Went into studying the Champion Hurdle thinking Hurricane Fly would be a max lay

welcome to my world.  Think we will see a superstar

If there is a six-length winner of the race, there is only one horse that could provide such a sparkling performance, and that is Hurricane Fly. Strangely enough, I don't think he'll win as he's got several questions to answer but he is undoubtedly, a top-rank hurdler. One I have strong doubts about is Peddlers Cross though just over a year ago, I wouldn't have taken 1000 for this event, as however much he impressed me at Haydock, I just couldn't envisage him as being a top-class two-mile hurdler. I was obviously wrong as he obviously is, but to what extent? To me, he has always looked a stayer and also the type that would improve for fencing. Another thing worth considering is that this race is not always won by the best horse, or the one that's really suited to two miles and is blessed with speed - for me, Peddlers Cross doesn't fit the bill in any of those departments, but that's not to say it will definitely prevent him from winning - at the prices, I just don't fancy him and he's the weakest link of the top four in the betting. There are going to be many that will be pissed off with those comments as he's very popular with a lot of people on here.

Personally I can't see how Peddlers Cross can win the race; I can't see how he can have a race to suit without benefiting, dare I say it, classier horses in the process! I am confident he can run a place however, he'll be staying on up the hill, could easily run 2nd or 3rd past beaten horses!
The closer it gets the more confident I feel of Menorah, I think he's got everything in his locker to deal with whatever the race throws up, something im not sure can be said of others, most notably Hurricane Fly! My only concern is Binocular, because Henderson knows how to have him spot on for this race and I think in many ways he's become the forgotten horse of the race! I half expect to be stood their at 3.25 on Tuesday thinking, 'oh yeah, that was obviously really!' as he's hoses up again!
It's so tricky, but so brilliant for it, I love the race because it's going to come down to such intricacies and anyone who loves nothing more than to get properly stuck in to every angle of a race must feel the same!

half length will do mate...I hope Hurricane Fly proves himself to be as good as I think he is, he'll need to be to beat this lot! epic race in store, cherish  it!

I agree about Peddlers Cross not being good enough ( unless it comes up soft) and he was the only one from the front of the betting I put a line through.

The thing with Hurricane Fly is it's very hard to tie his form in with any other runner. The only kind of line
I could find were the two times HF met Go Native he thrashed him 10 lengths both times, yet Go Native did beat Binocular in the Christmas hurdle. Not sure how reliable that will prove to be.

When you look at the other main players they all tie in together.

Menorah  with Oscar whisky and Dunguib and Binocular with Peddlers and Khyber Kim.

Hurricane Fly does have the look of a 'win-or-bust' bet, but as you say if one horse wins the race six lengths it would have to be him.

It's nice to see that there are other aficionados really relishing this race and imagining all kinds of possible scenarios. It's strange that as the race nears, people (for differing reasons) get more confident or more itchy about their selections they've been with over the months. It really pissed me off earlier today seeing those sprinklers on at Cheltenham (on CH4) as I've made no secret of the fact I think Clerk's Choice & Overturn could have provided a shock. I'm starting to get a bit of a reality check now after the watering but I still haven't a clue who's gonna win as there are so many question marks about them all. One thing's for sure, I'm gonna enjoy a magnificent race and whoever wins will be saluted by me as a worthy champion, as this is a quality renewal.

this is why i love the cheltenham festival so many opinions and so many top class horses all with a chance of winning! ive got to say of all the past few years ive attended, this is the most open champs hurdle ive seen and its all down to how the race is ran and if horses perform to there max on the day! if binocular is at his peak then he'l take some stopping and he also he loves a left handed track which he hasnt had much this season....personally i'll be looking elsewhere khyber kim gets my vote  took 20/1 100 eachway if runs to potential then a place/win is a possibility good luck lads!

Yeah I looked at the Go Native angle, but how many lengths did Binocular beat him at Cheltenham in last year's race, and you have to remember that Binocular has one race a season...this race, Henderson couldn't give a crap about the Christmas Hurdle, it's just another prep as far as he's concerned!!

I think Menorah can run away with it; I think he's got everything, and I think he's still improving!
Hurricane Fly is the one id put a line through; im not going to crab what he's done, im just not into backing horses I can't get a definite opinion of! Cue at 10 length romp!

people writing off peddlers cross do so at their peril. his win at aintree last year had champion hurdle written all over it and he'll be bang there.

incidentally don't like menorah at all- the fact that he hasn't had a run this calendar year is a big negative in my eyes.

Its interesting that OP thought he had a max lay on the cards and after thorough study has come out with the opposite view. So many people have such trenchant views on this race and the particular horses they fancy or don't fancy and are not for turning on their views no matter what.
I am such a person and my view is that anyone who lays Hurricane Fly needs to start spending more quality time with the kids.
He will blow them away on Tuesday

Mr.Mischief - I've a suspicion that many people think exactly the same as I do on this forum about Hurricane Fly, in that he's by far the most naturally talented horse in the field, but that's no guarantee that he will be winning on Tuesday. He's never been in a race on an undulating track, with fast ground and an end-to-end gallop! I like EVIDENCE and he's not the full package YET! I remember how he absolutely bladdered Go Native at the last flight two years ago and then that horse won the Supreme with a little up his sleeve - with the benefit of subsequent events to judge him by, he looked as good a prospect, as I'd ever seen! He's undoubtedly a top-rank hurdler but whether he's a Champion Hurdler remains to be seen. Furthermore, he's got some decent horses standing in his way that will prove better at two miles, in small fields with no pace, on bottomless ground to boot, than Solwhit. I'm a fan of Solwhit and strangely enough, I'd have thought with a bit of cut in the ground, a big field and a sustained pace, he had the makings of a Champion Hurdle winner himself! He's a quality horse and not just the 'yardstick' as he's recently become perceived as - he'll prove it again.....of that I'm sure. At the moment though, in small fields with little pace (16f - 20f) on tough ground, Hurricane Fly comfortably has his measure, regardless of tactics. He's a fabulous hurdler and I'd like to see him become a REAL Champion Hurdler, but I still have doubts as to whether he's got it in him, even though at the moment he looks to have everything in his arsenal. FWIW, I could name 10 hurdlers (within one minute) who were better than actual 'champions' over the last 30 years, that few serious pundits would disagree with.

You have to go back to Alderbrook (whose only previous hurdle race was the Kingwell at Wincanton) in 1995 for the last winner of the race who didn't have previous course experience of some kind.

Couldn't back Hurricane Fly in this with stolen money really. Only once has it run in a field of more than 11 runners (when hosing up in it's maiden at Pinchestown). Horses like Menorah are used to the requirements of large field competitive races at an undulating track and that experience will prove (I believe) crucial.

The 6.2 us a reasonable lay for me as is the 2.4 place odds. Menorah and Binocular I am sure will finish ahead of HF unless they are brought down or go wrong somehow, and with Peddlers Cross, Khyber Kim, Oscar Whisky and even Dunguib having decent course form that HF doesn't have I reckon the place lay is the way to go.

You have to go back to April 2009 to see Hurricane Fly's last 6+ length victory. His biggest recent success has been 3 1/2 lengths over Solwhit. His races in Ireland have effectively been two horse races, HF versus Solwhit.

Can't see why he'd suddenly be able to pull out a 6 length thrashing of the best that England has to offer. In his last few races, whilst winning reasonably comfortably, once hitting the front, he's maintained whatever advantage he built up rather than extending it.

He's not raced at the festival cos hes been injured , there is no reason to think he wont handle the course or any pace thats thrown at him .
He achieved his best speed fig last time against solwhit and that was the fastest  the mullins trained beast has had to go .
Fast / slow , HURRICANE FLY is a good price at 6.2

Hurricane Fly could literally be anything,but if every horse the Irish say is a superstar turned out to be one then the English would never win anything!!
Yep,he could be but i aint taking the odds available to find out.

He's surely a good bet if menorah is a lower price .
menorah hasn't beat much yet -
Won the greatwood off 151 - nothing exceptional

If you fancy Menorah it may be a good idea to have an EW double with Cue Card. Both should run their race, and an easy win for Cue Card will give the Menorah form a frank.

go native hurt himself at the 2nd hurdle last year, i wouldn't look to much into his race.

dwm767
12 Mar 11 22:58 Joined: 07 May 06 | Topic/replies: 472 | Blogger: dwm767's blog
Yeah I looked at the Go Native angle, but how many lengths did Binocular beat him at Cheltenham in last year's race, and you have to remember that Binocular has one race a season...this race, Henderson couldn't give a crap about the Christmas Hurdle, it's just another prep as far as he's concerned!!

I think Menorah can run away with it; I think he's got everything, and I think he's still improving!
Hurricane Fly is the one id put a line through; im not going to crab what he's done, im just not into backing horses I can't get a definite opinion of! Cue at 10 length

G'wann the FLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!![smiley:crazy]