***Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Preview***

The second handicap I've got properly stuck into and one I think that represents one of the best betting propositions in handicaps of week at the moment.

The Statistics

1) RPRs

a) Shown best RPR over fences this season

The obvious reason for this is because we need an improving horse to win such a competitive handicap. In some races at the Festival like the FWKM and Pertemps older horses often bounce back but this is not the case in the Grand Annual.

2) Weight/ OR

a) OR 134 or below
b) 10st 11 or below

To win at the festival you'd usually have to have around 10lbs in hand over the handicapper. It's easier for a horse to do this further down the weights.

3) Runs

a) Max 3 runs season (unless novice)
b) Max 12 Chase starts
c) Max 4 two mile chase finishes

You want something that hasn't hard a hard season and is also relatively unexposed over the larger obstacles and hence the handicapper hasn't had a full chance to get to grips with them.

4) Course

a) Proven can handle the track.

Course form is always said to be key at Cheltenham and this race is no exception.

5) Distance

a) Won over 2 miles
b) Best RPR over 16/17f
c) Shown form over slightly further

Much like the Arkle you want a horse who has both top form at 2 miles but has also shown that they can stay a bit further.

6) Wins

a) Not won a handicap chase
b) Not won a class2+ chase

Interestingly 7 of the last 10 winners had not won a handicap chase before and 8 of the last 10 winners had won a chase no higher than Class 2. So I would slightly favour horses who have shown their hand in such races yet.

7) Lifetime

a) Won a class 2 or placed in Class A.

8) Experience

a) 1st/2nd Season Chaser

Linked to number of runs over fences, you of course want a horse who's still relatively unexposed.

9) Handicap Mark

a) If run in handicaps before, not running off an all time high mark

The only horse in the last 10 years to be running off a higher mark than they ever have before (apart from those making handicap debut) was Fadoudal Du Cochet who was running off 1lb higher. However, this was in a race in Ireland and considering Irish horses are usually rated higher by the English handicapper you could say that this doesn't qualify as being a 'higher' mark.

The Results

A relatively strong stats race with 8 of the last 10 winners scoring 13+ out of 15. The two exceptions were St Pirran and Fadoudal Du Cochet who both won Grade 2 over hurdles and were running off 130 and 131 respectively. There doesn't seem to be anything of that quality lurking down the weights in this year's renewal.

14 - Pepe Simo
13 - Shoreacres, Keki Buku

Novices have won 11 of the last 29 renewals (including last 2) and all 3 of these fall into that category.

Selection: Shoreacres - 1.5pt E/W 12/1

Of three the most solid option is Shoreacres and I still feel there's plenty of mileage in his price of 12/1. He was a very smart bumper performer with the pinnacle of his career being a 4th in the Champion Bumper beaten just under 9l. He performed to a similar standard during his hurdle career culminating in a 12l defeat in the Supreme Novices once again showing his liking for the course.

He's taken a while to get his act together over fences but there has been definite promise in his last 2 starts. On his final start last year he fell when going far better for Tanks For That off level weights (gets 7lbs now) and this year he opened up with a 28l win at Taunton. That day he beat a 140 rated chaser Qozak (4/4 at Taunton before that defeat) with a further 60l defeat back to the 3rd. He was only raised 2lbs for that to a very generous mark of 135 which leaves him off a feather weight of 10st 3 at the moment. Also his trainer Brendan Powell has come out and said he was only 80% fit that day. The fact that AP looks to retain the ride alone means that it is likely he'll be far shorter come race day.

He's an unexposed novice chaser (former smart novice hurdler) who's shown a liking for the course and runs off a feather weight with the Champion Jockey on board. To me that sounds like a Grand Annual winner in a nutshell and should be much nearer favouritism. He's my largest bet so far in the handicaps along with Junior in the Kim Muir at 16s and 12s.

I wouldn't put anyone off Pepe Simo at 16s and Keki Buku at 25s but there has to be jumping worries over the former and I just think Shoreacres has a touch of class more than Keki Buku.

Tanks for That is a horrible price being as short as 5/1. He's best fresh and has had a 48 day break which is more or less the same as he had when he flopped last time. Even so he's still up 7lbs for a defeat when everything was ideal for him that day. Shoreacres looked like he was going to beat him at Plumpton yet he's twice the price. I just can't understand his position at the top of the market at all (only won 1 out of 8 over fences) and is surely just there because of his trainer.
Similar thoughts apply for Anquetta who may have just shown his hand a bit too much in his last two starts with back to back handicap wins. I'msingingtheblue needs a flatter track to be seen at his best (get him in the Red Rum at Aintree please). The Irish pair of Lastoftheleaders and Peak Raider are respected but I really don't see too many horses that can trouble an in form Shoreacres.

GL EC

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