The in-running angle at Cheltenham.

A lot of people on here complain about betfair, and all the strange decisions they make, but I think it's fair to say
they've transformed betting in this country, and not least in the way that in-play betting has now become this huge thing.

Quite simply in play betting is an invaluable part of an punter's amoury these days. If we go back 20 odd years, then you could only bet with bookmakers at bad prices, you had to pay 10 percent betting tax, and there was certainly no possibility of laying off your selection during the race
to lock in a profit whatever happens. Now bookmakers are far more competitive with the prices and special offers that they give out so it's had a knock-on affect as well.

The cheltenham festival is likely to encapsulate all the agonising possibilities and dramas that inrunning betting will throw up.  so many fortunes will transform and be lost or won up that tough prestbury park hill.  Who can forget harchibald matching at 1.01 and still getting beat in the champion hurdle a few years back? (admittedly the betfair inrunning markets were in their infancy back then.)

anyway below i've given a rough guide to in-running possibilities that the main races may throw up.


SUPREME:

the main one in this that the in-running players will be looking to either take on or get behind is of course CUE CARD. this horse travels very well during it's races although for me doesn't seem to find that much off the bridle. If at the top of the hill it's hacking all over them, and everything else is being ridden, it's price will collapse very quickly.

However if something else is able to put it up to CUE CARD I can see him being outbattled up the hill. given this is the first race and plenty of punters will be almost overcome with excitement, I can see that he could trade very short indeed even if he ends up losing. personally I would not recommend laying CUE CARD before the race given the high likelihood that he will trade at odds on at some point during the contest.

Advice: lay CUE CARD inrunning at approx 1.5

ARKLE CHASE:

One of the very interesting runners here is FINIANS RAINBOW. given it's erractic display of jumping at warwick last time,  a lot of it's inrunning price will depend on what sort of rhythm it gets into early and how it jumps the first couple of fences. if it settles and jumps the first two well I can see the price collapsing. if it makes even a semblance of an error though, many will take the view that it's jumping will worsen as the contest takes shape and look to take it on.

One of the obvious front runners here is DAN BREEN. the arkle is normally run at a hectic tempo and I would expect this one to be at the head of affairs. If it gets an easy lead DAN BREEN could well be dangerous. we saw at sandown last time that it managed to kick again off the bend, and although it struggled to last up the hill, to give a high-class horse a lot of rope could be dangerous.

if DAN BREEN is anywhere near the lead, which seems very likely, then I can see a lay of around 5 or 6 getting taken very easily, which will ensure a free bet on the horse and the possibility of laying some more off at shorter prices. the key with front-runners is that while there price will come in when they are on the lead, generally speaking they will collapse even more at the business end of the race, as inplaying punters often panic at that stage. So don't try to get out too early.

actually to my mind it's a huge advantage to be a front-runner, particularly at the cheltenham festival where there is likely to be a great deal of scrimmaging in behind, especially in the novice races. of course wizened in running players are aware of this and if DAN BREEN gets an easy lead then his price is likely to halve very quickly to something in single figures. However to my mind even this may represent some value as it really is such an advantage to have the lead. theres also the possible prescence of STAGECOACH PEARL, however, who has been know to blaze a trail.

MEDERMIT is a high-class stalking horse and is likely to travel very well throughout the contest. He could well be a back to lay.


Recommendation: back to lay MEDERMIT and DAN BREEN.

CHAMPION HURDLE:

the main contenders in this can be split into two categories. on the one hand you have the "battlers" they being MENORAH, and PEDDLERS CROSS.
on the other hand you have the high class cruisers, they being BINOCULAR, and HURRICANE FLY.

I don't really see the point of backing MENORAH or PEDDLERS CROSS now. at some point during the champion hurdle they may well be getting pushed along, which will make the price drift . Ok you could make the point the inplaying public are wise to this, which is true, but during the heat of the battle at cheltenham I expect that cool and objective decisions will be hard to come by..

But certainly if they are anywhere near the lead jumping the last they become very dangerous indeed. in fact putting in a back at double the starting odds on both seem a reasonable idea. PEDDLERS CROSS will be ridden up with the pace but we saw in last years neptune how he was outpaced at some point before staying on to win.

However theres a question mark over MENORAH for me, which is that he hasn't had a run in the calendar year. Last year I was keen to dismiss this, as the same stat applied to my main fancy go native. however go native ran so flat there so that stat sticks in my mind and i'm rather suspicious that they can get such a big horse as MENORAH fully fit at home. thats one of the obvious drawback of these kind of strategies. that your horse runs so flat (like go native last year) that theres never a chance to get out in running. so be careful.

While it might arguably be hard to see HURRICANE FLY winning a ding-dong battle with the likes of MENORAH or PEDDLERS CROSS up the hill, it's quite possible that from a punters perspective he might not need to. this horse travels like a superstar and I can see his price collapsing as in particular the irish inrunning players jump over themselves to get onboard as the roar goes up from the crowd when he's shown on the big screen and we can all see how well he's going. I'll be surprised if HURRICANE FLY doesn't trade very short inrunning at some point.

Recommendation: back to lay HURRICANE FLY in running (put up lays at around evens, 1.5 and 1.3 and sit back and have a cigar!) or altenatively, back MENORAH or PEDDLERS CROSS at twice their starting odds inplay (for example, if PEDDLERS CROSS starts at 8 put in a back at 16s)

anyway that's enough as far as day one is concerned I shall be back later with some more advice! [;)]