay where they finished a mile clear of the 3rd. He may not be a good price in your opinion but i wouldn't use the 0-5 at the course against him as he has ran in top class hurdle races at the course and ran with credit and on his only chase start around there the trip was probably too far and the drop back is certainly in his favour. |
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no relation at all to tidal bay if you ask me....that horse had jumped poorly in all his races prior to the festival, finians hasn't....anyway i was a big fan of the perospect of finians this year and got some big prices back in october, but medermit is impossible to oppose for me now...as for the "bounce" not sure where that's come from tbh......medermit jumps travels is the best hurdler in the field and will jump back in trip as he wasn't novicey before the step up in trip because he had to travel faster than he wanted too...he was just novicey....this horse can operate in a champion hurdle itself.....can't see anything living with medermit turning in.
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finians got out-stayed in the ballymore, just before the turn in he was running all over them.....finians is really classy but medermit for me has simply got too many guns.
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'the bounce factor comes into play'
 dont think you have a full understanding of this kido, |
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Tidal Bay had also performed well at the festival before.
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Signing in as a Finian's fan right here. Have been saying for a while how he does remind me of Tidal Bay in his Arkle - very worried about him getting round beforehand but also knew in my heart he was by far and away the classiest horse in the race.
That is exactly how I feel again about this one. Jumping does worry me but he will be my only bet of the entire week who has that question mark over him, so I'll not feel too gutted if he fails for that reason. I think his speed and class are above anything else in the line-up by some way so think he is well worth the risk. If he jumps well I think he'll win quite easily. |
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Loooked dodgy both in jumping and stamina at Warwick so if your on at fancy prices you have to lay off, to at least cover your stake - madness not to.
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Back it on the day with faller's insurance. I think its a big player if it gets a clear round but Medermit is my main fancy.
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By: TheFormMan
Date Joined: 05 Dec 10 Blogger: TheFormMan's blog Add contact When: 13 Mar 11 14:32 'the bounce factor comes into play' dont think you have a full understanding of this kido, not just me who's saying it. from the nick mordin website- MEDERMIT PROBABLY WON'T RECOVER IN TIME FOR CHELTENAM MEDERMIT (41) clocked a seriously fast time to win the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices Chase at Sandown. He actually ran 1.5 seconds quicker over the last two miles than they did in a very strongly run 0-145 handicap for more experienced chasers over the shorter distance later on the card. Clearly Medermit is a smart horse. He jumped fast and well and came from behind a fast pace to lead three out and prevail when the runner up mounted a sustained challenge which reduced his lead form three lengths to half a length at the line. Medermit had a hard race last time out too. He engaged in a lengthy duel with the runner up at the end of a very strongly run high class race. So I'm dubious about him recovering from this additional big effort in the 38 days remaining to the Arkle. The Scilly Isles tends to be a strongly run affair that takes a big effort to win. So it's not surprising that just one of the eighteen winners that's gone on to run at the Cheltenham Festival has scored. This was Young Hustler, a horse that seemed able to take any amount of racing. He won the RSA Chase at the big meeting. beware the bouncy horses at cheltenham! |
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Medermit is a stayer. Will stay on. If Finian's jumps well he wins from the front.
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mythical prince
all the above may be so.....but that isn't anything to do with the bounce factor....that's just a horse having a hard race and not recovering from it.....the bounce factor is to do with a horse coming back from a long break and being so revved up himself for that first run...that he takes it all out of himself and is left flat for his next run. |
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medermit isn't a stayer in this world....in fact his 2 runs over further have shown him to be quite the opposite.
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Mdermit may just decide he dont fancy it ...... and refuse
 again !!! |
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Ok so you know the girl who looks after him do you? And you know why they put him up to 2 and a half? And you know why they're going for the Arkle now?
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Nicky was seen 20 minutes ago with a white coat and a toy stethoscope checking all his horses because he doesn't trust anyone else. He says Finian's rainbow is fine so don't worry he will run
and of course win.Medermit is rock solid and will run yet another good race and you can rely on him 100% not to win. That Ghizao jumps like a gazelle and is very scary, but this is much tougher than taking on Captain Chris when he was till wondering why the hurdles looked bigger than they did last year. Get on the Finian's he's a good thing. |
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just remember Finian's backers,it just takes one bad jump going at this pace and he will not be able to recover to win this race,both Medermit and Ghizao have been just about foot perfect at there fences,i wish you all the best of luck,you will need it
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i suggest you watch Medermits jumping in his 2m chases Formman.
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Was he foot perfect when he refused!?
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he was pretty nimble at that fence,very nifty footwork
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Good Luck trying to get him beat guys
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2/5, 2/5 and 1/7 in his chases against trees and he's 7/2 to win an Arkle.
It's a layers paradise! |
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one of those trees he beat,sorry thrashed,beat medermit
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no mention of the 2 times grade1 winner whos form has been franked several times and who can be backed at almost 3 times the price as the fav
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Poor race but have to agree that Realt Dubh has form in the book against proven horses.
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his jumping wont be an issue,but his ability will,or lack of it,and thats why he will not win,
not good enough |
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there goes any chance of a sensible discussion.
how on earth do we KNOW he aint good enough?? |
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how do you know he is not good enough evra is there a form line we can compare the english form with the irish or is it just your opinion .if you have a look at his form 2 grade chase wins with winners behind bostons angel 24 lenths behind, saludos winning again next time out it does not look bad to me ,he may not win but at the prices he looks a bit of value to me .
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His best form may yet turn out to be his run behind Jessie's Dream and, as you say, we don't know yet but that's really the point of these races over and above any other spring festival. All horses here should arrive at their peak whereas in a few weeks at Aintree and Punchestown that's not always the case.
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its not just about having form lines between horses boys,if you cant tell through visual impression that Medermit and Ghizao are better than RD then quite frankly you should not be betting,i have yet to rad a single post that tells me that you have the first idea about racing budd
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one of those trees he beat,sorry thrashed,beat medermit
Yes, over 2m 5f. The Arkle isn't run over that distance. And he received weight off Hell's Bay. If you think beating Hell's Bay receiving weight is the hallmark of an Arkle winner then that's your business. |
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fair point,but what distance is Medermits best form at?
i dont think that is Arkle winning form,just pointing out he has beaten a horse that beat Medermit.To be honest i aint sure i have seen Arkle winning form anywhere,not concrete anyway,but FR has been running over 2m all season,and think he will prove to be a class act over fences.Just hope it starts tomorrow!! |
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formman,i aint at all bothered what you think about my posts.For you to bother having a go at someone on here cos they disagree with you shows you up to be a tad stupid to be honest.
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True enough, there's no real high-class 2m chasing form in Medermit's book. But if you like the stats then he meets all the main criteria and has mixed it at the highest level as a hurdler and a decent level at chasing. He's also jumped exceptionally (last time out) which isn't something Finian's Rainbow has done.
Anyway, good luck. |
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come on guys, be nice, its christmas tommorow!
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yeh his hurdling is good level,i agree.i also think that FR jumped pretty well in his first couple of races when allowed to run more prominent.I do think as well that Medermit jumping was a lot better in his last run but was that cos it was longer,and he had a bit more time at his fencing??,or is he now just a lot better jumper full stop.
Not sure myself,and certainly not confident enough to back him at the price. |
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there was only one reason why medermit ran at plumpton imo and that was to give him the experience of jumping downhill at pace so it has to be of some concern that he made one of his most serious jumping errors at the 9th at plumpton (one of the downhill fences) in a 2m chase - to this extent bud has a point and i think its rose coloured spectacles if this is ignored completely
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Happy christmas Myth,and good luck to you too Baracouda.
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